Jump to content
You need to play a total of 20 battles to post in this section.
HannibalCane

There is something funny going on.

106 comments in this topic

Recommended Posts

235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles

I started playing ranked on Thursday. Got 1 win away from rank 1. Then started losing. On Friday I lost 10 games in a row. Saturday 10 losses in a row again, then a tie, then another loss.I am right around 50% win rate in randoms. The odds of a 50% player losing this many games in a row is less than 1%. Less than 1%. (0.005859375 to be exact). I even hit top three in a number of them. Did not matter, still lost.

This is not a valid distribution. There is something else going on. I am convinced of it. Is anyone else seeing this? What could be causing it? I didn't suddenly turn into a terrible player, unable to win even 5% of my matches when I magically hit rank 2 and then turn into a terrible player. Even a terrible player would have won at least a couple of games. Hell even an AFK player would have.

This kind of thing makes me hate the game and not want to play. It's like the odds are being intentionally stacked against me, no matter how well I play or what ship I take into the sprint.

 

Edited by KristopherKringle
  • Cool 3
  • Funny 1
  • Boring 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8,413
[GGWP]
Members
7,582 posts
17,928 battles
5 minutes ago, KristopherKringle said:

I started playing ranked on Thursday. Got 1 win away from rank 1. Then started losing. On Friday I lost 10 games in a row. Saturday 10 losses in a row again, then a tie, then another loss.I am right around 50% win rate in randoms. The odds of a 50% player losing this many games in a row is less than 1%. Less than 1%. (0.005859375 to be exact). I even hit top three in a number of them. Did not matter, still lost.

This is not a valid distribution. There is something else going on. I am convinced of it. Is anyone else seeing this? What could be causing it? I didn't suddenly turn into a terrible player, unable to win even 5% of my matches when I magically hit rank 2 and then turn into a terrible player. Even a terrible player would have won at least a couple of games. Hell even an AFK player would have.

This kind of thing makes me hate the game and not want to play. It's like the odds are being intentionally stacked against me, no matter how well I play or what ship I take into the sprint.

 

Funny thing is that no one seems to think something is funny going on when they win 10 in a row.

  • Cool 7
  • Funny 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
111
[WOLF4]
Members
395 posts
17,296 battles

team of crappy players against a better team 10 times in a row. Whats new.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
10 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

Funny thing is that no one seems to think something is funny going on when they win 10 in a row.

Thing is. I can't remember that last time I won 10 in a row. I remember a couple 8 in a row winning streaks. Never won 20 in a row, have you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
4 minutes ago, Tim__2016 said:

team of crappy players against a better team 10 times in a row. Whats new.

This is math, not conjecture. If the matchmaker is impartial, than the odds of getting 20 great teams against 20 terrible losing teams in  row  is the same 0.005859375.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,660 posts
23 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

Funny thing is that no one seems to think something is funny going on when they win 10 in a row.

It is human nature to internalize success and externalize failure.

  • Cool 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,660 posts
29 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

Funny thing is that no one seems to think something is funny going on when they win 10 in a row.

And for the record this is me complaing about MM making me win too much...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
181
[NG-NL]
Members
421 posts
11,014 battles
26 minutes ago, KristopherKringle said:

I lost 10 games in a row. Saturday 10 losses in a row again, then a tie, then another loss.I am right around 50% win rate in randoms. The odds of a 50% player losing this many games in a row is less than 1%. Less than 1%. (0.005859375 to be exact).

This is not a valid distribution. There is something else going on. I am convinced of it.

This kind of thing makes me hate the game and not want to play. It's like the odds are being intentionally stacked against me, no matter how well I play or what ship I take into the sprint.

You picked about 20 games out of many thousands.
You then declare that the results are absurdly skewed. Of course they are: you cherry-picked them.
You then get angry and want to stop playing. That's fine. Spend your leisure time doing things that make you happy, not angry.

