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Kiwirat

Very High Win Rate Question

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I am curious as to how some players manage such high win rates in excess of 65%.

As an example I just came across a player who had a win rate of 93.33% over 30 battles in a Puerto Rico. Can someone please explain to me how this is possible when you are randomly placed in teams and the law of averages tells you that there is at least a 50% chance you will be in a team that may lose. That same player has many other ships win win rates in excess of 80% over many battles.

I have to say I class myself as a recreation player with over 8000 battles and struggle to reach 49%. Often it does not matter how well you play and even though you may end in the top 3, the team still loses. You sometimes just get a run of those battles and that is the luck of RNG player selection. I know this may spark a series of git-gud comments, but it is a simple question that a number of average players struggle with.

Positive advice welcome.

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I've often wondered about this too. 

I'm a lot like you...casual player. 

The best I've figured out over the years is ....

3 very good players can div up a lot and play ...I imagine they could probably win 60% of the time. 

If they play low tier games..maybe 70% 

93%  though ?? That's one hell of a win streak ! 

Edited by Renuz

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1 minute ago, Kiwirat said:

I am curious as to how some players manage such high win rates in excess of 65%.

As an example I just came across a player who had a win rate of 93.33% over 30 battles in a Puerto Rico. Can someone please explain to me how this is possible when you are randomly placed in teams and the law of averages tells you that there is at least a 50% chance you will be in a team that may lose. That same player has many other ships win win rates in excess of 80% over many battles.

I have to say I class myself as a recreation player with over 8000 battles and struggle to reach 49%. Often it does not matter how well you play and even though you may end in the top 3, the team still loses. You sometimes just get a run of those battles and that is the luck of RNG player selection. I know this may spark a series of git-gud comments, but it is a simple question that a number of average players struggle with.

Positive advice welcome.

Sure.  It's pretty simple it largely boils down to three things.

  1. Small Sample Sizes  -- While it's not easy to achieve a high win rate over 30 games, it's a Hell of a lot easier than doing the same over a more meaningful sample of 100, 200 or 500 games.  So yes, a 93.33% win rate over 30 games is commendable but it's probably not an accurate indication of their true proficiency.  Streaks happen.  Bad RNGeebus happens.  Etc.
  2. Divisions -- Teamwork is overpowered.  Bringing division mates erases one of the biggest RNG-based winrate modifiers, namely being on the better team.  Populate your side with one or two extra competent players and this has a tremendous influence on your chances of winning.  Combined with the small sample size above and BAM.
  3. They're a good player.  Doubtless, they are skilled -- probably not as skilled as their stats are indicating in that one ship, but they probably know their way around World of Warships.

 

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11 minutes ago, Kiwirat said:

I am curious as to how some players manage such high win rates in excess of 65%.

As an example I just came across a player who had a win rate of 93.33% over 30 battles in a Puerto Rico. Can someone please explain to me how this is possible when you are randomly placed in teams and the law of averages tells you that there is at least a 50% chance you will be in a team that may lose. That same player has many other ships win win rates in excess of 80% over many battles.

I have to say I class myself as a recreation player with over 8000 battles and struggle to reach 49%. Often it does not matter how well you play and even though you may end in the top 3, the team still loses. You sometimes just get a run of those battles and that is the luck of RNG player selection. I know this may spark a series of git-gud comments, but it is a simple question that a number of average players struggle with.

Positive advice welcome.

Kiwi I have played with you a few times previously and you're not too shabby,
You have to play NZ local time 6pm-9pm to get the best pick of team mates 
Saturday night, Monday Night, Tuesday night, 
It is going to be hard fought wins but it is possible with the teams at our local times, 
Just seems to be better players on during those nights of the week. 
I generally rock between Destroyer or BattleShips at tier 8-9 
I play more premium ships than I play tech tree ships. 

But I have played along side you and against you, 
If you brush up on your tactics you'll turn that W/R around. 
I am speaking from experience too having mine at 48.72% W/R when I was at 7500 battles played.
I am now at 50.61% W/R at 11,000 battles played. 
Has been a slog but I crossed that line. 

