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rose367

random bundles

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just a question 
has anyone ever got a prem ship from random bundles without buying all of them ?
ive asked a few people and no one has ever got them...
just wondering if its set so the prem ship pops up as one of the final 3 or 4 bundles ??? 
was asking cos i thought id give it a go (USA battleships early access) 0.9.9 but i dont want to spend 200 odd dollars (65000 doubloons) when i can spend half that in shop .
hope this doesn't sound like im whingeing but i am actualy curious if someone has got one ???

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You will see a few people today say they got the ship in the first  few but don't fall for it. 

They will,  but that is just to get the fever going.

Classic Vegas style psychology.

Why do you think they have all the bells , sirens and flashing light go off on a win.. ANY win.

Keeps people dumping their cash fast as they can thinking they will be next.

Have you SEEN Vegas?   It Works!

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9 minutes ago, rose367 said:

was asking cos i thought id give it a go (USA battleships early access) 0.9.9 but i dont want to spend 200 odd dollars (65000 doubloons) when i can spend half that in shop .

Don't do it unless the Minnesota is the first one up and you decide that jumping straight to that Tier 9 tech-tree ship is worth 1000 doubloons.

There are people who decide that the bundle contents when it's just flags and/or camos are worth what WG charges. That's fine for them. I disagree. 

At the end of this all, if I'm just a few tokens short of something that really matters (e.g. Kansas permacamo), I'll consider chucking some money at it. Otherwise no; the dubs can be used more effectively elsewhere.

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2 minutes ago, rose367 said:

just a question 
has anyone ever got a prem ship from random bundles without buying all of them ?
ive asked a few people and no one has ever got them...
just wondering if its set so the prem ship pops up as one of the final 3 or 4 bundles ??? 
was asking cos i thought id give it a go (USA battleships early access) 0.9.9 but i dont want to spend 200 odd dollars (65000 doubloons) when i can spend half that in shop .
hope this doesn't sound like im whingeing but i am actualy curious if someone has got one ???

1. You have a 1/65 (1.5%) chance of pulling the Minnesota from your first bundle and since most players don't go beyond the first bundle you'd have to conduct a broad survey to determine if the odds are weighted beyond that already minuscule chance. FWIW with the Soviet cruisers split I got a 150 token stack for my first bundle so it does happen. 

2. If you're thinking of going in on this event especially it pays to be patient and earn all the grindable tokens you can before supplementing with bundles since the break points for this event are VERY bad. The math being that you'll have to spend $88 (or $92 if you get the Minnesota drop) in bundles if you want the Florida and get all the 'guaranteed' grind tokens, $72 ($76) if the week 2/3 token missions get you to the KS's permaflage and $56 ($62) if somehow the grindable tokens get you to the 7k bundle. The T9 perma is $68 beyond the FL and the T10 is $80 beyond the T9 BTW. For reference, the T9 / T10 vanilla permas are $16/$20 in dubs respectively and the most expensive cosmetic permaflages up to now, the Space and Halloween T10's, are $32 worth of dubs.

 

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It's actually rare, because you either see a ship immediately on first bundle (rarest) or the very next bundle, but also very rarely seen.

In most cases, you end up halfway deep and then you get maybe 1 ship. Since the possibility is listed, you kind of know the probability by number of bundles divided by number of ships.

However, having said that, marketing drives the minimum average purchase per player participant. The four Ps.

If WG marketing needs a set minimum net sales, then you divide that number by the number of players that would actually buy bundles.

For this math example:

25000 players.

WG net sales goal: 250,000.00 USD.

250000/25000= 10.00 USD per player.

However, this example is speculative since there may be more than 25k players and the net sales goal is actually higher.

But that is how you would calculate the minimum amount a player needs to spend before a bundle pays out big.

Then there is the variables involved in the player that hits big and they buy additional bundles.

I call that the lucky bastard paradox. Because the player thought they were lucky but digs a hole in the bundles and has spent far more for the second ship award. 

This plays well with marketing, however, marketing should be savy enough to make the bundles have some significant perceived value.

The bundles technically do have value, but they don't if you want a ship.

If you are lucky to get it in roughly two bundles, stop right there.

