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Khafni

TYL SC Results for Three Patch Cycles

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I selected only Try Your Luck containers for patches 11.7, 11.8, and 11.9 just to see what percentage of them were Super Containers. NOTE: These results do NOT include reward or monthly SC's. 

From the Wiki - 

How Standard containers become Super containers

Each player account starts with a progress counter that advances from zero to 100. A Super container drop number between zero and 100 is randomly generated. When the counter exceeds the drop number, the container that advanced the counter past the number becomes a Super container. When the counter reaches 100, it is reset and a new drop number is randomly generated.[1]

The counter value and drop number are persistent across log-ins.

Obtaining one of four of the types of Standard container { More Economic Bonuses, More Signals, More Camouflages, More Coal } advances the counter by 1.5. Try Your Luck or the receipt of a Small container advances the counter by 4.5.

Thus there is no "percent roll" to obtain a Super container in place of a Standard container. Each of the four Standard container types advances the counter at a steady pace. Since Try Your Luck advances the counter much more quickly, it is more likely to encounter the drop point and become a Super container. Nevertheless, by simulating a very large number of Standard containers, we find that 4.5% of TYL and 1.5% of other Standard containers do, on average, become Super containers.

My results were a bit above average, overall.

11.7 - 67 containers collected, 4 were SC. 5.97% SC drop rate.

11.8 - 77 containers collected, 5 were SC. 6.49% SC drop rate.

11.9 - 68 containers collected, 2 were SC. 2.94% SC drop rate.

Overall424 containers collected, 22 were SC. 5.19% SC drop rate.

Admittedly, three patches worth of containers doesn't necessarily make a large sample size. I just wanted to see what drop rates I got and share the info,

What was in the containers?

Spoiler
Patch 11.7 - TYL
50 Ship XP +200%
100 November Foxtrot
15,000 Coal
50 Credits +40%
Patch 11.8 - TYL
1,000 Doubloons
50 Commander XP +200%
1,000 Doubloons
100 India X-Ray
7 Days Premium
Patch 11.9 - TYL
1,000 Doubloons
100 India X-Ray

I got lucky with the doubloons! Enough, with previous "free earnings" to pay for the remaining six stages of the PR dockyard!

Of course, YMMV!

Edited by Khafni
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When you say containers collected,  are you also taking in the containers from rewards that dropped as well?

Because those count towards the 100.

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1 hour ago, Pretty_Rkless said:

When you say containers collected,  are you also taking in the containers from rewards that dropped as well?

Because those count towards the 100.

No, only the daily containers. No rewards or monthly containers are included in the count. Pretty much all the reward containers for me dropped in 11.8.

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1 hour ago, Khafni said:

I selected only Try Your Luck containers for patches 11.7, 11.8, and 11.9 just to see what percentage of them were Super Containers.

From the Wiki - 

How Standard containers become Super containers

Each player account starts with a progress counter that advances from zero to 100. A Super container drop number between zero and 100 is randomly generated. When the counter exceeds the drop number, the container that advanced the counter past the number becomes a Super container. When the counter reaches 100, it is reset and a new drop number is randomly generated.[1]

The counter value and drop number are persistent across log-ins.

Obtaining one of four of the types of Standard container { More Economic Bonuses, More Signals, More Camouflages, More Coal } advances the counter by 1.5. Try Your Luck or the receipt of a Small container advances the counter by 4.5.

Thus there is no "percent roll" to obtain a Super container in place of a Standard container. Each of the four Standard container types advances the counter at a steady pace. Since Try Your Luck advances the counter much more quickly, it is more likely to encounter the drop point and become a Super container. Nevertheless, by simulating a very large number of Standard containers, we find that 4.5% of TYL and 1.5% of other Standard containers do, on average, become Super containers.

My results were a bit above average, overall.

11.7 - 67 containers collected, 4 were SC. 5.97% SC drop rate.

11.8 - 77 containers collected, 5 were SC. 6.49% SC drop rate.

11.9 - 68 containers collected, 2 were SC. 2.94% SC drop rate.

Overall424 containers collected, 22 were SC. 5.19% SC drop rate.

Admittedly, three patches worth of containers doesn't necessarily make a large sample size. I just wanted to see what drop rates I got and share the info,

What was in the containers?

