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Jitta77

Ranked Play...when does yolo zerg become a better option?

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So while watching a Yamato zerg up the middle and die horribly to a DD while claiming "wait for the crying to start"...  i started to wonder.

I've been bouncing between Rank 12-10 playing 4-5 games a night with a 50-55% win rate.  Would it just be mathematically easier to zerg through all the T10 ships and trying to get a good shot in before dying in the first 5 mins and then exit repeat 700 times?  I mean, why try hard and stay alive as a DD for 15-20 mins if I could just DD/BB zerg this and let math take over while still making rank 1?

Even possible? mathematically? 

Edited by Jitta77
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I'm not an expert in ranked by any means, but mathematically with a 55% win rate you will eventually rank out. 

The problem with your theory is that 55% win rate is based on you doing your best for the team. There will be some games your team is destined to win, and some you're destined to lose, and a small percent where YOU make the difference between a win and a loss. If you stop trying, your win rate may drop below 50% and you won't rank out. 

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So then in other words it will be easier for a 30%er to rank out doing that than a 55%er actually trying to rank out. 

 

When even games that are not serious in any way, shape, or form, encourage this sort of behaviour and we still wonder why the world is so messed up.

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6 hours ago, Jitta77 said:

So while watching a Yamato zerg up the middle and die horribly to a DD while claiming "wait for the crying to start"...  i started to wonder.

I've been bouncing between Rank 12-10 playing 4-5 games a night with a 50-55% win rate.  Would it just be mathematically easier to zerg through all the T10 ships and trying to get a good shot in before dying in the first 5 mins and then exit repeat 700 times?  I mean, why try hard and stay alive as a DD for 15-20 mins if I could just DD/BB zerg this and let math take over while still making rank 1?

Even possible? mathematically? 

As I have commented on before, several better players took the "Ranked assumption" (that RNG-esk odds means that either way, trying or not trying can get as far along) and found it almost valid !!!  They ended up, based on when they played (not is NA prime time), that you can simply yolo in, die and repeat and progress just as well as seriously trying.......   Several would go at least 18 games of 20 as wins and then, lose 2 and wait 15 minutes and try again with similar results......  8 out of 10 were the best results with 5 or 7 out of 10 being the average.   So, this UN-scientific test said that even I could get no less than 50% in not even trying but by being on "the better team" that I did not chose........

Now, I just play one or two matches to secure whatever level I enter in and call it a day.   It is not "value added" to waste time in such a terrible and flawed mode.

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I have several T10's you can go through ranked pretty fast by the game count.

However the idea that bouncing between 9 and 12 on my part with almost 100 played this season shows that I can play a thousand ranked in the next 10 days and maybe rank out. But its not worth it. So I just show up and try to make a kill if I can or two. Its essentially a good way to harvest xp and credits. Not that I need any xp because I have over 2 million unconverted already so far this year.

I did learn to farm credits in Destroyers with premium camo to cut costs in coop. There is like 7 of them on hand so you can go through them fast.

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2 hours ago, Squib_Surefire said:

So then in other words it will be easier for a 30%er to rank out doing that than a 55%er actually trying to rank out.

No. Even if OP did this for 700 battles, he wouldn't rank out using this strat. Despite the claims of some, ranked is not a numbers game and you can't "brute force" your way through.

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23 minutes ago, USS_Taylor_Swift said:

No. Even if OP did this for 700 battles, he wouldn't rank out using this strat. Despite the claims of some, ranked is not a numbers game and you can't "brute force" your way through.

Are you sure?

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8 hours ago, Jitta77 said:

So while watching a Yamato zerg up the middle and die horribly to a DD while claiming "wait for the crying to start"...  i started to wonder.

I've been bouncing between Rank 12-10 playing 4-5 games a night with a 50-55% win rate. 

That is impossible. A 55% WR in the 12-10 ......help I am trapped in the spin cycle of fail bubble would easily push a  upi into the 6-10 bracket permanently.

