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Snargfargle

Matchmaking Monitor say's it's going to be a sure loss

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Imagine using match making monitor...

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Yesterday I had 5 battles and 4 of them were like @Snargfargle's ... Or worse. The statistically worse team won. The exception was a CV game with a purple CV versus a red CV.  Our CV never did find a DD. Their CV hounded the DD s.

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1 minute ago, Ensign_Pulver_2016 said:

Yesterday I had 5 battles and 4 of them were like @Snargfargle's ... Or worse. The statistically worse team won. The exception was a CV game with a purple CV versus a red CV.  Our CV never did find a DD. Their CV hounded the DD s.

A really good CV player can make or break a game. Interestingly, though, their CV player had much higher stats than ours did.

image.png.468d57f104a85ef17b4017fc40e16010.png

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The one I referenced was like a 27%-62% difference in ships played in mode (ranked). Both had well over 40 games for a sample size. It was a sad game to play. And on epicenter to boot.

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13 minutes ago, Ensign_Pulver_2016 said:

Yesterday I had 5 battles and 4 of them were like @Snargfargle's ... Or worse. The statistically worse team won. The exception was a CV game with a purple CV versus a red CV.  Our CV never did find a DD. Their CV hounded the DD s.

My mama always said: "World of Warships is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get."

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PSA… match making moniter doesn’t play the game. We do. You do realize there is only a 9% difference in the win dates. That is less than 1 in 10 battles. Ok, so almost 1 out of every 10 battles the red team will do something to pull off the victory. MMM is very overrated. 

Edited by xXUglykidXx
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36 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

Congrats on the unlikely win, but on a regular basis, if I saw those kind of odds regularly, I'll bet on the better team to win.  I'm very sure that in the long run, the better team will win more games.

 

That said, even in sports you see far superior teams turn in bad performances and get beaten.  In the 2007 Super Bowl, the then undefeated New England Patriots entering the big game were fantastic.  People had already been calling them champions even before the Super Bowl itself.  Nobody respected the Wildcard team New York Giants.  Everyone had already crowned the Pats as the champs, the Super Bowl was really just a long coronation ceremony.  What we got in the end was one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history.

 

In the NBA, a few years back the Golden State Warriors who had been rampaging through the league had gotten the Cleveland Cavaliers down 3-1 in the Finals.  Nobody had ever come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Final before, but that's what happened, and the Warriors now get to live with the ridicule of having been the only team to lose a 3-1 advantage in the NBA Finals.

 

Stuff happens, but I'll still regularly make my safe bet on the better team to win.

====

Also, never give up.  You never know what can happen.

 

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Stats are only a prediction anyways.  A good player can sometimes derp and a bad player can sometimes dominate.

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11 minutes ago, Battlecruiser_Yavuz said:

Stats are only a prediction anyways.  A good player can sometimes derp and a bad player can sometimes dominate.

A broken clock is correct twice a day!

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Anybody know what MMM does if somebody has hidden their stats? How does it account for that?

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30 minutes ago, HazeGrayUnderway said:

if I saw those kind of odds regularly, I'll bet on the better team to win.

Bookies add points so people don't bet on the "best" team. You betting on the team with better stats is nothing out of the ordinary.

I would say the underdog wins far more often than those using MM monitor are willing to admit.

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31 minutes ago, darqsyde242 said:

Anybody know what MMM does if somebody has hidden their stats? How does it account for that?

They are not counted in the team average. This is another issue with using the MMM to predict team wins. The best way to use the MMM is to find the unicum on the opposite team and then try to take him out of the match early because he's the one that's probably going to do the carrying for the lesser players on his team.

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21 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

They are not counted in the team average. This is another issue with using the MMM to predict team wins. The best way to use the MMM is to find the unicum on the opposite team and then try to take him out of the match early because he's the one that's probably going to do the carrying for the lesser players on his team.

A fairly horrible tactic. The best scenario for a good player is if the enemy team is too busy trying to kill them and leaves their potato teammates alive. The worst scenario for a good player is to be the last one standing after the rest of their team kills themselves on purpose. As long as they have a team, they have options.

The best way to influence wins is to play the match in front of you and strive to improve your own skills. Focusing unicum players with the aid of a mod is probably a lot less effective than you think, not to mention a bit pathetic.

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In my eyes MMM is not a tool with which to predict which side is going to win, but more a tool to see which teammates you can trust to hold their own and which enemy players are particularly dangerous. Both can be highly useful information, for example if you're in a DD a competent teammate is much more likely to help you out in a duel you're planning to take.

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MMM promotes toxicity and WG should be block it. 

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1 hour ago, El2aZeR said:

In my eyes MMM is not a tool with which to predict which side is going to win, but more a tool to see which teammates you can trust to hold their own and which enemy players are particularly dangerous. Both can be highly useful information, for example if you're in a DD a competent teammate is much more likely to help you out in a duel you're planning to take.

This ^^^^^

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2 hours ago, SuperSSL said:

A fairly horrible tactic. The best scenario for a good player is if the enemy team is too busy trying to kill them and leaves their potato teammates alive. The worst scenario for a good player is to be the last one standing after the rest of their team kills themselves on purpose. As long as they have a team, they have options.

The best way to influence wins is to play the match in front of you and strive to improve your own skills. Focusing unicum players with the aid of a mod is probably a lot less effective than you think, not to mention a bit pathetic.

This is entirely dependent on the type ship said unicum is in and the ship you are in.  If I am in a CV and the purple guy is in a DD I will be on him like white on rice until he is dead. 

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8 minutes ago, HallaSnackbar said:

This is entirely dependent on the type ship said unicum is in and the ship you are in.  If I am in a CV and the purple guy is in a DD I will be on him like white on rice until he is dead. 

Again, if you hate winning, sure.

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Thing about MMM in ranked is there can be a 67% player with only 3 games who is a 40% overall player. I know my wr on MMM in ranked runs several points above my random wr. Especially in the ships I frequent ranked in.

It can be fun to look at. I can't say it has ever been useful to me.  Since I don't use battle chat much to discuss play quality.

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4 hours ago, Snargfargle said:

A really good CV player can make or break a game. Interestingly, though, their CV player had much higher stats than ours did.

image.png.468d57f104a85ef17b4017fc40e16010.png

in case of CV ships stats much more important than account (even though you using solo games as indicator which is right thing to do)

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A player can be really good in one ship and suck in another.  Even a good number of generally bad players have that one or two ships that they do pretty good in.  So, some bad player with say, 46% WR overall for his account but has a lucky ship where he's 53% WR with a bunch of games is quite feasible out there.

 

Take for example this guy.

Nw8RMFM.jpeg

There's a lot of bad numbers there, but when he plays Warspite, KGV, he does better.

Edited by HazeGrayUnderway

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25 minutes ago, SuperSSL said:

Again, if you hate winning, sure.

I definitely have no problems with winning and do it often enough (moreso in my CV).  Interestingly enough the CV's I have that are best suited for killing DD's have the highest WR.  It is different at T10 where some DD's can be a pain to kill but at T6 and T8 most DD'S are easy pickings and some are very dangerous when left alone so focusing them is a priority especially if they are the only unicum on the team.

T6 is a great example as most unicum players I have seen are either in CV or DD at that tier, my Bearn which is exceptionally good at both killing DD's and stopping red CV from killing my DD's has an 80% wr.

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2 hours ago, HyperFish said:

MMM promotes toxicity and WG should be block it. 

i heard this before - guns promote violence and should be banned. not gonna happen. Toxicity here is in people not in the tool

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