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mrunknowncomes

87.5% chance to match higher tier room, is that normal?

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hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

Edited by mrunknowncomes
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33 minutes ago, mrunknowncomes said:

hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

The matchmaker was recently modified to limit how often a ship is made bottom tier after a 20 battle calibration time and to reduce how often you are the only bottom tier ship in a battle.  This means it is deeply unlikely that you are 'always' bottom tier; instead you'll be bottom tier about 40% of the time once your ship has been calibrated.    

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11 minutes ago, UltimateNewbie said:

once your ship has been calibrated.    

It's not per ship... it's per tier...

45 minutes ago, mrunknowncomes said:

hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

Once you play 20 calibration games*** in any tier that tier will only allow you to be uptiered by 2 tiers no more than 40% (8 out of the last 20 games...not including the calibration ganes)of the time...

IOW...it only means you won't be bottom  tier by 2 tiers ..but it doesn't guarantee you will ever be too tier & you could theoretically be bottom tier by 1 tier in the other 12 games...

You will occasionally be too tier though...but in any 20 game set you may only be a few times as the only guarantee is not bottom by 2 tiers more than 40% of the time.

***You can be bottom tier by 2 tiers in all 20 of those games...& because most other players are past their calibration games you most likely will be in most of them...but it is a chance to farm extra XP off if ships 2 tiers higher than you...a chance that you will only get 40% of the time after the 20 calibration games.

Edited by IfYouSeeKhaos

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The 40% number is being bottom tier (-2 tiers,) you can still be middle tier (i.e. a tier 8 game, if you're playing tier 7) and not be top tier.

from patch 8.7 notes:

Matchmaker

We’re introducing strict limitations on the tiers of battles that you can be sent to. For each player, the matchmaker will take into account the number of battles they have played with ships of the same tier as theirs, as well as the number of ships one or two tiers higher.

After a short calibration period that will last up to 20 battles for each battle type and ship tier, the matchmaker will ensure that the percentage of battles with ships of the specified tier does not exceed the set limits. For example, for Tier VIII ships, the limits are expected to be 40% of battles with ships two tiers higher. This means that out of 20 battles you play with Tier VIII ships, a maximum of eight battles will include Tier X ships.

Another advantage of this change is that series of battles will be reliably interrupted, because the matchmaker will analyze the last 20 battles each time. This means that when calibration is done, long series of battles with ships of higher tiers will not occur when repeatedly using a single ship tier.

Edited by HamptonRoads

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Sample size.

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2 hours ago, mrunknowncomes said:

hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

Wg says a lot of things. It’s what they do you should pay attention to.

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After only 20 games, it's not really possible to say if your experience is "normal" or not.  Overall, when playing a T7 ship, you should see T9 ships no more than 40% of the time.  In 20 games, that's what, somewhere between 3 and 4 games?  You saw them 5 times.  Certainly not impossible.  Keep track for, say, 100 games, then let us know what you saw.  Yes, statisticians of the world, I know 100 games might not be "enough", but it'll be closer to "enough".

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5 hours ago, mrunknowncomes said:

hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

Got to play more matches for the 40% to kick in, sadly when you get there and it does, the MM might make you wait a few mins and then give you a match with some bots too... but it always does average out.

On the plus side, as much as getting up tiered can hurt in WoWS, it is IMO a LOT better than in WoT which was just terribad for up tiers a lot of the time.

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6 minutes ago, TheArc said:

On the plus side, as much as getting up tiered can hurt in WoWS, it is IMO a LOT better than in WoT which was just terribad for up tiers a lot of the time.

Likewise my (now rather outdated) memories of WoT from 2014- 2015 is that uptiered/lightly armed tanks can frequently do almost nothing to some of their heavier armoured opponents, which lower tiered ships can at least use HE onto superstructure and extremities.

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53 minutes ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

Likewise my (now rather outdated) memories of WoT from 2014- 2015 is that uptiered/lightly armed tanks can frequently do almost nothing to some of their heavier armoured opponents, which lower tiered ships can at least use HE onto superstructure and extremities.

Yeah, it was absolutely futile for some tanks against others. Usually you could try to track them at least, but it really was just a huge FU to the MM all too often, and they were much smarter in WoWS with that, much MUCH smarter. In WoT, the gold premium ammo helped a lot of the lower tier tanks as it became the more standard ammo. Of course at high tier it virtually eliminated the value of armor angling entirely and really dumbed down clan battles. 

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10 minutes ago, TheArc said:

Yeah, it was absolutely futile for some tanks against others. Usually you could try to track them at least, but it really was just a huge FU to the MM all too often, and they were much smarter in WoWS with that, much MUCH smarter. In WoT, the gold premium ammo helped a lot of the lower tier tanks as it became the more standard ammo. Of course at high tier it virtually eliminated the value of armor angling entirely and really dumbed down clan battles. 

Warships has it's (many) flaws and inbalances that are covered in length but by goodness does the Destroyer/Cruiser/Battleship game feel so much more comfortable than Light/Medium/Heavy tanks.

And I keep trying to blank the existence of gold ammo out of my mind.

