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Ensign_Cthulhu

Santa crates are here again, and the usual warnings are in order. (ETA: PLUS ONE MORE.)

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1) Don't buy what you can't afford.

2) Don't start with the attitude that you're entitled to a ship just because you bought 20 of the damn things. Even if they told you the odds were 1 in 10, that doesn't mean buying 20 crates guarantees two ships. Probabilities don't add; they multiply. Please go learn how that works, because by its very nature it works against you.

3) If you're not happy with the possibility of receiving the least valuable thing the containers can put out, every time, don't buy.

4) SERIOUSLY DON'T come here to complain if you threw vast amounts of money at crates to get naughty-list ships and you wind up without the ones you wanted BUT you still got doubloons, ships and premium time with market value in excess of what you paid for the crates. The chance that you will get any sympathy in such a situation is essentially zero. 

 

4:10 pm local, EDITED TO ADD:

5) As we approach the afternoon of the first day in North America, there is a very strong trend being reported as follows:

a) That if you do not already own Duca D'Aosta, Yudachi, Vanguard or Ochakov, one or more are overwhelmingly likely to be the first ships you get from MEGA GIFT CRATES.

b) That if you do not already own Admiral Makarov, California or Orkan, one or more are overwhelmingly likely to be the first ships you draw from BIG GIFT CRATES.

THIS BEING THE CASE, MAKE YOUR CRATE PURCHASES WITH THIS IN MIND AND YOUR EYES FIXED FIRMLY ON RULE #3.

 

Edited by Ensign_Cthulhu
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In one (now deleted) Reddit thread.
 

Quote

 

Big (60x): Dubs: 8,000 coal: 45,000 Premium: 90 days New Year Camo: 45 Type 3 - New Year Camo: 90 Winter Strands Camo: 48 New Year Streamer Camo: 96 Frosty Fir Tree Camo: 96 Dragon signals: 30 Red Dragon signals: 30 Wyvern Signals: 30 Hydra Signals: 30 Ouroboros signals: 0 Basilisk signals: 60 Scylla signals: 15 Leviathan signals: 0

Ships: Orkan, California, P. Bagration, Siliwangi

Mega(40x): Dubs: 8,000 coal: 25,000 Premium: 0 New Year Camo: 100 Type 3 - New Year Camo: 100 Winter Strands Camo: 60 New Year Streamer Camo: 120 Frosty Fir Tree Camo: 40 Mosaic Camo: 0 Asian Lantern Camo: 5 Spring Sky camo: 0 Dragon signals: 60 Red Dragon signals: 90 Wyvern Signals: 0 Hydra Signals: 60 Ouroboros signals: 0 Basilisk signals: 30 Scylla signals: 30 Leviathan signals: 30

Ships: Makarov, Champagne, Z-35, Cheshire, Indomitable

 

 

A sample of 60 Big Santa crates and 40 Mega Santa crates gave 4/60 and 4/40 with ships. 40 and 60 aren't a huge sample size, but still better than individual posts of LOOK AT THE SHIP I WON!!!11!!one!!". It would be lovely of course if WG would outright post all the possible rewards with the percentage chance of winning for every box.

 

This Reddit thread about which ship you get.

Quote

Say you win a ship.

Hooray! However, is the ship you win truly random? WG explains that:

If a ship that you already have in your Port is dropped, the Santa's Big Gift container will be replaced by a supercontainer. The latter will contain another ship from the list along with a Port slot and Commander with 10 skill points.

While confusingly worded, they do allude to the fact that, in the first instance, you do not receive a ship from the whole pool of available premium ships. Rather, you receive a ship from a select shortlist (which differs depending on box type), and you will receive it in a Santa crate box, NOT a supercontainer.

You only get a random drop from the whole list of available ships if you roll a shortlisted ship which you already have in port or in a previously purchased crate. If this happens, you receive it in a supercontainer.

