88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #1 Posted September 28, 2016 Long and boring sounding title not withstanding, a few days ago I started wondering about how much damage carriers actually do per hit. This came about from a battle in my Lexington where I scored 5 bomb hits on a Destroyer for a potential damage of 54,000 but only got around 7,500. So as I am in a statistics course I decided to do the statistics on how much damage carriers apply to target per hit. My hope is that I can generate the 'average damage' for the carrier aircraft so that both carrier captains and surface vessels have an idea on how much damage they can expect from an air attack. After recruiting a few friends I have come up with some initial results. Carriers seem to only apply about 23 - 25% of their max bomb damage and somewhere between 70 - 75% of their torpedo damage. However as a selection of 8 games from two carriers per nation is no where near enough data points for any kind of useful findings. Thus I would like to request your assistance in getting more data points. To submit your data either send a screen capture of the Detailed Report screen with the carrier's name and max bomb and torpedo damage for the game or a link to a google drive spread sheet with the following data: Carrier name, max bomb damage for the game, number of bombs hit, damage done by bombs, max torpedo damage for the game, number of torpedoes hit, damage done by torpedoes to harberinger@gmail.com with the subject Carrier Data . As I get more data I hope to be able to come up with the average damage done for each bomb and torpedo that hits a target per tier and carrier. I will post updates as time goes on. Suggestions and comments are welcome. For the current data set follow the link here --> Current Data Set 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
797 [PSV] Personator Privateers 5,523 posts 6,129 battles Report post #2 Posted September 28, 2016 Interesting... I'll try & remember about this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
227 devastator5000 Members 1,719 posts 4,106 battles Report post #3 Posted September 28, 2016 Would you like my Lexington match where I did about 7k damage with 0 potential damage? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
4,616 [-K-] Edgecase [-K-] Members 6,122 posts 29,352 battles Report post #4 Posted September 28, 2016 (edited) Here are some facts you should take into account when building your expected value model -- you might decide to account for them, or just hope that they're normally distributed and average out in the long run. Ships have variable levels of torpedo protection The TPS (Torpedo Protection System) on the belts of most battleships T6+ reduces incoming torpedo damage if they hit the "bulges" on the side of the ship. Mitigation% differs by ship, and can be as high as 40-50%. The same ships will take full damage if they get hit on parts of the ship not covered by the TPS, like the bow or stern. Bombs hit different parts of ships Armor on the tops of ships are not uniform. Bombs that hit the angled faces of some heavily armored turrets will do no damage, for instance. Not all hits deplete the "ship HP" pool. Certain large modules such as primary armaments actually have their own HP pools, so even armor-defeating hits to those will often not take away any from the ship's main HP bar Damage saturation messes everything up Ship sections eventually run low or out of HP, at which point further damage to those sections is greatly reduced or even ignored Good luck to you! Edited September 28, 2016 by Edgecase 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
162 SG_ONeill Alpha Tester 922 posts 5,325 battles Report post #5 Posted September 28, 2016 Ah, noble adventurer. I see you have accepted the challenge of investigating the turbulent storm known as CVs, despite the great risk of your discoveries going unheeded by the masses. May RNGesus show you mercy on your endeavor. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #6 Posted September 29, 2016 Ah, noble adventurer. I see you have accepted the challenge of investigating the turbulent storm known as CVs, despite the great risk of your discoveries going unheeded by the masses. May RNGesus show you mercy on your endeavor. While the challenge may be great it is one I chose my self, thus I am well committed to it. My RNGesus guide us. o7 Here are some facts you should take into account when building your expected value model -- you might decide to account for them, or just hope that they're normally distributed and average out in the long run. Ships have variable levels of torpedo protection The TPS (Torpedo Protection System) on the belts of most battleships T6+ reduces incoming torpedo damage if they hit the "bulges" on the side of the ship. Mitigation% differs by ship, and can be as high as 40-50%. The same ships will take full damage if they get hit on parts of the ship not covered by the TPS, like the bow or stern. Bombs hit different parts of ships Armor on the tops of ships are not uniform. Bombs that hit the angled faces of some heavily armored turrets will do no damage, for instance. Not all hits deplete