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MollyGodiva

Number of Containers Needed for Collections

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I was wondering how many containers one would need to complete a collections, so I calculated it using a Monte-Carlo style simulation.

Assumptions:

1. All items have equal probability to drop that is not dependent on what sub-collection it is in, or if you already have it.

2. One would not purchase any items using duplicates until you could complete the entire collection with purchases.

3. Containers do not always drop items, and this is not taken into account since I have no data on that (but I will start keeping track). But that is just linear (so if there is a 50% chance of dropping an item, just divide the Ave. Number of Crates by 0.5 to get the total number of crates needed). If anyone knows these probabilities I can factor this in.

4. I am assuming that there is no more then one item dropped per container. For ones that drop more then one item, just divide the Ave Number of Crates by however many that crate drops. If anyone knows which ones drop more then one please let me know.

Here are my results. I only calculated the collections that I know the cost of missing items. If people would let me know the data for the missing ones I would appreciate it. Also if I made any errors please let me know, I could have gotten some data confused.

image.png.a58be2bf2ddec5dd5e2b6696fcc7cb1b.png

Edited by MollyGodiva
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Assumption Number 3 is incorrect - a container dedicated to a particular event will always drop an item (or two, depending on the collection), whether it be unique or duplicate.

The exception to this rule is subscription collections, which can drop in the three daily containers. Daily containers will NOT always drop a collection item, but this is of lesser importance since you will inevitably gain enough items to finish eventually.

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7 hours ago, MollyGodiva said:

I was wondering how many containers one would need to complete a collections, so I calculated it using a Monte-Carlo style simulation.

Assumptions:

1. All items have equal probability to drop that is not dependent on what sub-collection it is in, or if you already have it.

2. One would not purchase any items using duplicates until you could complete the entire collection with purchases.

3. Containers do not always drop items, and this is not taken into account since I have no data on that (but I will start keeping track). But that is just linear (so if there is a 50% chance of dropping an item, just divide the Ave. Number of Crates by 0.5 to get the total number of crates needed). If anyone knows these probabilities I can factor this in.

Here are my results. I only calculated the collections that I know the cost of missing items. If people would let me know the data for the missing ones I would appreciate it. Also if I made any errors please let me know, I could have gotten some data confused.

image.png.a58be2bf2ddec5dd5e2b6696fcc7cb1b.png

Thanks for posting this, it is informative. Could you please add the "Resolute and Rapid" collection, as well? (that's what I am currently working on)

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23 minutes ago, HamAndCheez said:

Thanks for posting this, it is informative. Could you please add the "Resolute and Rapid" collection, as well? (that's what I am currently working on) 

Sure. Just tell me how many items and how many duplicates needed to purchase an item.

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1 hour ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Assumption Number 3 is incorrect - a container dedicated to a particular event will always drop an item (or two, depending on the collection), whether it be unique or duplicate.

The exception to this rule is subscription collections, which can drop in the three daily containers. Daily containers will NOT always drop a collection item, but this is of lesser importance since you will inevitably gain enough items to finish eventually.

Yes. I agree. So for those the probability of getting an item in a container is 1.0, and my numbers are still fine. I may specify which are subscriptions ones and which are not. I wish I had data on the probabilities to drop an item for each type of crate (and some will be 1.0).

Edited by MollyGodiva
Added point.

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Added some more. Got the data from PTS.

King of Sea 16 1 16.0 0.0
2 Years of World of Warships 16 2 20.4 1.0
3 Years of World of Warships 16 3 23.4 1.7
Battle for North Cape 16 4 25.5 2.3
Dunkirk 16 5 27.3 2.8
Royal Navy 16 5 27.3 2.8
Belle Epoque 16 5 27.3 2.8
Royal Navy 16 5 27.3 2.8
Naval Aviation 16 5 27.3 2.8
Viva La France 18 3 26.3 1.8
Hunt for Bismark 24 4 38.4 2.9
Five Epochs of the Navy 30 1 30.0 0.0
In the Service of the Motherland 32 5 54.8 4.0
German Navy 36 4 57.5 3.4
Azur Lane 36 5 61.8 4.2
American Cruisers 48 5 82.3 4.9

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Don't forget that some collections can drop items in the regular containers as well, although with a lower chance.

One tactic is therefore to buy a single container of each group to get the collection started (at least those that then drop items in regular containers) and then get the rest over time. Finished quite a few collections that way.

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I track the contents of my Daily containers, and the drop rate for collection items varies wildly. Unfortunately, I don't track what I'm collection at the time, with one exception.

There are periods of 50% collection drops, and periods where no item dropped in 50 consecutive containers.  The Azur Lane collection drop rate seems closer to 67%.

Also, giveaway containers, like from CC codes, do not seem to drop collection items. (Odd, that.)

 

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There are no containers availible for some collections. King of Sea is one, shipbuilding is another. So forget those.

I add up the required duplicates to get a item times total items and thats roughly what it will come out to in the end. The resolute collection was frightfully expensive with 6000 coal a box times about 35 boxes until completed this year. Not doing that again. And that commander stuff is not being used at the moment for lack of any good italian ships. So all that 240K in coal give or take was essentially a waste.

Edited by xHeavy

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I am fairly new to the game so still a lot to learn.  I am finishing the Always Courageous collection and I am missing one item - I have 3 dupes so, even if I get a dupe I can complete it.  My questions are as follows:

a) What type of battle or campaign or mission should I play to have better chances to get this missing item?

b) What are "subscription containers"?

c) I have a premium account for another 27 days - does it make a difference?

d) I have seen an notice for "New Rewards for Prime Gaming Members: 20 Camos and a Black Friday Container!" - how do you get these? what do I have to do?

Sorry if these questions sound stupid, as I said before I have still a lot to learn about this game.

 

Thanks

 

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Good work there OP.

Here is an outlier data point on the "German Navy Collection:  I have pulled 161 items so far.  Agree with discussion earlier that for this collection,  the probability of getting an item in a container is not 1.0.  I also suspect that probabilities for a specific item vary within a collection. that is my opinion only,  no facts to back that up. WG would have to say it specifically, until then, I get to wallow in my confirmation bias of pulling 124...125...126... duplicates. Did anybody else pull the "Type VII Submarine" item? 

 

image.thumb.png.4acffb7270b602f4b458d2c113bd9792.png

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21 hours ago, ChrisM_76 said:

I am fairly new to the game so still a lot to learn.  I am finishing the Always Courageous collection and I am missing one item - I have 3 dupes so, even if I get a dupe I can complete it.  My questions are as follows:

a) What type of battle or campaign or mission should I play to have better chances to get this missing item?

b) What are "subscription containers"?

c) I have a premium account for another 27 days - does it make a difference?

d) I have seen an notice for "New Rewards for Prime Gaming Members: 20 Camos and a Black Friday Container!" - how do you get these? what do I have to do?

  1. Any one that awards an Always Courageous container.
  2. Certain collections are "subscription collections", meaning you can choose to get items dropped in a Daily container.  That's what the green 'Collecting' button does. Only one can set Collecting at a time.
  3. Nope.
  4. Did you read the news article?  Guess not.

This might have some useful information, but I haven't been maintaining it. https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Collections

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