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LittleWhiteMouse

Dutch Loot Box Results

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At the behest if @iChase, I asked some of the Community Contributors to go into their press accounts and buy up the new Dutch loot boxes to see how many pulls it would take to get Johan de Witt.  Each pull is 1,000 doubloons.  Keep in mind, we did not pay for these doubloons, these are from press accounts that were provided to us for free from Wargaming. 

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66 pulls for Painezor.  Ouch.

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22 pulls for Reimu.

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42 pulls for me.

I'll add more as more are made available to me.  This is gambling.  Please spend your money responsibly.

EDIT:
 

iChase angrily getting it on his very last box.

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PointyHairedJedi getting his on box 26.

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Painezor continues to have horrible luck, getting it on box 72 on his other press account.

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ChaosMachineGR getting it on box #15.

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Yuzorah being even luckier finding it after his 12th box.

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Aetam on his personal got it on box #3.

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Antitank got his for his for his 29th box.

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And poor Gaishu joins the cautionary tale of having to open 72 to get his.

Edited by LittleWhiteMouse
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Some things to bear in mind:

1) You will never stop a desperately greedy player who just HAS to have the deWitt RIGHT NOW, even though he knows he could have it free for grinding a couple months down the road. Some people just want to be able to grab her now, grind her hard, and have the Gouden the second she's released.

2) This is a system of diminishing odds. Cards are not replaced into the deck, and anyone who spins enough times WILL get the jackpot.

3) All the terrible lessons you show here are diluted immeasurably by every single person who reports pulling the deWitt on the first go.

4) Some people consider the non-ship contents of the boxes worth the price, and will buy large numbers of them accordingly as an informed choice. There is nothing you can do to stop these people.

 

I got one of the token and camo bundles on the first shot. I'm not going fishing for the ship; I know I'll get her eventually. 

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I got 24 and only got flags. So now I have a good stock of flags. Not getting any more. I can wait till they are can be researched. They are only tech tree ships.

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In relelated news iChase also put out a video analysis about the bundles supposedly being "rigged" and a "scam". However that "analysis"  is deeply flawed and I posted a comment to this effect on his video. His sample size is far to small to draw any meaningful conclusion.

You probably shouldn't buy many (if any) of those bundles at all, but not because they are "rigged", but simply because the probabilities to get the ship are bad, even when things are not rigged. 

The problem with Dutch tokens not being credited correctly is something that WG needs to fix of course, but that's a separate issue.

Edited by tangofan
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5 minutes ago, WM1957 said:

I got 24 and only got flags. So now I have a good stock of flags. Not getting any more. I can wait till they are can be researched. They are only tech tree ships.

That's $96 for 48 flags.  You'll also get tokens that can buy the sequential bundles with other awards, but this is no deal.  Sorry if it seems like I'm criticizing your spending, I don't intend for it to sound like that.  I just wanted to point out what people are getting for the doubloons.  Personally, I think this is a terrible value.  YMMV

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Just blew through 30,000 doubloons on my personal account (I didn't pay for those doubloons, so don't worry about me).  The 31st pull won't be yielding it either.

2Zsk2WA.png

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7 minutes ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

Just blew through 30,000 doubloons on my personal account (I didn't pay for those doubloons, so don't worry about me).  The 31st pull won't be yielding it either.

Well, yes. The chance of getting the ship after 36 pulls is 50%. So unless you think the other bundles are worth it, this is a very bad deal.

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I really believe that if WG sold "10 minutes of Air" boxes some would buy them. It's a pitiful commentary, or a commentary on the pitiful.

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9 minutes ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

Just blew through 30,000 doubloons on my personal account (I didn't pay for those doubloons, so don't worry about me).  The 31st pull won't be yielding it either.

2Zsk2WA.png

 

eWquv4I.gif

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Money, so they say, buy a bunch of loot boxes and get your ships toooday.

Edited by Sovereigndawg
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44 minutes ago, tangofan said:

In relelated news iChase also put out a video analysis about the bundles supposedly being "rigged" and a "scam". However that "analysis"  is deeply flawed and I posted a comment to this effect on his video. His sample size is far to small to draw any meaningful conclusion.

You probably shouldn't buy many (if any) of those bundles at all, but not because they are "rigged", but simply because the probabilities to get the ship are bad, even when things are not rigged. 

