Santa Crate Question?

[Hercules_C130]

To all:

This may have been explained before, but I missed it or forgot it.  I know on the Super Containers, WG will keep track however long to guarantee you will eventually get a ship.  On the Christmas crates they started sending out the odds and guarantee when you will get a ship from them based off of how many you open.  Maybe some of you have guessed the question already by now.  I have never gotten a ship from a Santa Crate because I only open the free ones.  Does WG keep track of the number that you opened from year to year and do they carry over so that you will get a free ship eventually?

In my opinion they should just like the SCs, but I am not certain that is true.

Any help from the good people of the forums is appreciated.

C130 signing out

[MidnightPhoenix07]

I haven't seen anything explicitly stating so, but I would assume they do

[Halli_SPARTA]

Years past it was based on what you have in your inventory. I bet one year I won/gambled 6 Okhotnik's.

 

I did not realize I needed to keep one in inventory. I kept selling it so it would return in the Santa crates.

[Hercules_C130]

22 hours ago, MidnightPhoenix07 said:

I haven't seen anything explicitly stating so, but I would assume they do

Thank you for your reply, I hope you are correct.  +1

[Hercules_C130]

Thanks for the reply.  I have a friend who is a whale.  He told me that even though he does not sell ships he gets duplicates that pay him in gold after he has gotten all the ships available in Santa Crates.  +1

[MidnightPhoenix07]

23 minutes ago, Hercules_C130 said:

Thanks for the reply.  I have a friend who is a whale.  He told me that even though he does not sell ships he gets duplicates that pay him in gold after he has gotten all the ships available in Santa Crates.  +1

Make sure he knows that that (as of last year) is no longer the case. Last year’s crates gave some steel (I think?) for duplicates, not doubloons. I think the last time they really gave doubloons for duplicates was some of the first ones where it gave doubloons rather than rerolling (the Emden year).

If you had all the ships before last year and kept going, it may have been doubloons, but I’m not sure of that. 

[Woody4077]

so heres the deal with santa contianers

the odds of getting a ship are based on which containers you open, 

personally i call them small medium and large.

now one thing to note is that YES premium containers do give you better odds,

HOWEVER it does not change the fact that the "small" containers have the lowest odds of dropping a ship

where as medium has "average" odds of dropping a ship and the large have the "best" odds of dropping a ship

there is a caveat the "free" containers have very low odds of dropping a ship REGARDLESS 

of which "sized" container you get cause well....."wargaming likes money" 

in the past they did do something along the lines of if you open X amount of a small or medium or large containers

youre garunteed a ship, so long as you didn't get one, cause it would reset the counter

 

and yes what drops is based on whats in your port which is why i DO NOT advise selling a ship

REGARDLESS of which ship it is (thats why halli sparta keep getting okhotniks) and yes i know

theres some EXETREMLY bad premium ships; YES "KRISPY KREME" I'M LOOKING AT YOU

because as long, as you have say the marblehead in your port; its NOT in the list of potential ship drops

[Hercules_C130]

On 11/11/2022 at 10:36 PM, MidnightPhoenix07 said:

Make sure he knows that that (as of last year) is no longer the case. Last year’s crates gave some steel (I think?) for duplicates, not doubloons. I think the last time they really gave doubloons for duplicates was some of the first ones where it gave doubloons rather than rerolling (the Emden year).

If you had all the ships before last year and kept going, it may have been doubloons, but I’m not sure of that. 

Thanks Phoenix,

I have not talked to him about Santa Crates for awhile.

C130 signing out

[Hercules_C130]

On 11/11/2022 at 10:45 PM, Woody4077 said:

so heres the deal with santa contianers

the odds of getting a ship are based on which containers you open, 

personally i call them small medium and large.

now one thing to note is that YES premium containers do give you better odds,

HOWEVER it does not change the fact that the "small" containers have the lowest odds of dropping a ship

where as medium has "average" odds of dropping a ship and the large have the "best" odds of dropping a ship

there is a caveat the "free" containers have very low odds of dropping a ship REGARDLESS 

of which "sized" container you get cause well....."wargaming likes money" 

in the past they did do something along the lines of if you open X amount of a small or medium or large containers

youre garunteed a ship, so long as you didn't get one, cause it would reset the counter

 

and yes what drops is based on whats in your port which is why i DO NOT advise selling a ship

REGARDLESS of which ship it is (thats why halli sparta keep getting okhotniks) and yes i know

theres some EXETREMLY bad premium ships; YES "KRISPY KREME" I'M LOOKING AT YOU

because as long, as you have say the marblehead in your port; its NOT in the list of potential ship drops

Thanks Woody for the reply!  +1 

Yes I usually just took the small free crates offered and yes the numbers dictate that I have a long time to go to get a ship with them.  Last year I had read multiple posts stating that the medium crates were the best deal so I took those for my free ones.  I do not remember exactly what the odds were, but I was a couple to a few short of the guaranteed getting a ship.  That was the reason for the post.  If it carries over from year to year, I should only need a few to get a guaranteed ship this year.  I am considering getting the Large Crates this year because I should be able to get 12 of them (58 T10 with British Battlecruisers at T9 and re-running IJN DD at T9).

