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Cit_the_bed

How to whale Christmas presents properly. (Money, lots of it)

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TLDR; You have to spend $360 a year to make it work. Stop reading if you can't afford $1 a day for entertainment. 

 

Let me start out by saying that the Christmas crates are misunderstood. 80-90% of the time you will only get camouflages, flags, free xp, coal, and premium time. You are still getting something of very very good value.

If you stack dragon flags in clan battles, you can easily make 20,000 xp/fxp per win. This gets you fast progress, free xp, and the freexp ships. People who are saying they got "nothing" are ignoring the obvious mathematical chances for blind hope of a miracle.

MIRACLES DON'T HAPPEN IN A CASINO. It's all pre-ordained, mathematically.

90% of the time the contents are the EXPECTED reward. The ship chance is a very nice bonus. If you use the math, you can benefit immensely.

 

Some history:

 

Since 2016, it has always been known that there is a wall of trash ships you get before you get a re-roll and a premium containers. In fact, in 2016, you could get multiple copies of the same ship. I got three SIMS in a row in 2016. People were getting 3-5 EMDENS. The trade off was in 2016, you got the

full doubloon value of the ships. People made enough to just buy ships outright, so the outrage was minimal.

Here we are in 2020, and people are mostly new players who don't know how the previous years worked, and wargaming, forgetting that it's NOT the same player base anymore, assumed people knew about the trash ship wall, and forgot to mention it this year.

This is the hole they dug for themselves. This is not what this post is about, however.


It is time to decide: Are you willing to spend money on the 1 in 10 chance of a ship? If your answer is no, go to the store and just buy your ship of choice. If you are a person of chance, who is willing to climb the wall of trash to the promised land, then read on.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's take a chance while still getting good stuff.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Christmas crates have 12-18% chance of a ship. This is PER crate, and not a guarantee! 

Approximately 88% of the time you will not get a ship. The normal rewards need to be enough for you to be happy. Stop if it's not.  

Appreciating the normal rewards:

This year I used all the dragon flags and camouflages from xmas to make millions of xp and free xp. I reset research bureau enough to get Ohio, get my Smaland, push directly to Petropavlovsk from T8, push multiple captains to 19 points, and be one line reset from getting Slava. This alone was worth what I spent.

Every win goes from 5000xp to 20,000xp, and I progress four times faster at everything but coal and steel, which are pretty much set by skill in ranked and clan battles.

The math of the gamble: 

1 in 10 is amazingly good odds, better than any casino in the world. A slot machine generally has 1% chance. If you lose at a casino you get nothing. In warships, you still get very good items. It's a win/win situation.

How do you benefit from the trash ship list?

You should realize that when you own all the ships on that list, you will get amazing ships in supercontainers.

You should realize the trash list is pretty short.

You should realize most of the "trash" ships aren't really trash. They are just low tier, and usually the best of their tier.

You should realize that all premium ships have better economics and can take captains without retraining them. Almost every premium you get will be worth playing. Don't fixate on one ship!

You should stick to big presents and not mega, what you are buying is more chances at ships. The appx 5% chance difference between mega and big presents is not worth 50% more cost. It's better to get more chances, by getting more big presents. 

How to maximize your gamble for the best return:

I set a limit of $1 per day for warships, this is money I spend only at Christmas. That's roughly $360. Yikes! That's too much! It's time to head to the premium store to buy your one ship for the year. 

Still here? $1 a day will get you a plain hamburger at McDonalds with no drink. It won't even get you a cup of coffee. $1 a day in nothing, and you know it. 

 

Climbing the list to glory:

Buying single presents one at a time seems to have worse odds. We know they do things behind the scenes. I can tell you from experiments that the big bundles will get you at least 1-2 ships, while 20 single purchases get you nothing.

My personal take is they have a minimum number they bake into the big bundles so people won't get angry and stop buying. That said, we're going to act like we're using the stated odds of 12% per crate.

The trash pile:

If the trash list is 4-5 ships, we need at the minimum, 80 crates to satisfy that. That's $200. You're going to get more camos, flags, and coal than most players get in a year. This amount of crates should get you past the wall.

