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Admiral_Hippo

Odds of winning a battle

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The odds are a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, the dice are loaded.

PS "Big Brother"; please stop deleting my posts. Thankyou.

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5 minutes ago, Admiral_Hippo said:

The odds are a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, the dice are loaded.

PS "Big Brother"; please stop deleting my posts. Thankyou.

Statistics disagrees with your statement...

%90 percentile of all WOWS server regions population of players, fall into the %45 to %55 WR.

If the dice were loaded, to favor WOWS or the player... A high standard of deviation would be present and rather noticeable...

As it stands... There is no validity in the numbers to sustain your accusation.

I would want loaded dice, It will break the current conditions (either you will be a total fail or the other extreme winning to much).

 

Edited by Navalpride33
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25 minutes ago, Admiral_Hippo said:

The odds are a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, the dice are loaded.

PS "Big Brother"; please stop deleting my posts. Thankyou.

Dice are not loaded and you have no hidden posts from the beginning.
Now we all need to somehow live with this. :cap_tea:

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28 minutes ago, Admiral_Hippo said:

The odds are a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, the dice are loaded.

PS "Big Brother"; please stop deleting my posts. Thankyou.

You can improve your odds by improving as a player.

Or you can do like so many players and keep thinking that you have no control over your own WR.

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8 minutes ago, turbo07 said:

Dice are not loaded and you have no hidden posts from the beginning.
Now we all need to somehow live with this. :cap_tea:

Lol. I was gonna post something but you killed it mate. First laugh of the day.

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I believe that MM is not quite balanced...  until teams are balanced taking divisions into account, your odds of winning will be heavily influenced by the number of players in divisions in the match.

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13 minutes ago, SKurj said:

I believe that MM is not quite balanced...  until teams are balanced taking divisions into account, your odds of winning will be heavily influenced by the number of players in divisions in the match.

Now this is a FACT.

Edited by 9TenSix2Eight

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27 minutes ago, SKurj said:

I believe that MM is not quite balanced...  until teams are balanced taking divisions into account, your odds of winning will be heavily influenced by the number of players in divisions in the match.

Mot only that but the ccs and purple clans get special mm. They are always on teams with good players playing against teams full of 40 percenters. Ever notice how everyone sails broadside to them?

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Just now, monpetitloup said:

Mot only that but the ccs and purple clans get special mm. They are always on teams with good players playing against teams full of 40 percenters. Ever notice how everyone sails broadside to them?

Sorry man, my Dr has me off the booze and drugs atm

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2 minutes ago, SKurj said:

Sorry man, my Dr has me off the booze and drugs atm

Because with your 1k battles you have had time to make any observations?

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6 minutes ago, monpetitloup said:

Mot only that but the ccs and purple clans get special mm. They are always on teams with good players playing against teams full of 40 percenters. Ever notice how everyone sails broadside to them?

I have highlighted the biggest laugh in your post...    guess as I have so few battles you assume I am one of those sailing broadside for them?

Wargaming's MM is nothing new to me, it is very similar in their other titles, it ain't perfect but I have never seen this in the thousands of battles I have fought "balanced" by this thing.

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One feature of statistics is, with enough samples, individual suffering no longer matters.

And that's the source of the disconnection between WG's spreadsheet and players' enjoyment.

Edited by chewonit

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I know matchmaking is random but it can still be infuriating.

I track my games via matchmaker and I’ve been on the worse team for my last 21 randoms straight.  Record in those, 3–18.

I played for 2 months around 55% win rate to finally get my account to 50%.  Now that’s gone in 3 days.

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9 minutes ago, monpetitloup said:

Because with your 1k battles you have had time to make any observations?

if you doubt me there is an app to make analyzing this easier for you: mxStat, can show you the team list with the stats for each player.

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1 hour ago, Aaron_S_Merrill said:

Or you can do like so many players and keep thinking that you have no control over your own WR.

It's another example of "black or white" syndrome we see here so often.

Just like many feel that if you don't YOLO, you're hiding from everything and playing in a completely passive manner, they believe that if you don't have absolute control over your WR, you have none whatsoever.

The dice are indeed "loaded", but there's only one for each team, and WG has nothing to do with it.

Each individual player on a team adds or takes away a bit of the lead filling on the '1' face. The net result can easily be an unloaded die, or ine not loaded as much as the enemy's.

The problem many have is that WG isn't adding lead to one die or the other to equalise them.

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59 minutes ago, DM31 said:

I know matchmaking is random but it can still be infuriating.