The problem with Dutch tokens not being credited correctly is something that WG needs to fix of course, but that's a separate issue.

Maybe "rigged" isn't the right word, you could call it "bugged" as the miss allocation of tokens is limited to "press" accounts.  (Although considering the way WG has been treating CC's maybe "rigged" isn't too far from the mark.)

As for a "scam"?  Well, when it really comes down to it.  A scam implies a dishonest action, and one does not have to act dishonestly to take advantage of others.  Sadly, that is all too common.

If it were remotely possible to prove that the "bugged" allocation of tokens was "intentional" then that would be a "scam".  But a very dumb "scam" as you really want those with the largest audience to win the Big Stuffed Bear with ease!  Considering how things have been going lately...

 

If I was a meme maker here is where I would place an gif of Claude Rains from Casablanca saying "I'm Shocked. Shocked to find that gambling is going on here!" (While receiving his winnings...)

 

Anyway, thanks @LittleWhiteMousefor the investigation...but aren't you supposed to be on break?

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56 minutes ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

I asked some of the Community Contributors to go into their press accounts and buy up the new Dutch loot boxes to see how many pulls it would take to get Johan de Witt.

Well given there are 72 bundles and only one of those has a De Witt, the probability seems pretty straight forward.  Are you suggesting that WG have adjusted the probabilities for receiving De Witt to be less than the other bundles?  That would be something they could potentially do, and they have a bit of history in this regard, but I can't see why they'd do it here.  There are so many bundles that for everyone who wants De Witt and pushes through till they get it, WG will receive an average of 36000 doubloons worth of spending.  That doesn't count the people who try for it but give up after a while when they don't get it in the number of pulls they are willing to go for.  WG are going to make serious money with the system they have setup even without playing with the probabilities. 

So assuming it's a linear probability, every individual pull has a dismal 1.4% chance of getting De Witt.  For you to have a 50% chance of getting the ship, you'd have to do 36 bundles - so 36k spent for a 1 in 2 chance.  These are dismal numbers for anyone wanting the ship.  I don't think there is any underhanded stuff going on here though, otherwise it would likely look a bit more attractive.

45 minutes ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

Just blew through 30,000 doubloons on my personal account (I didn't pay for those doubloons, so don't worry about me).  The 31st pull won't be yielding it either.

Your 30k doubloons that you spent only netted you a 41.6% chance of getting the ship.  That is a phenomenally large amount of outlay for a 2 in 5 chance.

 

38 minutes ago, Slimeball91 said:

That's $96 for 48 flags.  You'll also get tokens that can buy the sequential bundles with other awards, but this is no deal.  Sorry if it seems like I'm criticizing your spending, I don't intend for it to sound like that.  I just wanted to point out what people are getting for the doubloons.  Personally, I think this is a terrible value.  YMMV

This is the main problem with these bundles.  Ignoring the ship, all the other rewards are just woefully bad value.  Four special flags and one single use camo for 1000 doubloons?  One Spring Sky type camo for 1000 doubloons?!  :Smile_facepalm:  That is just incredibly terrible value.

They are obviously relying on the draw of people gambling to receive De Witt to entice players into paying for these other horrifically overpriced bundles.  It's not a good system, given it plays on some pretty vulnerable parts of the human psyche to make money for the company.  They would likely make more money if they just had bundles of reasonable value as well - if the bundles themselves were mildly attractive, people wouldn't feel quite so bad when they don't get De Witt.

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42 minutes ago, Moggytwo said:

Are you suggesting that WG have adjusted the probabilities for receiving De Witt to be less than the other bundles? 

No suggestion of this sort was made.  A sample size of 3 (later 4) is laughable to draw any kind of conclusion.  We'd nee a sample size in the hundreds before that could be indicated.  All this was, was showing how three (now 4) accounts fared with purchasing crates with doubloons that they didn't buy themselves.  iChase taking 72 pulls to draw the ship is remarkable, as is his friend who drew it on the first pull.  However, those could still fall into a normal distribution pattern.  We just don't know.  But as ever, it's a gamble and we don't know the odds.  We can guess, and if we get enough samples, we can make an educated guess, but it's still just guess-work.