the "ship HP" pool. Certain large modules such as primary armaments actually have their own HP pools, so even armor-defeating hits to those will often not take away any from the ship's main HP bar Damage saturation messes everything up Ship sections eventually run low or out of HP, at which point further damage to those sections is greatly reduced or even ignored Good luck to you! First off thanks for the well wishing. Now for business, I fully expect the higher tiers to have a lower application rate with torpedoes then at the lower tiers. Around tiers six or seven all ships have torpedo belts except for destroyers and Russian cruisers. So tiers six through ten should have lesser torpedo application as most ships then have torpedo bulges that reduce incoming damage with Yamato being the top (if I'm not mistaken) at 55% reduction to torpedo damage. While I do not believe that any number of torpedoes will average out torpedo protection. I am hoping it turns out the average application is equal to 100% - the average torpedo damage mitigation for the tier. Then it would imply that torpedoes will apply all damage if not stopped by bulges or other damage reductions from the ship's armor which would also be valuable to know. This is also why I would like to have data from every tier of carrier so that I can compile the averages for every tier independently. As for bombs due to it being a dispersion that you lay on the target ship and the carrier has little control over where exactly, and from what angle these bombs hit I am hoping that over hundreds of bombs trends start to from. Which is where the real interesting data will start to form. Also I would like to take into account of how many modules damaged or destroyed per bomb hit however that is not information I could see with in easy reach of us the players so I am sticking to ship HP bar damage. However I would also like to note that since I upgraded to the thousand pound bombs in my Lexington I seem to be destroying lots more AA guns and disabling more modules. However as modules can also be destroyed by torpedoes, and the fore mentioned lack of clear data points I feel it is better to get as many data points as possible and hope that it all gets averaged out. Yet I wouldn't rule out the destruction of AA emplacements and damage to critical components as playing a role in lessening the total damage application of bombs. Lastly for damage saturation much like with the bombs I don't see an easy to implement way of collecting good data when it comes to avoiding or hitting saturated areas nor do I know of an easy way for a carrier captain to avoid damage saturated areas of a target vessel. So once again I am hoping that with enough points that it all will get averaged out into a nice distribution. Yet knowing that the world we live in is anything but perfect I have no doubt that damage saturation will play a role in the over arching theme. But as of now with a total of 16 games it is impossible to tell. Once again thanks for the well wishing and I hope that this helps clarify what it is I am hoping to accomplish. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #7 Posted September 29, 2016 Interesting... I'll try & remember about this Thank you, hopefully people send in data so that I can create a useful report. Would you like my Lexington match where I did about 7k damage with 0 potential damage? Honestly right now I would like very point of data I can get. As for 0 potential damage I find that quite interesting as then you would have done your 7k damage with out dropping a bomb or torpedo at a hostile ship not impossible if you rammed or your secondaries scored some good hits. The potential damage I am looking for is the same as the bomb or torpedo's max damage roll. Thus if you have the upgraded dive bombers and scored 1 hit to do 7k damage you would have a damage application of around 70% as that is 7k / 10k. As 10,800 damage is the max that the bomb could roll. However based on my current small data set I would guess you hit two or three bombs to do that 7k damage as the current application percentage for bombs is around the low to mid 20's. To clarify this is assuming it is all bomb damage. If you lit a fire then some of that is fire damage, or hit with a torpedo then some of that is torpedo damage. If you are talking about the potential damage received then it means that no one shot at you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1,000 [HINON] Carrier_Lexington [HINON] Members 4,023 posts 5,071 battles Report post #8 Posted October 2, 2016 Okay, I will start contributing to your data. I've been meaning too, but I never remembered to. (although a gift of doubloons would be nice... ) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #9 Posted October 4, 2016 Okay, I will start contributing to your data. I've been meaning too, but I never remembered to. (although a gift of doubloons would be nice... ) Thank you and I hope to see data soon. o7 I would like to give gifts but I don't have money. College sucks that way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
