Testing the Shortlist theory.

[SoothingWhaleSongEU]

So this theory posted on this reddit thread has rapidly gained a lot of interest and lots of confirmation. So. SCIENCE!

Before opening any Santa's Mega Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships: Duca d'Aosta, Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov?

Likewise before opening any Santa's Big Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships Admiral Makarov, California or Orkan

The theory is if you get a ship then it will choose one of these 3 or 4 ships (depending on the gift).  I *believe* this ship should appear from that gift container.*

BUT if you already have it then you will instead get a super container (with I believe the super container animation)* with a ship you don't already have from the far longer 107 ship list.

So in my case I already have Duca d'Aosta (from a Santa Gift from last year... oddly enough...) so it's possible for me to get *any* ship from the full list if I buy a Mega Gift Container and get lucky. But I should be unsurprised if I end up with Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov (which I don't have)

However as I don't have Makarov, California or Orkan, then by the short list rule the first ship I get must be one of them if I open a Big gift and get a ship. After getting at least one I can again get any ship on the list.

This is obviously clearer if you open the containers one at a time but also full results are also interesting.

So if you've opened Mega or Big gifts this year and you got at least one ship:
Did it follow this rule? Please tell us.
Do we have anyone who doesn't have any ship from the relevant short list who gets another ship first? Please tell us what you got.


Edit: *A note on the gift crate vs supercontainer animation. As any unowned shortlisted ship could *also* come out of a super container if they're a ship that the player doesn't own so I'm less sure how important the animation is. It's more I don't expect *any* other ship to come directly out of a gift container animation aside the 3 or 4 from the shortlist than never expecting any from the short list to come from the super container..

Edit 2: Likewise short listed ships were specifically mentioned in previous years 2016 Christmas Box  2017 Christmas Box. But not from 2018 Loot Box.

Edit 3. I've posted a clone with a poll on this topic on my native EU server, for any interested.

[McBuns_Splitter]

lol

[Bortt]

Wonder how many people working at WG will press the no button.

[Fel0niusMonk]

I owned none of the "shortlist" ships and only 18 total ships from the drop list.

From my Big Gifts, I got Makarov, followed by a supercontainer.

From my Mega Gifts, I got Aosta and Yudachi, then four supercontainers (the second of which had Vanguard), then Ochakov, followed by 3 more supercontainers.

[Panzer1113]

Bought a 20 pack of the Bigs - have most ships, but do not have the Orkan (so I sorta expected that)

 

11 containers of Camo

5 flag containers

2 coal - 15,00 total

1 1,000 doubloons 

1 ship - Enterprise - the only rare ship I do not own, but I don't play CVs - so a surprise - but was not what I was looking for

 

Done for buying containers - I have in the past bought quite a few - especially in the days of doubloons for duplicates - but really don't need to spend money on camos -   

[OilyBusiness]

8 minutes ago, Panzer1113 said:

Bought a 20 pack of the Bigs - have most ships, but do not have the Orkan (so I sorta expected that)

 

11 containers of Camo

5 flag containers

2 coal - 15,00 total

1 1,000 doubloons 

1 ship - Enterprise - the only rare ship I do not own, but I don't play CVs - so a surprise - but was not what I was looking for

 

Done for buying containers - I have in the past bought quite a few - especially in the days of doubloons for duplicates - but really don't need to spend money on camos -   

Did the ship come in a supercontainer or regular? If super containers, then the theory holds. If regular than it does not.

[Panzer1113]

1 minute ago, OilyBusiness said:

Did the ship come in a supercontainer or regular? If super containers, then the theory holds. If regular than it does not.

came in supercontainer

[SoothingWhaleSongEU]

1 minute ago, OilyBusiness said:

Did the ship come in a supercontainer or regular? If super containers, then the theory holds. If regular than it does not.

Actually it's a bit more complicated as the above ships could *also* come out of a supercontainer if they're a ship that the player doesn't own so I'm less sure how important the animation is.

I think more is that I don't expect *any* other ship to come directly out of a gift container animation aside the 3 or 4 from the shortlist.