If you don't want to tank your W/R then don't play outside the suggested times at all in PvP, 
Because as hard as you fight, sometimes you just cannot carry the bad players. 
So knowing you need good ones online, the times I said above seems to have the good ones on, weather that is because it is when the Kiwi's all logon.... we know it isn't because the Ozies logged on. :P 

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1. Triple divs with unicums. Guaranteeing 3 excellent players on your team should give you at least 75% WR. 

2. Play sealclub or OP ships. The best ships can achieve 65%+ WR even when solo. 

33 minutes ago, Kiwirat said:

I Can someone please explain to me how this is possible when you are randomly placed in teams and the law of averages tells you that there is at least a 50% chance you will be in a team that may lose. That same player has many other ships win win rates in excess of 80% over many battles.

3. Git gud. Actually the most important step since your individual skill will influence 100% of the matches you play. Law of averages only means everyone will eventually get the same number of bad teams and good teams. The difference is what you yourself contribute to each team. That is why some players have 40% WR and others have 70% WR. The skill difference between a hurricane level competitive player and an average player is immediately noticable. 

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10 minutes ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

Sure.  It's pretty simple it largely boils down to three things.

  1. Small Sample Sizes  -- While it's not easy to achieve a high win rate over 30 games, it's a Hell of a lot easier than doing the same over a more meaningful sample of 100, 200 or 500 games.  So yes, a 93.33% win rate over 30 games is commendable but it's probably not an accurate indication of their true proficiency.  Streaks happen.  Bad RNGeebus happens.  Etc.
  2. Divisions -- Teamwork is overpowered.  Bringing division mates erases one of the biggest RNG-based winrate modifiers, namely being on the better team.  Populate your side with one or two extra competent players and this has a tremendous influence on your chances of winning.  Combined with the small sample size above and BAM.
  3. They're a good player.  Doubtless, they are skilled -- probably not as skilled as their stats are indicating in that one ship, but they probably know their way around World of Warships.

 

^ Is the gist of it.

Look at the player's SOLO stats. Many of the players on the leaderboard at WoWS Stats & Numbers have winrates in the 80's due to divisioning; almost all have solo winrates of less than 65%. Some of these folks almost never play solo; one with ~1800 battles has played less than 200 solo games. 

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37 minutes ago, Your_SAT_Score said:

3. Git gud. Actually the most important step since your individual skill will influence 100% of the matches you play. Law of averages only means everyone will eventually get the same number of bad teams and good teams. The difference is what you yourself contribute to each team. That is why some players have 40% WR and others have 70% WR. The skill difference between a hurricane level competitive player and an average player is immediately noticable. 

I can't tell you how many arguments I've had in game about how an individual can influence their own WR.  There are so many players that think they have no control over their WR and therefore don't put in the effort to improve.  I tell them they can look my stats up and see my WR chart and the few that do so think I've just gotten lucky over THOUSANDS of solo games.  You can lead the horse to water.....etc.

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3 hours ago, Pugilistic said:

Some of these folks almost never play solo; one with ~1800 battles has played less than 200 solo games.

Then there is me; 9,790 Randoms; 43 in divisions.

Basically 0.004% of my games.

I've played solo for five years now. I'm not even sure I would even know how to be worth a damn in a division.

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Limit the amount of games played to avoid fatigue.

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I dont worry about statistics. Not at that low level. Too much drilling down.

There are ships in my pile that I might have played 5 times and happened to have won in each of them. 100% wr. It means absolutely nothing. I don't play those ships enough to be worth anything in a real fight. In fact there are some forms of gaming I do not play enough of such as Divisions that I doubt that I will be any good. SO I don't bother wasting time in it.

My stats consider me a super unicom in coop. ANyone can do Coop all day long. Its the randoms and ranked that are destructive to win rates. I think the last ranked season had about 20 victories out of 150+ played and the random even worse than that in percentage. That does not tell the whole story though.

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5 hours ago, Kiwirat said:

I am curious as to how some players manage such high win rates in excess of 65%.

As an example I just came across a player who had a win rate of 93.33% over 30 battles in a Puerto Rico. Can someone please explain to me how this is possible when you are randomly placed in teams and the law of averages tells you that there is at least a 50% chance you will be in a team that may lose. That same player has many other ships win win rates in excess of 80% over many battles.

