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Mister_Tanman

Would It Make Sense To Wait To Buy Santas?

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I was going to buy Santas this year, but now that I’ve learned about the short list, I reconsidering.

But wouldn’t make sense to wait until I knock off the 16 Tier 10 ships snowflakes first to see if I get the short list ships from those crates before buy santas? Or am I missing a mechanic?

Thank you!

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7 minutes ago, Mister_Tanman said:

I was going to buy Santas this year, but now that I’ve learned about the short list, I reconsidering.

But wouldn’t make sense to wait until I knock off the 16 Tier 10 ships snowflakes first to see if I get the short list ships from those crates before buy santas? Or am I missing a mechanic?

Thank you!

I would wait.  If Wargaming has the slightest shred of credibility, they will make some type of correction for the deceit / omission / algorithm error.  

Edited by Do_Doch_Nicht
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IF you want to buy crates it seems here are the pre-reqs to getting what you want:

 

1: Have all the short list ships.  You won't get a ship other than the shortlist ships until you start "rerolling" ships.

2: Have a fair number of lower tier premiums.  The drop tables (at least last year and from what it seems, again this year) will HEAVILY favor lower tier, non rare premiums first.

3: If you already have a significant collection of premium ships, you're probably in for decent odds to get good stuff.  (anecdotally, I had all but 8 of the ships on the list.  I pulled 5 of those 8 in big crates, and guess what, T7 premiums came first, then T8, then T9.)

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You do realize if you wait you may not get a Makarov. How you would you feel if your the only one without one?:Smile_hiding:

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Thank you for the responses.

But my question is, I don’t want any of the three short list ships, so I’m most likely not buying the 20 mega crates I was going to get.

But, if I can get one or get really lucky and get two of them from the Tier 10 snowflake crates, I might reconsider. I know the snowflake crates are the basic type and a low chance of getting a ship. But is my thinking incorrect?

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Don't buy crates

Ever

That's my recommendation

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Just now, Mister_Tanman said:

Thank you for the responses.

But my question is, I don’t want any of the three short list ships, so I’m most likely not buying the 20 mega crates I was going to get.

But, if I can get one or get really lucky and get two of them from the Tier 10 snowflake crates, I might reconsider. I know the snowflake crates are the basic type and a low chance of getting a ship. But is my thinking incorrect?

According to the Reddit list, each tier of boxes has a different short list.  

Quote

Gift Shortlist (WIP)

  • Tier 6 British cruiser London

  • Tier 6 French cruiser De Grasse (?)

  • Tier 5 European battleship Viribus Unitis

Big Gift Shortlist

  • Tier 6 Soviet cruiser Makarov (common)

  • Tier 7 US battleship California

  • Tier 8 European destroyer Orkan

Mega Shortlist

  • Tier 6 Italian cruiser Duca D'aosta (common)

  • Tier 7 Japanese destroyer Yuudachi (common)

  • Tier 8 British battleship Vanguard

  • Tier 8 Soviet cruiser Ochakov

So if you get regular gifts, then buy big gifts, you'll probably still get the shortlist ships.

 

Basically, once you have one shortlist ship, you have the shot at other ships.  So if you want to wait and get a shortlist ship out of a snowflake crate, by all means.  It should, from all figuring so far, give you a chance at non-shortlist ships.

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I'd wait to knock off all the snowflakes to see what you get and also to see whether WG makes changes in the crates.

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49 minutes ago, Mister_Tanman said:

I was going to buy Santas this year, but now that I’ve learned about the short list, I reconsidering.

But wouldn’t make sense to wait until I knock off the 16 Tier 10 ships snowflakes first to see if I get the short list ships from those crates before buy santas? Or am I missing a mechanic?

Thank you!

There was always a list of ships more likely to drop than others, it isn't new this year. It just seems that the community has reached peak entitlement, and now seems to expect Missouri, Belfast, or Musashi every second crate. 

Don't buy crates if you are expecting a specific ship. It doesn't matter what the Devs say on Monday, you will not be guaranteed the ship of your dreams from a random crate. 

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52 minutes ago, Mister_Tanman said:

I was going to buy Santas this year, but now that I’ve learned about the short list, I reconsidering.

But wouldn’t make sense to wait until I knock off the 16 Tier 10 ships snowflakes first to see if I get the short list ships from those crates before buy santas? Or am I missing a mechanic?

Thank you!

