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BoghieWanKanobie

The Shortlist Test

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Ok, I've been thinking this through.  As I'm seeing this issue:

A Shortlist is a Gated entry to the main list.  You cannot get a main list ship till a shortlist requirement is met.  Many believe that each type of crate has an associated shortlist.  The Mega crate supposedly has a four ship shortlist.  Thus, the 'requirement' is to own or get dropped all four.  Who knows.  That muddles things.

It would, however, actually be simpler to test a full odds based distribution.  If the drops are purely odds based someone will have received a main list ship in their first true Santa Crate drop.

Let us simplify.  I am ONLY interested in the first ship to drop.  I am only interested in a true Santa Crate drop.  So, the most stable question to ask:

If you did not own some of the following ships, did you get another ship on your first true Santa Crate drop (not a supercontainer replacement drop):

Tier VI Cruiser Admiral Makarov (Big Crate)
Tier VI Cruiser Duca d'Aousta (Mega Crate)
Tier VII Battleship California (Big Crate)
Tier VII Destroyer Yudachi (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Battleship Vanguard (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Cruiser Ochakov (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Destroyer Orkan (Big Crate)

If anyone without some/all of these ships got a first drop outside this list than it is odds based.  
If nobody got a main list ship as their first true drop than things look gated.

Regardless, the list provides demonstrates that the odds of getting another ship early are absolute trash.  That, too, is ugly in its own way. 

If you meet the criteria please enter the ship you received and the type of crate. 
You DO NOT meet the criteria if your Santa Crate converted to a Supercontainer.
Please leave the comments open for the requested information.  We will be able to use the data that way.

Edited by BoghieWanKanobie

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Got Indomitable from a small crate. E Low and Ochakov from mega and nothing from the big crates. On the list I don't own California.

Edited by Sovereigndawg

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17 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

Please leave the comments open for the requested information.  We will be able to use the data that way.

cant test without the gifted crates first

so you need to send me 20 Mega Santa Crates, 20 Santa Crates and I will let your know the results

 

I had almost all the prem ships. From the rare list, I don't have grem/imperator nikolai/fujin/Belfast/kut. From the general list, I don't have Poltava, ork, pagra, you know the so call short list for Santa crate; I had enough to buy neu/Flint if I wanted to, but decided not to do so; so this is the perfect opportunity for me to test it for you. I had the Marakov <-- :Smile_playing:

 

regards,

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My first 20 big crates I pulled the Makarov, Orkan (think your spreadsheet is off above, Orkan is linked to big crates) and a Siliwangi. My next 20 big crates I got the California.

I’d say I pretty much fit the profile of a shortlist recipient...

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From what I’ve experienced with these crates. They’re rigged to give you a lot of meh ships before you get anything decent. Even if you whale $500, you’ll get your value in ships but more than likely get a lot of T6-T8 ships that are often given away for free or as reward ships anyways. These containers aren’t really random either as has been shown several time’s over the last few days.

For the newer players to this game that don’t have a lot of a premiums. You’ll get screwed. Don’t expect to get any of the rare ships unless you’re willing to spend $1000+ on these crates which is just ridiculous.

Even of the so called “rare” ships, a lot of them have been so powercrept that they’re not worth it.

You can grind credits with any tier 9 premium. Belfast used to be good before the armour/ifhe rework. Now there’s so many ships to counter it. Nikolai is tier 4. T4 with the skill level of players today gets boring quick. Enterprise is still really strong but there’s so many changes with CV’s now  who know what will happen.

For the money it would take to get a “rare” ship. Buy a couple decent premiums. You’ll be way better off.

Keep in mind, learning the game and getting better at tactics and gameplay will always be better than trying to replace lack of understanding of this game with a supposedly OP ship.

Edited by Bortt
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32 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

Ok, I've been thinking this through.  As I'm seeing this issue:

A Shortlist is a Gated entry to the main list.  You cannot get a main list ship till a shortlist requirement is met.  Many believe that each type of crate has an associated shortlist.  The Mega crate supposedly has a four ship shortlist.  Thus the 'requirement' is to own or get dropped all four.  Who knows.  That muddles things.