I track my games via matchmaker and I’ve been on the worse team for my last 21 randoms straight.  Record in those, 3–18.

I played for 2 months around 55% win rate to finally get my account to 50%.  Now that’s gone in 3 days.

If you played for 2 months at a 55% WR, you'll likely do that again overall in the next two months.

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1 hour ago, monpetitloup said:

Mot only that but the ccs and purple clans get special mm. They are always on teams with good players playing against teams full of 40 percenters. Ever notice how everyone sails broadside to them?

Ever notice how many games cc’s have played compared to how many videos they post on YouTube or other posts! Flambass has posted “Spesshull” videos before where you see a bad game. Difference is that he’s a far better player than a lot of us! Always gonna be some games with broadsiding BBs/CA/CL and Youtubers will always post the “massive game” videos. You wouldn’t watch them is they were just average games.

its easy to blame “bad teams” or “loaded dice” but we’re the only person who can select the ship we’re about to play and have control over our own mouse and keyboard. I’m average at best but try to learn from my mistakes some of which are so instilled in my brain that it’s hard to correct ... but I’m trying!

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Please refrain from any attempts of personal attacks or stat shaming just to keep discussion civil and keep everybody's mood.

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1 hour ago, SKurj said:

if you doubt me there is an app to make analyzing this easier for you: mxStat, can show you the team list with the stats for each player.

i use mmm

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3 hours ago, Admiral_Hippo said:

The odds are a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, the dice are loaded.

 

loaded by your actions. If you play badly, that will have an unfortunate effect on your chances of winning.

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11 minutes ago, turbo07 said:

Please refrain from any attempts of personal attacks or stat shaming just to keep discussion civil and keep everybody's mood.

Dude, you are killing me...

 

this guy:

2 hours ago, monpetitloup said:

Mot only that but the ccs and purple clans get special mm. They are always on teams with good players playing against teams full of 40 percenters. Ever notice how everyone sails broadside to them?

 

1 hour ago, monpetitloup said:

Because with your 1k battles you have had time to make any observations?

This guy is full broadside waiting for a Devstrike... and I can't shoot. Boo.

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2 hours ago, turbo07 said:

Dice are not loaded and you have no hidden posts from the beginning.
Now we all need to somehow live with this. :cap_tea:

Turbo07, with respect, I think I see where the OP was headed.....  An example:  multiple Random losses in a row.......no matter how well you individually play.........over and over and over again....  Why?  Because there isn't a random distribution of player skills at densities the current MM can survive, without having constant +/- stomps.............  Because there isn't a way to cross check "skill" against the ship distribution in the one dimensional MM......  It is a statistical chance to be put on a team that is pre-dispositioned to win or lose because there aren't enough "average players" in the population to support "the 66% expected outcomes" those players represent....!   2/3 of the time you could expect a close game earlier..........now, it's more of 2/3 of the time you violently win or violently lose......  That makes it seem as if there are "odds" because "chance" is and has become the metric of the outcomes......  Add in the silliness of "other reward practices" and.............this is what you get............in mature game cycles.

Nothing is "wrong".......it's just that we've lost people, moved people around to find something "comfortable: play style wise and, to be honest, have introduce too many dissimilar weapons gimmick which have destabilized a great many's expectations and THAT, cause them to move...........somewhere.   Take me as an example:  I have stopped playing Randoms.  One less average player.  And, a great many others have stopped playing Randoms because they have become "gimmick fests" that are no fun for DD players anymore.....    

Perception has become reality in new players.......

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3 minutes ago, monpetitloup said:

i use mmm

as a new player i didn't know what mmm was, but i have managed to find it... and its been broken since 0.9.0... oh well I'll stay with mxstats for now.  

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5 minutes ago, SKurj said:

as a new player i didn't know what mmm was, but i have managed to find it... and its been broken since 0.9.0... oh well I'll stay with mxstats for now.  

get the new one from its discord. btw why do you think wg broke it?

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9 minutes ago, monpetitloup said:

get the new one from its discord. btw why do you think wg broke it?

I didn't say wg broke it, but the mmm dev says it is broken on their webpage.  I may try the one off the discord, but i've never got onboard with the whole discord movement...  i don't see the point.. but that's just me.

But thanks for introducing me to the app, i'll keep an eye for it.... actually no i won't... it appears to have some similarities to XVM (used in world of tanks to display similar info about players on both teams) i won't use that kind of thing, it adds nothing positive to the game.

LaeGbe0.png

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