Okay, for the curious, here's my twenty bigs.

[Ensign_Cthulhu]

When I started, the only ship I had on either of the mega or big shortlists was the Yudachi.

Results in order are:

1. 15 Ouroboros flags.

2. 12 Frosty Fir Tree camo.

3. 15 New Year camo.

4. 12 New Year Streamer camo.

5. 15 Wyvern flags.

6. 1000 doubloons.

7. 15 Basilisk flags.

8. 15 Scylla flags.

9. 15 Ouroboros flags.

10. 12 Winter Strands camos. 

11. MAKAROV and 10-point captain (looks like the stories are true, guys, but I'm not at all upset to have this in my port).

12. 15 x Basilisk flags.

13. 7500 coal (that brings me several days closer to having Flint).

14. 15 Type 3 New Year camos.

15. SUPERCONTAINER with Duca D'Aosta and a 10 point captain. (I have so many premiums it's not funny; it didn't necessarily bounce off the Makarov.)

16. 15 Type 3 New Year camos.

17. 15 Basilisk flags.

18. 15 Type 3 New Year camos.

19. 1000 doubloons.

20. 12 Frosty Fir Tree camos.

 

GAINED VALUE: Duca D'Aosta's duplicate-purchase value is given as 4700 doubloons, and Makarov, not currently sold, is probably close to this. Add a port slot to each and call them 5000 apiece.

 10 point captains are 1500 doubloons in the armory, so that's another 3000 dubs.

Add two lots of 1K dubs, and that's 15,000 doubloons before you start trying to work out the flag and coal equivalent values (if you think it is valid to do so).

15 K dubs is CDN $75.60, which is exactly what the "non-discounted value" of the 20 crates is given as, but I actually paid 20% less than that. So I broke better than even, and next year there will be two fewer Tier 6 ships I have to work through.

[Herr_Reitz]

So nothing surprising here then? Or perhaps it would be safe to say, "Ships? As expected." 

I know you want us all to see it really is "fair"... but to the community at large, it isn't. 

Thanks for sharing. 

[BoghieWanKanobie]

Well, there you go.  Positive net flow.

My first was the Yudachi - which is a high odds drop for the Mega crates

My second was the Exeter - which implies that either the Gate is ONE ship or there is NO gate and the algorithm just uses odds (likely)

If all my coal, camos, and flags net me a $17 value than I am even.  Personally, I think I am way over even.  I also feelz I did a bit better last year but I am not disappointed.

My only disappointment is that my new Yudachi was rated by LWM as Garbage.  But, I think she fits my needs well.  Hopefully, she can float around and sink a few before she is taken out.  I really needed a premium to help with captains training in the IJN DD line - and the 10pt captain is a blessing since I am at the split.

So, had fun opening them and will have fun using them.  Got two loud toys so that is like every kids Christmas.  Why do the grandparents always give the kids loud toys.  Got some batteries to keep the loud toys loud for quite some time.  Got some cash for my secret desires.  Got some coal for more loud toys or more batteries.  All good

[FrodoFraggin]

The Makarov thing I find funny because originally the thing went on sale for a short time, very few people bought it, and it appeared to be a very rare ship.  When it came back on sale, I got it for the sheer quirkiness (and I don’t half mind the Nurnberg...). Now they’re being handed out in droves, which is costing it some of its charm for weirdos like me.  

[warheart1992]

I got out of 8 big gifts 3x camos, 2x 1k doubloons, then Makarov, California, and Marblehead Lima from a supercontainer. This places me at a 37.5% ship drop chance. Thing is that my results when pitted against the average drop chances are far beyond normal. But this doesn't matter because, somewhere, someone got 20 big gifts and got 0 ships.

Bottom line, me and you pulled the lever and profited, there are far more others that pulled the lever and lost.

[Sovereigndawg]

24 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

someone got 20 big gifts and got 0 ships.