Edited by SoothingWhaleSongEU
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Just now, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

Warships has it's (many) flaws and inbalances that are covered in length but by goodness does the Destroyer/Cruiser/Battleship game feel so much comfortable than Light/Medium/Heavy tanks.

And I keep trying to blank the existence of gold ammo out of my mind.

Agreed 100% and can't blame ya ;)

My most loathed thing from WoT was the way tanks would just go invisible sitting in a bush (and firing.) Oy!

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7 hours ago, mrunknowncomes said:

hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

No, it's that no more than 40% of your last 20 games can be 2 tiers down.

And even if you're over your quota, you can still get screwed by a queue dump. (and sometimes, those aren't noticeable)

Edited by Skpstr

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21 minutes ago, Skpstr said:

No, it's that no more than 40% of your last 20 games can be 2 tiers down.

And even if you're over your quota, you can still get screwed by a queue dump. (and sometimes, those aren't noticeable)

You are reading that wrong -

After a short calibration period that will last up to 20 battles for each battle type and ship tier

A battle type is normal, domination, x, y, z.

Not Random/Coop. as people seem to be thinking. In that calibration time, anything goes.

The calibration period gets reset at server restarts.

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The issue is that by the time you get that 40% to kick in....you're already mentally defeated and stop playing. 

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7 minutes ago, Dr_Venture said:

The issue is that by the time you get that 40% to kick in....you're already mentally defeated and stop playing. 

its not calibrating daily...

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While it is frustrating to be uptiered frequently - and t7 right now is probably in the worst spot as far as that goes - 8 games is way too small a sample size to say for certain that the 40% rule is or is not kicking in.  Plus as others have mentioned, if this is your first t7 your first 20 games aren't governed by the 40% 'rule'.  Keep track for 100 games or so and then see where you are at.  My guess is that it will be pretty close to the 40%.

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I suspect queues are top-heavy in general across the board. People playing their high-tier ships to try and finish missions, get XP bonuses, and so on.

IIRC, they also put in code to limit the number of top-tier ships in most matches. That has a flip side effect that more players are going to see +2 ships than see -2 ships (since there are fewer top tier ships and more bottom). I just assume I'm going to be -2 tiers on all my regrinds these days, except for the rare games when I'm top tier instead. Kinda annoying tbh.

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3 hours ago, _cthulhu_ said:

You are reading that wrong -

After a short calibration period that will last up to 20 battles for each battle type and ship tier

 

The calibration period lasts 20 battles, because MM needs 20 previous games to base the 40% on, after that, it's a rolling total.

IOW, Games 1-20 are calibration. Game 21 is based on Games 1-20. Game 22 is based on Games 2-21. Game 23 on Games 3-22, and so on.

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11 hours ago, mrunknowncomes said:

hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

Its normal, it reflects the population in queue at the time ...

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1 hour ago, Skpstr said:

The calibration period lasts 20 battles, because MM needs 20 previous games to base the 40% on, after that, it's a rolling total.

IOW, Games 1-20 are calibration. Game 21 is based on Games 1-20. Game 22 is based on Games 2-21. Game 23 on Games 3-22, and so on.

Yes, it's for EACH battle type and ship tier. So, 20 standard, 20 domination, 20 x, 20 y.

I was trying to point out that it isnt just all randoms combined and is quite a large number of battles for calibration that can span multiple play sessions.

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1 hour ago, _cthulhu_ said:

Yes, it's for EACH battle type and ship tier. So, 20 standard, 20 domination, 20 x, 20 y.

I was trying to point out that it isnt just all randoms combined and is quite a large number of battles for calibration that can span multiple play sessions.


Nope.

"Regardless of type. Keep in mind, the MM keeps separate records of Coop and Randoms"

Main issue is that WG isnt very consistent with their naming conventions, but based on available information from devs, its just play 20 battles, doesnt matter if its domination, standard, epicenter, at the same tier for your calibration.

 

Edited by SirPent13

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23 hours ago, mrunknowncomes said:

hey guys, i played 8 rounds of T7 ships today, 7 rounds was i matched with higher tier ships, 5 rounds was i matched with T9 ships. Is that normal now? I thought that WG once said that chance won't be higher than 40%, was that a disinformation?

if you play just 1 round, and get a T9 game, it will be 100% chance to be in T9 game. is it disinformation? Or maybe you need to play like 300 games to get statistics?

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17 hours ago, _cthulhu_ said:

Yes, it's for EACH battle type and ship tier. So, 20 standard, 20 domination, 20 x, 20 y.

I was trying to point out that it isnt just all randoms combined and is quite a large number of battles for calibration that can span multiple play sessions.

Ah ok, I see what you meant now.

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21 hours ago, SirPent13 said:

Nope.

"Regardless of type. Keep in mind, the MM keeps separate records of Coop and Randoms"

Main issue is that WG isnt very consistent with their naming conventions, but based on available information from devs, its just play 20 battles, doesnt matter if its domination, standard, epicenter, at the same tier for your calibration.

I didnt say they dont keep coop and random stats separately. I said it is each battle type.

Devs have said both things, by battle type and not battle type.

Keep in mind, devs said no subs, wont sell T10s etc.

Keep a tally and find out which is correct. It is what was done previously to demonstrate MM behaviour. If their track record holds T8s will be bottom tier about 60% of the time.

 

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