C130 signing out

[Ensign_Cthulhu]

On 11/11/2022 at 12:49 AM, Hercules_C130 said:

Does WG keep track of the number that you opened from year to year and do they carry over so that you will get a free ship eventually?

I don't think it carries over from year to year, nor would I expect it to. This is especially the case for the last couple of years, where there have been and will again be changes to the ships available; to wit, the Kamikazes, Gremyaschyy and Giulio Cesare are returning to Santa crates but Nikolai I is leaving all crates for the foreseeable future.

[Hercules_C130]

1 minute ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

I don't think it carries over from year to year, nor would I expect it to. This is especially the case for the last couple of years, where there have been and will again be changes to the ships available; to wit, the Kamikazes, Gremyaschyy and Giulio Cesare are returning to Santa crates but Nikolai I is leaving all crates for the foreseeable future.

Thanks Cthulhu, +1

I am afraid that is the case and then I will most likely not get a ship, but I can still hope!

C130 signing out

[MaliceA4Thought]

On 11/12/2022 at 4:36 AM, MidnightPhoenix07 said:

Make sure he knows that that (as of last year) is no longer the case. Last year’s crates gave some steel (I think?) for duplicates, not doubloons. I think the last time they really gave doubloons for duplicates was some of the first ones where it gave doubloons rather than rerolling (the Emden year).

If you had all the ships before last year and kept going, it may have been doubloons, but I’m not sure of that. 

hmmmmm  steel would be good for me,  I am a couple of k short for Plymouth and that would be worth it for me to get the crates if steel was the option rather than dubs.

Guess I am going to have to read it carefully when it comes out to check :)

Thanks for the heads up.

G

[lloyd1701]

Each Santa Crate year is its own series, so you only ever get the pity timer for that year's crates, however there are extremely rare occasions when you might obtain previous year crates such as sometimes the Summer Sale or maybe collections where the pity timer would apply.

[paradat]

On 11/10/2022 at 8:19 PM, Hercules_C130 said:

Does WG keep track of the number that you opened from year to year and do they carry over so that you will get a free ship eventually?

Hmm well there is a mercy rule, but I never even thought about the whether they accumulate from year to year.

@Ahskance, any Idea?

[Ahskance]

Just now, paradat said:

Hmm well there is a mercy rule, but I never even thought about the whether they accumulate from year to year.

@Ahskance, any Idea?

Our Santa Containers are different than last year's, so it is unlikely that they are listed under the same Account ID.

[paradat]

On 11/10/2022 at 8:19 PM, Hercules_C130 said:

To all:

This may have been explained before, but I missed it or forgot it.  I know on the Super Containers, WG will keep track however long to guarantee you will eventually get a ship.  On the Christmas crates they started sending out the odds and guarantee when you will get a ship from them based off of how many you open.  Maybe some of you have guessed the question already by now.  I have never gotten a ship from a Santa Crate because I only open the free ones.  Does WG keep track of the number that you opened from year to year and do they carry over so that you will get a free ship eventually?

In my opinion they should just like the SCs, but I am not certain that is true.

Any help from the good people of the forums is appreciated.

C130 signing out

 

1 minute ago, Ahskance said:

Our Santa Containers are different than last year's, so it is unlikely that they are listed under the same Account ID.

There you go OP ^^^^

[_KlRlTO_]

1 hour ago, Ahskance said:

Our Santa Containers are different than last year's, so it is unlikely that they are listed under the same Account ID.

Follow up question. I am going to have almost a 60% chance of pulling a ship this year. That said, I already have 50 of the ships from the easy 12% list. If the random draw tries to give me a ship I already have, will it pull another ship from that list, will it be just another random ship from any of the lists, will it bump me up to the next list (3% list), or will I get value in doubloons?

[Ahskance]

Just now, _KlRlTO_ said:

Follow up question. I am going to have almost a 60% chance of pulling a ship this year. That said, I already have 50 of the ships from the easy 12% list. If the random draw tries to give me a ship I already have, will it pull another ship from that list, will it be just another random ship from any of the lists, will it bump me up to the next list (3% list), or will I get value in doubloons?

You cannot re-draw the same ship.  If you own a ship it is removed from the "Ship Group" and all remaining options in the "Ship Group" are evenly weighted.

