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Ducky_shot

The best value Santa crates

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Ok, for those of you that want the quick and dirty numbers on what the best crate to buy, I'll go through the differences here quickly
https://blog.worldofwarships.com/blog/251

This is assuming that the cash/dub price scaling is the same as in past years and the same as the certificate price. 1/3/5

TLDR: Mega gift has best value

SANTAS GIFT CONTAINER

A Premium or special ship, including rare and Tier X ships, with a Port slot and a 10-skill-point Commander — 2.5% (of them: Tier V–VII ships — 2%, Tier VIII–IX ships — 0.4%, and Tier X and rare ships — 0.1%)
500 Doubloons — 5%
2,500 Coal — 7%
30 days of Warships Premium Account — 1%
5x New Year or "Type 3 — New Year" camouflages — 10%
4x New Year Sky camouflages — 11.5%
4x camouflages of the same type (Winter Strands, Frosty Fir Tree, or New Year Streamer) — 15%
5x special signals of the same type (Dragon, Red Dragon, Wyvern, Hydra, Ouroboros, Basilisk, Scylla, or Leviathan) — 8%
50x signals of the same type (Zulu, Papa Papa, Zulu Hotel, or Equal Speed Charlie London) — 40% (Only crate that gets this)

The biggest thing to know about this container is it is the only one that has the 50x signals of the same type. This goes away in the other containers

 

SANTAS BIG GIFT

A Premium or special ship, including rare and Tier X ships, with a Port slot and a 10-skill-point Commander — 9% (of them: Tier V–VII ships — 7%, Tier VIII–IX ships — 1.5%, and Tier X and rare ships — 0.5%) (higher drop rate)
1,500 Doubloons — 5%
7,500 Coal — 7%
90 days of Warships Premium Account — 1%
15x New Year or "Type 3 — New Year" camouflages — 12%
12x New Year Sky camouflages — 16%
12x camouflages of the same type (Winter Strands, Frosty Fir Tree, or New Year Streamer) — 18%
15x special signals of the same type (Dragon, Red Dragon, Wyvern, Hydra, Ouroboros, Basilisk, Scylla, or Leviathan) — 32%

The drops scale exactly the same from the small gift, 300%. The drop rates change for the ship. If the drop rates scaled, it should only be 7.5%, but it is now 9% and the 50x signals option is gone. Also the ship drops are less skewed in the favor of lower tier ships (22% drop 8-10 compared to 20% for the small container).

 

SANTAS MEGA GIFT

A Premium or special ship, including rare and Tier X ships, with a Port slot and a 10-skill-point Commander — 16% (of them: Tier V–VII ships — 12%, Tier VIII–IX ships — 3%, and Tier X and rare ships — 1%) (higher drop rate)
2,500 Doubloons — 5%
12,500 Coal — 7%
180 days of Warships Premium Account — 1% (higher amount)
5x Spring Sky, Asian Lantern, or Mosaic camouflages — 6% (Only crate that gets this)
25x New Year or "Type 3 — New Year" camouflages — 6%
20x New Year Sky camouflages — 10%
20x camouflages of the same type (Winter Strands, Frosty Fir Tree, or New Year Streamer) — 9%
30x special signals of the same type (Dragon, Red Dragon, Wyvern, Hydra, Ouroboros, Basilisk, Scylla, or Leviathan) — 40% (higher amount)

The drops mostly scale with the mega gift except for 2 exceptions. Premium time and the special signals drop more compared to the cost of the lower crates. Premium time should scale to 150 days and it is 180 days. Special signals should scale to 25 and they are at 30. Also at this level, the super econ camos are available and split the drop rate of the "New Year or "Type 3 — New Year" camouflages". The ship drop again is better than the scaling compared to the gift container it should be 12.5% scaled and compared to the big gift it should scale to 15%, but it is higher than both at 16%. Also high tier ships drop 25% of ship drops which is higher than the other 2.

 

The mega gift is the best value if the dub/cash value is the same as the certificate price. It has better ship drop rate even when scaled to price, more premium time in the premium drop, more special signals in that drop and is the only container to offer the super econ camos while having no 50x regular signal drop. The drop rates for each item change a bit on the mega gift and each player should look these over as their needs may be different.

Edited by Ducky_shot
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FYI, No short list of ships (to drop first) is applicable anymore

Edited by kalman81
corrected information

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1 minute ago, kalman81 said:

No short list of ships (to drop first) was shared though, I wonder if it will be shared

From what I have heard there is not supposed to be a short list

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I'll get to work on my return on investment spreadsheet :)

 

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2 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

From what I have heard there is not supposed to be a short list

Correct, the short list is N/A, seems it has been removed.

 

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I'm most excited about the fact they finally are adding new ships to the containers. Its felt like forever since they added more premium ships to the list. I was thinking my new year certificates were just going to be worthless but now I'll have the chance to pull ships like Borodino and Congress, so I like that.

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16 minutes ago, Tigermaus said:

When does this event usually start?

Should start next patch. Either coming Wednesday or Friday at the latest.

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30 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:
32 minutes ago, kalman81 said:

 

From what I have heard there is not supposed to be a short list

I’m going to wait and see on the shortlist, I am hopeful WG will dispense with that method. Feedback within a few days of the start should give an indicator.  
 

