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Hukom

How WG Chooses Your Santa Gift Ship

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Very interesting discussion on reddit by u/hmsmanchester. Here's the entire text, plus a comment to the post that I find equally interesting. 

 

How WG Chooses Your Santa Gift Ship, And Why You Will Probably Get Makarov)

If you've been following the initial reports of Santa big gift results, you will probably notice something odd: a flood of Makarovs, the tier 6 Soviet Nurnberg, have graced those lucky enough to get a ship. This is not a bizarre coincidence - it is a consequence of the way Santa gifts allocate ships. It is complicated, but I am going to try my best to explain it.

Say you win a ship.

Hooray! However, is the ship you win truly random? WG explains that:

If a ship that you already have in your Port is dropped, the Santa's Big Gift container will be replaced by a supercontainer. The latter will contain another ship from the list along with a Port slot and Commander with 10 skill points.

While confusingly worded, they do allude to the fact that, in the first instance, you do not receive a ship from the whole pool of available premium ships. Rather, you receive a ship from a select shortlist (which differs depending on box type), and you will receive it in a Santa crate box, NOT a supercontainer.

You only get a random drop from the whole list of available ships if you roll a shortlisted ship which you already have in port or in a previously purchased crate. If this happens, you receive it in a supercontainer.

What this means is that, if I have no premium ships and buy a gift which luckily includes a vessel, I will only ever receive a ship from the shortlist. My chance of a ship not included on the shortlist is zero.

The implications of this are pretty massive: if lucky enough to secure a ship, the most likely result is that you roll the most common ship on the shortlist. If you do not have it, that's what the container gives you. Makarov is the most common ship in the big gift shortlist, and few people have it - that is why so many (including me) received Makarov as their first gift ship! The same occurred in 2018 with Krasny Krym, and Exeter and Huanghe in 2019.

Due to the importance of the shortlist, you should really consider if you would be happy to receive the shortlisted ships before investing in gifts. If you are lucky enough to get a ship, they will be the most likely outcomes.

I do not have full data for the shortlists yet (and I could have made mistakes owing to the limited data out already), but I will keep this updated as we learn more about this year's crates:

Big Gift Shortlist

  • Tier 6 Soviet cruiser Makarov (common)
  • Tier 7 US battleship California
  • Tier 8 EU destroyer Orkan

Mega Shortlist

  • Tier 6 Italian cruiser Duca D'aosta (common)
  • Tier 7 Japanese destroyer Yuudachi (common)
  • Tier 8 British battleship Vanguard
  • Tier 8 Soviet cruiser Ochakov

Spend wisely!

 

It's a little more complicated than this. My observation is that there's a preferred list. So, let's day Makarov, Yudachi, and Vanguard. You first roll a ship, then you roll for a specific ship. This roll has a chance to drop from the rare pool, general pool, or preferred. So that preferred list has the highest chance to drop.

When you already own the ship then it just rolls from the rare or general list and give it to you from the SC. Even the general list is skewed. Lower tier ships have higher drop chance than the higher tier ones. There's a reason people get a lot of Marblehead from Santa crates

It is not necessary to own all the ships to get a ship from the rare list. There's always a small chance you'll drop one - we have people reporting such drops in the past. However those chances are miniscule. Even then, the rare list also has skew - Belfast and Enterprise are harder to get than Fujin, for example.
 


Link: 

https://www.reddit.com/r/WorldOfWarships/comments/k6ivy5/how_wg_chooses_your_santa_gift_ship_and_why_you/

 

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I'd love a Makarov.

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I too was close to pulling the trigger.  Thanks for the post.

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I am confused about where these "short lists" are derived from.  Is this user gathered data or is it defined by WG somewhere?

I am not doubting the claim at all, it very well might be true, just wondering where the data is sourced from.

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Got an 8 package of Big Gifts as is my only purchase each year.

Got 3 ships, 2x1000 doubloons, 3x15 camouflages.

Ships were as follows, California, Makarov, then one that popped as an SC with Marblehead Lima. 

Always wanted Makarov as she's got some history behing her and the 3/8 ship ratio is hella good, but this also confirms for me the reddit post. Would urge people to not dive deeply into gifts this year regardless of my good luck.

Edited by warheart1992

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40 minutes ago, Hukom said:

Very interesting discussion on reddit by u/hmsmanchester. Here's the entire text, plus a comment to the post that I find equally interesting. 

