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centarina

Yes, game is rigged to keep people near 50% WR

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It is in WG's best interest to keep players at certain minimum level of win rate.     In a match that does not have  form of skill rating,    developers need to create as many uncertainty as possible to drive the WR to 50% and reduce sigma of distribution.    what the WG want is for  WR to distribute between 40-60%.  Even the worst player will be above 40%.        To achieve this,    WG uses many features in the game to create unbalance.    This is also main reason why certain type of ships are in the match and will remain as long as it does not lose lot of players.      

1.  Pure random team  with exception of    divisions.       since division can be both good and bad   it tend to even out  in big picture, but it is one of the few tools that can help your WR if you are in division of strong players.       ideally bigger sized team would be more random. 

2.   CV:    it is where  one player can have huge impact to the good or bad.     why   CVs are allowed strong spotting.   WG already have stated that   minimap spotting only did not achieve what they were looking for.  Why CV will never be gone

3.  unbalanced ships:   this also create  bigger randomization with  in case of premium, benefit of   revenue.     win/win for wg

4. large number of gotcha gimmicks:      it is all about creating random imbalance after all

5. Subs:  no need to add anything  lol

 

WG doesn't need to rig player MM when   it has all these features    and I am sure I am missing many more.        so, please no more my match is rigged thread  :cap_haloween:

 

Edited by centarina
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16 minutes ago, centarina said:

 so, please no more my match is rigged thread  :cap_haloween:

 

image.jpeg.adf621be7a11519fe3a02d14a4dce1d0.jpeg

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I do not believe MM is sensible or fair.

Nor do I believe WG have control of the situation.

That is to say, the situation is OUT OF CONTROL.

But we shall deal with it, and overcome.

Buff the Krem.

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With the constant power creep ruining lots of older ships you might want to start not caring about winrate you will probably enjoy the game more. 

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The frog has some good points. I'd like to also point out that those who played WoT already knew all this, and how WG operates. Thus, we either didn't spend money or were far more cautious.

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Rigged, no.

The basic math of system that will put a random group of winners and losers together with almost no chance of a tie, yes. Eventually after enough games, your Win rate will be hovering around 50% if you only play solo. You're only 1/24th of the whole match.

If you want to improve that win rate by any meaningful amount, play almost exclusively in divisions. If you're with 2 other reasonably skilled players, your team now represents 1/8th of the players in the whole match and can have a far greater impact.

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20 minutes ago, Finchy said:

With the constant power creep ruining lots of older ships you might want to start not caring about winrate you will probably enjoy the game more. 

I disagree with you.  WG actually balances new ships a lot better than most games.  Des Moines is one of the first ships and can still compete with new cruisers.  Same with Shim and Gearing vs other DDs.  All ships have their own strengths and weaknesses but the power creep in this game is quite small for a game that is over 4 years old.

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Incredible coincidence that several totally spontaneous threads appear on the forum arguing that MM is rigged to "keep people near 50%", totally spontaneous topics, ofc, no rigging./

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3 minutes ago, LoveBote said:

Incredible coincidence that several totally spontaneous threads appear on the forum arguing that MM is rigged to "keep people near 50%", totally spontaneous topics, ofc, no rigging./

yup,  just like any CV thread  :cap_rambo:

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People are missing the OPs point...

 

Random battles, half the players win, half the players lose. Over time it averages to 50% for everyone. Not everyone is at 50%, but the overall average rate is 50%. No need for WG to rig it, statistics already has.

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1 minute ago, AJTP89 said:

People are missing the OPs point...

 

Random battles, half the players win, half the players lose. Over time it averages to 50% for everyone. Not everyone is at 50%, but the overall average rate is 50%. No need for WG to rig it, statistics already has.

close, but not quite.     the sigma of WR becomes smaller with better  randomization so distribution becomes narrower.       And  WG has done a great job of adding factors that add to the randomization.    so, better player will have higher WR, but not what they think they deserve.    and  worse player will have better WR than they deserve. 

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1 hour ago, centarina said:

It is in WG's best interest to keep players at certain minimum level of win rate.     In a match that does not have  form of skill rating,    developers need to create as many uncertainty as possible to drive the WR to 50%.       This means that  majority of the players need to be above 40% WR  even if they are starting out.      To achieve this,    WG uses many features in the game to create unbalance.    This is also main reason why certain type of ships are in the match and will remain as long as it does not lose lot of players.      

1.  Pure random team  with exception of    divisions.       since division can be both good and bad   it tend to even out  in big picture, but it is one of the few tools that can help your WR if you are in division of strong players.       ideally bigger sized team would be more random. 