The silver mine: 

If you have pushed past the trash, you'll know because you will get supercontainers instead of ships in presents. A supercontainer means the crate looks to the list, and either lands on the ship you have on an incomplete list, or lands on your full list, and hands you

a supercontainer instead. In general, that means you will have roughly a 1 in 100 chance of getting that special single ship off the list. In reality, it guards certain ships and only gives them last. I have found that it will march up the tiers within a 

bracket and won't give the ultra special ships until you deplete that pool of normal premiums. That sounds depressing, right? Not really, because the ships you will be getting are good ships like Tirpitz, Alabama, West Virginia, and more.

Realize that once you get past the trash list, every ship you get represents a $30-80 value per ship. 

The gold mine, or when to whale:

So we used $200 to get a stupendous pile of camos and other goodies, and we got 4-5 nice low tier "trash" premiums in the "trash list". We will now use our remaining $160 to get 60 more crates. We will go to the armory and use the doubloons we earned to buy 10-20 more crates.

If the 1 in 10 holds true, our 70-80 crates will get us 6-8 premiums from the list. Worst case scenario you might get only 4 or 5.  At $30-80 a ship that can be anywhere from $240 to $640 worth of ships. Remember each ship comes with a ten point captain!

We are now at the point where spending money will generate more "value" than we spend. The only limit at that point is how much money you want to spend. SET A BUDGET, it's too easy to just click and buy, the reality is this is real money. 

The list shrinks, the rewards get better:

The more ships you have, the less room it has to avoid the legendary ships like Missouri, kamikaze, enterprise, and more. As it depletes the ranks of normal premiums, it will begrudgingly give up the best ships. At the end, it will give out the freexp and coal ships.

We hit our set limit, it's time to stop.

We spent our $360, and got probably 10 premiums for it, a massive heap of camos, dragon flags, coal, and premium time. You can buy premium time with the doubloons that dropped, or use the doubloons for more crates.

It gets better every year:

The list carries over to next year, so when we have more money, we can pick up where we stopped. As long as you earn all the free event ships (like Oklahoma, etc), you won't have to climb over them. It will be almost pure great premium ships after that.

It's not for those who won't spend at least $300 every single year.

You're not going to get past the wall and up the list of premiums to the legendary ships on anything less than $300 a year. Over five years I've given wargaming $2000. Sounds crazy, right? But that's still $1 a day. Have a phone? At $40 a month that's $2500 with taxes in the same amount of time.

Shove $1 a day in a jar. You're worth it.

It's harder for new players:

I have the advantage that I've been doing this since 2016 when the list of trash to climb was breathtakingly short. Every year after the other was easier and easier, as the list gets shorter. 

A sure thing, something a gambler loves:

Imagine if every hand of blackjack or pull of a slot gave you a nice coffee mug, or some K-cups. That's what the Christmas crates do, it's good stuff even when you "lose".

This is maximizing return for your money. If you buy 3 premiums a year, you're already at $240. $365 isn't really that much of a stretch.

 

Good luck whaling, the proper way, and see you in game. 

 

 

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Good analysis. I like your approach.

Your point about making sure you grab all the event premiums, however lousy, is very well made. Another thing to bear in mind is that there are now more mid-tier (5-7) premiums for coal than ever before. If you have the coal to spare, you can clear out the mid-tier stuff in the Armory with it. That still won't save you from pulling a Marblehead Lima, for example, but you can at least lock out Okt Rev, Marblehead, Anshan, Hill, Lazo, Duke of York, Aigle and Blyskawica, and you only have to nail the Marblehead Lima once (and leave it to rot in port) to be immune from it forever.

Another thing on which I firmly agree with you is that the "trash" premiums are still premiums, with all their benefits, they can sometimes surprise you (on an "I never expected to enjoy this but she's actually fun!" level), and one shouldn't turn one's nose up at a Hill just because it isn't a Benham (for example).

Edited by Ensign_Cthulhu
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28 minutes ago, Cit_the_bed said:

TLDR; You have to spend $360 a year to make it work. Stop reading if you can't afford $1 a day for entertainment. 

 

Good luck whaling, the proper way, and see you in game. 