  Reveal hidden contents
Patch 11.7 - TYL
50 Ship XP +200%
100 November Foxtrot
15,000 Coal
50 Credits +40%
Patch 11.8 - TYL
1,000 Doubloons
50 Commander XP +200%
1,000 Doubloons
100 India X-Ray
7 Days Premium
Patch 11.9 - TYL
1,000 Doubloons
100 India X-Ray

I got lucky with the doubloons! Enough, with previous "free earnings" to pay for the remaining six stages of the PR dockyard!

Of course, YMMV!

Sadly all standard containers count towards the 100.

Every More Signals, More Economic, More Coal, and More Camoflauge, contianers collected, be it from mission reward, or buying from armory, or collected from the Daily Login shipment, adds to the rewards. Hence the high irregularities in the drop rate.

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5 hours ago, Khafni said:

No, only the daily containers. No rewards or monthly containers are included in the count. Pretty much all the reward containers for me dropped in 11.8.

Any container you get adds to the total containers you received to get to the magic 100 mercy number.

From what I understand, try your luck is worth 4 containers towards the count to 100...

SC are not random from daily container drops, they are a fixed 100 count.

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2 hours ago, Pretty_Rkless said:

Any container you get adds to the total containers you received to get to the magic 100 mercy number.

From what I understand, try your luck is worth 4 containers towards the count to 100...

SC are not random from daily container drops, they are a fixed 100 count.

I tracked the number of containers between SC. I knew about the "100" before an automatic drop. Didn't know about the TYL containers have a higher "count". If that is the case I wonder why I didn't see an SC when those 35 last TYL's dropped without an SC. For 11.9 I got 19 TYL (plus 7 more leftover from 11.8) then a SC, 12 more TYL then another SC. Then 66 TYL with no SC through today.

Hope this chart makes sense. I tracked the number of TYL until an SC, then started the count of TYL on the next row. Green rows are patch and total counts/percents.

image.png.7a06e324806677c89b51244ad8229d2b.png

Before 11.7 started I had an unrecorded number of TYL before the two on the first day of the patch. 

I don't doubt that TYL are counted differently than the other dailies. It wasn't clear the number needed before an automatic SC. I might just see an SC tomorrow because of the large number of TYL at the end of 11.9, too.

Thanks for your insight!

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2 hours ago, Pretty_Rkless said:

From what I understand, try your luck is worth 4 containers towards the count to 100...

TYL is worth 3 standard containers: Standard adds 1.5, while TYL adds 4.5

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in the 'count'  ... when you get an SC the count does not reset you still have to finish your set to 100, then the random roll happens to decide when you get your next SC.  so lets say you roll a 20, once you collect 20 points you will get an sc but then you still have to collect another 80 before it resets.  you next roll might well be 99... so you will now need another 99 points to get your next sc, and then again 1 more point to get to 100 before it re-rolls.

so technically you could go 198 points between sc's.

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30 minutes ago, Khafni said:

I tracked the number of containers between SC. I knew about the "100" before an automatic drop. Didn't know about the TYL containers have a higher "count". If that is the case I wonder why I didn't see an SC when those 35 last TYL's dropped without an SC. For 11.9 I got 19 TYL (plus 7 more leftover from 11.8) then a SC, 12 more TYL then another SC. Then 66 TYL with no SC through today.

Hope this chart makes sense. I tracked the number of TYL until an SC, then started the count of TYL on the next row. Green rows are patch and total counts/percents.

image.png.7a06e324806677c89b51244ad8229d2b.png

Before 11.7 started I had an unrecorded number of TYL before the two on the first day of the patch. 

I don't doubt that TYL are counted differently than the other dailies. It wasn't clear the number needed before an automatic SC. I might just see an SC tomorrow because of the large number of TYL at the end of 11.9, too.

Thanks for your insight!

Your welcome. 

I allways go for more coal. Last month 3 sc....

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31 minutes ago, Counter_Gambit said:

TYL is worth 3 standard containers: Standard adds 1.5, while TYL adds 4.5

Thank you for clearing up my old memory....

I just vaguely remembered 1 v 4....

 

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Just now, Pretty_Rkless said:

Thank you for clearing up my old memory....

I just vaguely remembered 1 v 4....

 

That just tells me your brain dropped the .5 from the end of each numebr is all. It happens XD

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