Big Gift Shortlist

Tier 6 Soviet cruiser Makarov (common)

Tier 7 US battleship California

Tier 8 EU destroyer Orkan

Mega Shortlist

Tier 6 Italian cruiser Duca D'aosta (common)

Tier 7 Japanese destroyer Yuudachi (common)

Tier 8 British battleship Vanguard

Tier 8 Soviet cruiser Ochakov

 

Edit: Likewise short listed ships were specifically mentioned in previous years 2016 Christmas Box  2017 Christmas Box. But not from 2018 Loot Box.

Edited by SoothingWhaleSongEU
Links to old Christmas box news articles.
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13 minutes ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

I'll cross post these two useful reddit threads.

Unfortunately, right now it's showing me page-not-found for both.

I am assuming that the quoted text is from one of the articles, but it isn't clear without being able to read them whether this was from an aggregation of data or an assertion on the part of an aggrieved user.

For what it's worth, I got five Big Gift containers during the Summer Sale a couple of months ago and the first one dropped me a supercontainer. I have neither the Makarov nor the California nor the Orkan in port, but I do have the Yuudachi. This would seem to indicate that the Big Gift Shortlist you shared is at least partially in error; if there is truth to it, Yuudachi may be listed in the wrong category.

Remember that one contradictory datum calls the entire hypothesis into question. That is how science works.

Edited by Ensign_Cthulhu
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25 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

1) Don't buy what you can't afford.

2) Don't start with the attitude that you're entitled to a ship just because you bought 20 of the damn things. Even if they told you the odds were 1 in 10, that doesn't mean buying 20 crates guarantees two ships. Probabilities don't add; they multiply. Please go learn how that works, because by its very nature it works against you.

3) If you're not happy with the possibility of receiving the least valuable thing the containers can put out, every time, don't buy.

4) SERIOUSLY DON'T come here to complain if you threw vast amounts of money at crates to get naughty-list ships and you wind up without the ones you wanted BUT you still got doubloons, ships and premium time with market value in excess of what you paid for the crates. The chance that you will get any sympathy in such a situation is essentially zero. 

Well, we don't actually know what are the odds because WG won't disclose them. It is like a cassino, but worse.

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1 minute ago, WarStore said:

It is like a cassino, but worse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Monte_Cassino 

As to the actual odds, that's why I said what I said. Trust me, if WG published the odds for these crates, there would be even more salt here than there already is. Too many people don't understand that the chance of pulling a 1 in 100 thing non-exhaustively from two crates isn't exactly 2/100, and that when the draw is non-exhaustive (which is the case with these Santa crates), the chance of success is NEVER 100%

This is what I liked about the sequential bundle things in some of the events this year. They were VERY expensive to buy your way all the way through, but they were exhaustive and ALL the stuff in them was guaranteed if you spent to the capped limit.

My wife is pushing me to buy these crates, mostly so that the kids can have fun opening them with me, but after the incredible run of luck I had in the Summer Sale I don't like my chances! 

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36 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Even if they told you the odds were 1 in 10, that doesn't mean buying 20 crates guarantees two ships.

There is about a 12% chance (~1 in 8) that you will not get ANY ship with those odds and the purchase of 20 containers.....

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54 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Unfortunately, right now it's showing me page-not-found for both.

I am assuming that the quoted text is from one of the articles, but it isn't clear without being able to read them whether this was from an aggregation of data or an assertion on the part of an aggrieved user.

For what it's worth, I got five Big Gift containers during the Summer Sale a couple of months ago and the first one dropped me a supercontainer. I have neither the Makarov nor the California nor the Orkan in port, but I do have the Yuudachi. This would seem to indicate that the Big Gift Shortlist you shared is at least partially in error; if there is truth to it, Yuudachi may be listed in the wrong category.

Remember that one contradictory datum calls the entire hypothesis into question. That is how science works.

I think the more likely explanation is that the Gift containers you bought over the summer sale had the 2019 drop table.

And i think citations are needed for that reddit information. Whether WG said that or it's just theory crafting. I think the belief last year was that the ships were listed on the table by drop chance.