And THAT should be what cautions players.  Yes, you are guaranteed to draw Johan de Witt after a maximum of 72,000 doubloons and a minimum of 1,000 doubloons.  But we do not know the odds of where the ship will appear within that range on average.  Maybe it's 36,000 doubloons.  Maybe.  Maybe it's weighted.  We don't know.  In any case, your own chances may not conform to the expected average (you're just one person, after all).  But when you buy these crates for the purpose of unlocking Johan de Witt, it's a gamble, plain and simple. 

Edited by LittleWhiteMouse
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It really felt like this was way overtuned compared to the German DD and Italian BB bundles. 

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29 minutes ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

And THAT should be what cautions players.  Yes, you are guaranteed to draw Johan de Witt after a maximum of 72,000 doubloons and a minimum of 1,000 doubloons.  But we do not know the odds of where the ship will appear within that range on average.  Maybe it's 36,000 doubloons.  Maybe.  Maybe it's weighted.  We don't know.  In any case, your own chances may not conform to the expected average (you're just one person, after all).  But when you buy these crates for the purpose of unlocking Johan de Witt, it's a gamble, plain and simple. 

I totally agree.  It may be weighted, we don't know as you say.  My point was, that even assuming it isn't weighted, and is "fair" in terms of the probabilities being as you'd expect, it is still a ridiculous amount of money - you're paying 36000 doubloons for 1 in 2 chance, a coin flip.  Half the people that will try for De Witt will have to pay more than this amount if they want the ship.  That's horrifically bad value.

Incidentally, if you spend US$288 to get all 72 bundles, you will get 256 special signals, 122 one time use camos, 6 "Spring Sky" style special one time use camos, 140 normal combat signals, 52 normal economic signals, one day of premium time, the tier 4, 6, 8 and 9 tech tree ships, and permacamos (with generally terrible bonuses) for the tiers 7 through 10.

Note also that if you spend no money at all, and just play a moderate amount, you'll get the tiers 4, 5, 6, and 7 tech tree ships, 12 one time use camos, 12 normal economic signals, and the tier 7 permacamo.  Plus if you have two months worth of patience you can grind out the line from tier 7 for free, starting at tier 8 on patch day with nothing spent.

This has to be the worst value event that I have seen WG do, and these early access events are normally pretty poor value.

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I buy enough to get the tokens for the T8 ship, after last directive/mission set is completed. I hate grinding below tier 8, so I figure it's worth the doubloons in my case. That means 17 draws this time, which were all signals, no ship or jackpot tokens. Luckily I find the flags and camo to be worth the price of admission as well.

Edit: ... that camo is fugly.

Edited by Ghawain
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1 hour ago, tangofan said:

Well, yes. The chance of getting the ship after 36 pulls is 50%. So unless you think the other bundles are worth it, this is a very bad deal.

The chance of getting the ship on any box one is 50%  It is either there, or it isn't.

1/72 chance the first box of having a ship (if not rigged)

After each pull (and failure) the chance of getting the ship improve.

At 36 pulls, (if not rigged) there is a 50% chance the ship would have dropped by now (or not).

 

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Got the De Witt and the 80 token pull in the first seven boxes. 

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2 hours ago, Slimeball91 said:

Only a small sample so far but the average is ~43 tries, or better expressed as 43k doubloons, $172 USD

[For the record, this is as much a reminder to MYSELF as to everyone else, I'll admit, that I have gone full-on bimbo before and have totally fallen victim to these dumb random bundles before (USN splitline for Minnesota and Italian BBs somewhat for Lepanto, which I still don't have)....I hate the effects of "sunk cost fallacy" with a passion.]

It's for TECH TREE SHIPS!!!! $172 USD average on...tech tree ships. You are getting tech tree ships earlier. Big freakin' whoop. Don't buy'em. Just don't, wait for them to become available FOR FREE on the tech tree.

1 hour ago, Moggytwo said:

Are you suggesting that WG have adjusted the probabilities for receiving De Witt to be less than the other bundles?

I don't think that's the case, IIRC I went in like almost 30 times on the stupid Italian BB random bundles and got no Lepanto (I mean, I DID have some extra doubloons, but still, it was SUCH a waste lols), so I believe it's just bad odds across the board UNLESS you get the ship in like 10 boxes or something (I think I got Minnesota in just over 10 boxes or a bit more?? It's been a while, I can't remember too well...ugh.)

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I have zero or negative interests on those new cruisers. I will pass.

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Clan mate got it on 2nd box....

I spent 4 boxes and gave up....

2nd event in a row that I gave up on a tech tree ship because its too costly.

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