4 minutes ago, KristopherKringle said:

This is math, not conjecture. If the matchmaker is impartial, than the odds of getting 20 great teams against 20 terrible losing teams in  row  is the same 0.005859375.

It's not valid enough to even be conjecture, and the only "math" involved is the terms you misuse to support your initial claim.
At best, you fail to grasp fundamental concepts of statistics and logic and are taking this game (which doesn't care about you nearly as much as you seem to think) personally. Sounds like you'd be happier playing a different game.
At worst, you are being disingenuous and should go away.

  • Boring 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,551
[WKY04]
Members
4,074 posts
25,808 battles
40 minutes ago, KristopherKringle said:

I started playing ranked on Thursday. Got 1 win away from rank 1. Then started losing. On Friday I lost 10 games in a row. Saturday 10 losses in a row again, then a tie, then another loss.I am right around 50% win rate in randoms. The odds of a 50% player losing this many games in a row is less than 1%. Less than 1%. (0.005859375 to be exact). I even hit top three in a number of them. Did not matter, still lost.

This is not a valid distribution. There is something else going on. I am convinced of it. Is anyone else seeing this? What could be causing it? I didn't suddenly turn into a terrible player, unable to win even 5% of my matches when I magically hit rank 2 and then turn into a terrible player. Even a terrible player would have won at least a couple of games. Hell even an AFK player would have.

This kind of thing makes me hate the game and not want to play. It's like the odds are being intentionally stacked against me, no matter how well I play or what ship I take into the sprint.

 

A multibillion dollar international corporation has it in for you personally, so watch out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,787
[SALVO]
Members
4,644 posts
21,747 battles

division with a good destroyer driver is the best let him do all the hard work you can just farm the glory 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
348 posts
5,767 battles
20 minutes ago, KristopherKringle said:

This is math, not conjecture. If the matchmaker is impartial, than the odds of getting 20 great teams against 20 terrible losing teams in  row  is the same 0.005859375.

No, more like hyperbole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35,744
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
25,791 posts
21,701 battles
35 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

Funny thing is that no one seems to think something is funny going on when they win 10 in a row.

Of course not. If I win, I did awesome and I deserve it. If I lose, it has to have an external cause and I'm being conspired against. That's just a fact.

Right?

  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,551
[WKY04]
Members
4,074 posts
25,808 battles

BTW, I have not had 20 wins in a row, but did have 19. Solo. 

My longest loss streak was 9, once in the past and yesterday. 

Edited by Pugilistic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
1 minute ago, imaginary_b said:

You picked about 20 games out of many thousands.
You then declare that the results are absurdly skewed. Of course they are: you cherry-picked them.
You then get angry and want to stop playing. That's fine. Spend your leisure time doing things that make you happy, not angry.

It's not valid enough to even be conjecture, and the only "math" involved is the terms you misuse to support your initial claim.
At best, you fail to grasp fundamental concepts of statistics and logic and are taking this game (which doesn't care about you nearly as much as you seem to think) personally. Sounds like you'd be happier playing a different game.
At worst, you are being disingenuous and should go away.

You obviously don't understand how odds work. Losing 20+ in a row is such a low chance it should not be happening and I'm sure I'm not the only one this has happened to. How does my statement no support my claim? I have never won more than 8-9 in a row. Never. I have lost 10+ in row at least a few times. I have never lost 20+ until now. I think there is something else that the matchmaker is doing.

At worst, you are just another white knight, who never thinks anything is wrong and defends Wargaming no matter what. Did you right the MM code? No, I didn't think so. So you have no idea, except what Wargaming tells you and like and fanboy, you believe anything they say.

  • Cool 1
  • Boring 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
5 minutes ago, Lert said:

Of course not. If I win, I did awesome and I deserve it. If I lose, it has to have an external cause and I'm being conspired against. That's just a fact.

Right?

That is not my point. Please re-read what I said and try to keep up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35,744
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
25,791 posts
21,701 battles
Just now, KristopherKringle said:

That is not my point. Please re-read what I said and try to keep up.