It would, however, actually be simpler to test a full odds based distribution.  If the drops are purely odds based someone will have received a main list ship in their first true Santa Crate drop.

Let us simplify.  I am ONLY interested in the first ship to drop.  I am only interested in a true Santa Crate drop.  So, the most stable question to ask:

If you did not own some of the following ships, did you get another ship on your first true Santa Crate drop (not a supercontainer replacement drop):

Tier VI Cruiser Admiral Makarov (Big Crate)
Tier VI Cruiser Duca d'Aousta (Big Crate)
Tier VII Battleship California (Big Crate)
Tier VII Destroyer Yudachi (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Battleship Vanguard (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Cruiser Ochakov (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Destroyer Orkan (Mega Crate)

If anyone without some/all of these ships got a first drop outside this list than it is odds based.  
If nobody got a main list ship as their first true drop than things look gated.

Regardless, the list provides demonstrates that the odds of getting another ship early are absolute trash.  That, too, is ugly in its own way. 

If you meet the criteria please enter the ship you received and the type of crate. 
You DO NOT meet the criteria if your Santa Crate converted to a Supercontainer.
Please leave the comments open for the requested information.  We will be able to use the data that way.

You only need 1 of the short list ships to be able to start dropping other ships from that container type (big/mega/etc).

Might wanna edit that out as it does "muddle things" & has been verified multiple times in other threads you only need 1 of them.

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2 minutes ago, IfYouSeeKhaos said:

short list ships

 

55 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

seeing this issue

 

this is so wrong already. I was waiting for the crates from the OP so I can test it for him, but cant see any. So I went ahead and purchased 20 Mega Santa Crates

Got siliwangi and z35 or whatever t8 german dd.

 

I don't have the Orkan, Ochakov, California but they didn't drop for me from my Mega Santa Crates, as OP listed in his short list. To further test OP pointed if getting short listed ship acting as gateway for other prem ship chance to drop, still need OP to send more Mega/Big Santa crates tho.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, cgbosn4 said:

My first 20 big crates I pulled the Makarov, Orkan (think your spreadsheet is off above, Orkan is linked to big crates) and a Siliwangi. My next 20 big crates I got the California.

I’d say I pretty much fit the profile of a shortlist recipient...

Once you have just 1 short list ship you can pull any other ship from a super container if you roll the 1 you have again...including a short list ship from the other list...

IOW...once you had the Makarov it is possible to pull the Orkan from a big crate...it will just come in the form of a super container instead of a Santa container.

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8 minutes ago, ObiphanKenobi said:

 

 

this is so wrong already. I was waiting for the crates from the OP so I can test it for him, but cant see any. So I went ahead and purchased 20 Mega Santa Crates

Got siliwangi and z35 or whatever t8 german dd.

 

I don't have the Orkan, Ochakov, California but they didn't drop for me from my Mega Santa Crates, as OP listed in his short list. To further test OP pointed if getting short listed ship acting as gateway for other prem ship chance to drop, still need OP to send more Mega/Big Santa crates tho.

 

 

Orkan, California, and Makarov are the "shortlist" ships from the big crates.  Yuudachi, Duca d'Aosta, Vanguard, and Ochakov are the "shortlist" ships from the mega crates.  To date, I have yet to see anyone report getting any ship other than those directly from a Santa crate.  All other ships have come out of supercontainers, indicating that they were duplicates.

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15 minutes ago, ObiphanKenobi said:

 

 

this is so wrong already. I was waiting for the crates from the OP so I can test it for him, but cant see any. So I went ahead and purchased 20 Mega Santa Crates

Got siliwangi and z35 or whatever t8 german dd.

I don't have the Orkan, Ochakov, California but they didn't drop for me from my Mega Santa Crates, as OP listed in his short list. To further test OP pointed if getting short listed ship acting as gateway for other prem ship chance to drop, still need OP to send more Mega/Big Santa crates tho.