Actually, you shouldn't buy. The snowflakes won't help because those containers have different ships: London, De Grasse and Viribus. So, if you don't have those, don't even bother. If you have all of them, you might get some supercontainers first.

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It doesn't have to be a gated 'Shortlist' to have the affect folks are noticing - probability (odds) management can do this.  Math is hard.  Don't worry about a nefarious shortlist.

Anyway, your idea is sound.  If you attain the high probability drops in some other fashion for free then the game cannot drop those ships in your lap when you spend your cold hearted cash.  The gift mechanics will then transfer to a Super Container mechanic that removes your existing ships from the selection pool.  You will likely get whatever ship has the highest probability at that time - but, again, there is a chance for any available ship.

I wasn't really sentient last Christmas season because I was tooling around in Tier II and maybe Tier III.  I have actually just got my second nation into Tier V and working on getting my third there right now.  And, no - it ain't the Ship XP that is holding me back, it is the guidance offered here to get my Captains to 10pts.  Anyway, after the excuses for my crapolla play, I do not understand the Snowflake mechanic because you cannot effectively take part in it at Tier III.  If the results are RNG ships than they are likely using the same RNG mechanic as the crates so your concept is very sound.  

Just remember one thing:  The chance to attain a rare ship is vanishingly small - that is why they are rare.  The odds do get better as you pick off ships from the list of 107, but you know there will be a breakpoint at the rare ships.  And, don't be stupid enough to think that having just 50 of the 107 ships doubles your odds from having 0 of the 107 ships.  There will be breakpoints.  Ship #57 may have a 30% chance of dropping, ship 25 perhaps 5%, while ship #1 has a 0.1% (rather than 0.0001%).  WoWS needs those OP low tier ships to be rare.  They are low tier OP ships after all - they are unbalanced for the game.

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5 minutes ago, WarStore said:

Actually, you shouldn't buy. The snowflakes won't help because those containers have different ships: London, De Grasse and Viribus. So, if you don't have those, don't even bother. If you have all of them, you might get some supercontainers first.

OK! That really helps because I already have those three. Maybe buying the standard crates would be the way to go. Or is the ship drop rate from those so bad it is still not worth it?

And FYI, I can ALWAYS use more camos, flags, dubs, etc. so it is not a waste of money for me. I am just want to identify the best way increase my odds of getting a true random roll for ships.

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11 minutes ago, Mister_Tanman said:

OK! That really helps because I already have those three. Maybe buying the standard crates would be the way to go. Or is the ship drop rate from those so bad it is still not worth it?

And FYI, I can ALWAYS use more camos, flags, dubs, etc. so it is not a waste of money for me. I am just want to identify the best way increase my odds of getting a true random roll for ships.

I'd say the drop rate is even worse. But WG won't disclose any of this because they wanna suck all of your money

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2 minutes ago, Mister_Tanman said:

OK! That really helps because I already have those three. Maybe buying the standard crates would be the way to go. Or is the ship drop rate from those so bad it is still not worth it?

And FYI, I can ALWAYS use more camos, flags, dubs, etc. so it is not a waste of money for me. I am just want to identify the best way increase my odds of getting a true random roll for ships.

I might have had a weird drop, or the nefarious gate broke on me.  The gate definitely broke on me last year - I got a Dunkerque and an Aigle.

This year my first ship was the Mighty Yudachi - which is a high probability ship for the Mega Crates.

My second was not on the high probability list.  It was the Exeter - which was really cool because I was going to buy it at a present for myself anyway. 

So, if the algorithm is actually gated then it is gated for only the first ship since my second drop was not on the 'Nefarious List of Mandatory Gate Ships'.  Similarly, the ship lists I have seen where folks are whaling it imply that there really is no gate - just probabilities. 

I was disappointed in getting the Yudachi for two reasons:  1) I cannot disapprove the existence of a Hard Gate - although I can demonstrate that the gate is only one ship, and 2) LWM gave the Mighty Yudachi a grade of Garbage.  On the other hand, after drinking much booze, the Yudachi is kinda perfect for me.  I can double train my IJN DD captains now.  For some reason, the IJN DD line has only one premium DD (not going to play Tier II/III) and it is a Tier VIII - which is way to high a tier from my skill level.  So, while a Tier VII is probably too high (likely) it is a better fit for me.  And, the 10pt Captain is nice for the Tier V split.  All good.

Also, like you I kinda need the lesser prizes.  I now have 107 Christmas Fir Tree camos which are great for captain training.

 

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I know I am over thinking this but it is early and the family is still sleeping. LOL!