But if you decide that the other stuff is worthwhile, then that is up to you.

But just don't exceed your own budget for the game that event. Because had the event not been there, then you should stick to what you originally budgeted for.

If anything, get what you normally get half of your regular budget and use rest on the event if you think you want to try it.

Just don't exceed your budget.

Bear in mind that these are just early access and these ships will be available later anyway. So add that fact in your decision process.

 

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I just logged into the Armory through the backdoor and note that they seem to have given me 12,000 American tokens.

With another 12,000 buried somewhere in the directives, that puts at least the Kansas permacamo easily within my reach. The rest not so much.

Did anyone else get this, or am I part of that control group which won't be getting Daily Supply? Won't know until I update my client after work today.

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4 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

I just logged into the Armory through the backdoor and note that they seem to have given me 12,000 American tokens.

With another 12,000 buried somewhere in the directives, that puts at least the Kansas permacamo easily within my reach. The rest not so much.

Did anyone else get this, or am I part of that control group which won't be getting Daily Supply? Won't know until I update my client after work today.

 

I got the 12,000 and the daily supply.

 

I'm wondering if WG perhaps panicked over the furore in the forums about the obscene cost of having to buy sufficient tokens to reach the T9, and decided to give everyone a starter bundle? It seems unusually generous, given that the 12k tokens can now be spent on flags & cammos, making them free.

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12 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

I just logged into the Armory through the backdoor and note that they seem to have given me 12,000 American tokens.

With another 12,000 buried somewhere in the directives, that puts at least the Kansas permacamo easily within my reach. The rest not so much.

Did anyone else get this, or am I part of that control group which won't be getting Daily Supply? Won't know until I update my client after work today.

I didn't even get a lump of coal.

7091e7f2-Joel-the-Lump-of-Coal.jpg

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10 minutes ago, Turbogerbil said:

 

I got the 12,000 and the daily supply.

 

I'm wondering if WG perhaps panicked over the furore in the forums about the obscene cost of having to buy sufficient tokens to reach the T9, and decided to give everyone a starter bundle? It seems unusually generous, given that the 12k tokens can now be spent on flags & cammos, making them free.

 

Edit:

OK, this is strange. I've just logged into 9.9 for the second time, and those 12,000 tokens have vanished.

 

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10 minutes ago, Turbogerbil said:

 

Edit:

OK, this is strange. I've just logged into 9.9 for the second time, and those 12,000 tokens have vanished.

 

It's being discussed elsewhere; apparently it's a bug.

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54 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

It's being discussed elsewhere; apparently it's a bug.

That is one huge bug.

*WG finds a roach in server room the size of a pony smoking a cigarette 🚬.

Roachski: "What?"

WG: "What did you do!"

Roachski: "I had a party in here, a few crickets, a salamander, and a very emo snake called Andrei. It was worth it."

Roachski: "I'm not cleaning that up."

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5 hours ago, lloyd1701 said:

1. You have a 1/65 (1.5%) chance of pulling the Minnesota from your first bundle and since most players don't go beyond the first bundle you'd have to conduct a broad survey to determine if the odds are weighted beyond that already minuscule chance. FWIW with the Soviet cruisers split I got a 150 token stack for my first bundle so it does happen. 

2. If you're thinking of going in on this event especially it pays to be patient and earn all the grindable tokens you can before supplementing with bundles since the break points for this event are VERY bad. The math being that you'll have to spend $88 (or $92 if you get the Minnesota drop) in bundles if you want the Florida and get all the 'guaranteed' grind tokens, $72 ($76) if the week 2/3 token missions get you to the KS's permaflage and $56 ($62) if somehow the grindable tokens get you to the 7k bundle. The T9 perma is $68 beyond the FL and the T10 is $80 beyond the T9 BTW. For reference, the T9 / T10 vanilla permas are $16/$20 in dubs respectively and the most expensive cosmetic permaflages up to now, the Space and Halloween T10's, are $32 worth of dubs.

 

I was just figuring all this out myself and you saved me the trouble.

WG is just crazy.   There is nothing reasonable about anything in this event.  1000 doubloons is like $4-$5 depending how many you buy at a time.  Florida is a Tier 7 BB.   That would normally sell in the premium shop for around 11,000 doubloons.    However, the way WG has it set up, you have to work your rear off grinding out the directives just for the honor of paying TWICE that amount in Doubloons to get the Florida are you kidding me.