 

How WG Chooses Your Santa Gift Ship, And Why You Will Probably Get Makarov)

If you've been following the initial reports of Santa big gift results, you will probably notice something odd: a flood of Makarovs, the tier 6 Soviet Nurnberg, have graced those lucky enough to get a ship. This is not a bizarre coincidence - it is a consequence of the way Santa gifts allocate ships. It is complicated, but I am going to try my best to explain it.

Say you win a ship.

Hooray! However, is the ship you win truly random? WG explains that:

If a ship that you already have in your Port is dropped, the Santa's Big Gift container will be replaced by a supercontainer. The latter will contain another ship from the list along with a Port slot and Commander with 10 skill points.

While confusingly worded, they do allude to the fact that, in the first instance, you do not receive a ship from the whole pool of available premium ships. Rather, you receive a ship from a select shortlist (which differs depending on box type), and you will receive it in a Santa crate box, NOT a supercontainer.

You only get a random drop from the whole list of available ships if you roll a shortlisted ship which you already have in port or in a previously purchased crate. If this happens, you receive it in a supercontainer.

What this means is that, if I have no premium ships and buy a gift which luckily includes a vessel, I will only ever receive a ship from the shortlist. My chance of a ship not included on the shortlist is zero.

The implications of this are pretty massive: if lucky enough to secure a ship, the most likely result is that you roll the most common ship on the shortlist. If you do not have it, that's what the container gives you. Makarov is the most common ship in the big gift shortlist, and few people have it - that is why so many (including me) received Makarov as their first gift ship! The same occurred in 2018 with Krasny Krym, and Exeter and Huanghe in 2019.

Due to the importance of the shortlist, you should really consider if you would be happy to receive the shortlisted ships before investing in gifts. If you are lucky enough to get a ship, they will be the most likely outcomes.

I do not have full data for the shortlists yet (and I could have made mistakes owing to the limited data out already), but I will keep this updated as we learn more about this year's crates:

Big Gift Shortlist

  • Tier 6 Soviet cruiser Makarov (common)
  • Tier 7 US battleship California
  • Tier 8 EU destroyer Orkan

Mega Shortlist

  • Tier 6 Italian cruiser Duca D'aosta (common)
  • Tier 7 Japanese destroyer Yuudachi (common)
  • Tier 8 British battleship Vanguard
  • Tier 8 Soviet cruiser Ochakov

Spend wisely!

 

It's a little more complicated than this. My observation is that there's a preferred list. So, let's day Makarov, Yudachi, and Vanguard. You first roll a ship, then you roll for a specific ship. This roll has a chance to drop from the rare pool, general pool, or preferred. So that preferred list has the highest chance to drop.

When you already own the ship then it just rolls from the rare or general list and give it to you from the SC. Even the general list is skewed. Lower tier ships have higher drop chance than the higher tier ones. There's a reason people get a lot of Marblehead from Santa crates

It is not necessary to own all the ships to get a ship from the rare list. There's always a small chance you'll drop one - we have people reporting such drops in the past. However those chances are miniscule. Even then, the rare list also has skew - Belfast and Enterprise are harder to get than Fujin, for example.
 


Link: 

https://www.reddit.com/r/WorldOfWarships/comments/k6ivy5/how_wg_chooses_your_santa_gift_ship_and_why_you/

 

You are spot on. Out of 20 mega containers I received ochachov yuudchi and duca. I also received atago, molotov and degrasse. 

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25 minutes ago, Lert said:

I'd love a Makarov.

Just play the tech tree German ship.

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This is what WG says:

48 minutes ago, Hukom said:

If a ship that you already have in your Port is dropped, the Santa's Big Gift container will be replaced by a supercontainer. The latter will contain another ship from the list along with a Port slot and Commander with 10 skill points.

What hmsmanchester says...

49 minutes ago, Hukom said:

they do allude to the fact that, in the first instance, you do not receive a ship from the whole pool of available premium ships. Rather, you receive a ship from a select shortlist (which differs depending on box type), and you will receive it in a Santa crate box, NOT a supercontainer.

...does not necessarily follow as a corollary. WG's words allude to nothing of the sort, and I don't know how he's reading this into it.

However this....

51 minutes ago, Hukom said:

What this means is that, if I have no premium ships and buy a gift which luckily includes a vessel, I will only ever receive a ship from the shortlist. My chance of a ship not included on the shortlist is zero.

...comes across as highly unreliable, and potentially libellous. Just ONE person receiving ONE of the ships not on his shortlist WITHOUT a supercontainer substitution will make this statement untrue. Whether the untruth constitutes a misperception or a malicious misrepresentation is for you to decide, but in my opinion the general tone of the article does not bode well for it being an unintentional mistake. I think we have an axe-grinder here.

