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Call_of_the_Mastodon

Has WG made the 1200 coal container as rare as a Supercontainer? Let's find out!

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After reading on the forums that the 1200 coal container had gotten quite rare, I decided to keep track of my resource containers to get a true drop percentage for each container type. After 300 containers my results broke down like this:
400 coal containers-228/300, or 76%.
800 coal containers-61/300, or 20.33%
1200 coal containers-6/300, or 2%
Supercontainers-5/300, or 1.66%
(the SC's contained 100xPapa Papa flags, 25 Dragon flags, 50 Restless Fire camos, 50 Blue Lagoon camos, and 100xJuliet Charlie flags)
So in short, you have nearly the same odds of pulling a SC from your daily resource containers as you do getting a 1200 coal container. That's about what I expected but it's interesting to see some hard data!
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58 minutes ago, Call_of_the_Mastodon said:
After reading on the forums that the 1200 coal container had gotten quite rare, I decided to keep track of my resource containers to get a true drop percentage for each container type. After 300 containers my results broke down like this:
400 coal containers-228/300, or 76%.
800 coal containers-61/300, or 20.33%
1200 coal containers-6/300, or 2%
Supercontainers-5/300, or 1.66%
(the SC's contained 100xPapa Papa flags, 25 Dragon flags, 50 Restless Fire camos, 50 Blue Lagoon camos, and 100xJuliet Charlie flags)
So in short, you have nearly the same odds of pulling a SC from your daily resource containers as you do getting a 1200 coal container. That's about what I expected but it's interesting to see some hard data!

If you still have the spreadsheet...can you break it down into 100 game blocks (hundred being the basis for percentages) & give a breakdown of the 3 different groups.

Just interested to see how they vary individually.

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Your container drop statistics pretty much matched mine from a few months ago (I have now stopped collecting these data). Actually I was getting almost exactly the same drop rates for an SC as I was the triple coal container of right about 1.5% (basically three out of 200 drops)....Coincidently I got a triple drop this morning... :)

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I guess I need to go buy a lottery ticket. Got 2 -3 coal containers yesterday and average at least 2-3 a week. Of course resources is the only container I pick so maybe that helps.

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I tracked three months of Resources containers using a spreadsheet courtesy of @Counter_Gambit. My results:

image.png.8da98cfcf09b1ffbca4e537474e6cd66.png

I'm not complaining about the averages at all!

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Aside from special events, I've received only 2 Super Containers in regular daily drops since they started.  So never worry about them.  As for the coal, I get 800 and 1200 quite often.  Received one on Tuesday.

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14 hours ago, IfYouSeeKhaos said:

If you still have the spreadsheet...can you break it down into 100 game blocks (hundred being the basis for percentages) & give a breakdown of the 3 different groups.

Just interested to see how they vary individually.

I don't have the order of distribution sadly, my spreadsheet was a ballpoint pen and a piece of paper next to my computer lol.  I'm officially old!

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Got a 1200 coal container today & a “super” container yesterday ...7 days of premium time. I’d rather have a coal, fxp & flag container than premium time. 

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About 2 weeks ago I had a run where I got the 1200 coal container at least once per day and on one day I got it 3 times in a row.  I think I ended up with the triple coal container 5 times that week.

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On 11/4/2020 at 11:35 PM, Call_of_the_Mastodon said:

After 300 containers my results broke down like this:

After 2000+ ~2200 containers, RNGeebus smooths out a little more.  Incidence of triple Coal: 4.86%.  (Eerily close to @Khafni's numbers.)

My own drop rate is still 4.32% over ~750 containers, though I've had several recently that are not in the data.  Interestingly, though my triple Coal drop rate is below average, my total Coal drop rate is spot-on average because I've been getting lots of doubles.  Note that were my triple drop rate closer to average, average would be closer to 5%.

Update: Updated my numbers with the recent clusters of triple Coal.   Incidence of triple Coal: 5.01%

My triple drop rate is now 4.77%.  ~860 crates. Still below average, but much closer.

IMO, 5% can be used as the nominal drop rate.

Spreadsheet

 

Btw, your SC rate is right about the long-term reported average for non-TYL daily containers ~1.5%.

Edited by iDuckman

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Funny you mention it, I got a 1200 coal crate today, and an SC (50 of the bonus captain XP signal) yesterday.:Smile_teethhappy:

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9 hours ago, Call_of_the_Mastodon said:

I don't have the order of distribution sadly, my spreadsheet was a ballpoint pen and a piece of paper next to my computer lol.  I'm officially old!

Hard copies...those are the best spreadsheets...no computer bugs to take all that hard earned data away after you worked so hard to collect it.

If you have those numbers you can figure it yourself sometime...(if you didn't throw them away & care to do it).

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I get quite a few 1200 coal containers...

But there is an issue I really really HATE which is worse I think.... how about NO COAL!!!!

You select RESOURCES and get your container..... ONLY..... its a MEGA container..... and it contains (for example) 50 Camouflages....

That is dishonest... you select resources and it gives you consumables... NO COAL.... wait, resources, where is the freaking resources? I feel cheated out of the minimum 400 coal I should be getting.

A MEGA resource container should, at the very minimum, contain some coal.

Edited by kiwi1960

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Use try your luck, I get 900 whenever I get coal, probably 20 or more SC's... The worst drop is 4 flags or a couple of camo's but the upside is that when it's free xp, or coal it's much higher. Plus the amount of SC's provides much better loot that offsets the smaller drops throughout the year. I have had 5 ships drops in SC's as well, granted that may not be all that impressive with my game count.

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On 11/5/2020 at 12:35 AM, Call_of_the_Mastodon said:
After reading on the forums that the 1200 coal container had gotten quite rare...

Thanks for the effort to record it. 

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3 hours ago, Sweetsie said:

Use try your luck, I get 900 whenever I get coal,

That's less than the average Coal of only two Resource containers.  (~520 each (not counting Clan bonus)).  So if you get Coal every other TYL Fail you're still behind.

No, this analysis has been done.  Counting all those extra SCs, choosing TYLs leaves you well behind the loot you would gain from Credits, Signals, and Resources.  It's not a smart choice.

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Updated my numbers, moving the overall average as I predicted.  See above.

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7 hours ago, kiwi1960 said:

You select RESOURCES and get your container..... ONLY..... its a MEGA container.....

I got one of those nasty MEGA containers a few weeks ago.  It was terrible!  15,000 Coal.  I was so POd that I didn't get any Juliet Charlie signals.

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23 minutes ago, iDuckman said:

I got one of those nasty MEGA containers a few weeks ago.  It was terrible!  15,000 Coal.  I was so POd that I didn't get any Juliet Charlie signals.

God i wish. Ive only ever gotten Camo from them..I think one gave me a low tier ship, but its been so long i cant recall.

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4 minutes ago, Princess_Daystar said:

God i wish. Ive only ever gotten Camo from them..I think one gave me a low tier ship, but its been so long i cant recall.

My Resource SCs (13 on my main account which I rarely even play now) have been very good to me:  3x 15,000 Coal, 3x 1000 Dubs, 2x 25 special signals, only 2x camo. 

I never have gotten a ship from a SC, though.

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