2.   CV:    it is where  one player can have huge impact to the good or bad.     why   CVs are allowed strong spotting.   WG already have stated that   minimap spotting only did not achieve what they were looking for.  Why CV will never be gone

3.  unbalanced ships:   this also create  bigger randomization with  in case of premium, benefit of   revenue.     win/win for wg

4. large number of gotcha gimmicks:      it is all about creating random imbalance after all

5. Subs:  no need to add anything  lol

 

WG doesn't need to rig player MM when   it has all these features    and I am sure I am missing many more.        so, please no more my match is rigged thread  :cap_haloween:

 

When you bring out a rare ship ever notice how you play against said rare ship? WG absolutely is trying to keep you challenged by matching ship nations and type. This was done a while back to prevent situations where one side had all Khabs and the the other all Shimas.

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Aren't we having this same conversation in another thread? 

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38 minutes ago, ArIskandir said:

Aren't we having this same conversation in another thread? 

and this is surprising  news????

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1 hour ago, AJTP89 said:

People are missing the OPs point...

 

Random battles, half the players win, half the players lose. Over time it averages to 50% for everyone. Not everyone is at 50%, but the overall average rate is 50%. No need for WG to rig it, statistics already has.

Per battles, yes. Per players no. If one guy plays 100 games and wins 60% of those, and ten others play just 10 games each and this is the totality of games played, then WR average over players will be less than 50%, as one player is "hoovering" up all the wins.

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2 hours ago, RainbowFartingUnicorn said:

There's nothing wrong with matchmaking, IMHO. Win rate probably follows normal distribution naturally.

But only the people > 50% will admit that

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3 hours ago, SgtBeltfed said:

The basic math of system that will put a random group of winners and losers together with almost no chance of a tie, yes. Eventually after enough games, your Win rate will be hovering around 50% if you only play solo. You're only 1/24th of the whole match.

Funny, cause there's lots and lots of people with lots of games played and win rates well above 50%.  There's even a technical term for them... "good players".  You yourself have a solo win rate of 53%, that makes you a pretty decent player in my book.  Do you honestly think if you keep playing this game the same way you have been eventually your win rate will fall off to 50%?

The "you're only 1/24th of the whole match" is why even the best players lose a third of their solo games and even the worst players win a third of them.  But it is absolutely possible to be good and maintain a solo win rate well above average (or be terrible and maintain a solo win rate well below it).

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4 hours ago, centarina said:

It is in WG's best interest to keep players at certain minimum level of win rate.     In a match that does not have  form of skill rating,    developers need to create as many uncertainty as possible to drive the WR to 50% and reduce sigma of distribution.    what the WG want is for  WR to distribute between 40-60%.  Even the worst player will be above 40%.        To achieve this,    WG uses many features in the game to create unbalance.    This is also main reason why certain type of ships are in the match and will remain as long as it does not lose lot of players.      

1.  Pure random team  with exception of    divisions.       since division can be both good and bad   it tend to even out  in big picture, but it is one of the few tools that can help your WR if you are in division of strong players.       ideally bigger sized team would be more random. 

2.   CV:    it is where  one player can have huge impact to the good or bad.     why   CVs are allowed strong spotting.   WG already have stated that   minimap spotting only did not achieve what they were looking for.  Why CV will never be gone

3.  unbalanced ships:   this also create  bigger randomization with  in case of premium, benefit of   revenue.     win/win for wg

4. large number of gotcha gimmicks:      it is all about creating random imbalance after all5. Subs:  no need to add anything  lol

WG doesn't need to rig player MM when   it has all these features    and I am sure I am missing many more.        so, please no more my match is rigged thread  :cap_haloween:

It's called a Random Distribution Curve..........   The 66% in the middle of the game are what this arcade game required for the MM even to sort of work.........  If 66% of a match are filled with average players, Randoms have a higher average of games that are close !     2019 decimated the average player population..............and, that is why there are mostly one sided victories in Random matches....   The current MM doesn't even look at any skill metric: it just tried to balance ships classes.   Now, some will argue "oh this is not true......"  Really?   After about 8 years of looking at videogame data and playing several games that finally got into the Mature games cycle, they to the game started having the same issues we are seeing.............stomps after stomps after stomps.   Holes in the population's skill capabilities.....   History is the true test of assumptions about technology and history that I explored and experienced says that holes in game populations that do not use a skill based MM display the stuff we are seeing match after match.......... !  It's just the way mature games either change demographics or close.......

