Imagine if each ship had an equal chance of dropping

[MrSparkle]

How many more boxes they would sell. I don't know what possessed them to come up with this short list system but it caused a quick and loud backlash. But if they just gave every ship an equal chance of dropping no matter what, so many more people would be willing to spend money.

Maybe I'm just not business-savvy enough lol. I don't see the benefit in this short list compared to an equal chance, especially not when the gaming community discovers deceptions like this within hours. And I do consider it a deception, not unlike a casino rigging games in their favor (as if they aren't already in their favor), or using loaded dice.

[RipNuN2]

15 minutes ago, MrSparkle said:

 

They've had the same system since 2016. I just use them to restock camos and flags for the next year at a nice discount. Ships are a bonus.

[SilverPhatShips]

https://youtu.be/cZJoyUHMmQQ

[SeaCat_]

Imagine if each ship had an equal chance of dropping

The last thing Dimitri said before joining the unemployment line....

[Do_Doch_Nicht]

25 minutes ago, MrSparkle said:

How many more boxes they would sell. I don't know what possessed them to come up with this short list system but it caused a quick and loud backlash. But if they just gave every ship an equal chance of dropping no matter what, so many more people would be willing to spend money.

Maybe I'm just not business-savvy enough lol. I don't see the benefit in this short list compared to an equal chance, especially not when the gaming community discovers deceptions like this within hours. And I do consider it a deception, not unlike a casino rigging games in their favor (as if they aren't already in their favor), or using loaded dice.

They can implement their nefarious plans in any manner they wish, BUT, they do have an obligation to state the fair odds.  This they did not do...and apparently have not done. As someone else noted, with COVID restriction extra available time, many spotted the ruse this year. 

[MrSparkle]

1 minute ago, Do_Doch_Nicht said:

They can implement their nefarious plans in any manner they wish, BUT, they do have an obligation to state the fair odds.  This they did not do...and apparently have not done. As someone else noted, with COVID restriction extra available time, many spotted the ruse this year. 

Well that's true too, they seemed to infer one thing and anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise. No proof, and there probably never will be, but what they show on their website does not equal what people are experiencing. IMO that's fraud but this is a new and very grey area that the law has not really addressed.

[Tovarich123]

Boycott WG!!!!!!

 

[MrSparkle]

13 minutes ago, SeaCat_ said:

Imagine if each ship had an equal chance of dropping

The last thing Dimitri said before joining the unemployment line....

Yes but what if news of this short list cut into sales?

Don't you think if every ship had an equal chance people would be willing to spend a lot more money in pursuit of that ship or ships they really want? Rather than not even touching crates because now they know it's nearly impossible because the short list almost guarantees they get a bunch of other ships first?

I know for me personally I'm not touching santa crates after hearing about the short list, but I was considering purchasing a couple when I thought I'd have an equal chance at every ship

(and no I was not around this game for the previous santa years)

[Raven114]

What part of it's Gambling that no one understands????

[SeaCat_]

2 minutes ago, Raven114 said:

What part of it's Gambling that no one understands????

What part of equal chance of droppingdon't you understand

[MrSparkle]

2 minutes ago, Raven114 said:

What part of it's Gambling that no one understands????

It's illegal for casinos to rig machines or for dealers to cheat. They are regulated and inspected. It's one reason I don't trust these online casinos I see advertised in NJ - how easy can it be to rig that software and get away with it?

Gambling should be fair gambling. Using loaded dice or cheating at a game of poker could potentially get you shot in the 1800s.

[RipNuN2]

4 minutes ago, MrSparkle said:

 

Santa boxes are not equivalent to casino gambling.

[ThisIsClassic]

An equal chance of getting a T9 as getting a T5?   Casinos don’t even allow you the same chance of winning the jackpot as the minimum payout. 

[Ettenurb]

I know that just the thought of bad/rigged loot boxes keeps me up most nights.

 

It's the biggest issue of our time.

[BoghieWanKanobie]

Imagine if we had more:

• Tier IV Imperator Nikolais
• Tier V Gremyashchys
• Tier V Fujins
• Tier V Giulio Cesares
• and Tier V Kamikazes

trolling around in the low tiers where Noobs like me are trying to learn the game in Wyomings and Mutsuckies.  That would be GREAT for the game.  Folks, there is a valid reason those ships are rare.  They were pulled out of the game because they are over powered.  They are great Seal Clubbing ships.

[ThisIsClassic]

2 minutes ago, Ettenurb said:

I know that just the thought of bad/rigged loot boxes keeps me up most nights.

 

It's the biggest issue of our time.

Me too.  Getting through all these threads takes time. 

[SeaCat_]

Just now, BoghieWanKanobie said:

Imagine if we had more:

• Tier IV Imperator Nikolais
• Tier V Gremyashchys
• Tier V Fujins
• Tier V Giulio Cesares
• and Tier V Kamikazes

trolling around in the low tiers where Noobs like me are trying to learn the game in Wyomings and Mutsuckies.  That would be GREAT for the game.  Folks, there is a valid reason those ships are rare.  They were pulled out of the game because they are over powered.  They are great Seal Clubbing ships.

The people who are seal clubbing you already have those ships...

[BoghieWanKanobie]

14 minutes ago, MrSparkle said:

It's illegal for casinos to rig machines or for dealers to cheat. They are regulated and inspected. It's one reason I don't trust these online casinos I see advertised in NJ - how easy can it be to rig that software and get away with it?

Gambling should be fair gambling. Using loaded dice or cheating at a game of poker could potentially get you shot in the 1800s.