Oh, your the one who got my big gift draw. I got Indomitable from 40 smalls. I got Lowenhardt  and Ochakov from 20 mega and nothing (as far as ships go) from 20 big.

[BoghieWanKanobie]

19 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

I got out of 8 big gifts 3x camos, 2x 1k doubloons, then Makarov, California, and Marblehead Lima from a supercontainer. This places me at a 37.5% ship drop chance. Thing is that my results when pitted against the average drop chances are far beyond normal. But this doesn't matter because, somewhere, someone got 20 big gifts and got 0 ships.

Bottom line, me and you pulled the lever and profited, there are far more others that pulled the lever and lost.

Not really,

Two of your ships are on The Shortlist of Crap from Hell that Wargaming made you get before you got the Mighty Marblehead.

The ships - even those - are of higher value to guys and gals that like to float around on the Pixel Seas than the mundane doubloons, coal, camos, and flags.  But, when you actually cost out the mundane those folks did quite well.  And, if you look at the thread where everybody got a lump of coal most of the comments aren't from people who only got the lump but were instead by the Do-Gooders who commiserate about those who got the lump.  I read a number of pages about how sad it must have been for the millions of players who got stuck with Frosty Fir Tree camos (but hundreds of them, yuk, yuk).  Not that many from folks listing their flop.

[Essayons89]

I'll buy some of the crates my next couple paydays but I'm not going into it expecting ships. Looking to stock up on some of the special signal flags, more camo, and maybe get lucky with a bit of coal and doubloons.

[Gabriel_LXIX]

Has LWM done a Makarov review,  now would be a good time

[warheart1992]

7 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

Not really,

Two of your ships are on The Shortlist of Crap from Hell that Wargaming made you get before you got the Mighty Marblehead.

The ships - even those - are of higher value to guys and gals that like to float around on the Pixel Seas than the mundane doubloons, coal, camos, and flags.  But, when you actually cost out the mundane those folks did quite well.  And, if you look at the thread where everybody got a lump of coal most of the comments aren't from people who only got the lump but were instead by the Do-Gooders who commiserate about those who got the lump.  I read a number of pages about how sad it must have been for the millions of players who got stuck with Frosty Fir Tree camos (but hundreds of them, yuk, yuk).  Not that many from folks listing their flop.

I'm not looking at the ships themselves performance wise, but at the fact that I got ship drops. Considering others had to open much more than my measly 8 containers I was far much successful. I agree that flags etc got a value of their own, but there's a reason WG advertises these containers for ship drops and not the doubloons or camouflage they drop.

[BoghieWanKanobie]

3 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

I'm not looking at the ships themselves performance wise, but at the fact that I got ship drops. Considering others had to open much more than my measly 8 containers I was far much successful. I agree that flags etc got a value of their own, but there's a reason WG advertises these containers for ship drops and not the doubloons or camouflage they drop.

Truth.  I think the best I have seen is that the odds of a ship being dropped in the Big containers is 8% (maybe 10%).  So grabbing three is awesome.  And, they might be crap for the Super Unicum, but for us they are likely workable to good.  I kinda wanted the Marakov so I would have an easier time running up the Soviet Cruiser line.  Instead I got the Exeter so I will run up the British Cruiser line.

Folks will be torqued if they don't get a ship, but if they think about it critically they came out way ahead.  It has to work like that or some of the folks in this Forum who are slip and fall lawyers would sue Wargaming hoping for a big payout.  Wargaming needs to guarantee that the slip and fall lawyer and bored politicians would get beat over the head early in the lawsuit process by the Magical Spreadsheet.  That Magical Spreadsheet would have to QUICKLY PROVE value over cost.  If it didn't they would have to pay lawyers to fight it.  Just the way it is in this litigious world, eh.

In all honesty - my experience is more in WoT - these Crates/Boxes have the biggest return on 'investment' available in the game.  If you don't go hog wild and spend your rent check you can set yourself for the entire year at a great sale price.  I did that last year in WoWS.  In WoT I got a tank drop - which turned out to be one of the best TDs available but I don't like TDs.  I would have been happier with the more mundane stuff.  But, there was much happiness anyway!!!