Also I just now noticed the irony in calling them "Gift" boxes.

Edited by RainbowFartingUnicorn

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27 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Unfortunately, right now it's showing me page-not-found for both.

I am assuming that the quoted text is from one of the articles, but it isn't clear without being able to read them whether this was from an aggregation of data or an assertion on the part of an aggrieved user.

For what it's worth, I got five Big Gift containers during the Summer Sale a couple of months ago and the first one dropped me a supercontainer. I have neither the Makarov nor the California nor the Orkan in port, but I do have the Yuudachi. This would seem to indicate that the Big Gift Shortlist you shared is at least partially in error; if there is truth to it, Yuudachi may be listed in the wrong category.

Remember that one contradictory datum calls the entire hypothesis into question. That is how science works.

The first one was apparently taken down due to what I perceive is some overzealous modding, but upshot was a 4/60 ship for Big crates and 4/40 for Mega Crates. It's not a *huge* sample size.

The second one should have a fixed link and is an aggregation of data.

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The problem with these crates is that they also have too many garbage in them. Even if you do get a ship by some miracle, you probably won't get something you like

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28 minutes ago, RainbowFartingUnicorn said:

I think the more likely explanation is that the Gift containers you bought over the summer sale had the 2019 drop table.

Oh for sure, if something comes up to explain that contradictory datum then it stops being contradictory - but at the same time, it puts a further qualification upon the hypothesis: i.e. "only valid for the current year".

30 minutes ago, SoothingWhaleSongEU said:

The first one was apparently taken down due to what I perceive is some overzealous modding, but upshot was a 4/60 ship for Big crates and 4/40 for Mega Crates. It's not a *huge* sample size.

The second one should have a fixed link and is an aggregation of data.

Duly noted; thank you.

 

37 minutes ago, MannyD_of_The_Sea said:

Add warning #4 for the present situation: Don’t purchase any crates that you cant afford to not receive.

Yes, but that seems to be a bug that is operative as we speak, not affecting all users, which has already been addressed in a separate thread. I'm discussing general principles here, not glitches. 

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Not one red cent... Thats how much WG is getting from me this Christmas. Oh I will renew my annual subscription but thats it for my spending until WG starts listening to the community about what WE want. 1 whale gone they might not notice but if the rest of you spend with your conscience as well they might hear us. Lets make this the worst Christmas season WG has ever had. 

Whose with me?

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10 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Oh for sure, if something comes up to explain that contradictory datum then it stops being contradictory - but at the same time, it puts a further qualification upon the hypothesis: i.e. "only valid for the current year".

Duly noted; thank you.

 

Yes, but that seems to be a bug that is operative as we speak, not affecting all users, which has already been addressed in a separate thread. I'm discussing general principles here, not glitches. 

I don't know about that, I think it's fairly common sense for the tables to be updated each year with the previous twelve months' worth of new premiums. What I'm wondering about is the validity of the information from Reddit posted above. I think it's probably untrue in the specific sense. We know that there is a bias toward lower-tier drops and against rare ships and Tier IX ships, but I also know that last year it was possible to get higher drops before lower drops, just apparently less likely. I got a couple of rare or Tier IX ships last year and I am still missing a few of the Tier VIII and below ones from last year's drop pool.

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People who need to read this the most don’t come to the forums, until they come to post about how they got ripped off by WG.

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10 minutes ago, RainbowFartingUnicorn said:

What I'm wondering about is the validity of the information from Reddit posted above. I think it's probably untrue in the specific sense.

If it's a hypothesis generated from an aggregation of data from the 2020 crate drops that went live this morning, I've got no problem with it AS A HYPOTHESIS or as a descriptive finding. I have a problem with it as a hard-and-fast rule. Some people are ALWAYS going to pull a Missouri or an Enterprise out of the first crate while others get a Huang He or a Yudachi. The problem lies in determining which ships are the triggers if you have two or more of them, and I'm not sure the sample size is adequate.

