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DuckyShot

The Truth about Christmas crates and short lists

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**I neither condemn nor condone the WG handles loot boxes. My purpose here is to only provide factual information. Do your research before buying**

Short lists are NOT new. They have existed since the beginning of the Christmas crates in 2016. However, here is the interesting thing, in my research for this post, I had a terrible time finding  an article for the 2016 containers, the original article appears to not exist anymore. However, one from January is still up and gives the details of the short lists, It also advertises a "slim chance" at pulling one of the other premium ships. And the forums are filled with people talking about pulling Emden's and other ships on the short lists:

Small: Warspite, Molotov

Medium:  Indianapolis, Blyskawica, Emden

Large: Ishizuchi, Atago, Prinz Eugen

https://worldofwarships.com/en/news/general-news/suspiciouspackages/

 

in 2017, this trend continued, short lists with the same advertised "slim chance" at the other premium ships:

Small: De Grasse, Mutsu

Medium: Okhotnik, Scharnhorst, Leningrad

Large: Lo Yang, Alabama, Gallant

https://worldofwarships.com/en/news/sales-and-events/we-are-many/

 

Now we come to 2018, where things seem to be a bit different. Nowhere are there listed any short lists for any of the boxes. It simply gives the list of all ships available in the boxes. But it seems like there is some data in the pages that could have been removed as they changed some elements.  However Jingles talks about in his unboxing video about there being short lists this year in his unboxing video. Looking at some videos of crates being opened, I saw Huang He, Perth, Krasny Krym, Dunkerque and LOTS of Monaghan's dropping from the Christmas crate, while other ships dropped from substituted SC's. My memory of that year seems to recall a lot of talk about Monaghan and Huang He and Perth being pulled by a lot of people.

https://worldofwarships.com/en/news/sales-and-events/santa-claus-postman/

https://worldofwarships.com/en/news/sales-and-events/premium-shop-december-2018/

 

2019 appears to be the same, no mention of any short lists, just a chance of pulling any ship from the list. Same thing, there appears that there could have been some data missing from the articles now that some elements are removed from the article. However, same thing with unboxing videos: I saw ships like Exeter and Haida being dropped from Christmas crates and other ships being dropped from substituted SC's. I do recall there being a lot of talk about Exeter being a standard drop for the Christams crates.

https://worldofwarships.com/en/news/sales-and-events/time-of-gifts/

 

So that brings us to 2020 and again the article has no published short list, however, we can be sure that the article is accurate as its newly posted and nothing has been changed. And everyone is aware of the discussion surrounding these crates and the "short lists"

https://worldofwarships.com/en/news/sales-and-events/a-time-of-gifts/

 

So in conclusion:

1. Short lists have always existed. They have never gone away. This is not new

2. It doesn't appear to me at this time that they have always been published (2016 and 2017 were, it doesn't appear that 2018 and 2019 were). (And if they are in effect, I DO believe that WG should publish them along with the odds for drops in all containers)

3. While it appears that if you don't have any of the short list ships you must pull at least one of them before moving on to any of the other ships listed, whether it worked this way in the past is unclear. I do not know if the published "slim chance" was in effect before having any of the short list ships in previous years.

 

I do not know why all of a sudden this year, people decided to make this an issue. It has ALWAYS existed. The only real problem I have with WG in this is them not publishing those short lists as they used to do. Don't kid yourselves, they are a for profit company and don't expect them to follow scrupulous business practices... But the amount of effort being used on this, the 5th year of Santa crates, is mind boggling to me.

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In conclusion OP is a wargaming employee /S

 

Truthfully i dont get the hatred. But i guess not everyone has the same view on the items they drop as i do.

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Just now, Princess_Daystar said:

In conclusion OP is a wargaming employee /S

 

Truthfully i dont get the hatred. But i guess not everyone has the same view on the items they drop as i do.

I am currently opening the crates they provided to me for shilling.

:Smile_trollface: JK

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I believe one of the reasons people didn't notice in the first few years is because of the duplicate compensation rules. Getting multiple duplicates from a shortlist, but with guaranteed doubloon compensation helped some people get insane amounts of doubloons.

 

I also think one of the issues that's so far unproven, is that unless you get a shortlisted ship once, or at least have one, you can't get access to the normal pool of ship rewards. That said, I doubt the chance is 0% as this would have to be mentioned, just very low.

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Just now, warheart1992 said:

I believe one of the reasons people didn't notice in the first few years is because of the duplicate compensation rules. Getting multiple duplicates from a shortlist, but with guaranteed doubloon compensation helped some people get insane amounts of doubloons.

 

I also think one of the issues that's so far unproven, is that unless you get a shortlisted ship once, or at least have one, you can't get access to the normal pool of ship rewards. That said, I doubt the chance is 0% as this would have to be mentioned, just very low.