97 hiroshi_tea Members 426 posts 2,869 battles Report post #10 Posted October 4, 2016 Some data from tonight. I also have a lot of screenshots I can parse through for more data name max DB dmg # DB hits DB dmg max torp damage # torp hits torp dmg Langley 5400 1 0 8500 5 28322 Bogue 7500 9 14851 9867 11 67309 Bogue 7500 0 0 9867 2 10549 Hosho 0 0 0 8567 21 127795 Langley 5400 7 1491 8500 6 62702 Bogue 7500 11 24681 9867 4 28046 Saipan 10800 0 0 9867 16 100653 Ranger 7500 10 22838 9867 5 27401 Lexington 10800 19 59119 9867 12 57254 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #11 Posted October 4, 2016 So after entering your data I found an amusing discrepancy this game: Langley 5400 7 1491 8500 6 62702 Has a 122% torpedo damage application, I'm guessing you detonated someone with a torpedo. Which will provide an interesting outlier when more data comes rolling in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
97 hiroshi_tea Members 426 posts 2,869 battles Report post #12 Posted October 4, 2016 (edited) i did! kongo turned wrong and took a torp to the bow and went poof here is the remainder of the data from the screenshots in my archives Name # DB hits DB Dmg # Torp Hits Torp Dmg Hiryu 21 24375 19 105417 Saipan 14 88642 Ranger 31 26254 12 75432 Ranger 17 33376 10 60352 Ranger 30 60802 2 14039 Bogue 15 28244 15 101599 Bogue 17 33160 11 71207 Zuiho 9 10926 18 102465 Saipan 17 106778 Hosho 17 112877 Langley 9 13965 10 56595 Hosho 20 117691 Saipan 22 141695 Hiryu 31 34647 20 102843 Saipan 8 58852 Zuiho 11 11162 18 101919 Saipan 18 115463 Zuiho 8 11183 17 100621 Hosho 18 88027 Independence 14 25597 13 75575 Saipan 14 89660 Saipan 10 66382 Saipan 11 67064 Saipan 9 64080 Ranger 15 21316 7 46228 Ranger 31 42902 10 55866 Shokaku 19 10626 12 74219 Lexington 22 73176 11 73860 Edited October 4, 2016 by hiroshi_tea Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #13 Posted October 4, 2016 Thanks a lot. I'll have it added sometime soon. o7 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #14 Posted October 24, 2016 Hail all, I am back from midterms and in fact not dead. Also It turns out I got mentioned by . So keep sending in data as I still don't have enough games of any carrier to justify an analysis of any confidence. Hope to see you all out there o7 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
100 DeMatt Beta Testers 365 posts 12,391 battles Report post #15 Posted November 6, 2016 A few games I played recently: Carrier max DB damage # DB hits total DB damage max TB damage # TB hits total TB damage Shokaku 4600 3 3795 8567 2 11230 Shokaku 4600 11 9737 8567 9 43141 Lexington 10800 1 3355 9867 6 40269 Shokaku 4600 5 4554 8567 5 32495 Shokaku 4600 4 3036 8567 5 34467 Shokaku 4600 8 6913 8567 6 31208 Lexington 10800 5 16299 9867 4 22786 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
25 Caffynated Members 49 posts 1,828 battles Report post #16 Posted November 6, 2016 Carrier max DB damage # DB hits total DB damage max TB damage # TB hits total TB damage Ranger 7500 31 57233 9867 12 84725 Ranger 7500 11 18673 9867 4 26927 Ranger 7500 12 20869 9867 10 65414 Ranger 7500 28 56751 9867 8 46298 Ranger 7500 20 34957 9867 7 43661 Ranger 7500 18 41205 9867 10 62751 Ranger 7500 15 34195 9867 7 44422 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
580 [PLPTV] Ulthwey Members 1,457 posts 9,077 battles Report post #17 Posted November 6, 2016 Long and boring sounding title not withstanding, a few days ago I started wondering about how much damage carriers actually do per hit. This came about from a battle in my Lexington where I scored 5 bomb hits on a Destroyer for a potential damage of 54,000 but only got around 7,500. So as I am in a statistics course I decided to do the statistics on how much damage carriers apply to target per hit. My hope is that I can generate the 'average damage' for the carrier aircraft so that both carrier captains and surface vessels have an idea on how much damage they can expect from an air attack. After recruiting a few friends I have come up with some initial results. Carriers seem to only apply about 23 - 25% of their max bomb damage and somewhere between 70 - 75% of their torpedo damage. However as a selection of 8 games from two carriers per nation is no where near enough data points for any kind of useful findings. Thus I would like to request your assistance in getting more data points. To submit your data either send a screen capture of the Detailed Report screen with the carrier's name and max bomb and torpedo damage for the game or a link to a google drive spread sheet with the following data: Carrier name, max bomb damage for the game, number of bombs hit, damage done by bombs, max torpedo damage for the game, number of torpedoes hit, damage done by torpedoes to harberinger@gmail.com with the subject Carrier Data . As I get more data I hope to be able to come up with the average damage done for each bomb and torpedo that hits a target per tier and carrier. I will post updates as time goes on. Suggestions and comments are welcome. For the current data set follow the link here --> Current Data Set None of this is new. Ships have armor of different thickness in different areas, modules which negate damage and torpedo protection to reduce torp damage and chance of flooding. All of these reduce the amount of damage the bombs and torps do. Try manual dropping bombs onto the turrets of Iowa, you'll land all your bombs, but few (if any at all) will do any damage. Its not enough to try to just hit an enemy ship, you have to try hitting them in the right area. Aim the bombs at the deck (turrets, modules, superstructure yield less damage). Aim your torpedoes preferably so at least 1-2 hit the bow/stern of the ship where there is no torpedo belt (+ chance to immobilize if you hit the rudder AND chance to detonate if you hit areas under the turrets). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #18 Posted November 9, 2016 First off thank you DeMatt and Caffynated, your data should be entered some time Friday (11/11). Ulthwey, I'm unsure what it is you are trying to say. Yes ships have different top armor and different torpedo bulges and the bulges are in different places on different ships however that's not the only factors when it comes to damage applied to target by a bomb. Destroyers have next to zero armor and no bulges, yet in my observation they do not take full damage from every bomb and torpedo that hits them. Now damage does get 'absorbed' (for lack of a better word) by modules and damage saturation. Yes hitting weakly armored areas will cause more damage than hitting heavily armored areas, but due to the evasive nature of captains when under air attack. Hitting exactly where you want comes down to a mixture of both skill and luck biased towards luck with dive bombers and skill with torpedo bombers, again if we take my experience as a good representation of all carrier game play, which it may or may not be I have no evidence to support either way. However I do know that given enough games, with enough hits, trends will form and from those trends we can deduce things such as averages, standard deviations, etc. and from those numbers that we pulled from this data sample we can say with some degree of certainty what will happen when any bomber drops on any ship. Regardless of damage saturation, hit location, or module damage we will have an idea on what will happen. Which is the goal of this thread. If that's what you were questioning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
100 DeMatt Beta Testers 365 posts 12,391 battles Report post #19 Posted November 11, 2016 (edited) A few more matches: Carrier max DB # DB total DB max TB # TB total TB Shokaku 4600 6 4554 8567 2 10410 Shokaku 4600 8 9207 8567 9 44026 Lexington 10800 7 19602 9867 11 71806 Saipan 10800 10 24890 9867 0 0 Saipan 10800 10 20308 9867 0 0 Lexington 10800 8 18023 9867 11 75258 Lexington 10800 5 17820 9867 11 73562 Lexington 10800 7 11191 9867 9 57896 Lexington 10800 3 3618 9867 6 44739 Shokaku 4600 8 10626 8567 11 49504 13 November: And another dozen matches. Carrier max DB # DB total DB max TB # TB total TB Shokaku 4600 9 10414 8567 8 50127 Lexington 10800 5 7501 9867 4 29620 Lexington 10800 4 14256 9867 3 18139 Lexington 10800 9 22646 9867 7 43696 Saipan 10800 17 37760 9867 0 0 Saipan 10800 11 22950 9867 0 0 Saipan 10800 7 19844 9867 0 0 Lexington 10800 5 17106 9867 1 6468 Lexington 10800 12 27129 9867 7 37909 Lexington 10800 4 10692 9867 5 29966 Shokaku 4600 3 3036 8567 4 27541 Shokaku 4600 6 6043 8567 8 50369 Edited November 14, 2016 by DeMatt Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
100 DeMatt Beta Testers 365 posts 12,391 battles Report post #20 Posted January 3, 2017 New post for new patch. Carrier max DB # DB total DB max TB # TB total TB Saipan 10800 9 22741 9867 0 0 Shokaku 4600 9 8438 8567 10 53116 Lexington 10800 13 33686 9867 0 0 Lexington 10800 11 28535 9867 0 0 Lexington 10800 12 25475 9867 0 0 Shokaku 4600 4 4554 9867 2 10682 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
88 [M_L] Grathew Beta Testers 323 posts 11,017 battles Report post #21 Posted January 11, 2017 First off I'd like to thank everyone who has submitted data thus far. As the USN has 126 data points I ran the numbers on them. Here are the results (Spoiler for data table) : Average Bomb Carrier Mean StDev Langly 1,088 619 Bouge 1,810 344 Independence 2,008 347 Ranger 1,887 575 Saipan 2,365 307 Lexington 2,687 717 Average Torp Carrier Mean StDev Langly 6,833 1,596 Bouge 6,083 1,658 Independence 5,732 2,774 Ranger 6,675 744 Saipan 6,537 398 Lexington 6,494 728 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
100 DeMatt Beta Testers 365 posts 12,391 battles Report post #22 Posted January 19, 2017 First off I'd like to thank everyone who has submitted data thus far. As the USN has 126 data points I ran the numbers on them. Here are the results (Spoiler for data table) : Huh, I knew dive bomber damage was gimped by not getting AP bombs, but man, <25% of rated damage? The last of my 0.5.16 data: Carrier max DB # DB total DB max TB # TB total TB Lexington 10800 4 9927 9867 0 0 Lexington 10800 12 34141 9867 0 0 Shokaku 4600 5 5203 8567 8 39207 Lexington 10800 10 16391 9867 0 0 Saipan 10800 0 0 9867 7 49800 Saipan 10800 0 0 9867 5 33663 Lexington 10800 9 19695 9867 0 0 Lexington 10800 9 26537 9867 0 0 Lexington 10800 11 33539 9867 0 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