I have to say I class myself as a recreation player with over 8000 battles and struggle to reach 49%. Often it does not matter how well you play and even though you may end in the top 3, the team still loses. You sometimes just get a run of those battles and that is the luck of RNG player selection. I know this may spark a series of git-gud comments, but it is a simple question that a number of average players struggle with.

Positive advice welcome.

The Puerto Rico sample is too small. It is easy to achieve High win rates with small numbers of games. The trick is sustained 70% win rate across hundreds of games. Pretty much the only way to do that is to be divisions with other good players.

To all the other good advice listed above, you should also consider moving to a clan where you can give with good players who will teach you. Being with good players who complement your skills is also a must. For example, I often Play support Battleship to a couple of very good Destroyer players. That helps keep everyone's win rate up...

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5 hours ago, Kiwirat said:

As an example I just came across a player who had a win rate of 93.33% over 30 battles in a Puerto Rico. Can someone please explain to me how this is possible when you are randomly placed in teams and the law of averages tells you that there is at least a 50% chance you will be in a team that may lose. That same player has many other ships win win rates in excess of 80% over many battles.

First of all, 30 matches is a very small sample size and as such isn't necessarily representative of the player's actual skill. In my experience WR starts being representative at around 150 matches although trends upwards or downwards can be seen earlier.

To put it simply, law of averages only applies to the amount of default wins and losses you will inevitably suffer, but that leaves the amount of matches you could have influenced personally and thus makes (solo) WR an accurate representation of your own skill. The distribution goes something like this:
- 20% default loss
- 5% super unicum hard carry
- 10% unicum carry
- 15% carry
- 15% decent contribution
- 10% just need to not be incompetent
- 5% basically just don't be afk
- 20% default win

(Values are not accurate but should give you the right idea.)
Default wins/losses due to random MM are the reason why even afk bots do not have a 0% WR. Likewise it is impossible to sustain 100% WR with a representative amount of matches played regardless of how skilled you are. Any other match you personally hold influence over.

Other factors include divisions, which will either boost or drag down your WR depending on the skill of both you and your division mates, and the class you play, e.g. Aircraft Carriers are far more influential than cruisers and as such have a higher WR ceiling and a lower WR floor.

Typical solo WR caps out at about 75% for DDs, BBs and cruisers and around 85% for CVs. Divisioning with other highly skilled players can push you to around 90%.

Including the advice already given here I could recommend joining either the official WoWs or the Help Me server and seek help there. The latter can be found here: https://discord.gg/c4vK9rM

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its fairly common to get long streaks of wins or defeats (puts tin foil hat) so its not a surprise to see this kind of results over low amount of battles specialy if the player is good and platoons with good players.

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4 hours ago, Estimated_Prophet said:

Then there is me; 9,790 Randoms; 43 in divisions.

Basically 0.004% of my games.

I've played solo for five years now. I'm not even sure I would even know how to be worth a damn in a division.

Same here. I have no idea how to play with others lol.

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9 hours ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

Sure.  It's pretty simple it largely boils down to three things.

  1. Small Sample Sizes  -- While it's not easy to achieve a high win rate over 30 games, it's a Hell of a lot easier than doing the same over a more meaningful sample of 100, 200 or 500 games.  So yes, a 93.33% win rate over 30 games is commendable but it's probably not an accurate indication of their true proficiency.  Streaks happen.  Bad RNGeebus happens.  Etc.
  2. Divisions -- Teamwork is overpowered.  Bringing division mates erases one of the biggest RNG-based winrate modifiers, namely being on the better team.  Populate your side with one or two extra competent players and this has a tremendous influence on your chances of winning.  Combined with the small sample size above and BAM.
  3. They're a good player.  Doubtless, they are skilled -- probably not as skilled as their stats are indicating in that one ship, but they probably know their way around World of Warships.

 

I can vouch for #1. I had a 65% WR for the first 100 or so games in the Tirpitz. Thought I could do no wrong in that thing. Now that I am closer to 400 matches I am down to 55%, much closer to my overall average.

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9 hours ago, Kiwirat said:

As an example I just came across a player who had a win rate of 93.33% over 30 battles in a Puerto Rico.