I did read it. All I see is exactly what it seems like. Blaming external factors.

  • Cool 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
9 minutes ago, Pugilistic said:

A multibillion dollar international corporation has it in for you personally, so watch out. 

Again, not what I'm saying. Seriously, are you obtuse. Do you know what obtuse means?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
Just now, Lert said:

I did read it. All I see is exactly what it seems like. Blaming external factors.

Then you are not very bright. I'm saying I don't believe the MM distribution is behaving correctly for a random distribution. There, I spelled it out for you again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35,744
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
25,791 posts
21,701 battles
Just now, KristopherKringle said:

Then you are not very bright. I'm saying I don't believe the MM distribution is behaving correctly for a random distribution. There, I spelled it out for you again.

I know exactly what you meant. And it doesn't change a single thing. Except that I'm not the one spewing personal insults.

But, keep on believing what you will.

sddTcgd.jpeg

What would a multi million dollar multinational company have to win by messing with your winchance and yours specifically? Explain that to me? Without personal insults, if you can manage?

  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Beta Testers
803 posts
6,709 battles
53 minutes ago, KristopherKringle said:

I started playing ranked on Thursday. Got 1 win away from rank 1. Then started losing. On Friday I lost 10 games in a row. Saturday 10 losses in a row again, then a tie, then another loss.I am right around 50% win rate in randoms. The odds of a 50% player losing this many games in a row is less than 1%. Less than 1%. (0.005859375 to be exact). I even hit top three in a number of them. Did not matter, still lost.

This is not a valid distribution. There is something else going on. I am convinced of it. Is anyone else seeing this? What could be causing it? I didn't suddenly turn into a terrible player, unable to win even 5% of my matches when I magically hit rank 2 and then turn into a terrible player. Even a terrible player would have won at least a couple of games. Hell even an AFK player would have.

This kind of thing makes me hate the game and not want to play. It's like the odds are being intentionally stacked against me, no matter how well I play or what ship I take into the sprint.

 

I don't know if its all in my head or not, but I find you have to listen to the streak god in this game.  When I know i'm in a positive streak I need to jump into as many games as I can until it ends.  In a negative streak you need to quit the game and come back later.  Playing on when you "feel" the god is angry is a good way to tank.

...but i readily accept i could be nuts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9,958
[PSP]
[PSP]
Members
15,258 posts
8 minutes ago, KristopherKringle said:

You obviously don't understand how odds work. Losing 20+ in a row is such a low chance it should not be happening

Even extremely low probability events occasionally occur, lust look how many people have actually won the Powerball lottery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
12 minutes ago, Lert said:

Of course not. If I win, I did awesome and I deserve it. If I lose, it has to have an external cause and I'm being conspired against. That's just a fact.

Right?

 

1 minute ago, Lert said:

I know exactly what you meant. And it doesn't change a single thing. Except that I'm not the one spewing personal insults.

But, keep on believing what you will.

sddTcgd.jpeg

What would a multi million dollar multinational company have to win by messing with your winchance and yours specifically? Explain that to me? Without personal insults, if you can manage?

OK. White Knight away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
235
[7-TH]
Members
240 posts
17,879 battles
Just now, Snargfargle said:

Even extremely low probability events occasionally occur, lust look how many people have actually won the Powerball lottery.

I am aware, but long losing streaks seem to happen more frequently than long winning streaks, which makes no sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
239
Beta Testers
768 posts
3,848 battles

I mean it's OBVIOUS the matchmaker plays games. It's SO obvious I had thought this was common knowledge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35,744
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
25,791 posts
21,701 battles
Just now, KristopherKringle said:

OK. White Knight away.

I don't understand. First you go out of your way to try and 'explain' to me what you really mean, and when I ask you to elaborate you pull the white knight card? What am I defending here? I'm asking you to explain to you why a company like WG would mess with your winchance, what's in it for them?

Can you even begin to explain that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×