OP didn't list California in his short list of mega crates...the top 3 (including California) are all listed as big crates...not mega...

But I agree...he would have a lot more examples if he was to gift us all the crates :-)

Just to clarify...are you saying you got the siliwang & Z35 from Santa crates...or did they drop from super crates (based on what is already known...guessing super crates)?

You also didn't clarify (but based on what is also already known) guessing you already have the Yudachi &/or Vanguard...which either 1 is all that is necessary to start getting other ship drops.

Edited by IfYouSeeKhaos

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4 minutes ago, ObiphanKenobi said:

this is so wrong already. I was waiting for the crates from the OP so I can test it for him, but cant see any. So I went ahead and purchased 20 Mega Santa Crates

Got siliwangi and z35 or whatever t8 german dd.

I don't have the Orkan, Ochakov, California but they didn't drop for me from my Mega Santa Crates, as OP listed in his short list. To further test OP pointed if getting short listed ship acting as gateway for other prem ship chance to drop, still need OP to send more Mega/Big Santa crates tho.

I'll break this out -  "I don't have the Orkan, Ochakov, California"

  • The California is on the supposed Big Crate shortlist
  • The Ochakov is on the Mega Crate shortlist
  • I'll check on the Orkan and update the thread if necessary.

@ObiphanKenobi stated "but they didn't drop for me from my Mega Santa Crates".  He got the Siliwangi, the Z35, and a Tier VIII German DD.

Thus, he (assuming) doesn't have the Ochakov, but got three main list ships and NEVER filled the shortlist.  That trends against a shortlist and for odds based drop selection.  If the event is gated it should be gated.

 

Now @Sovereigndawg stated:  Got Indomitable from a small crate. E Low and Ochakov from mega and nothing from the big crates. On the list I don't own California.  His example demonstrates an odds based event if the event does not have discrete shortlists for each crate category.  I don't know what the supposed shortlist is for the small crates.  But the Ochakov is on the Mega shortlist.  Actually, that is of interest.  If he/she got the E Low before the Ochakov in Mega crates than we are talking odds based.

 

Now, I guess folks are also weakening the criteria for a gated event.  I fall directly into what @IfYouSeeKhaos describes.  I got a Yudachi in my first drop and a main lister later.  So, if this is a very whimpy and weak gated event then whatever.  Not much of a gate there.

 

And @ObiphanKenobi, I'm past tensing this because I don't want anyone to grind their cash to test it.  If the event IS odds based and NOT gated than someone who doesn't own a gate keeper will have a first ship drop that is a main lister.  I think you fit the bill with your example.

 

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1 minute ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

I'll check on the Orkan and update the thread if necessary.

You need to swap Duca d'Aosta and Orkan on your list.  Orkan is a Big Gift drop and Aosta is a Mega Gift drop.

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Confirmation from my side, bought a few big crates with leftover doubloons from black friday.

I had none of the big crate shortlist ship, I now have Makarov directly through the container. Not sure how to feel about this...

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13 minutes ago, IfYouSeeKhaos said:

Just to clarify...are you saying you got the siliwang & Z35 from Santa crates...or did they drop from super crates (based on what is already known...guessing super crates)?

You also didn't clarify (but based on what is also already known) guessing you already have the Yudachi &/or Vanguard...which either 1 is all that is necessary to start getting other ship drops.

I had most of the prem ships <-- from my first reply, these are result from many previous years Mega Santa Crates

 

When I bough the Mega Santa Crates, because, you know, OP didn't send me crates to test for him, I open all container at once option; they gave me Siliwangi and Z35.

 

6 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

someone who doesn't own a gate keeper will have a first ship drop that is a main

My current is the best to test your theory by the way. these 3 ships I don't have, yet 2 of them are short list. However, opening my Mega Crate doesn't get them. I don't buy Big crate, so I cant test the California. Some of the ships possibly drop from Big Crates I don't have so it is perfect to also test this SHORT LIST THEORY as well

Tier VIII Destroyer Orkan (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Cruiser Ochakov (Mega Crate)

Tier VII

Battleship

California (Big Crate)

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Just now, BoghieWanKanobie said:

@IfYouSeeKhaos, everything I have read states that you have to get all the ships.