 

 

Very well written. It took my first year to realize that if I got Emden and sold her, I would get her again. So, after selling her twice I figured I better keep her. No more Emdens in crates.

I try to keep my expenditures on WoWs down to $25 a month just so I can "splurge" at Christmas. Since 2016 I have spent an average of $140 for Santa Crates and received an average of 6 ships each year. I will not complain!

And, as you said, the flags and cammo do bring value for the grind.

This year I am focusing on mega crates alone. My first batch of 8 did not bring me a ship but I will get a couple in due time.

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Excellent write up.

The relevant points are why I always tell those who ask to never, NEVER sell that premium they think is trash for credits.

2 minutes ago, Khafni said:

Since 2016 I have spent an average of $140 for Santa Crates and received an average of 6 ships each year. I will not complain.

Pretty much how many I get each year.

2 minutes ago, Khafni said:

And, as you said, the flags and cammo do bring value for the grind.

All the Dragons and etc. have helped me grind through my UUs this year; though in the end it may wind up being partly meaningless if I can’t finish all the block five missions.

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Damn, thanks for the guide! Now I know all I truly needed was to shove 360$ a year at WG's gaping maw to help them promote even better business practices next year!!!!!!11!1!1!1! 

/s

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6 minutes ago, Estimated_Prophet said:

Excellent write up.

The relevant points are why I always tell those who ask to never, NEVER sell that premium they think is trash for credits.

Pretty much how many I get each year.

All the Dragons and etc. have helped me grind through my UUs this year; though in the end it may wind up being partly meaningless if I can’t finish all the block five missions.

You will do 300-400 base xp per game in coop just dying / yolo rushing a cap or ramming. Average coop game is 9 minutes. That is 5 coop games per day, per ship, for each of the remaining 23 days to clear all 40,000 base xp. I did 5K base xp in 14 games today cap rushing in my Hakuryu while at work.

If you just ram, you can exit to port and go to the next ship and juggle 3-4 games at the same time.

Edited by Cit_the_bed
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51 minutes ago, Cit_the_bed said:

Since 2016, it has always been known that there is a wall of trash ships you get before you get a re-roll and a premium containers.

I have played for 4 years and read the WOWs news. 

I knew the odds varied for each ship with rare ships having extremely high odds against getting them.

I did not know the odds of getting 95% of the ships was zero if I did not own certain ships.

 

By the way it is a good write up.  

 

 

 

Edited by cmdr_bigdog
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3 minutes ago, cmdr_bigdog said:

I did not know the odds of getting 95% of the ships was zero if I did not own certain ships.

 

Is Makarov not a premium ship? Makarov is not objectively a bad ship. It's just not the Missouri that everyone hopes they will get.

You just need to fill out the very small trash list and premiums will gather like moths on a light... you just need $200 bux to do that. 

You have my understanding.

Edited by Cit_the_bed

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Makarov is in the 5% not the 95%. 

You are right the other rewards are worth  what is spent. But I have a real short limit on what I would spend for signals and camos.

But the slim chance at the rare ships is why I bought more crates not realizing I had to get thru some turds to even get my slim chance.

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Even though your first point regarding $360 should have meant I stopped reading there, I continued to read and congratulate you on a nice thread.

I may find myself making a purchase of a ship or 2 throughout the year (especially around November when the cheaper B ships are available), but $360 is a lot of money, whether you wish to try and break it down to a measly $1 a day or not - the big picture is very different.

It is also not just the money, but the value a person believes they are getting for their money and of course the trust they have in the company they are giving their money to.

 

Nonetheless, a great piece of work. :Smile_honoring:

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12 minutes ago, Cit_the_bed said:

It's just not the Missouri that everyone hopes they will get.

I can't understand what the obsession with the Missouri is anyway. Is it the radar on a BB that people want, the ability to pull down credits in chunks of a million per battle easy, or both?

I'm quite happy to earn my credits slower and do without radar on my battleships if it means I'm not stuffing indefensible amounts of real-world money down WG's throat at Christmas. Seriously, people, let it go; your obsession is getting out of hand.