What is the spin cycle of fail? It's obtaining rank 12 and being trapped there by the irrevocable rank 12 but not able to string a couple wins together to advance. The obtaining of rank ten and not being able to advance and being recycled back to the 11-12 bracket. It is like the matrix, a meatgrinder of fail to ensure a steady supply of players that will literally force the best player, no matter how bad he may be forward.

 It's the Hotel California of Wows, you may check in but never leave.

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8 hours ago, Jitta77 said:

So while watching a Yamato zerg up the middle and die horribly to a DD while claiming "wait for the crying to start"...  i started to wonder.

I've been bouncing between Rank 12-10 playing 4-5 games a night with a 50-55% win rate.  Would it just be mathematically easier to zerg through all the T10 ships and trying to get a good shot in before dying in the first 5 mins and then exit repeat 700 times?  I mean, why try hard and stay alive as a DD for 15-20 mins if I could just DD/BB zerg this and let math take over while still making rank 1?

Even possible? mathematically? 

As to your question concerning yolo'ing.

If you can possibly take two ships out and only lose one... maybe it's a good trade. Late in the season there is a quality of skill lost in the 2-5 bracket. So it might have a better chance of working but still slim. The quality of play in the 11-infinity bracket vs 6-10, and 2-5 bracket is very noticeable.

The longer you stay alive, the higher your chances are of winning and or stealing a star.

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26 minutes ago, Sweetsie said:

As to your question concerning yolo'ing.

If you can possibly take two ships out and only lose one... maybe it's a good trade. Late in the season there is a quality of skill lost in the 2-5 bracket. So it might have a better chance of working but still slim. The quality of play in the 11-infinity bracket vs 6-10, and 2-5 bracket is very noticeable.

The longer you stay alive, the higher your chances are of winning and or stealing a star.

I don't see a big difference in the rank 11 to rank 10 bracket but I do recall the quantum leap of a difference the first few times i hit rank 5 in the past.

My question is just a matter of time.  If I can get 3 yolos in for every "try hard / full flags / stay alive" but take second to the thunderer loss, would the yolo zerg return better results over time?  Least to rank 6 maybe or even to rank 1? /shrug

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3 minutes ago, Jitta77 said:

I don't see a big difference in the rank 11 to rank 10 bracket but I do recall the quantum leap of a difference the first few times i hit rank 5 in the past.

My question is just a matter of time.  If I can get 3 yolos in for every "try hard / full flags / stay alive" but take second to the thunderer loss, would the yolo zerg return better results over time?  Least to rank 6 maybe or even to rank 1? /shrug

Simple, try it out. It depends on your RANKED win rate. If you maintain over 50, you WILL eventually rank out, though 51% will take much more time than say 60%. Even under 50%, it is theoretically possible if you save your star often enough, but if you are able to save your stars often enough, you are likely winning more than 50% of the matches. Good luck. Report with your findings.

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29 minutes ago, Jitta77 said:

I don't see a big difference in the rank 11 to rank 10 bracket but I do recall the quantum leap of a difference the first few times i hit rank 5 in the past.

My question is just a matter of time.  If I can get 3 yolos in for every "try hard / full flags / stay alive" but take second to the thunderer loss, would the yolo zerg return better results over time?  Least to rank 6 maybe or even to rank 1? /shrug

Fair point. late in the season the 6-10 bracket is the 11 bracket. Most have moved on and it is now filled with players of less skill.

As for the yoloing  with more games played vs. trying hard in each game... you make an interesting point or pose an interesting question. I don't know if getting three games vs one might not be a better option. You have a 50% chance of getting a better team anyway even if you go out first.

The yoloing option would definitely be more fun.

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2 hours ago, USS_Taylor_Swift said:

No. Even if OP did this for 700 battles, he wouldn't rank out using this strat. Despite the claims of some, ranked is not a numbers game and you can't "brute force" your way through.