You do not.  Once you have at least one shortlist ship, you can get duplicates (which rolls a ship from the complete list).  I can personally confirm this.  I had none of the shortlist ships.  In my first pack of Mega gifts, I got Yuudachi, Duca d'Aosta, Duke of York (out of a supercontainer), and Vanguard (out of a supercontainer - so it was a duplicate despite being on the shortlist).  My second pack dropped Roma and Ark Royal out of supercontainers, followed by Ochakov directly from a crate.

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13 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

@IfYouSeeKhaoseverything I have read states that you have to get all the ships.

@ObiphanKenobi, were the three ships you received converted to super containers?  Or, were they virgin Mega Santa Crates?

Sorry...but you haven't read enough to get all of the data then.

I'm not saying I have seen all of the related threads...but I have seen dozens of them & in many many replies the need to get all of the short list ships has been debunked numerous times (sometimes numerous times in just a single thread).

As for Obiphan:

10 minutes ago, ObiphanKenobi said:

I open all container at once option

Opening all at once doesn't let you know what kind of containers anything came from so is unfortunately useless for your desired experiment.

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1 minute ago, Fel0niusMonk said:

You do not.  Once you have at least one shortlist ship, you can get duplicates (which rolls a ship from the complete list).  I can personally confirm this.  I had none of the shortlist ships.  In my first pack of Mega gifts, I got Yuudachi, Duca d'Aosta, Duke of York (out of a supercontainer), and Vanguard (out of a supercontainer - so it was a duplicate despite being on the shortlist).  My second pack dropped Roma and Ark Royal out of supercontainers, followed by Ochakov directly from a crate.

What was the order of the Mega ship drops?

That is why I am ONLY interested in the first ship drop.  If it is a shortlister than it can be duplicated - or the drop can duplicate another premium ship you own.  There can be no real test for that.

Obiphankanobie pulled three ships - NONE from the shortlist.

Now, if the concept of a gated event is watered down to a gate of one ship than the only test could be from someone like me (not now, I own a shortlister) who owns none of the ships.  I bet that is a rare breed around here.  If so, that is a lot of work to do when all you have to do is set the odds on drops.  To me, that makes the nefarious shortlist highly unlikely.

Anyway, let us save the comments for folks who meet the criteria, not commentary.  We can clean the data.

 

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16 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

You guys were correct on the ship crates.  Changed the topic list to reflect that.

I haven't heard what all of the regular Santa container short list ships are yet but know for certain London is 1 of them (& based on the frequency of hearing about it guessing it's the most common & belongs at the top of the list...just like Makarov is definitely the most common of the big crate ships.

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Yeah I think this is only worth it if you have been playing the game for years now and have spent a reasonable ammount of money into the game in that period of time, so that you have at least some of the ships of the "small list" and maybe some of the "normal list" so you at least have a (very small) chance of getting something good, like a Missouri or an Enterprise. But let's be honest, if you've spent any ammount of money to get those lower tier ships that serve as a "filter" then might also own most of the top tier ships that most people want anyways. So I see no real reason to spend that much money to "try your luck" since most of the people who want to get ships that are discontinued or "rare" like Jean Bart, Missouri, Enterprise, etc, are usually people who haven't played the game for that long (myself included) and obviously don't own most of the ships of the "short lists"

Even if you own one ship of that short list, you have to be lucky enough to get a ship from a container AND that ship has to be the same one you own. So I own Duca D'aosta, to get a chance to get any other premium I'd have to buy a mega container (the most expensive one), be lucky enough to get a ship from said container, and then be twice as lucky so that the ship I get is the one that I already own, which reduces drastically the percentage of getting any "okay" ship, thus impossible for people who have little to no premium ships.

Really scummy WG...

