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JonTheCadet

Independence day armoury bundles - why you SHOULDN'T buy them V2

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Disclaimer: this is written under confusion, not rage. Again, this does not represent anyone's opinion but ME.

 

The last thread was removed at roughly 80 replies due to the thread offtracking into general WG complaints. 

So I was told links and 'inflammatory' content cannot be posted on here. No worries, I have already done some calculation based on my experience.

I shall use similar/same values as the last thread. 11 successes out of 131 trials.

 

First test: odds of getting a ship is dynamic and not equal to odds of getting flags.

X ~ HyGeo (131, 11, 13)

Assuming null hypothesis is true, 

H-nought: Probability of getting a ship is 11/131; H-one: Probability of getting a ship is less than 11/131. 

Testing at 5% siginficance level,

The(my) probability of getting no ships out of 13 trials is 30%, which is more than 5%. Critical value takes 31 trials and no ships.

Therefore, null hypothesis is accepted, odds of getting a ship may be the same as the odds of getting flags. 

 

Second test: one needs to pay more than he needs to for getting a ship. 

This test assumes both Georgia and Alaska costing 19500 doubloons. For me, converted currency costs about 19646 doubloons but taken to 3 significant figures. 

X ~ N (11660, 1652265) 

Assuming null hypothesis is true

H-nought: Mean price for getting a ship is 11660; H-one: Mean price for getting a ship is higher than 11660.

Testing at 5% significance level, 

The(my) price I've paid and still haven't gotten a ship is at 0.0000000397% (you count the zeros, 3.97*10^-10). Critical value is at 13714 doubloons for a ship. 

Therefore, null hypothesis is rejected, one does need to pay more for a ship than one needs to. 

As null hypothesis is rejected, Type I error arises, and probability of Type I error is 0.41%. 

 

Final comments requires constructive ideas so this doesn't seem to 'unfriendly'. Here's my suggestion: 

- Remove flags and make the 2021 Independence day bundle only ships with 1500 doubloons. 

- Make unicorn ships available for purchase with this doubloon bundle i.e. Ohio and Enterprise. 

of which I expect both of them to be perfectly doable. Perfectly

 

And at last, I would like to apologise for the last thread. I am as apologetic as Sub_Octavian was over the P2R fiasco. 

 

Best regards,

JonTheCadet 

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1 minute ago, JonTheCadet said:

-snip

 

Ohio...in a bundle. Hahahahaha

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Basically if you don't see a ship in the first bundle only buy if you need the flags & camouflages and then only if you can afford to spend the money.

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15 minutes ago, Raven_of_Norway said:

Too much time on your hands

:Smile_hiding:

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first bundle:atlanta$1500 dubloons=fair deal.i accepted.

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First Bundle- Sims. Cost 1500 dub.

Already have Sims. Refund 3000 dub.

Total: 1 Port Slot, 1 3pt Captain, 1500 dubs. Winning.

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I'm of the opinion that you should only buy these bundles if you get a first pull ship or you're completely okay with all the contents of the non ship bundles and assume 120-131 are the ships.

For example, I got wyvern flags revealed with my first bundle, have more than enough of those so hard pass.

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1 hour ago, BrushWolf said:

Basically if you don't see a ship in the first bundle only buy if you need the flags & camouflages and then only if you can afford to spend the money.

^^This^^

If you don't see something you need and think is worth the 1500, leave it.

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I probably will buy a ship if it is being presented as the first bundle, unfortunately that's just some flags so nope, I kept my wallet shut

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