The five Big Gift containers I bought during the Summer Sale yielded, for ships, a supercontainer with a Boise in it. We can know for a fact that whatever drop table they were using in that event MUST have hit ONE of my existing premiums, but which one of the many was it? 

Edited by Ensign_Cthulhu

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17 minutes ago, MizzenMast said:

thats it for my spending until WG starts listening to the community about what WE want.

What WE ALL want, or what YOU and your cadre of like-minded people want? Believe it or not, that second one may not necessarily be what's best for the game.

20 minutes ago, MizzenMast said:

Lets make this the worst Christmas season WG has ever had. 

If you want to cripple their bottom line, including their R&D budget, because you're not impressed with the product, the proverbial gun is pointed at your own foot. Don't be surprised if it hurts when you pull the trigger.

11 minutes ago, FrodoFraggin said:

People who need to read this the most don’t come to the forums, until they come to post about how they got ripped off by WG.

Yeah, I know. Sometimes I wonder why I bother putting up these PSA's, because I'm starting to get compassion fatigue and the temptation just to sit back and laugh as they rage in their misfortune is very, very strong.

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2 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

What WE ALL want, or what YOU and your cadre of like-minded people want? Believe it or not, that second one may not necessarily be what's best for the game.

The cadre of like minded people happen to be the greater percentage of the player base. What the majority of players want IS whats best for the game. 

2 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

If you want to cripple their bottom line, including their R&D budget, because you're not impressed with the product, the proverbial gun is pointed at your own foot. Don't be surprised if it hurts when you pull the trigger.

If it gets to a point where they are crippled then woe unto WG for not listening but thats business. When they see a downtrend in their earnings it would behoove them to learn why.  Once again, thats business. Lastly this is the same R&D that brought about the CV rework, the soon to be subs & the new captain skills (all of which are largely disliked), maybe a bit of crippling is a good thing. 

Dont get me wrong, I want WG to be successful but I want them to be successful at what they WERE, not in what they are trying to be. I've run premium time non stop for 5yrs, own every premium ship & have bought God knows how many containers, flags, camos etc etc ad nauseum in the game. I am certain it exceeds 10k spent. Obviously that is a significant investment so if I am willing to tell WG to go fish they really should listen... 

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7 minutes ago, MizzenMast said:

The cadre of like minded people happen to be the greater percentage of the player base.

Are you so absolutely sure?

7 minutes ago, MizzenMast said:

Obviously that is a significant investment so if I am willing to tell WG to go fish they really should listen... 

The weight of your opinion is not determined by the amount of money you have spent on the game, and bringing it into your argument in public is the sort of behaviour I find unimpressive at the best of times.

8 minutes ago, MizzenMast said:

I want them to be successful at what they WERE, not in what they are trying to be.

In other words, you don't like the way the game is changing. That's your right, but the voices here on this forum are a minority of the playerbase and you can't presume to speak for them. What you are saying comes across in the same vein as the subtle "Be on the right side of history" cyberbullying I have seen elsewhere, and it doesn't impress me.

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2 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Are you so absolutely sure?

Absolutely? No but reasonably... See below

2 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

The weight of your opinion is not determined by the amount of money you have spent on the game, and bringing it into your argument in public is the sort of behaviour I find unimpressive at the best of times.

It certainly should! How much of your precious R&D has the F2P crowd generated? Lets face facts, the FSP folks are here to provide targets & hopefully some competition for the paying customers. To think otherwise is naïve at best. 

2 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

In other words, you don't like the way the game is changing. That's your right, but the voices here on this forum are a minority of the playerbase and you can't presume to speak for them. What you are saying comes across in the same vein as the subtle "Be on the right side of history" cyberbullying I have seen elsewhere, and it doesn't impress me.

You're right, the voices here are a minority of the player base. However it is a decent sampling size. Lets say 10% of the player base are forum denizens & we will conservatively guess 70% of said denizens disapprove of the current trend its a pretty fair guess that a similar percentage applies to the player base et al. 