My two Christmas crate pulls were Makarov and Duca D'Aosta, and there will probably people who will say I was robbed blind, but I quite like my Konigsberg and Nurnberg, and a premium Russian version is no skin off my nose to get. As for Duca D'Aosta, life in her so far has been short and violent but never boring, but the big upside is that my Italian captains finally have something to take out that will let them do missions for fire ribbons.

I was a little bit dismayed to get this one at first (I'd have preferred any other T6 I don't currently have), but the silver lining hasn't been slow to show itself and she could easily end up surprising me.

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6 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

I can't understand what the obsession with the Missouri is anyway. Is it the radar on a BB that people want, the ability to pull down credits in chunks of a million per battle easy, or both?

I'm quite happy to earn my credits slower and do without radar on my battleships if it means I'm not stuffing indefensible amounts of real-world money down WG's throat at Christmas. Seriously, people, let it go; your obsession is getting out of hand.

My two Christmas crate pulls were Makarov and Duca D'Aosta, and there will probably people who will say I was robbed blind, but I quite like my Konigsberg and Nurnberg, and a premium Russian version is no skin off my nose to get. As for Duca D'Aosta, life in her so far has been short and violent but never boring, but the big upside is that my Italian captains finally have something to take out that will let them do missions for fire ribbons.

I was a little bit dismayed to get this one at first (I'd have preferred any other T6 I don't currently have), but the silver lining hasn't been slow to show itself and she could easily end up surprising me.

History has something to play into it also. The Mighty Mo is an amazing ship and i want it, as bad as i want the Musashi, and the Yamato.

I doubt ill get it this year. I was and am missing far to many ships on the list, mostly tier 7s and 6s. Somehow had most of the 5s and 8s...tier 9 is a huge chunk im missing too(all the free exp ships minus the Alaska..)

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4 minutes ago, cmdr_bigdog said:

I am frequently short of credits. 

Oh, I know that feeling. Too many of my tech-tree grinds mature together, and when you get up to high tier that's a problem. 

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46 minutes ago, _WaveRider_ said:

Even though your first point regarding $360 should have meant I stopped reading there, I continued to read and congratulate you on a nice thread.

I may find myself making a purchase of a ship or 2 throughout the year (especially around November when the cheaper B ships are available), but $360 is a lot of money, whether you wish to try and break it down to a measly $1 a day or not - the big picture is very different.

It is also not just the money, but the value a person believes they are getting for their money and of course the trust they have in the company they are giving their money to.

 

Nonetheless, a great piece of work. :Smile_honoring:

It is probably all relative to the current budget, personal desires and obligations.

For some, $360 is a lot.  For others, it is a drop in the bucket.

Heck!  I've read of folks that have already spent $1000s on Christmas crates.

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2 hours ago, Cit_the_bed said:

TLDR; You have to spend $360 a year to make it work. Stop reading if you can't afford $1 a day for entertainment. 

 

Let me start out by saying that the Christmas crates are misunderstood. 80-90% of the time you will only get camouflages, flags, free xp, coal, and premium time. You are still getting something of very very good value.

If you stack dragon flags in clan battles, you can easily make 20,000 xp/fxp per win. This gets you fast progress, free xp, and the freexp ships. People who are saying they got "nothing" are ignoring the obvious mathematical chances for blind hope of a miracle.

MIRACLES DON'T HAPPEN IN A CASINO. It's all pre-ordained, mathematically.

90% of the time the contents are the EXPECTED reward. The ship chance is a very nice bonus. If you use the math, you can benefit immensely.

 

Some history:

 

Since 2016, it has always been known that there is a wall of trash ships you get before you get a re-roll and a premium containers. In fact, in 2016, you could get multiple copies of the same ship. I got three SIMS in a row in 2016. People were getting 3-5 EMDENS. The trade off was in 2016, you got the

full doubloon value of the ships. People made enough to just buy ships outright, so the outrage was minimal.

Here we are in 2020, and people are mostly new players who don't know how the previous years worked, and wargaming, forgetting that it's NOT the same player base anymore, assumed people knew about the trash ship wall, and forgot to mention it this year.

This is the hole they dug for themselves. This is not what this post is about, however.