Odd, when my slot machine starts sounding off I seem to rarely get the $76,126 jackpot - I get five bucks.

Are the odds the same.  I win the five bucks fairly frequently.  I have never won the $76,126 jackpot.

Do I just have terrible luck?  Expiring minds want to know

[SeaCat_]

9 minutes ago, ClassicLib said:

An equal chance of getting a T9 as getting a T5?   Casinos don’t even allow you the same chance of winning the jackpot as the minimum payout. 

There are 3 price levels of boxes 

[VeatherVitch]

5 minutes ago, SeaCat_ said:

The people who are seal clubbing you already have those ships...

You don't have to have played since beta to be a seal clubber. Seal clubbers don't need those boats, but it makes it even worse for the new players when they have them.

1 hour ago, MrSparkle said:

How many more boxes they would sell. I don't know what possessed them to come up with this short list system but it caused a quick and loud backlash. But if they just gave every ship an equal chance of dropping no matter what, so many more people would be willing to spend money.

Maybe I'm just not business-savvy enough lol. I don't see the benefit in this short list compared to an equal chance, especially not when the gaming community discovers deceptions like this within hours. And I do consider it a deception, not unlike a casino rigging games in their favor (as if they aren't already in their favor), or using loaded dice.

As was stated before, the rare ships are kept rare for a reason. If Santa crates had a reasonable chance of dropping them they would become less rare, and more problematic for game balance. 

The only way to approach Santa crates is to go in expecting flags, camos, and a mid tier premium. Expecting anything more is setting yourself up for disappointment. 

The sad reality is most players seem to struggle with expectation management. They expect to be the rare lucky player, and are angry when it doesn't happen. 

[Mustang2209]

PSA from Flambass:

ALARM Santa crates might be RIGGED + Announcement - YouTube

I bought a total of 40 Santa Mega Crates and it's exactly how he stated.  I got the majority of the ships on the short list.  While I don't mind the flags, camos because I need/use them and these other ships I probably would not have bought otherwise, I know for certain I won't be buying Santa crates in the future.  This IS deceptive and now it's a PR nightmare for WG.

I enjoy the game and will keep playing for the forseeable future, including buying premium ships that I think will be worth it.  But no more Santa Crates.

[SeaCat_]

2 minutes ago, BoghieWanKanobie said:

Odd, when my slot machine starts sounding off I seem to rarely get the $76,126 jackpot - I get five bucks.

Are the odds the same.  I win the five bucks fairly frequently.  I have never won the $76,126 jackpot.

Do I just have terrible luck?  Expiring minds want to know

Modern slot machines use a computer to generate random numbers, and these determine the outcomes of the game. The important thing to remember is that the results are truly random. The game doesn't work on any kind of cyclical basis, and slot machine jackpots don't become due. Slots don't get hot or cold, either.

 

This is true of every casino game, in fact. The casino gets its edge using math and large numbers. Every bet on every casino game offers a lower payout than the actual odds of winning.

For example, in roulette, the odds of hitting a specific number are 37 to 1. But a bet on a specific number only pays off at 35 to 1. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how the casino makes its profit in that situation, does it?

[yashma]

Quote

Imagine if each ship had an equal chance of dropping

That would give you a starting  1 in 107 (0.93%) chance of getting a specific ship.  Assuming that ships drop in roughly 20% of crates, that means that each crate would give you a 1 in 535 (0.19%) chance of getting a specific ship.  This means that the starting odds of getting the specific ship you want is basically 0, unless you mega whale and and buy an obscene amount of crates, or have already whaled and own a large amount of premiums.

But, let's say for the sake of argument that you have whaled in the past and you own a ton of premiums, having 90 of them sitting in your port.  That means you now have a 1/17 (5.9%) chance of getting the ship you want, and assuming the same 20% ship drop rate, that turns into a 1/85 (1.18%) chance of getting the specific ship you want from any given crate.  Let that sink in, even if you own more than 80% of available premiums, you still have barely more than a 1% chance to get the ship you want from any given crate.

 

TLDR

The odds would still be rigged astronomically against you, even if you have a ton of premiums sitting in your port....and this is before we even take into account that it's common practice across the entire industry to weight the drop rates in loot packs in order to make the most coveted items more rare.  Anyone familiar with loot packs and gachas should not expect a Missouri to have the same drop rate as a Makarov.

[Mustang2209]

While I agree with a prior post that having an equal amount of odds for seal-clubbing ships isn't good for 'game balance', I think there should be a sliding scale of chance for higher tiers to get a 'rare' ship, like the Big MO, Musashi or some other rare ship not regularly available anymore. This way, if ppl want to take a chance of getting a rare ship, it's on them.  But this shortlist is, IMO, effectively rigging the ship drops and deceptive advertising on WG's part.

[BoghieWanKanobie]

2 minutes ago, SeaCat_ said:

The people who are seal clubbing you already have those ships...

But, if the ships become more available than there will be more clubbers.  Right now, there are some Clubbers dropping torps in a Minekaze rather than a Kamikaze.  A certain percentage of the playerbase always has the Seal Clubber mentality.  Math.

The probability algorithm is kinda a letdown for a collector.  This is especially true for the chap that is down to say the last 20 of the ships on the list.  That chap - if he/she is a collector - will be quite tempted and it is extremely likely he/she will get ships 19 through 8.  The odds mean that he/she has to buy 100 crates to get into the Real Christmas Gated ShortList.  The true nefarious thing that Wargaming is doing is GATING the rare ships behind a 'You will never get this ship after this year' policy, but they may be watching ownership stats and not really want the Gaussian Bulge to make those ships 'Not Rare' for game balance purposes.