[WarStore]

It has been proven already. There is nothing more to test.

Check every single "opening Santa containers" video in youtube. All of them will show the same thing. 

[Sabot_100]

I did notice 2 different VU's in the team lists of two games this AM. Both proud owners claimed they just "won" them and were trying them out. 

[RainbowFartingUnicorn]

Yes, but my results were generally supportive of the idea but not the specifics.

I only buy Big Containers. So the shortlist for me is theorized as being Admiral Makarov, California, and Orkan. I owned Admiral Makarov, but neither of the other two. I got five ships from sixty Big Containers, and the first three were supercontainer re-rolls. The fourth was California, which did drop from a Santa crate. So my first three containers I believe I really only had a 1/9 chance of getting those first three re-roll supercontainers in a row. Possible, but fairly unlikely.

Now, something that may also be of interest is that while I did not buy any Mega containers, I owned all the ships from that shortlist as well with the exception of Ochakov... which I got from a re-roll supercontainer.

[Spirit_of_76]

I literally got all 4 short list ships from 20 mega containers then got a gallant. Opened them all at once because I didn’t know anything about a shortlist or whatever so can’t say anything about whether gallant came from a super container.

[xXUglykidXx]

Why is this now a big deal, this happened last year too. 

[clammboy]

1 hour ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

So this theory posted on this reddit thread has rapidly gained a lot of interest and lots of confirmation. So. SCIENCE!

Before opening any Santa's Mega Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships: Duca d'Aosta, Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov?

Likewise before opening any Santa's Big Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships Admiral Makarov, California or Orkan

The theory is if you get a ship then it will choose one of these 3 or 4 ships (depending on the gift).  I *believe* this ship should appear from that gift container.*

BUT if you already have it then you will instead get a super container (with I believe the super container animation)* with a ship you don't already have from the far longer 107 ship list.

So in my case I already have Duca d'Aosta (from a Santa Gift from last year... oddly enough...) so it's possible for me to get *any* ship from the full list if I buy a Mega Gift Container and get lucky. But I should be unsurprised if I end up with Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov (which I don't have)

However as I don't have Makarov, California or Orkan, then by the short list rule the first ship I get must be one of them if I open a Big gift and get a ship. After getting at least one I can again get any ship on the list.

This is obviously clearer if you open the containers one at a time but also full results are also interesting.

So if you've opened Mega or Big gifts this year and you got at least one ship:
Did it follow this rule? Please tell us.
Do we have anyone who doesn't have any ship from the relevant short list who gets another ship first? Please tell us what you got.


Edit: *A note on the gift crate vs supercontainer animation. As any unowned shortlisted ship could *also* come out of a super container if they're a ship that the player doesn't own so I'm less sure how important the animation is. It's more I don't expect *any* other ship to come directly out of a gift container animation aside the 3 or 4 from the shortlist than never expecting any from the short list to come from the super container..

There's no bacon in the poll and I don't think the short list is a theory it's always been done this way . I think Ducky pointed it out that this year for some reason they didn't include the short list in the original post but there's always been a short list no ? 

[Diesel_Thunder]

10 minutes ago, clammboy said:

There's no bacon in the poll and I don't think the short list is a theory it's always been done this way . I think Ducky pointed it out that this year for some reason they didn't include the short list in the original post but there's always been a short list no ? 

I don’t recall seing a short list last year, and I didn’t think they were rigged either.
 

Finding out that they are rigged, I will not be buying any containers this year, or ever again for that matter. Don’t think I’ll buy into this dockyard either. Sucks that WG is getting super greedy and more scummy with thier business practices. 

[STINKWEED_]

So.... do you really think a company that rigs the Santa Crates wouldn't rig the MM with an algorithm ?  Keep dreaming.

[Mudd_H_F__XX]

I haven't bought any yet! Why?

They are gifts to be given to others, not hoarded for oneself.

Get in the Spirit fellow Captains. Send a gift to a friend, a clan mate or add a new to forum Captain as a friend and send them a gift!

 

[Mudd_H_F__XX]

2 hours ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

Please tell us what you got.