It is time to decide: Are you willing to spend money on the 1 in 10 chance of a ship? If your answer is no, go to the store and just buy your ship of choice. If you are a person of chance, who is willing to climb the wall of trash to the promised land, then read on.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's take a chance while still getting good stuff.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Christmas crates have 12-18% chance of a ship. This is PER crate, and not a guarantee! 

Approximately 88% of the time you will not get a ship. The normal rewards need to be enough for you to be happy. Stop if it's not.  

Appreciating the normal rewards:

This year I used all the dragon flags and camouflages from xmas to make millions of xp and free xp. I reset research bureau enough to get Ohio, get my Smaland, push directly to Petropavlovsk from T8, push multiple captains to 19 points, and be one line reset from getting Slava. This alone was worth what I spent.

Every win goes from 5000xp to 20,000xp, and I progress four times faster at everything but coal and steel, which are pretty much set by skill in ranked and clan battles.

The math of the gamble: 

1 in 10 is amazingly good odds, better than any casino in the world. A slot machine generally has 1% chance. If you lose at a casino you get nothing. In warships, you still get very good items. It's a win/win situation.

How do you benefit from the trash ship list?

You should realize that when you own all the ships on that list, you will get amazing ships in supercontainers.

You should realize the trash list is pretty short.

You should realize most of the "trash" ships aren't really trash. They are just low tier, and usually the best of their tier.

You should realize that all premium ships have better economics and can take captains without retraining them. Almost every premium you get will be worth playing. Don't fixate on one ship!

You should stick to big presents and not mega, what you are buying is more chances at ships. The appx 5% chance difference between mega and big presents is not worth 50% more cost. It's better to get more chances, by getting more big presents. 

How to maximize your gamble for the best return:

I set a limit of $1 per day for warships, this is money I spend only at Christmas. That's roughly $360. Yikes! That's too much! It's time to head to the premium store to buy your one ship for the year. 

Still here? $1 a day will get you a plain hamburger at McDonalds with no drink. It won't even get you a cup of coffee. $1 a day in nothing, and you know it. 

 

Climbing the list to glory:

Buying single presents one at a time seems to have worse odds. We know they do things behind the scenes. I can tell you from experiments that the big bundles will get you at least 1-2 ships, while 20 single purchases get you nothing.

My personal take is they have a minimum number they bake into the big bundles so people won't get angry and stop buying. That said, we're going to act like we're using the stated odds of 12% per crate.

The trash pile:

If the trash list is 4-5 ships, we need at the minimum, 80 crates to satisfy that. That's $200. You're going to get more camos, flags, and coal than most players get in a year. This amount of crates should get you past the wall.

The silver mine: 

If you have pushed past the trash, you'll know because you will get supercontainers instead of ships in presents. A supercontainer means the crate looks to the list, and either lands on the ship you have on an incomplete list, or lands on your full list, and hands you

a supercontainer instead. In general, that means you will have roughly a 1 in 100 chance of getting that special single ship off the list. In reality, it guards certain ships and only gives them last. I have found that it will march up the tiers within a 

bracket and won't give the ultra special ships until you deplete that pool of normal premiums. That sounds depressing, right? Not really, because the ships you will be getting are good ships like Tirpitz, Alabama, West Virginia, and more.

Realize that once you get past the trash list, every ship you get represents a $30-80 value per ship. 

The gold mine, or when to whale:

So we used $200 to get a stupendous pile of camos and other goodies, and we got 4-5 nice low tier "trash" premiums in the "trash list". We will now use our remaining $160 to get 60 more crates. We will go to the armory and use the doubloons we earned to buy 10-20 more crates.

If the 1 in 10 holds true, our 70-80 crates will get us 6-8 premiums from the list. Worst case scenario you might get only 4 or 5.  At $30-80 a ship that can be anywhere from $240 to $640 worth of ships. Remember each ship comes with a ten point captain!

We are now at the point where spending money will generate more "value" than we spend. The only limit at that point is how much money you want to spend. SET A BUDGET, it's too easy to just click and buy, the reality is this is real money. 

The list shrinks, the rewards get better:

The more ships you have, the less room it has to avoid the legendary ships like Missouri, kamikaze, enterprise, and more. As it depletes the ranks of normal premiums, it will begrudgingly give up the best ships. At the end, it will give out the freexp and coal ships.