FWIW, I started out this game (never having played other than 2 battles during the very early beta,) with a 19-1 record (in random, not co-op.) Just beginners luck for sure ;)

There's one player out there, I'm blanking on his name, but he's got an over 70% w/r and he plays always solo. I've had him in a half dozen or so matches (that I noticed.) He is extremely patient, and extremely accurate. He plays a good variety of ships too... it is impressive as hell to me that he can pull it off. There are lots of unicums who can get 60+ winrates by div'n up a lot, but it is very rare to see anyone in the 60+ range who's a solo player... maybe with a few hundred battles, playing a handful of very powerful ships, especially if they're seal clubbing for stats - but to do it with dozens and dozens of ships, over thousands of battles... yah that's crazy good. 

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Gotta remember....a good win rate doesn't mean he lived through the 30 matches, or played particularly well.

There are way too many (weekend) players worried about win rates. There are so many variables that go into figuring it out. Lots depends on the team you get placed with, if you're in a division and if it's a division of good players.

For that high of a win rate....I'd have to say it's not a true reading on that player. But the chance of being lucky that in 29 matches ended in wins for his team. Could have been 1st dead in every single match.

At least this is how I (don't) look at win rates per player or individual ship(s) they play.

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I only look at solo WR, not from in game.

#BANdivision

division shouldn't count for win rate, just saying, make it all RANDOM

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5 hours ago, Estimated_Prophet said:

Then there is me; 9,790 Randoms; 43 in divisions.

Basically 0.004% of my games.

I've played solo for five years now. I'm not even sure I would even know how to be worth a damn in a division.

 

1 hour ago, Skpstr said:

Same here. I have no idea how to play with others lol.

Divs can be a lot of fun and even most newbies pick up on it pretty quick.  Ofcourse it isn't suited for everyone.  

Overall you just do a lot of vocalizing when you spot new situations and threats, keeping each other appraised of the tactical situation. Like letting a div mate know when say a BB is going to get their Broadside soon.  Or letting them know when an enemy ship might give broadside soon. 

There is  lots to be said about divisions and how they work. Unicum divisions work somewhat different too from my experience. 

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1 minute ago, eviltane said:

 

Divs can be a lot of fun and even most newbies pick up on it pretty quick.  Ofcourse it isn't suited for everyone.  

Overall you just do a lot of vocalizing when you spot new situations and threats, keeping each other appraised of the tactical situation. Like letting a div mate know when say a BB is going to get their Broadside soon.  Or letting them know when an enemy ship might give broadside soon. 

There is  lots to be said about divisions and how they work. Unicum divisions work somewhat different too from my experience. 

unicum division is best at focusing fire and eliminate you in 30s, the opposition is half dead within 5 minute if aggressive. so the only hope is the teammates of unicorns are not great AND your teammate know how to hold position.

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9 hours ago, Your_SAT_Score said:

The difference is what you yourself contribute to each team. That is why some players have 40% WR and others have 70% WR.

That's the gist of what he puzzles about. Is it for real that a single individual can contribute enough and consistently to make such a difference? I also have ships that hit this 70% mark over a noticeable amount of matches but I always have these crawling doubts if it was really my skill or I was just lucky. Also I have ships which look good but I just can't have a break--there is always something wrong when I play them; I swear my Moskva is cursed.

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1 minute ago, dimzzy said:

That's the gist of what he puzzles about. Is it for real that a single individual can contribute enough and consistently to make such a difference? I also have ships that hit this 70% mark over a noticeable amount of matches but I always have these crawling doubts if it was really my skill or I was just lucky. Also I have ships which look good but I just can't have a break--there is always something wrong when I play them; I swear my Moskva is cursed.

If skilled enough for sure.  I mean look at El2azer profile.  He carries 71.4 % win rate over   13000 solo  games. 

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10 hours ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

Divisions -- Teamwork is overpowered.  Bringing division mates erases one of the biggest RNG-based winrate modifiers, namely being on the better team

That being said, how do you feel about these unicum try-hard divisions? Do you think it's fun to encounter them on the red team and know right away that your chances to win just became much lower? I'm asking because people complain so much about broken ships and how the game is doomed now after the next Smolensk shows up but somehow these divs are just fine.

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