You have been sent a gift by me. Ho Ho Ho! May it serve you well.

[SoothingWhaleSongEU]

8 minutes ago, Mudd_H_F__XX said:

You have been sent a gift by me. Ho Ho Ho! May it serve you well.

That's exceptionally kind of you, thank you.

Although I am a little abashed to admit this is my alt account specifically to...

*checks posting record*

Talk about dispersion and apparently stir up scandal across the pond.

[Mudd_H_F__XX]

7 minutes ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

Although I am a little abashed to admit this is my alt account specifically to...

You are welcome!

It is my pleasure to stir the pot on all 4 servers. That is why I have accounts on all 4. Since you too have cross the ponds accounts you shouldn't have any problem gifting others.

Ho Ho Ho, Merry Christmas.

[Rhamses05]

Yep, got a couple stacks of Mega crates and sure enough the first ship to drop was Vanguard. Next batch I got the Ochakov and Yudachi. 20 Big crates: Makarov, Orkan and one supercontainer (ark royal)

[Wombatmetal]

3 hours ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

So this theory posted on this reddit thread has rapidly gained a lot of interest and lots of confirmation. So. SCIENCE!

Before opening any Santa's Mega Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships: Duca d'Aosta, Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov?

Likewise before opening any Santa's Big Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships Admiral Makarov, California or Orkan

The theory is if you get a ship then it will choose one of these 3 or 4 ships (depending on the gift).  I *believe* this ship should appear from that gift container.*

BUT if you already have it then you will instead get a super container (with I believe the super container animation)* with a ship you don't already have from the far longer 107 ship list.

So in my case I already have Duca d'Aosta (from a Santa Gift from last year... oddly enough...) so it's possible for me to get *any* ship from the full list if I buy a Mega Gift Container and get lucky. But I should be unsurprised if I end up with Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov (which I don't have)

However as I don't have Makarov, California or Orkan, then by the short list rule the first ship I get must be one of them if I open a Big gift and get a ship. After getting at least one I can again get any ship on the list.

This is obviously clearer if you open the containers one at a time but also full results are also interesting.

So if you've opened Mega or Big gifts this year and you got at least one ship:
Did it follow this rule? Please tell us.
Do we have anyone who doesn't have any ship from the relevant short list who gets another ship first? Please tell us what you got.


Edit: *A note on the gift crate vs supercontainer animation. As any unowned shortlisted ship could *also* come out of a super container if they're a ship that the player doesn't own so I'm less sure how important the animation is. It's more I don't expect *any* other ship to come directly out of a gift container animation aside the 3 or 4 from the shortlist than never expecting any from the short list to come from the super container..

Edit 2: Likewise short listed ships were specifically mentioned in previous years 2016 Christmas Box  2017 Christmas Box. But not from 2018 Loot Box.

I bought several containers and this theory didn't work for me. The boxes worked the same as last year; you got ships from the list filling from the bottom tiers up. You get all the tier 5s, then the tier 6s, 7s, and that's when I pulled the Ochakov, after I got the Champagne. I have most of the list from last year, and it definitely filled by tier. 

[clammboy]

43 minutes ago, Mudd_H_F__XX said:

You have been sent a gift by me. Ho Ho Ho! May it serve you well.

 

32 minutes ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

That's exceptionally kind of you, thank you.

Although I am a little abashed to admit this is my alt account specifically to...

*checks posting record*

Talk about dispersion and apparently stir up scandal across the pond.

You have both been sent a gift by me for exemplifying the true Christmas spirit .  Ho Ho 

[Ensign_Cthulhu]

3 minutes ago, Wombatmetal said:

that's when I pulled the Ochakov, after I got the Champagne

To clarify: you pulled the Champagne directly from a Santa Crate without it throwing you a reroll supercontainer?

[Wombatmetal]

4 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

To clarify: you pulled the Champagne directly from a Santa Crate without it throwing you a reroll supercontainer?

Not sure, I opened all crates. Lazy. But having worked through Tier 8 I am on Tier 9, though having spent all my planned money have stopped. I did pull the Nuestrashimy