We hit our set limit, it's time to stop.

We spent our $360, and got probably 10 premiums for it, a massive heap of camos, dragon flags, coal, and premium time. You can buy premium time with the doubloons that dropped, or use the doubloons for more crates.

It gets better every year:

The list carries over to next year, so when we have more money, we can pick up where we stopped. As long as you earn all the free event ships (like Oklahoma, etc), you won't have to climb over them. It will be almost pure great premium ships after that.

It's not for those who won't spend at least $300 every single year.

You're not going to get past the wall and up the list of premiums to the legendary ships on anything less than $300 a year. Over five years I've given wargaming $2000. Sounds crazy, right? But that's still $1 a day. Have a phone? At $40 a month that's $2500 with taxes in the same amount of time.

Shove $1 a day in a jar. You're worth it.

It's harder for new players:

I have the advantage that I've been doing this since 2016 when the list of trash to climb was breathtakingly short. Every year after the other was easier and easier, as the list gets shorter. 

A sure thing, something a gambler loves:

Imagine if every hand of blackjack or pull of a slot gave you a nice coffee mug, or some K-cups. That's what the Christmas crates do, it's good stuff even when you "lose".

This is maximizing return for your money. If you buy 3 premiums a year, you're already at $240. $365 isn't really that much of a stretch.

 

Good luck whaling, the proper way, and see you in game. 

 

 

Aloha,

VERY good analysis, however, one thing I would like to add, the mechanics in HOW the rewards work in the Santa Crates has NOT changed in years....

I believe 2016 was the last year you could get dupes with doubloon compensation, I am trying to dig to get a definitive answer. Unfortunately, some of our more colorful public figures will FAIL to mention this as it essentially defuses a lot of their inflammatory language.

-Hapa

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Honestly I consider about 25% of the drops to be really worthwhile. My experience was about 12% ships, 6% doubloons, 6% coal, and 1% premium time. Truthfully I don't want premium time, but otherwise all four of those things are high-value for most people. So although you are only getting about 12% ships, I think about 1 in 4 Big crates is giving you something you did want, and the other 75% of the time you are getting something that is useful.

I do the same strategy the OP is doing, and the 'booby prize' camos and special signals mean I can run econ camos in every PvP or Scenario game I play all year, and the special signals can be used for specific grinding if I need to shoot up a tech tree line or crank out FXP. 

This year as a result, the majority of the fifteen ships I got were Tier VIII, and I got two rares as well.

Is it disappointing to realize this on your first Christmas event? Maybe, but that's where I was last Christmas, and I learned rapidly and prepared all year for this Christmas, and that paid off well.

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2 hours ago, Cit_the_bed said:

TLDR; You have to spend $360 a year to make it work. Stop reading if you can't afford $1 a day for entertainment. 

 

Let me start out by saying that the Christmas crates are misunderstood. 80-90% of the time you will only get camouflages, flags, free xp, coal, and premium time. You are still getting something of very very good value.

If you stack dragon flags in clan battles, you can easily make 20,000 xp/fxp per win. This gets you fast progress, free xp, and the freexp ships. People who are saying they got "nothing" are ignoring the obvious mathematical chances for blind hope of a miracle.

MIRACLES DON'T HAPPEN IN A CASINO. It's all pre-ordained, mathematically.

90% of the time the contents are the EXPECTED reward. The ship chance is a very nice bonus. If you use the math, you can benefit immensely.

 

Some history:

 

Since 2016, it has always been known that there is a wall of trash ships you get before you get a re-roll and a premium containers. In fact, in 2016, you could get multiple copies of the same ship. I got three SIMS in a row in 2016. People were getting 3-5 EMDENS. The trade off was in 2016, you got the

full doubloon value of the ships. People made enough to just buy ships outright, so the outrage was minimal.

Here we are in 2020, and people are mostly new players who don't know how the previous years worked, and wargaming, forgetting that it's NOT the same player base anymore, assumed people knew about the trash ship wall, and forgot to mention it this year.

This is the hole they dug for themselves. This is not what this post is about, however.