Edited by FrancisVonBismarck

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7 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

What was the order of the Mega ship drops?

That is why I am ONLY interested in the first ship drop.  If it is a shortlister than it can be duplicated - or the drop can duplicate another premium ship you own.  There can be no real test for that.

Obiphankanobie pulled three ships - NONE from the shortlist.

Now, if the concept of a gated event is watered down to a gate of one ship than the only test could be from someone like me (not now, I own a shortlister) who owns none of the ships.  I bet that is a rare breed around here.  If so, that is a lot of work to do when all you have to do is set the odds on drops.  To me, that makes the nefarious shortlist highly unlikely.

Anyway, let us save the comments for folks who meet the criteria, not commentary.  We can clean the data.

 

Again...Obiphan does not meet the criteria because he opened all of the crates at once so he didn't actually receive any of those ships from actual Santa crates as the "open all crates" option does not let you know what kind of crate any of the items you received are from.

He also stated in a later post that he has most of the ships already w/out clarifying if any of them are short list ships (of which he would only need 1).

You should edit the part in your OP about needing all of the short list ships as it is not correct.

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I

2 hours ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

Ok, I've been thinking this through.  As I'm seeing this issue:

A Shortlist is a Gated entry to the main list.  You cannot get a main list ship till a shortlist requirement is met.  Many believe that each type of crate has an associated shortlist.  The Mega crate supposedly has a four ship shortlist.  Thus, the 'requirement' is to own or get dropped all four.  Who knows.  That muddles things.

It would, however, actually be simpler to test a full odds based distribution.  If the drops are purely odds based someone will have received a main list ship in their first true Santa Crate drop.

Let us simplify.  I am ONLY interested in the first ship to drop.  I am only interested in a true Santa Crate drop.  So, the most stable question to ask:

If you did not own some of the following ships, did you get another ship on your first true Santa Crate drop (not a supercontainer replacement drop):

Tier VI Cruiser Admiral Makarov (Big Crate)
Tier VI Cruiser Duca d'Aousta (Mega Crate)
Tier VII Battleship California (Big Crate)
Tier VII Destroyer Yudachi (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Battleship Vanguard (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Cruiser Ochakov (Mega Crate)
Tier VIII Destroyer Orkan (Big Crate)

If anyone without some/all of these ships got a first drop outside this list than it is odds based.  
If nobody got a main list ship as their first true drop than things look gated.

Regardless, the list provides demonstrates that the odds of getting another ship early are absolute trash.  That, too, is ugly in its own way. 

If you meet the criteria please enter the ship you received and the type of crate. 
You DO NOT meet the criteria if your Santa Crate converted to a Supercontainer.

Please leave the comments open for the requested information.  We will be able to use the data that way.

 I HIGHLY recommend reading this from the sister forum

https://forum.worldofwarships.eu/topic/144312-preliminary-look-at-santas-crates-statistics-collected-by-our-forumite-black_falcon120/

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So from the short list I already had Duca, California, and Yudachi. First ship I got was Vanguard, followed by Kronstadt in a SC, but then got Ochakov soon after. After then whaling for a bit more than I'd like to admit, I got Gascogne, Viribus, E. Loewen, and Cossack from non SC drops, and Kamikaze, Atlanta, that Argentinian Helena I cant remember the name of, Ashitaka, Benham and Mikoyan from SCs. While I'm still very disappointed in WG's actions this year, I can't say I'm entirely unsatisfied with getting something as rare as Kron and kamikaze for my collection. 

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26 minutes ago, IfYouSeeKhaos said:

unfortunately useless

OP did not say how to open the crates, I was in a hurry, so the best option for me is quick button click :Smile_sad:

 

for him to test it, send me 20 crates each and I will sit down open 1 by 1 :Smile_teethhappy: :Smile_trollface: :Smile_playing: maybe this time will be more accurate test result OP desire

 

 

End of it, honestly, when it come to Santa crates, you need to learn how to accept whatever the crate give, extra ship is bonus, cherry on top of ice cream.

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