 

1 hour ago, Jitta77 said:

Are you sure?

If a yolo ship can deal enough damage or allow their team to do an equivalent amount of damage to the enemy to offset any damage taken, then it is technically possible to rank out using this strategy.  The strategy, like any, is based on providing 50% or better contribution to your team.  At 50% or less contribution, you would stay stagnant at a rank.  At greater than 50% contribution you would eventually rank out.  In the event that you managed to yolo forward and top the team, it would contribute an even greater amount to the ability to rank out because of the stars saved from time to time, from being on a team of lesser players.  Is it a strategy I would use?  No.  Could it work?  Possibly.

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2 hours ago, USS_Taylor_Swift said:

yes

My current stats say i'm an average 57% rate for ranked so if I play 100 games which will take about 30 hours i'll net (on average) 14 stars so could make it to rank 6-7 ish.

If zerg nets 51% win rate then yeah, it would hurt with 2 stars earned but would take 8.3 hours.

If zerg nets 54% win rate "because" it would earn about 8 stars every 8.3 hours and would put me at rank 8. In 25 hours, I would be +24 stars.

Frankly, I am starting to wonder if zerg is any worse than my current game play so if i speed up bad game play the average might work out "playing" 300% more games especially if 1 ship dying early doesn't swing the average win rate that much.

I guess what i'm saying is...ranked is a grind. 

Edited by Jitta77

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On 10/5/2020 at 1:46 AM, Jitta77 said:

I could just DD/BB zerg this and let math take over while still making rank 1?

Even possible? mathematically? 

 

On 10/5/2020 at 9:51 AM, USS_Taylor_Swift said:

No. Even if OP did this for 700 battles, he wouldn't rank out using this strat. Despite the claims of some, ranked is not a numbers game and you can't "brute force" your way through.

^^^^^^^^^

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On 10/5/2020 at 10:14 PM, Jitta77 said:

Are you sure?

The numbers were posted to another thread. 

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1 hour ago, Taichunger said:

The numbers were posted to another thread. 

I recall a similar thread that showed a win rate of 51% would rank out in 700ish games based on simulation.  You thinking of the same?

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I've found ranked play to be absolutely unplayable after the first week. There are too many people who are terrible at the game playing ranked, especially on the weekend, and matchmaking tends to put them all on one team. It's either a steamroll or getting steamrolled. I made it to rank 7 with 2 stars and now I'm almost back to 12. I'm not (nor do I plan on being) in a clan. I need to play ranked to get the steel. 

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3 minutes ago, jondoom said:

I've found ranked play to be absolutely unplayable after the first week. There are too many people who are terrible at the game playing ranked, especially on the weekend, and matchmaking tends to put them all on one team. It's either a steamroll or getting steamrolled. I made it to rank 7 with 2 stars and now I'm almost back to 12. I'm not (nor do I plan on being) in a clan. I need to play ranked to get the steel. 

Same boat here.  I've ranked out a few times in the past. Have 2 pirate flags to show for it but these last few seasons have just been so worse.  I can't help but wonder about a way around it.

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On 10/6/2020 at 8:11 PM, Jitta77 said:

My current stats say i'm an average 57% rate for ranked so if I play 100 games which will take about 30 hours i'll net (on average) 14 stars so could make it to rank 6-7 ish.

If zerg nets 51% win rate then yeah, it would hurt with 2 stars earned but would take 8.3 hours.

If zerg nets 54% win rate "because" it would earn about 8 stars every 8.3 hours and would put me at rank 8. In 25 hours, I would be +24 stars.

Frankly, I am starting to wonder if zerg is any worse than my current game play so if i speed up bad game play the average might work out "playing" 300% more games especially if 1 ship dying early doesn't swing the average win rate that much.

I guess what i'm saying is...ranked is a grind. 

If you're play ar 57% with your usual play, then that is not bad at all and you should continue with it. You shouldn't expect a "zerg rush" strat to result in a positive winrate.

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