[Grey_Paladin]

23 minutes ago, why_u_heff_to_be_mad said:

Has LWM done a Makarov review,  now would be a good time

Actually she has.  She called it a 'mehbote'.

 

[Farm_Fresh_Eggs]

Heres a collection of 9 x 20 mega's (so far):

 

The last three have zero ships because there none left for me to get.    Wanted the flags, camos, and coal.  Interesting that the coal amount is the same for all three.

The last set has two extra try-your-luck containers mixed in with it.

 

[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

1 hour ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

GAINED VALUE: Duca D'Aosta's duplicate-purchase value is given as 4700 doubloons, and Makarov, not currently sold, is probably close to this. Add a port slot to each and call them 5000 apiece.

 10 point captains are 1500 doubloons in the armory, so that's another 3000 dubs.

Add two lots of 1K dubs, and that's 15,000 doubloons before you start trying to work out the flag and coal equivalent values (if you think it is valid to do so).

15 K dubs is CDN $75.60, which is exactly what the "non-discounted value" of the 20 crates is given as, but I actually paid 20% less than that. So I broke better than even, and next year there will be two fewer Tier 6 ships I have to work through.

Price does not equal value when the goods are not allowed to be sold in a market.

Your analysis here is fundamentally flawed and is in league with WGs continued attempts to mislead the playerbase and regulators about the truth of the transactions.

Please cease being an accesory to WGs deceptions.

[DJC_499]

1 hour ago, FrodoFraggin said:

The Makarov thing I find funny because originally the thing went on sale for a short time, very few people bought it, and it appeared to be a very rare ship. 

In another post I was trying to remember exactly how I got one some years ago. I was thinking perhaps it was from a grind or perhaps one of those $4.99 "special sales" in the Premium Shop (sort like Yubari, etc...). As a humble PVE player I actually enjoy playing it. As I also noted, from time to time when I am playing it people will ask about it and note how they have never seen one before. I am pretty sure that will no longer be the case....

[warheart1992]

19 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

Truth.  I think the best I have seen is that the odds of a ship being dropped in the Big containers is 8% (maybe 10%).  So grabbing three is awesome.  And, they might be crap for the Super Unicum, but for us they are likely workable to good.  I kinda wanted the Marakov so I would have an easier time running up the Soviet Cruiser line.  Instead I got the Exeter so I will run up the British Cruiser line.

Folks will be torqued if they don't get a ship, but if they think about it critically they came out way ahead.  It has to work like that or some of the folks in this Forum who are slip and fall lawyers would sue Wargaming hoping for a big payout.  Wargaming needs to guarantee that the slip and fall lawyer and bored politicians would get beat over the head early in the lawsuit process by the Magical Spreadsheet.  That Magical Spreadsheet would have to QUICKLY PROVE value over cost.  If it didn't they would have to pay lawyers to fight it.  Just the way it is in this litigious world, eh.

In all honesty - my experience is more in WoT - these Crates/Boxes have the biggest return on 'investment' available in the game.  If you don't go hog wild and spend your rent check you can set yourself for the entire year at a great sale price.  I did that last year in WoWS.  In WoT I got a tank drop - which turned out to be one of the best TDs available but I don't like TDs.  I would have been happier with the more mundane stuff.  But, there was much happiness anyway!!!

BIg containers hover at around 10%+ for a ship, with mega containers on the 15-16% range.

The thing is that the christmas containers carry a huge legacy. In earlier years with far fewer premiums around a doubloon compensation rule for duplicates ship drops existed. Spending on a container did not only drop ships; it dropped large amounts of doubloons. Think getting the value of 3-4 Prinz Eugens in doubloons. Then due to a larger number and to be honest too generous drops the profitability of these containers started to diminish.

11 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Price does not equal value when the goods are not allowed to be sold in a market.