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Steel instead of ships if you already have them? 

:)

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55 minutes ago, OnociTsalk said:

Should start next patch. Either coming Wednesday or Friday at the latest.

Thanks!

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6 minutes ago, TheCompGuy25 said:

No Kamikaze, Fujin, or Nikolai.  #Sadge

Hope springs eternal for the Benham!

Comp

To be fair, they did warn us about this during last year's event. Guilio Cesare is gone too.

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18 minutes ago, TheCompGuy25 said:

No Kamikaze, Fujin, or Nikolai.  #Sadge

Hope springs eternal for the Benham!

Comp

 

10 minutes ago, Firewalk said:

To be fair, they did warn us about this during last year's event. Guilio Cesare is gone too.

...and Gremyashchy.

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17 ships to get, honestly there are several that I didn’t buy during the year waiting for this event.

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Maybe it's just me, but it all sounds pretty unexciting.  Don't think I will be spending any money on a gamble to get a ship I might actually play.  But, to each their own.

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Here's another way of looking at things: for those of you with a large swath of Tier 10 ships, you have some decisions to make about those tokens, and they need to be made in the context of the exchange rates (5 for mega, 3 for big, 1 for standard).

I'll use my numbers since I think they're reasonably indicative of the sort of person WG expects to reach into their pocket. I've been in the game four years, have a randoms win rate of 50%, and use premium time 24/7 because it's so cheap on a daily basis. (Against the time spent in game, much of it is in co-op; if I'd played randoms more and/or certain premium and elited ships a lot less, I might have more T10s.) I currently have 19 of those tokens and will almost certainly get another T10 ship before the coupon drops, bringing me up to 20.

So let's run with 20. I can get four mega, six big plus 2 small (we'll neglect the smalls for a bit) or 20 small crates.

 

Look at THE CHANCE OF GETTING A SHIP (any ship).

p(ship) for small crates is 2.5% or 0.025, and the probability of getting no ship at all is 0.975 per throw. Over 20 throws, the probability of missing out on a ship (any ship) is 0.97520 or 60.3% so about 40% chance of getting any one ship.

p(ship) for medium crates is 10% or 0.1, and the probability of no-ship is 0.9. Over six throws, the probability of missing out on a ship (any ship) is 0.96 or 53.1%, so 47% chance of pulling a ship.

p(ship) for big crates is 16% etc.etc.,  and over FOUR throws the probability of missing out is 0.844 or 49.8% so pretty much 50% chance of getting a ship.

 

I also ran the numbers for my current 19 certificates. If I don't get another T10 resource ship first, the chance of missing out with megas rises to 59% as the increased drop chance hasn't yet compensated for the lower number of crates pulled. In that case, medium crates are the better choice.

 

By the time the mercy rule kicks in for the small crates, probability of missing out would be 8%; for the mediums, 6%; for the bigs, 9%

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13 minutes ago, Captain_Rawhide said:

Maybe it's just me, but it all sounds pretty unexciting.  Don't think I will be spending any money on a gamble to get a ship I might actually play.  But, to each their own.

I don't plan on spending money, but I have 50 certs and a bunch of free accumulated dubs

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1 hour ago, sdj_2016 said:

I’m going to wait and see on the shortlist, I am hopeful WG will dispense with that method. Feedback within a few days of the start should give an indicator.  
 

Boggsy already confirmed no short list in one of the other threads

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Thanks for the info gents, I have a sizable budget set for this christmas crate season, nice to know the odds and best deals though!

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1 hour ago, LancerUlysses said:

Steel instead of ships if you already have them? 

:)

But that's if you have ALL the ships on the list. Last year you could have ALL the ships and it just dropped something else from the list of potential drops. It sounds like this year, as it was last year, if the first pick ship is a dupe for you, it will try another ship until all the ships on the list are exhausted in which case you get the steel amount list below.

If you already have all the ships from the list and the Santa's Gift container drops an item from the Ships group, you will receive the following compensation:

  • 250 steel for Santa's Gift container.
  • 750 steel for Santa's Big Gift container.
  • 1,250 steel for Santa's Mega Gift container.

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2 minutes ago, puckhead77 said:

But that's if you have ALL the ships on the list. Last year you could have ALL the ships and it just dropped something else from the list of potential drops. It sounds like this year, as it was last year, if the first pick ship is a dupe for you, it will try another ship until all the ships on the list are exhausted in which case you get the steel amount list below.

If you already have all the ships from the list and the Santa's Gift container drops an item from the Ships group, you will receive the following compensation:

  • 250 steel for Santa's Gift container.
  • 750 steel for Santa's Big Gift container.
  • 1,250 steel for Santa's Mega Gift container.

Yep. I have all the ships on the list. Which is why I have been knocking off the T8-9 flakes first, as I didn't expect to get much out of the Santa crates. Guess I was wrong :)

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1 hour ago, desmo_2 said:

 

...and Gremyashchy.

Which is interesting, because Gremyashchy is not that good anymore.  Yes, the 8 km torps with 69 second reload are nice at T5, but the guns are almost useless if you ever plan to turn the ship.  The turret rotation is horrible.  

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