Is there a "luck factor" in win rate?

[Giantsgiants]

Whenever win rate is brought up, it seems like people bring up luck as well. Do you believe that there is a luck factor when it comes to win rate? Or do you think it's completely a myth?

 

I personally am leaning on the believer side. I do think that there is some kind of luck involved in win rate. After a night of teams that get absolutely slaughtered (the enemy loses only 2 or 3 ships while we get completely annihilated), I feel like you need to pray for teammates that at least don't die quickly.

[Lampshade_M1A2]

Oh definitely. Many times you can do your part well and you'll still lose simply because of a bad team. And matchmaker is an evil thing that likes to arrange for multiple such games in a row on occasion. Matchmaker is powered off human suffering.

[Camo68]

Yes there is a luck factor involved, there are usually 12 on your side and no one person can absolutely carry a game.

 

Having said that the stronger the player the more influence they exert and this does directly contribute to a higher win rate.

[bad_arcade_kitty]

yes

it's called statistical dispersion :3

[Lampshade_M1A2]

Statistics can't explain the sadistic nature of WG matchmaking.

[mxlm]

Sure, it's a factor. But barring extreme outliers the more games you play the less of a factor it is. 

[Fog_Heavy_Cruiser_Chokai]

Yes, but the more battles you have the less luck matters. By 1,000 you will have good streaks and bad streaks but the overall WR should be evened out to your skill level with a small variation.

[Zhoyzu]

win rate is based on RNG of your 11 other team mates.

 

There isnt anything about that that isnt luck based

[FratStar4Life]

I feel like this topic has been beaten to death on the forums. Bad players will say it is luck and good players will say it is skill.

If it was luck how are there players with over a 60% solo winrate..? Could you get lucky if you win 10 out of 10 games, yes. Is it still luck though if you win 600 out of 1000 games though, no. The only constant in every game is YOU.

[Brofisticus]

There is no such thing as luck. Only the force. Seriously, why do you think so many unicum players talk about the only constant in every game? Luck will only get you so far (50%, statistically), the rest is all up to that 12th player. 

 

[CommodoreKang]

Yeah, luck is one of those things that happens in the short run.  Over the long haul, good and bad teams will average out.

[Macabe]

To a degree, yes but it's not 100% luck. You don't become a statistical outlier by luck.

[VGLance]

Don't listen to these people.  It's 100% luck.

 

50% of it is good and 50% of it is bad. ;)

[SgtBeltfed]

Luck flattens the numbers out.

Someone with a 60% win rate is probably in the top 20% of players

Someone with a 20% win rate could probably be a bot.

[Sinisstarr]

Yep which is why I only care about my KDR.

 

[meat2]

Poll does not have a "both luck and player ability play a role in player statistics" option.

[1nv4d3rZ1m]

~25% of games are won no matter what you do another ~25% of games are lost no matter what you do, the rest is what you make of them. Sure there are ups and downs, everybody gets bad days where teams wont do anything and you cant win but over the long road those matter less and less. After 1000+ battles your win rate should be pretty free of outlying effects like mm or rng and represent pretty closely what you you are achieving. 

[KTcraft]

Whenever win rate is brought up, it seems like people bring up luck as well. Do you believe that there is a luck factor when it comes to win rate? Or do you think it's completely a myth?

 

I personally am leaning on the believer side. I do think that there is some kind of luck involved in win rate. After a night of teams that get absolutely slaughtered (the enemy loses only 2 or 3 ships while we get completely annihilated), I feel like you need to pray for teammates that at least don't die quickly.

 

I think this is a loaded question.  The thing is, there is always a bit of luck.  However, the effect luck has on your overall statistics decreases as the sample size increases. 

Basically if you play only a few matches, luck has a substantially greater influence then if you play several thousand on your overall stats.

 

I vote your poll kinda blows.

[xEcho]

Lucky player checking in. Let me wave my luck all over the place...

[1nc0mp3t3nt_1]

Whenever win rate is brought up, it seems like people bring up luck as well. Do you believe that there is a luck factor when it comes to win rate? Or do you think it's completely a myth?

 

I personally am leaning on the believer side. I do think that there is some kind of luck involved in win rate. After a night of teams that get absolutely slaughtered (the enemy loses only 2 or 3 ships while we get completely annihilated), I feel like you need to pray for teammates that at least don't die quickly.

I don't believe in luck. I believe in chance which is dealt out by the all-knowing RNGesus. 

 

There is always a chance when you get into a battle queue that you will be put into a team of competent players just like there is also a chance of being put in a team of window locking puppies

[evilleMonkeigh]

The average school student easily grasps the fact that

 

the larger the sample size, the more reliable the stats

vs

the smaller the sample size, the less reliable the stats

 

So your streak of 7 losses from 10 games last night might be very bad luck.

However, losing 7000 of 10,000 games is very bad play, worse than a bot (in fact, it's possible to be a bot with a 36% WR)

 

The importance of sample size

 

You'll also find that poor players attribute their losses to "bad luck."

This is linked to the Dunning Kruger Effect, which basically says dumb people are unable to realise they are dumb. 

[vonluckner]

 

I feel like this topic has been beaten to death on the forums. Bad players will say it is luck and good players will say it is skill.

If it was luck how are there players with over a 60% solo winrate..? Could you get lucky if you win 10 out of 10 games, yes. Is it still luck though if you win 600 out of 1000 games though, no. The only constant in every game is YOU.

 

You're projecting the reality of a 60%er.

 

Average (49-50%) players aren't playing the same game as you. In the sum of all things they don't have any sense of how to win a game, but by the same gesture don't contribute so little as to be a liability. They are a zero sum. They cannot make any prediction for the outcome of a single game because they have no statistical probability to either side. In that situation it is truly luck because winning that game is entirely dependent upon simply getting a better team.

 

This is unlike your own experience of having a sense of how to influence the game flow to make a victory, and thus building statistical probability.

 

This is not to say that win rate itself is luck, just predicting the outcome of a specific game (or small set) based upon the past performance of an average player.

[CommodoreKang]

It's basically 50/50 but try to think of the glass as half full.  Any game you could win.  Any marginal game you could swing the outcome.  Sometimes you might even carry the whole team.

 

Thinking like that and then doing that is what they call making your luck.

[Snoozing_Mako]

There is a "luck factor" in win-rate, but it isn't as significant as people make it out to be.

A good "skill factor" will easily influence your stats much more significantly, and so will divisioning with other people who possess this "skill factor".

[Canadatron]

Being in a divison is considered a skill guys.