Yeah, the duplicate rules in the past were extremely generous. They have gone the other way now imo. And getting a duplicate did not always guarantee a reroll if you were missing other ships from the list. In 2016 it was really bugged.

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11 minutes ago, Princess_Daystar said:

In conclusion OP is a wargaming employee /S

 

Truthfully i dont get the hatred. But i guess not everyone has the same view on the items they drop as i do.

There were drastically fewer Premiums in 2016 then now.  The odds have never been so poor.

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So the fact that it's always been like this means what, WG is not being dishonest when they advertise that I could win 1 of 107 ships, when its actually 1 of 3?

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The fact that short lists have always existed is more than enough reason to keep disclosing them.

 

WG is clearly stating that containers contain all of those ships, and it is simply not true.

 

scam.png

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24 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Welcome to the flamu effect...

Flamu's YouTube video was a reaction to information that was already burning up Reddit and this forum.  His video scored a ton of views, but he doesn't deserve credit for shining a spot light on this.

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26 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Welcome to the flamu effect...

Also, one of the reasons I dont and wont give WG any money EVER is their refusal to publish odds.

The complaints about it where all over the forums and reddit well before Flamu posted his video.  The video even starts out with him quoting a forum post. 

Edited by eviltane

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7 minutes ago, WarStore said:

WG is clearly stating that containers contain all of those ships, and it is simply not true.

And, are they advertising the hell out of the high chances of pulling Makarov from the Santa Crates?  No, almost all posts and advertisements are about the Tier 9 ships.

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1 minute ago, desmo_2 said:

And, are they advertising the hell out of the high chances of pulling Makarov from the Santa Crates?  No, almost all posts and advertisements are about the Tier 9 ships.

No. WG is putting those ships in the same list as the rest of the other ships, as if you had an equal chance at any of them.

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25 minutes ago, DuckyShot said:

 

So in conclusion:

1. Short lists have always existed. They have never gone away. This is not new

2. It doesn't appear to me at this time that they have always been published (2016 and 2017 were, it doesn't appear that 2018 and 2019 were). (And if they are in effect, I DO believe that WG should publish them along with the odds for drops in all containers)

3. While it appears that if you don't have any of the short list ships you must pull at least one of them before moving on to any of the other ships listed, whether it worked this way in the past is unclear. I do not know if the published "slim chance" was in effect before having any of the short list ships in previous years.

 

I do not know why all of a sudden this year, people decided to make this an issue. It has ALWAYS existed. The only real problem I have with WG in this is them not publishing those short lists as they used to do. Don't kid yourselves, they are a for profit company and don't expect them to follow scrupulous business practices... But the amount of effort being used on this, the 5th year of Santa crates, is mind boggling to me.

Simply put you've already mentioned it.
They haven't announced this year there was a short list. Then people spotted a very unusual number of Makarov's, and determined the Makarov/California/Orkan (Big gift) and Duca d'Aosta/Yūdachi/Vanguard/Ochakov (Mega gift) short lists.

This year there is added urgency and maximum predatory Fear Of Missing Out

Quote

 

It's important to point out that next year, ships IV Imperator Nikolai I, V Gremyashchy, V Fūjin, V Giulio Cesare, and V Kamikaze will not be included in Santa's containers. Don't miss your chance to get rare Premium ships!

 

As for why it's such a big stink this time round if 2018 and 2019 worked the same?
Good question, perhaps people just didn't spot the pattern *and then* popularise it on reddit and the forums. Of course Flamu testing it drew a big crowd. It'd be interesting trying to reverse engineer if there were very common ships dropping in 2018 and 2019 that indicates a similar hidden short list.

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30 minutes ago, DuckyShot said:

 

You know, the problem with this isnt that people believed it never existed. The problem its the same as the B version mission of the last update. Look at the caption:

8 minutes ago, WarStore said:

The fact that short lists have always existed is more than enough reason to keep disclosing them.

 

WG is clearly stating that containers contain all of those ships, and it is simply not true.

 

scam.png

This is a ingame list, you can find it in the armory. The problem is WG says "you can find those ships in the containers". No, you cant, because unless you already have all the list ships you wont move to the next tier. And this was proven since almost no ship from tier 7 to 9 come from santa, rather than a supercontainer wich roll if you get a repeated ship. 

If the issue wasnt detected by whoever who detected it, doesnt care if not flamu or reddit, anybody could come, buy 50 crates thinking "ey i can get Missouri" and thats not true even when WG states in the sale that it could get out of the crates. Yes it can, but first you have to get like 30 ships first or be incredible lucky to get one after you finish the short list and move up to the next tier. And thats not what you mean when you write "ships that you can find" because is biased

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5 minutes ago, eviltane said:

The complaints about it where all over the forums and reddit well before Flamu posted his video. 

