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Winter_Man

What rewards to expect from the soviet tokens?

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I spent some time yesterday trying to estimate what I can unlock by finishing all the new directives. Here's my math:

Containers Available:
Source Number of containers
Logging on 6
Directive 1 9
Directive 2 13
Directive 3 15
Directive 4 17
Twitch 7

Total = 67 containers

Note: You can get 4 additional containers if you did the 0.9.4 Public Test mission

 

Estimated Tokens per Container:

Average = (5*50 + 10*25 + 15*15 + 25*10 + 150*4 + 700*1) / (50 + 25 + 15 + 10 + 4 + 1)

Average = 21.67 tokens/container

Note: This is an estimate based off the average tokens/container from the armory bundles. The soviet containers only offer 5, 10, 15, 25, or 300 tokens. If we assume that the 150 and 700 token options are replaced with the 300 token option, then the average tokens per crate would be 23.57 token/container, which is slightly higher than my previous estimate. In Public Test of 0.9.4 I personally averaged in the low 20's of tokens/container. Since the true token distribution is not public, we will have to wait and see the accuracy of this estimate.

Why is my average so much lower than 21 tokens/container???:

The 300 token container is quite rare. But if you get one, it'll provide a major boost to your average tokens/container. Since the 300 token container is so rare, you might never get one. If we pretend the 300 token container doesn't exist, here's what the average would be:

Average = (5*50 + 10*25 + 15*15 + 25*10) / (50 + 25 + 15 + 10)      Note: Assumes armory bundles distribution.

Average = 9.75 tokens/container  if you never get a 300 token container

Expected Tokens:

Tokens from crates = 67 * 21.67 = 1451 tokens

Tokens from Portal Articles = 20 tokens (https://forum.worldofwarships.com/topic/218062-4x-free-camos/)

Tokens from playing P. Bagration = 210 tokens/week * 4 weeks = 840 tokens ($45.20 to buy ship)

 

Tokens from playing Ochakov = 210 tokens/week * 4 weeks  = 840 tokens ($45.20 to buy ship)

Maximum Tokens from playing Mikoyan = 105 tokens/week  * 4 weeks = 420 tokens (300 tokens to buy ship)

Expected Tokens from playing Mikoyan = 300 tokens to buy ship / 21.67 tokens/container = 14 containers required on average. It takes ~2 weeks to get that many containers from directives. Therefore, Only expect 1-2 weeks of playing this ship. 105 tokens/week * 2 weeks = 210 tokens

Total free tokens = 1451 + 20 + 210= 1681 tokens

Note: It has been confirmed that these missions repeat each week. See this forum post for a discussion:

  Rewards you can Probably Buy:

With these 1681 free tokens you can expect to get the following:

  1. Mikoyan (300 tokens)
  2. Tallinn camo (400 tokens)
  3. Tallinn (500 tokens)

If you buy these 3, you will have 481 unused tokens. Please note that you are required to buy these bundles in order. You cannot save extra tokens to go straight for Riga, Petro Camo, etc.

Rewards that are Probably too Expensive:

The next rewards will probably be too expensive:

  1. Riga camo (500 tokens)
  2. Riga (550 tokens)
  3. Petro camo (600 tokens)

To get these final 3 rewards, you'd need an extra 1169 tokens.

What do I get if RNG hates me:

If you earn the minimum of 5 tokens/container for every container then you can expect to get 335 tokens. Plus the 20 tokens from portal articles puts you at 355 tokens. This is enough for the Mikoyan which can earn you an extra 105 tokens (assuming the Mikoyan mission is still available by the time you finish getting 60 containers). For a grand total of 425 tokens. The extra 105 tokens are not enough for the Tallinn.

TLDR: If you finish all the directives, only expect to get Mikoyan and Tallinn w/ camo. Your mileage will vary greatly if you never get a 300 token container.

Edited by Winter_Man
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Are you sure the high end containers are only 25 or 300? I got a few 25s from some gold I spent, but both of the higher end containers still show 0 unlocked.

Side note* WG making people unlock the camos first is stupid. Some of us have no interest in making our ships look like a kindergarten school project. 

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So far after 9 containers I'm averaging just under 9 tokens per container. 

If I get all the containers I can get (60) and that average holds, I'll get about 530 tokens.  

I'm not going to waste them on a crappy t5 premium that sounds like a mediocre version of the existing Russian tech-tree cruisers, I'll use them on premium time or something. 

 

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Really not like this "chain" unlock rewards WG has been doing recently.:Smile_sceptic: If they don't want us getting everything fine, make it so we can only get the last ship but cant get anything else or get the first and or 2nd ship but only get a few goodies. current system feels decetful.