It is time to decide: Are you willing to spend money on the 1 in 10 chance of a ship? If your answer is no, go to the store and just buy your ship of choice. If you are a person of chance, who is willing to climb the wall of trash to the promised land, then read on.

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Let's take a chance while still getting good stuff.

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The Christmas crates have 12-18% chance of a ship. This is PER crate, and not a guarantee! 

Approximately 88% of the time you will not get a ship. The normal rewards need to be enough for you to be happy. Stop if it's not.  

Appreciating the normal rewards:

This year I used all the dragon flags and camouflages from xmas to make millions of xp and free xp. I reset research bureau enough to get Ohio, get my Smaland, push directly to Petropavlovsk from T8, push multiple captains to 19 points, and be one line reset from getting Slava. This alone was worth what I spent.

Every win goes from 5000xp to 20,000xp, and I progress four times faster at everything but coal and steel, which are pretty much set by skill in ranked and clan battles.

The math of the gamble: 

1 in 10 is amazingly good odds, better than any casino in the world. A slot machine generally has 1% chance. If you lose at a casino you get nothing. In warships, you still get very good items. It's a win/win situation.

How do you benefit from the trash ship list?

You should realize that when you own all the ships on that list, you will get amazing ships in supercontainers.

You should realize the trash list is pretty short.

You should realize most of the "trash" ships aren't really trash. They are just low tier, and usually the best of their tier.

You should realize that all premium ships have better economics and can take captains without retraining them. Almost every premium you get will be worth playing. Don't fixate on one ship!

You should stick to big presents and not mega, what you are buying is more chances at ships. The appx 5% chance difference between mega and big presents is not worth 50% more cost. It's better to get more chances, by getting more big presents. 

How to maximize your gamble for the best return:

I set a limit of $1 per day for warships, this is money I spend only at Christmas. That's roughly $360. Yikes! That's too much! It's time to head to the premium store to buy your one ship for the year. 

Still here? $1 a day will get you a plain hamburger at McDonalds with no drink. It won't even get you a cup of coffee. $1 a day in nothing, and you know it. 

 

Climbing the list to glory:

Buying single presents one at a time seems to have worse odds. We know they do things behind the scenes. I can tell you from experiments that the big bundles will get you at least 1-2 ships, while 20 single purchases get you nothing.

My personal take is they have a minimum number they bake into the big bundles so people won't get angry and stop buying. That said, we're going to act like we're using the stated odds of 12% per crate.

The trash pile:

If the trash list is 4-5 ships, we need at the minimum, 80 crates to satisfy that. That's $200. You're going to get more camos, flags, and coal than most players get in a year. This amount of crates should get you past the wall.

The silver mine: 

If you have pushed past the trash, you'll know because you will get supercontainers instead of ships in presents. A supercontainer means the crate looks to the list, and either lands on the ship you have on an incomplete list, or lands on your full list, and hands you

a supercontainer instead. In general, that means you will have roughly a 1 in 100 chance of getting that special single ship off the list. In reality, it guards certain ships and only gives them last. I have found that it will march up the tiers within a 

bracket and won't give the ultra special ships until you deplete that pool of normal premiums. That sounds depressing, right? Not really, because the ships you will be getting are good ships like Tirpitz, Alabama, West Virginia, and more.

Realize that once you get past the trash list, every ship you get represents a $30-80 value per ship. 

The gold mine, or when to whale:

So we used $200 to get a stupendous pile of camos and other goodies, and we got 4-5 nice low tier "trash" premiums in the "trash list". We will now use our remaining $160 to get 60 more crates. We will go to the armory and use the doubloons we earned to buy 10-20 more crates.

If the 1 in 10 holds true, our 70-80 crates will get us 6-8 premiums from the list. Worst case scenario you might get only 4 or 5.  At $30-80 a ship that can be anywhere from $240 to $640 worth of ships. Remember each ship comes with a ten point captain!

We are now at the point where spending money will generate more "value" than we spend. The only limit at that point is how much money you want to spend. SET A BUDGET, it's too easy to just click and buy, the reality is this is real money. 