So a regular container is $1. A mega container is $5. I have all the short list ships for the regular container and none of the mega. As long as the chances of dropping a ship on a standard container is not 5X worse than a mega, than if I am looking to get the best chance of getting a true random ship roll, I should buy regulars. Right?

Again, I am fine with getting camoes, flags, etc. etc. I always need them and I use the Santas to stock up each year.

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29 minutes ago, Mister_Tanman said:

I know I am over thinking this but it is early and the family is still sleeping. LOL!

So a regular container is $1. A mega container is $5. I have all the short list ships for the regular container and none of the mega. As long as the chances of dropping a ship on a standard container is not 5X worse than a mega, than if I am looking to get the best chance of getting a true random ship roll, I should buy regulars. Right?

Again, I am fine with getting camoes, flags, etc. etc. I always need them and I use the Santas to stock up each year.

Traditionally the middle ("Big") has been thought to be the best value (ie: estimated 10% drop rate for $3, estimated 15% or less drop rate for $5...proportionally the increase in ship chances is less for the cost).

If you have all of the "short list" ships for the gift tier then any ship you roll will come from the main list, and should arrive via a SuperContainer (I believe there is a very small chance of getting a list ship via a regular container as your normal draw, but more likely would be drawing a short list ship you have and then a reroll for a SC drop).

I don't think the drop system is changed, just the wording makes it seem different. So, I'm approaching as in years past, if I'm fine with any of the rewards and find them acceptable value I am willing to buy a few.

Good luck and make decisions on what (if any) you wish to spend in advance, don't spend and add up the spending later.

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I'm waiting to see if WG make any announcement about the Santa crates, ie (a) scrap the short lists, and (b) scrap the other practice of dropping ships in the order low tier to high tier.

If I buy today, I'll just end up with Orkan, California, Erich Whatsit (CV) - the current spam ships.

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2 hours ago, Mister_Tanman said:

I was going to buy Santas this year, but now that I’ve learned about the short list, I reconsidering.

But wouldn’t make sense to wait until I knock off the 16 Tier 10 ships snowflakes first to see if I get the short list ships from those crates before buy santas? Or am I missing a mechanic?

Thank you!

No, it would not. Tier X ships are not on the drop list and never have been, so they will have no influence on your Santa box purchase. If you want to improve the quality of your ship drops, the best way is to buy up or earn as many of the low-value ships on the drop list as you can. So compete as many event ships as you can throughout the year. Use coal and doubloons and coupons to buy up the Tier V and Tier VII ships. You must then also accept that to get a meaningful number of ships from the better drops, you will need to buy enough crates to have meaningful aggregate odds. Buying an 8-pack will not guarantee you anything or even provide good odds. Even a single 20-pack is unlikely to do it, as there is a modest chance you don't get any ships from that buy. The only way to have reasonable odds of getting a Tier VIII+ ship off a 20-paxk buy would be to have all the Tier VII and below drops.

2 hours ago, Mister_Tanman said:

Thank you for the responses.

But my question is, I don’t want any of the three short list ships, so I’m most likely not buying the 20 mega crates I was going to get.

But, if I can get one or get really lucky and get two of them from the Tier 10 snowflake crates, I might reconsider. I know the snowflake crates are the basic type and a low chance of getting a ship. But is my thinking incorrect?

The snowflake crates for Tier X ships are identical to the small Santa boxes. 

It would be very reasonable to wait till the end of the update water you have earned all possible free boxes to decide to purchase. In WG world, it is actually often best to wait until the last minute to decide.

Edited by RainbowFartingUnicorn

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Frankly, I'm not expecting them to change any of the mechanics but it would be good if they fix the wording in the gift box descriptions to more accurately depict what is being sold.

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One question beyond the shortlist issue. Are the contents of the boxes always a better deal for what you get based on what WG pegs the "value". Would the flags/cammos etc. be a good deal (assuming you wanted to buy them) in each if the three crates? Do they beat "sale" prices?

Obviously these items, including any ship drops,  have whatever price WG assigns to them. Whatever WG thinks they can get.

 

Edited by Sabot_100

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6 minutes ago, Turbogerbil said:

I'm waiting to see if WG make any announcement about the Santa crates, ie (a) scrap the short lists, and (b) scrap the other practice of dropping ships in the order low tier to high tier.

If I buy today, I'll just end up with Orkan, California, Erich Whatsit (CV) - the current spam ships.

You'll be waiting the rest of your life, I suspect.

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