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2 hours ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Monte_Cassino 

As to the actual odds, that's why I said what I said. Trust me, if WG published the odds for these crates, there would be even more salt here than there already is. Too many people don't understand that the chance of pulling a 1 in 100 thing non-exhaustively from two crates isn't exactly 2/100, and that when the draw is non-exhaustive (which is the case with these Santa crates), the chance of success is NEVER 100%

This is what I liked about the sequential bundle things in some of the events this year. They were VERY expensive to buy your way all the way through, but they were exhaustive and ALL the stuff in them was guaranteed if you spent to the capped limit.

My wife is pushing me to buy these crates, mostly so that the kids can have fun opening them with me, but after the incredible run of luck I had in the Summer Sale I don't like my chances! 

I want laws created so that, as Casinos are required to do, the "odds" must be published.....  An informed consumer is a good consumer.   And, our Government is working on just that.  Some governments, already have.

Will that stop crazy spending......no.  Will it help those whom suffer from compulsions.......yes.  So, this year...........only if I receive crates as gifts.   The CPT respec will be the straw anyway.........

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32 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Are you so absolutely sure?

The weight of your opinion is not determined by the amount of money you have spent on the game, and bringing it into your argument in public is the sort of behaviour I find unimpressive at the best of times.

In other words, you don't like the way the game is changing. That's your right, but the voices here on this forum are a minority of the playerbase and you can't presume to speak for them. What you are saying comes across in the same vein as the subtle "Be on the right side of history" cyberbullying I have seen elsewhere, and it doesn't impress me.

There is a quiet majority.  My older friends that were in the game shared my opinions and never touched the forums.....  Some were compelled not to by their jobs.......since, some have to register game names as part of NDA's and other requirements....  Life isn't so simple sometimes in a "connected world" of instant identification and thought.....

"Money talks and [edited] Walks" the saying goes.....  In a good number of "other games", the pro players and clans have enormous influence with those corporations and that is very well concealed.   In some Forums, you can actually track game names to changes......  I haven't run that trap in this game because we don't have an eSports program.  It would be interesting to see what Clans are able to influence product development though....

Change is inevitable.....especially,  in mature games.....  Thanos was right......  Change is inevitable.  And, in my professional experience, change is not always "right" even if the math underneath the Change says "we're right...."   I've got some great stories about "being right".....   Now, "History" is the only fool proof test of any assumption !  Santaya and Burke, where Santayana I think got the idea from, and Burke, from the Greeks centuries before:  "those who cannot remember history are condemned to repeat it...."   So, what have we learnt about the actual history of any game???  Fun trumps odds.  Enjoyment compels participation.  Beauty defines memories.  Challenge compels investment.....  et al....... So, where are we.........a sad commentary or something you'd want to share?  That, is a personal choice we each make.....

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3 hours ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

1) Don't buy what you can't afford.

Do you have any idea where the Secret Santa tradition thread might be. I'd love to participate.

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3 hours ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

My wife is pushing me to buy these crates, mostly so that the kids can have fun opening them with me,

Does she have a sister, cousin, step-sister?

 

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It isn't the fact that the containers have a chance of not dropping ships that is the issue. If someone absolutely wants ships, pay the price and buy them. When you buy a container you know you are gambling.

Rather it is the fact that WG is being deliberately misleading about what ships the containers can drop, if the player gets lucky, is what is disgusting in this whole matter.

When you gamble and you bet and the house obviously has the benefit in odds but when they lie before you place you bets about how much you might get when you win, that sounds pretty nasty and illegal to me.

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Only 1/10?   I feel like the odds used to be much better, I feel like in 2018 the odds were closer to 1/5.  

They clearly are not random and are instead weighted or even just assigned in order, the rarest and most desired ships will NOT be given to you unless you already have most of the ships on the list.   Don't buy thinking you're gonna get Enterprise or Belfast in a stack of 20, its simply not going to happen.   

Given that the best thing you could honestly expect to get is coal, its probably best to avoid the crates entirely.

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