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1 hour ago, Winter_Man said:

I spent some time yesterday trying to estimate what I can unlock by finishing all the new directives. Here's my math:

Containers Available:
Source Number of containers
Logging on 6
Directive 1 9
Directive 2 13
Directive 3 15
Directive 4 17
Twitch 7

Total = 67 containers

Note: You can get 4 additional containers if you did the 0.9.4 Public Test mission

 

Estimated Tokens per Container:

Average = (5*50 + 10*25 + 15*15 + 25*10 + 150*4 + 700*1) / (50 + 25 + 15 + 10 + 4 + 1)

Average = 21.67 tokens/container

Note: This is an estimate based off the average tokens/container from the armory bundles. The soviet containers only offer 5, 10, 15, 25, or 300 tokens. If we assume that the 150 and 700 token options are replaced with the 300 token option, then the average tokens per crate would be 23.57 token/container, which is slightly higher than my previous estimate. In Public Test of 0.9.4 I personally averaged in the low 20's of tokens/container. Since the true token distribution is not public, we will have to wait and see the accuracy of this estimate.

Expected Tokens:

Tokens from crates = 67 * 21.67 = 1451 tokens

Tokens from playing P. Bagration = 210 tokens ($45.20 to buy ship)

Tokens from playing Ochakov = 210 tokens ($45.20 to buy ship)

Tokens from playing Mikoyan = 105 tokens (300 tokens to buy ship)

Total free tokens = 1451 + 105 = 1556 tokens

Note: There is a chance these missions repeat each week, but it has not been confirmed yet. See this forum post for a discussion:

  Rewards you can Probably Buy:

With these free tokens you can expect to get the following:

  1. Mikoyan (300 tokens)
  2. Tallinn camo (400 tokens)
  3. Tallinn (500 tokens)

If you buy these 3, you will have 356 unused tokens.

Rewards that are Probably too Expensive:

The next rewards will probably be too expensive:

  1. Riga camo (500 tokens)
  2. Riga (550 tokens)
  3. Petro camo (600 tokens)

To get these final 3 rewards, you'd need an extra 1294 tokens.

What do I get if RNG hates me:

If you earn the minimum of 5 tokens/container for every container then you can expect to get 335 tokens. This is enough for the Mikoyan which can earn you an extra 105 tokens (assuming the Mikoyan mission is still available by the time you finish getting 60 containers). For a grand total of 405 tokens. The extra 105 tokens are not enough for the Tallinn.

TLDR: If you finish all the directives, only expect to get Mikoyan and Tallinn w/ camo.

 

The only issue I see is you are factoring in a 20 token per container average, and so far, it seems like the average for most people is around 10 or so. :(

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1 hour ago, Tigermaus said:

Are you sure the high end containers are only 25 or 300? I got a few 25s from some gold I spent, but both of the higher end containers still show 0 unlocked.

Side note* WG making people unlock the camos first is stupid. Some of us have no interest in making our ships look like a kindergarten school project. 

WG has a habit of making "kindergarten camos". I'm thankful I can turn off those kiddie camos.

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This thread makes a wrong assumption on the odds of pulling more than 5 tokens per container. We can clearly see that it is heavily biased toward pulling 5 tokens. The average is not remotely 21 tokens per container. It is unlikely a free player will get enough to get more than Mikoyan.

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45 minutes ago, Tigermaus said:

The only issue I see is you are factoring in a 20 token per container average, and so far, it seems like the average for most people is around 10 or so. :(

My average so far is just under 9 per crate, as noted. 

There's no way most of us are going to get to the actual meat of this event. 

 

 

Edited by KilljoyCutter

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2 minutes ago, KilljoyCutter said:

My average so far is just under 9 per crate, as noted. 

There's no way most of us are going to get to the actual meat of this event. 

 

 

Ain't that the truth.

A 20 average is wayyyyyyyy out of bounds in my experience and what I'm seeing others getting. 

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We'll need people to earn more containers and report their winnings to know for certain. If the crates are similar to the armory bundles, these are the probabilities of getting various tokens per crate.

You can see that with low numbers of crates, it is normal to have a very low average per container. With more crates, you will possibly get a 300 token crate, which greatly skews the average. If we excluded the 300 token crate, the average would be 9.75 token/container which agrees with what people here are reporting. Your average will be low unless you get a 300 token container which will greatly skew your average.

 

Estimated Probabilities of Tokens/Container
Tokens # of Containers1 Chance
5 50 48%
10 25 24%
15 15 14%
25 10 10%
300 5 5%

1: Based on armory bundles. Assumes 150 and 700 token crates are replaced with 300 token crates.

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2 hours ago, Tigermaus said:

Are you sure the high end containers are only 25 or 300? I got a few 25s from some gold I spent, but both of the higher end containers still show 0 unlocked.

Side note* WG making people unlock the camos first is stupid. Some of us have no interest in making our ships look like a kindergarten school project. 

Well... what makes you think they want you to have a ship earlier?

It's setup so that a majority won't get it, but if you REALLY want it then you'll buy containers to get them. It's just a cash grab.

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Just now, dashtardly said:

Well... what makes you think they want you to have a ship earlier?

It's setup so that a majority won't get it, but if you REALLY want it then you'll buy containers to get them. It's just a cash grab.

Oh I totally agree. I just think the way they go about it is lame. 