The list shrinks, the rewards get better:

The more ships you have, the less room it has to avoid the legendary ships like Missouri, kamikaze, enterprise, and more. As it depletes the ranks of normal premiums, it will begrudgingly give up the best ships. At the end, it will give out the freexp and coal ships.

We hit our set limit, it's time to stop.

We spent our $360, and got probably 10 premiums for it, a massive heap of camos, dragon flags, coal, and premium time. You can buy premium time with the doubloons that dropped, or use the doubloons for more crates.

It gets better every year:

The list carries over to next year, so when we have more money, we can pick up where we stopped. As long as you earn all the free event ships (like Oklahoma, etc), you won't have to climb over them. It will be almost pure great premium ships after that.

It's not for those who won't spend at least $300 every single year.

You're not going to get past the wall and up the list of premiums to the legendary ships on anything less than $300 a year. Over five years I've given wargaming $2000. Sounds crazy, right? But that's still $1 a day. Have a phone? At $40 a month that's $2500 with taxes in the same amount of time.

Shove $1 a day in a jar. You're worth it.

It's harder for new players:

I have the advantage that I've been doing this since 2016 when the list of trash to climb was breathtakingly short. Every year after the other was easier and easier, as the list gets shorter. 

A sure thing, something a gambler loves:

Imagine if every hand of blackjack or pull of a slot gave you a nice coffee mug, or some K-cups. That's what the Christmas crates do, it's good stuff even when you "lose".

This is maximizing return for your money. If you buy 3 premiums a year, you're already at $240. $365 isn't really that much of a stretch.

 

Good luck whaling, the proper way, and see you in game. 

 

 

I am not faulting your argument here. What I will say is that no one buys a lottery ticket to win $20 and Lottery corporations don't force you to win $20 dollars before you can win the millions. It's gouging, they are forcing a predetermined outcome for money. All they need do is before the first crate was sold. Make the ships equally Random. Meaning that the shortlist doesn't exist. Fair play dictates that every player get a fair shake at every boat on the list. But your right, WG doesn't have to re roll, so there is that.

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15 minutes ago, Hapa_Fodder said:

Aloha,

VERY good analysis, however, one thing I would like to add, the mechanics in HOW the rewards work in the Santa Crates has NOT changed in years....

I believe 2016 was the last year you could get dupes with doubloon compensation, I am trying to dig to get a definitive answer. Unfortunately, some of our more colorful public figures will FAIL to mention this as it essentially defuses a lot of their inflammatory language.

-Hapa

2017 might have been the last year.

2018 was my first Christmas season in WOWs, and lack of doubloons for dupes seemed a big deal.

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3 minutes ago, DrHolmes52 said:

2017 might have been the last year.

2018 was my first Christmas season in WOWs, and lack of doubloons for dupes seemed a big deal.

All I know is, I've been playing since Alpha, and have ALWAYS bought a large pack of containers every year and as a result before I started working for WG I got almost ALL the premium ships. (YES I'M A RECOVERING WHALE!)

-Hapa

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As a whale still in the water,  I can confirm the strategy here works. I added to that strategy two years back, when there was a doubloon sale of cheap premiums on the tech tree list in the game. Also, the premium shop has a fair number of ships under $15 each that would otherwise be on the list. I picked up one or two each month while that was going on. it snowballed to the point where, when the 2020 crates were announced, there was exactly one ship out of the 107 that I did not have, Neustrashimy. I bought 8 crates, and Neustrashimy popped out of the 7th. 

This way requires time and a bit of patience, and it isn't for everybody. But I like my fleet, and I like having as many options as possible to play.

Good luck and good hunting!

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It's no different from common, uncommon, rare and extremely-rare gachas.

 

Roll the dice, hope you get the rare stuff, but don't complain as you pulled the trigger.

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2 hours ago, Battlecruiser_Yavuz said:

For some, $360 is a lot.

It is, but I think the OP qualified it well in the first paragraph. "If you can afford to put aside a dollar a day toward WOWS, here is my method."

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Good Morning!

I save $10 a week in my strongbox, which isn't too bad, so I have a cap of $520 a year. 

But - that is a hard cap as well.  That much and no more.  Some people work well that way, knowing they have this 'fun money' set aside, but it also gives them a reasonable limit.

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