Flamu just posted the information on YouTube were many people watch but don't go to Reddit or forums.  Now they know because of Flamu.

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2 minutes ago, WarStore said:

The fact that short lists have always existed is more than enough reason to keep disclosing them.

 

WG is clearly stating that containers contain all of those ships, and it is simply not true.

 

scam.png

Exactly.

The ad copy states " A random Premium ship, including rare ones (Imperator Nikolai I, Gremyashchy, Kamikaze, Fūjin, Giulio Cesare, Flint, Belfast, Mikhail Kutuzov, and Enterprise), and Tier IX ships (Neustrashimy, Missouri, Musashi, Kronshtadt, Benham, Jean Bart, Pommern, Ägir, Georgia, Alaska, Azuma, and Friesland) with a 10-skill-point Commander and a Port slot."

....except it's not truly a "random" chance at the outset to obtain any of these except the shortlisted ones, because if you don't own the "shortlisted" ships it looks that you have absolutely ZERO chance of pulling any other premium ship from a Santa crate until you have those.

Plainly and simply put, there's ad copy deception taking place here.

How many would NOT have bought crates had they known they have a shortlisted gate of ships at the outset instead of what the ad copy implies?

Therein lies the problem, and the outrage.

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6 minutes ago, eviltane said:

The complaints about it where all over the forums and reddit well before Flamu posted his video.  The video even starts out with him quoting a forum post. 

That doesn't fit their narrative, a construct of ad homeniem in order to merely sit there and go "but this is merely Flamu starting a fuss, therefore this is fake news".  

For those who can read in between the lines or check their facts, this is just another day.

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12 minutes ago, WarStore said:

The fact that short lists have always existed is more than enough reason to keep disclosing them.

 

WG is clearly stating that containers contain all of those ships, and it is simply not true.

 

scam.png

The containers indeed have all these ships, I don't doubt that, otherwise someone would have grounds for legal action against WG. Now the chances for some of these ships to drop are simply astronomical but there is a chance. That's the difference and what keeps these products legal. 

If they were to disclose odds I can easily imagine Missouri or Musashi having 0,1-0,5% dropchance, PROVIDED you get a ship in the first place.

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This is why you should NEVER sell crappy Premium ships.  Just let them sit in your port so when you do get crates, you just might have these "short list" ships.

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1 minute ago, HTSMetal said:

Exactly.

The ad copy states " A random Premium ship, including rare ones (Imperator Nikolai I, Gremyashchy, Kamikaze, Fūjin, Giulio Cesare, Flint, Belfast, Mikhail Kutuzov, and Enterprise), and Tier IX ships (Neustrashimy, Missouri, Musashi, Kronshtadt, Benham, Jean Bart, Pommern, Ägir, Georgia, Alaska, Azuma, and Friesland) with a 10-skill-point Commander and a Port slot."

....except it's not truly a "random" chance at the outset to obtain any of these except the shortlisted ones, because if you don't own the "shortlisted" ships it looks that you have absolutely ZERO chance of pulling any other premium ship from a Santa crate until you have those.

Plainly and simply put, there's ad copy deception taking place here.

How many would NOT have bought crates had they known they have a shortlisted gate of ships at the outset instead of what the ad copy implies?

Therein lies the problem, and the outrage.

Again, the zero chance part is unproven so far, and I don't think true since it would be false advertisement. By keeping us in the dark about drop chances WG can monitor this stuff however it pleases.

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Just now, warheart1992 said:

Again, the zero chance part is unproven so far, and I don't think true since it would be false advertisement. By keeping us in the dark about drop chances WG can monitor this stuff however it pleases.

I agree with you, but the evidence HIGHLY implies it to be likely at this point.

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2 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

Again, the zero chance part is unproven so far, and I don't think true since it would be false advertisement. By keeping us in the dark about drop chances WG can monitor this stuff however it pleases.

Do you have any videos of someone without the makarov getting some high tier ship BEFORE getting the makarov or the shortlist complete, and getting it from the cristmas and not the supercontainer? Because almost all evidence show high tier premiums only come from supercontainer

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1 minute ago, warheart1992 said:

Again, the zero chance part is unproven so far, and I don't think true since it would be false advertisement. By keeping us in the dark about drop chances WG can monitor this stuff however it pleases.

 

Just now, HTSMetal said:

I agree with you, but the evidence HIGHLY implies it to be likely at this point.

It still could be something else.

It could be a "safety mechanism". Up to a certain point you have the weighted RNG (that most of us are aware of). After that point the safety triggers and gives you ship, but limited to those 3. So prior to safety you have the "normal" but weighted chance to get any ship. Once the trigger hits, you are just guaranteed a ship; unfortunately from that 3 ship pool. 

All conjecture. But still possible.

What Id like to see is, how many boxes people are opening to get their first ships. And then the ships received. 

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