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2 hours ago, Tigermaus said:

Are you sure the high end containers are only 25 or 300? I got a few 25s from some gold I spent, but both of the higher end containers still show 0 unlocked.

Side note* WG making people unlock the camos first is stupid. Some of us have no interest in making our ships look like a kindergarten school project. 

Yes. WG confirmed the container token options of 5, 10, 15, 25, and 300. Here's a screenshot:

image.thumb.png.2a97942690a7a098fefa9bad5a044700.png

The armory bundles can give 5, 10, 15, 25, 150, or 700 tokens.

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Just now, Winter_Man said:

Yes. WG confirmed the container token options of 5, 10, 15, 25, and 300. Here's a screenshot:

image.thumb.png.2a97942690a7a098fefa9bad5a044700.png

The armory bundles can give 5, 10, 15, 25, 150, or 700 tokens.

Ahh ok, I was referring to the Armory bundles. :)

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9 minutes ago, Winter_Man said:

Yes. WG confirmed the container token options of 5, 10, 15, 25, and 300. Here's a screenshot:

image.thumb.png.2a97942690a7a098fefa9bad5a044700.png

The armory bundles can give 5, 10, 15, 25, 150, or 700 tokens.

Yes, and the armory bundle shows that it's a 1/100 chance for 700 tokens and I think 4-5% for the 150.

You can bet that the 300 tokens aren't going to be a much higher drop rate than the 700s.

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4 hours ago, KilljoyCutter said:

So far after 9 containers I'm averaging just under 9 tokens per container. 

If I get all the containers I can get (60) and that average holds, I'll get about 530 tokens.  

I'm not going to waste them on a crappy t5 premium that sounds like a mediocre version of the existing Russian tech-tree cruisers, I'll use them on premium time or something. 

 

Got lucky tonight and hit a 300 token container. I bought the Mikoyan and played it a few times. I like it. Fun boat that seems to turn well and has the Russian laser beam guns. At tier 5 the 180mm guns are boss. She is a long range sniper though. Get hit and you are dead. But you got to love those guns.

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My average from the 9 directive 1 crates is 6.1.  Seven 5s and two 10s.

I bought two of the doubloon bundles and hit a 150 so that helps my RNG.

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I think the token distribution assumptions are so off-base as to render this estimate actually harmful. Although I suppose nothing stops half the forum population from expecting to get free Tier VIII+ unlocks every early-access update despite that basically never happening.

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The return on investment when gambling always includes all options and is always factored over the maximum number of games so that all percentages reach their stated values.  That means the 300 token bundle is included in the percentage to reach the 21 token average, although most players will never get it.  This is the same thing as most casual slot machine gamblers that will never get a jackpot.  Without the jackpot, the real average for most players is way below the overall average for all players.

Most players won't average 21 tokens, because a few will average much more than that.

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10 minutes ago, Murcc said:

The return on investment when gambling always includes all options and is always factored over the maximum number of games so that all percentages reach their stated values.  That means the 300 token bundle is included in the percentage to reach the 21 token average, although most players will never get it.  This is the same thing as most casual slot machine gamblers that will never get a jackpot.  Without the jackpot, the real average for most players is way below the overall average for all players.

Most players won't average 21 tokens, because a few will average much more than that.

Absolutely correct! The 300 token container is there to skew the average up so that some lucky players can actually finish the grind.

I made a previous post in this thread that shows the average is probably closer to 9.75 tokens/container if you can't get the 300 token container.

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Your numbers are wildly inflated

I have received 11+ containers, all but 1 were 5's...

Your numbers are way, way too optimistic

regards

JM

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Well, at least we are getting superior ships from the World's finest navy. The Soviet Navy crushed the German and Japanese Navies. Never forget that.

Edited by Andreas_Jager
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3 hours ago, SerahKhan said:

I have received 11+ containers, all but 1 were 5's...

Your numbers are way, way too optimistic

I just opened 10 crates: nine crates had 5 tokens and one.... wait for it.... 10 tokens.  Estimates of token haul: IMHO, anything above 7 per crate - on average - is over estimated. 

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1 hour ago, sdj_2016 said:

I just opened 10 crates: nine crates had 5 tokens and one.... wait for it.... 10 tokens.  Estimates of token haul: IMHO, anything above 7 per crate - on average - is over estimated. 

exactly

22 my !@#.... 

 

Im at 11 crates, total 70....

No friggin way...

Regards

JM

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What to expect depends almost solely on your RNG with 300 crates and when you get Mikoyan with the 105 tokens per week (up to 420) mission. Break points are 300, 700, 1200, 1700, 2250 and 2850. 

You can get 25 tokens free as described here so the least amount of tokens you can get if you got all the crates earnable in game, did 1 week of missions and this is 430 and the most you can get with no 300 crates is 1945.

Spoiler

 

OR put another way you need to average between 40-46 tokens / crate to get the the Petro's permaflage depending on when you get the Mikoyan.

31-36 for Riga

21-27 for Riga's perma

13-18 for Tallinn and finally

5 (i.e. guaranteed) - 9.5 for Tallinn's perma

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