 

11 minutes ago, custer_14 said:

Just play the tech tree German ship.

That depends on what captains he has, and whether he wants to use up the resources required to put a high-point captain into said ship. Flexibility on captain posting is a big part of what makes premium ships so useful and desirable. 

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So in short - this is again cutting on the very fine line of what most folks would understand the boxes to potentially contain? 

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This has been confirmed by many sources now.  Not worth the purchase unless you already have all these low level ships. More bait and switch tactics. 

Most users are going to think they have an equal chance of any ship.  This is not the case.  Well done wargaming. 

Edited by Rothgar_57
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3 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

...comes across as highly unreliable, and potentially libellous. Just ONE person receiving ONE of the ships not on his shortlist WITHOUT a supercontainer substitution will make this statement untrue. Whether the untruth constitutes a misperception or a malicious misrepresentation is for you to decide, but in my opinion the general tone of the article does not bode well for it being an unintentional mistake. I think we have an axe-grinder here.

You don't have enough to make a proper rebuttal too. Moreover, how does your perceiving someone as an 'axe-grinder' support your statement? You are name calling again.

 

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8 minutes ago, Rothgar_57 said:

This has been confirmed by many sources now.  Not worth the purchase unless you already have all these low level ships. More bait and switch tactics. 

Most users are going to think they have an equal chance of any ship.  This is not the case.  Well done wargaming. 

Gambling, it is. And the house always wins.

 

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11 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

WG's words allude to nothing of the sort, and I don't know how he's reading this into it.

The mechanics he outlined seem reasonable considering what people are posting about heir crates.

Wargaming could be more transparent about their mechanics to dispel this theory crafting.

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3 minutes ago, Hukom said:

You don't have enough to make a proper rebuttal too. Moreover, how does your perceiving someone as an 'axe-grinder' support your statement? You are name calling again.

 

I'm openly admitting to stating my opinion. He's trying to state something as an absolute fact, and it appears internally inconsistent.

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13 minutes ago, fourteenfour said:

Flamuu tested it and got Makarov and Yudachi followed by a SC Degrasse

Really? He has access to all the ships, I think. Was he using another account perhaps?

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Just now, Hukom said:

Really? He has access to all the ships, I think. Was he using another account perhaps?

yes, he used his NA account.  pulled Makarov and Yudachi.

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Wow ,,  didnt realize this.  I got your short list all at once in my mega gifts crates, even though I have a ton of ships.  I didnt have any of them.

  • Tier 6 Soviet cruiser Makarov (common
  • Tier 6 Italian cruiser Duca D'aosta (common)
  • Tier 7 Japanese destroyer Yuudachi (common)
  • Tier 8 British battleship Vanguard
  • Tier 8 Soviet cruiser Ochakov

Also got a Lenigrad, Viribus, Yahagi.

I will take it, but was hoping for one of the tier IX that I dont have.  

 

 

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Just now, custer_14 said:

The mechanics he outlined seem reasonable considering what people are posting about heir crates.

What hmsmanchester is reporting in terms of outcomes might be God's own truth, but it's completely different from saying that WG's own words imply it. THAT is what I'm seeing as the first of many red flags in this article. 

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Just now, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

I'm openly admitting to stating my opinion. He's trying to state something as an absolute fact, and it appears internally inconsistent.

Nothing in that post comes across as an absolute fact. And there's no need to engage in name calling.

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17 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Just ONE person receiving ONE of the ships not on his shortlist WITHOUT a supercontainer substitution will make this statement untrue. Whether the untruth constitutes a misperception or a malicious misrepresentation is for you to decide, but in my opinion the general tone of the article does not bode well for it being an unintentional mistake. I think we have an axe-grinder here.

You need to revise your position. It isn't just ONE person but many. It isn't just ONE of the ships. We do not have an axe-grinder here. If you watch the many videos out there on mass openings, you will see the truth of the statements. 

I gather you don't want it to be so but it sure looks like it is. 

Not to worry though - I would expect they have a contingency plan. 

The absolutely amazing thing to me is the simple thought of feeling a need to do this. They would actually sell more crates if it were truly a purely random process. Sure you could weigh the odds of the rarer ships popping up so they were less likely, but doing as folks have described? Nuts. 

It is quite possible they are going to have to make changes behind the scene, probably server-side, so they can then say "well look here, see, not so, buy crates with confidence". When that would happen? I'd think before the weekend. 

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