That's also very important; just because WG values a camouflage at 100 doubloons doesn't mean it's really worth it 100 doubloons. If it were so, then they could price a single camouflage 10k doubloons, put it in a container, have you pay 1$, then when you got a package of 10 of those you got a value of 100k doubloons. In absolute numbers that would be insane profitability, but in truth it's only profitable because WG says so since it controls the price. That's just silly. The things you can value in real life money in a container are the doubloons, premium time, premium ships. Basically whatever you can already get via the premium shop.

[paradat]

Nice results. I would like to see a little more coal but the intrinsic value is easily there. 

[DJC_499]

15 minutes ago, Farm_Fresh_Eggs said:

Heres a collection of 9 x 20 mega's (so far):

 

The last three have zero ships because there none left for me to get.    Wanted the flags, camos, and coal.  Interesting that the coal amount is the same for all three.

The last set has two extra try-your-luck containers mixed in with it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Congrats on the drops, especially as to the coal. That is quite an amount.

I was thinking about how many of these WG could have sold if instead of coal these dropped steel....

[paradat]

24 minutes ago, Farm_Fresh_Eggs said:

Heres a collection of 9 x 20 mega's (so far):

 

The last three have zero ships because there none left for me to get.    Wanted the flags, camos, and coal.  Interesting that the coal amount is the same for all three.

The last set has two extra try-your-luck containers mixed in with it.

 

Wow that was very helpful, thanks for sharing and nice results!

Now all of you stop it! I am trying to wait until after I open all the free crates.

So far my free crate results. Two Santa Containers 10k free xp and 50 Papa papa flags.

[KilljoyCutter]

1 hour ago, why_u_heff_to_be_mad said:

Has LWM done a Makarov review,  now would be a good time

It's basically Nurnberg with some Russian AA mounts, and one triple torp rack per side instead of two.

 

[KilljoyCutter]

I'm assuming all these "great" results people are posting are from purchased crates, and not anything free?

 

[Herr_Reitz]

This whole topic reminds me so much of the mothers/fathers of convicted criminals. So very many times they say "he's a good boy/girl" and "I don't believe it, he could not have done this." 

Yet he/she did do it. So often too with premeditated planning involved. You better believe they did it. If they ever hit the electric chair/gas chamber or the chems to end their life, the parents will say, "my poor baby, he did nothing wrong... nothing at all." 

The evidence will matter not to them. Even if they were videotaped doing the crime, they'll deny it. 

It would seem no matter how convincing the evidence may be, mom and dad still cling to the very, very tiny chance it is not their child. 

[KilljoyCutter]

17 minutes ago, Herr_Reitz said:

This whole topic reminds me so much of the mothers/fathers of convicted criminals. So very many times they say "he's a good boy/girl" and "I don't believe it, he could not have done this." 

Yet he/she did do it. So often too with premeditated planning involved. You better believe they did it. If they ever hit the electric chair/gas chamber or the chems to end their life, the parents will say, "my poor baby, he did nothing wrong... nothing at all." 

The evidence will matter not to them. Even if they were videotaped doing the crime, they'll deny it. 

It would seem no matter how convincing the evidence may be, mom and dad still cling to the very, very tiny chance it is not their child. 

When it comes to the way some players will defend WG to the bitter end, I think part of it is continuing to double down to protect their own egos, and their own sense of tribal belonging. 

If they admit WG is up to no good, they have to admit that they've been defending it, often viciously.

If they admit WG is up to no good, then their "tribe" of being on WG's side is a tribe of no good.

 

[iBrowEcc0]

WG can price a garbage ship at $30, a ship you would not ever buy, a ship even if you have would not play except a maiden voyage and snowflakes events. That's what drops from the loot box.

Did you get your money's worth?

 

[DDJohnston]

1 hour ago, why_u_heff_to_be_mad said:

Has LWM done a Makarov review,  now would be a good time

IIRC, it's Nuremburg, maybe with some Soviet equipment added.