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LOL if you look up enough people around here or used MM Monitor during games, 50% WR isn't typical, it's much lower! :Smile_teethhappy:

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 average by definition is 50% for the whole population but median is lower.  Also I am guessing that lot of dead account   which can skew the  MM average.         my guess is that the distribution for playing population is biased rather than normal.     Still the fact that  WG wants narrow standard deviation  to keep people from feeling too bad and giving up quickly.   I am stating that RNG  does account for the fact that it is very tough to get WR above certain level and can seem like rigged.  

 

good player can influence match much more at lower tier, and able to carry higher  WR.  you can also increase WR by playing few ships that are strong and suited to your play style.      if you want pad,  it is possible, but personally   I don't care, so I grinded everything and few ship that has lot of play are few premium I had starting this game out and needed credit. 

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4 hours ago, centarina said:

It is in WG's best interest to keep players at certain minimum level of win rate.     In a match that does not have  form of skill rating,    developers need to create as many uncertainty as possible to drive the WR to 50% and reduce sigma of distribution.    what the WG want is for  WR to distribute between 40-60%.  Even the worst player will be above 40%.        To achieve this,    WG uses many features in the game to create unbalance.    This is also main reason why certain type of ships are in the match and will remain as long as it does not lose lot of players.      

1.  Pure random team  with exception of    divisions.       since division can be both good and bad   it tend to even out  in big picture, but it is one of the few tools that can help your WR if you are in division of strong players.       ideally bigger sized team would be more random. 

2.   CV:    it is where  one player can have huge impact to the good or bad.     why   CVs are allowed strong spotting.   WG already have stated that   minimap spotting only did not achieve what they were looking for.  Why CV will never be gone

3.  unbalanced ships:   this also create  bigger randomization with  in case of premium, benefit of   revenue.     win/win for wg

4. large number of gotcha gimmicks:      it is all about creating random imbalance after all

5. Subs:  no need to add anything  lol

 

WG doesn't need to rig player MM when   it has all these features    and I am sure I am missing many more.        so, please no more my match is rigged thread  :cap_haloween:

 

The 90th percentile of the player population of all region servers is  the

%45-%55 block.

This is not rigged this is normal...

Now, if you find someone with %75WR or %35WR, with over 12k battles... I am throwing my Diapering flag...

This is bot territory, the %5 percentile.. The odd ones that need further investigation as to how they made it there in the first place...

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There is no guesswork needed in the matter of MM - as WG filed its patient on their matchmaker system.  You can read it all here:

https://patents.google.com/patent/US8425330B1/en

There are a lot of interesting things to note, but MM is indeed controlled and manipulated for certain results so players aren't "frustrated".  Here is a key section:

That is, if extremely experienced players are paired with complete novices, the experienced players may quickly become bored, while the novice players may quickly become frustrated, causing each of them to stop playing the game altogether. Thus, the matchmaking server(s) 106 determine how to assign players to an instance of a virtual world so that every player is challenged, without getting frustrated. Specific algorithms and techniques used for matchmaking are described in more detail below.

There is a lot of data on MM in that patient that makes it obvious things are very much "controlled" by WG....but i think it makes sense to do that.  Perhaps they could always improve their MM but leaving it totally to chance might be worse.

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4 minutes ago, GiN_nTonic said:

There is no guesswork needed in the matter of MM - as WG filed its patient on their matchmaker system.  You can read it all here:

https://patents.google.com/patent/US8425330B1/en

There are a lot of interesting things to note, but MM is indeed controlled and manipulated for certain results.  Here is a key section:

That is, if extremely experienced players are paired with complete novices, the experienced players may quickly become bored, while the novice players may quickly become frustrated, causing each of them to stop playing the game altogether. Thus, the matchmaking server(s) 106 determine how to assign players to an instance of a virtual world so that every player is challenged, without getting frustrated. Specific algorithms and techniques used for matchmaking are described in more detail below.

There is a lot of data on MM in that patient that makes it obvious things are very much "controlled" by WG.

Yes, but if you comb through it all, you'll see that the challenge/frustration level is moderated solely by adjusting tiering, or "battle levels".

Plus, they don't use everything in there, they only could.

You don't need to go any further than comparing WoT's preferred MM for some premiums to no such practice here, to see that particular control isn't used.

As well, some of it obviously is used, as we have the "40% bottom tier rule", and the patent actually describes that usage almost word for word.

Basically, the patent gives them all kinds of ways to adjust a player's experience, within that team, but not between teams.

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