I mean I understand that your getting some camos and a few flags from the bundles but you aren't even talking about a decent number of flags.  I mean take the Santa's gifts.  The middle sized one cost about $5 and worst case scenario you would get 25 special signals per crate and there was also a GOOD chance of getting a premium ship some of them worth up to 12,000 Doubloons as so.  You want me to pay 1000 doubloons for a bundle, then you need to be including about a 15-20% chance to get a good premium ship out of each bundle.  5-10 flag and a couple special signals aren't going to get me to open up my wallet.

The way WG keeps getting greedier and greedier makes me wonder if they will keep Santa's crates a good value or if they will nerf the hell out of drop rates so all you get is a bunch of cheap camos while they laugh themselves to the bank.

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I bought the first bundle for sh and giggles, and much to my surprise Minnesota was the second bundle.  I'm not terribly interested in high tier US standards because of the awful speed, but I had the dubs laying around so I went ahead and bought it.  I figure its worth sparing myself the grind later. 

So it's super rare, but it can happen.  I did not see any freebie tokens on login, so assuming that is a bug as has been reported.

bundles.jpg

Edited by Uncle_Lou
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37 minutes ago, Midnitewolf said:

The way WG keeps getting greedier and greedier makes me wonder if they will keep Santa's crates a good value or if they will nerf the hell out of drop rates so all you get is a bunch of cheap camos while they laugh themselves to the bank.

I honestly think they don't want people to spend their money on this event considering the previous events this year have been honestly quite 'profitable' if you were willing to spend $ or even not.

Didn't spend a dime on the Pan Ikea release but since I had 2 mil FXP saved I got Smaland and so crate luck meant I also got the Halland permaflage, so 5k dubs in value and then Jerzy and most of the campaign finished.

The 150 token stack got me to spend dubs on the PB/Ock so for $100 I got 2xT8 premiums, the T8-10 permas for the split (something back for WG screwing over Moskva permaflage owners :Smile-angry:), around 350k ship xp and credits worth and the other rewards.

Bought the 8k starter pack for Odin Dockyard and so that's another T8 + 10k coal + 1500 steel for 8k dubs

Bought the 3k starter pack for Anchorage so I'll get all those rewards.

Didn't spend on KM CV's, but those who did seemed to be relatively happier with what they pulled compared to other EA events...

And now we have this event where you can get the Kansas guaranteed if you grind the tough but fair directives that synergize with the Dockyard's... but the Florida is a T7 at literally over T9 pricing outside of the T2/3 missions being stupidly generous or the 12k tokens some peeps got is something everyone should get... and the T10 permaflage is in the same ballpark as PR disaster pricing... and there's NO RNG on the token side so no one's gonna be hoping for some 15k token trove or anything.

My best conclusion to this evidence is that WG wants people to spend their money on Halloween / BFriday / Xmas.

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2 hours ago, dimzzy said:

It's amazing how much stuff WG gives away for free. Just play the game!

All games FTP give away stuff for free and most of them give much more than WG does.

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2 hours ago, dimzzy said:

It's amazing how much stuff WG gives away for free. Just play the game!

They give away for dollars what it costs them less than cents to produce.  Acting like they are magnanimous for "giving stuff for free" is being a bit generous.

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22 minutes ago, Croda said:

They give away for dollars what it costs them less than cents to produce.  Acting like they are magnanimous for "giving stuff for free" is being a bit generous.

Oh, I didn't know that you are such an expert in finances and intricately know all the details of WG's operations.

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2 minutes ago, dimzzy said:

Oh, I didn't know that you are such an expert in finances and intricately know all the details of WG's operations.

oh no?  Sorry.  Well now you know.

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2 minutes ago, Croda said:

oh no?  Sorry.  Well now you know.

True, I made a note.

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Just for fun, I checked my Armory from work, and shortly after seeing what was there, I spilled my tea all over my keyboard and spent the last half hour cleaning it, taking it outside to dry, and hooking up a replacement...very first bundle:

 

Minnesota.jpg

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