Example:

• Ship Group A has 5 Ships in it.
  • If none of the ships are owned by the player,
    • each ship has 20% to be selected if "Ship Group A" is rolled.
  • If one of the ship is owned by a player,
    • each remaining ship (4) has 25% to be selected if "Ship Group A" is rolled
  • If all of the ships is owned by the player,
    • The Ship Group is disabled and other ship groups proportionally absorb the chance to be rolled

Example of Portional Distribution:

• Ship Group A has a 10% chance to be rolled
• Ship Group B has a 4% chance to be rolled
• Ship Group C has a 1% chance to be rolled
   
• If Ship Group A is disabled from a player owning all the ships, the 10% is distributed proportionally across the other two groups.
  • B will gain 4/5ths of the 10%.
  • C will gain 1/5th of the 10%
• Ship Group B will have a 12% chance to be rolled (4% + (10% x .8) = 4% + 8% = 12%)
• Ship Group C will have a 3% chance to be rolled (1% + (10% x .2) = 1% + 2% = 3%)

The % chance of rolling a Ship Group per container remains the same at 15% overall Ship Group chance.

[_KlRlTO_]

@Ahskance Thanks! That was exactly what I asked for.

[darqsyde242]

So, basically, it's a good idea to "buy" up any low tier commons, to increase the chance of Rares being dropped.

Also, quick math from side research, says one ship from a Supercontainer  @500 days (assuming all dailies/TYL).

addendum: Yes, I know that's not how probability works, but it sets expectations.

[paradat]

26 minutes ago, darqsyde242 said:

So, basically, it's a good idea to "buy" up any low tier commons, to increase the chance of Rares being dropped.

Also, quick math from side research, says one ship from a Supercontainer  @500 days (assuming all dailies/TYL).

addendum: Yes, I know that's not how probability works, but it sets expectations.

Yep. Every year I make sure I have all of the ships from group A. I then leave several tier 8 ships alone and try to get them on sale at the end of the year using the Santa crates.

This has worked out very well over the years but it is important to want the added loot. If you are only doing this for ships it is probably better to buy them outright as they come out. The larger your fleet is the better it works.  

[Pugilistic]

On 11/11/2022 at 11:10 PM, Hercules_C130 said:

Thanks for the reply.  I have a friend who is a whale.  He told me that even though he does not sell ships he gets duplicates that pay him in gold after he has gotten all the ships available in Santa Crates.  +1

I think the last year that there were duplicate drops that yielded doubloons was 2018, and the ship drops were still pretty generous. Whichever year it was, I had around 3/4 of the premiums available, dropped some more and still dropped enough duplicates to get over 100k doubloons. 

That was a golden time, things have really tightened up since. 

[lloyd1701]

1 hour ago, darqsyde242 said:

So, basically, it's a good idea to "buy" up any low tier commons, to increase the chance of Rares being dropped.

Also, quick math from side research, says one ship from a Supercontainer  @500 days (assuming all dailies/TYL).

addendum: Yes, I know that's not how probability works, but it sets expectations.

You have to buy ALL of the largest tier though, so if you're going the megawhale strategy it makes the most sense to just buy the T5's and maybe the T6's since they are a lot cheaper than the T7's.

[iDuckman]

On 11/10/2022 at 10:19 PM, Hercules_C130 said:

To all:

This may have been explained before, but I missed it or forgot it.  I know on the Super Containers, WG will keep track however long to guarantee you will eventually get a ship.  On the Christmas crates they started sending out the odds and guarantee when you will get a ship from them based off of how many you open.  Maybe some of you have guessed the question already by now.  I have never gotten a ship from a Santa Crate because I only open the free ones.  Does WG keep track of the number that you opened from year to year and do they carry over so that you will get a free ship eventually?

In my opinion they should just like the SCs, but I am not certain that is true.

 

The drop rate for Small Gifts is 2.5% and the Mercy Rule is 100 gifts.  It's no surprise that you've never received a ship.  Mega Gifts are the way to go. 

 

5 hours ago, _KlRlTO_ said:

Follow up question. I am going to have almost a 60% chance of pulling a ship this year. That said, I already have 50 of the ships from the easy 12% list. If the random draw tries to give me a ship I already have, will it pull another ship from that list, will it be just another random ship from any of the lists, will it bump me up to the next list (3% list), or will I get value in doubloons?

 

5 hours ago, _KlRlTO_ said:

@Ahskance Thanks! That was exactly what I asked for.

https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Event_Containers#Santa.27s_Gifts

There may have been small changes in the ship lists. 

[Hercules_C130]

+1 to all who replied

Thank you all for the responses and information.

C130 signing out