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Merc85

Data on MM - Influence of Team Win Rate on Outcome

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Since the MM Monitor makes it easy to see win rate data for teams, for the fun of it I decided to keep some data on it for a while and see what influence team's overall average win rates have on the results of battles.    Here is what I found, albeit not too surprising imo.

I kept data on my last 200 matches.  I played mainly high tiers because that way most if not all of the players in the match would have enough battles for their overall win rate to be statistically significant.  I used the player's overall win rate and not their win rate for the ship they were playing because in many cases the number of battles in each ship was quite low and therefor not statistically significant.  Plus imo a player's overall win rate indicates that players skill.  The average tier I played was 9 (per WoWs stats).  For almost all battles I was in a tier 8, 9 or 10.  For just a couple of battles I was in a tier 6 or 7.  For each battle I kept track of the difference in overall team average win rates and then which team won.   Here are the results:

In 18% of the matches the team's overall average win rates were equal.  The team I was on won 56% of those battles (which weirdly is almost exactly what my overall win rate is).

In 28% of the matches one team had a 1% point higher average win rate and that team won 61% of the battles.

In 23% of the matches one team had a 2% point higher average win rate and that team won 70% of the battles.

In 15% of the matches one team had a 3% point higher average win rate and that team won 79% of the battles.

And in 16% of the matches one team had a 4% point or higher average win rate and that team won 91% of the battles.  The highest difference in the average win rate percent between teams was 7% points and the team with the 7% point lower win rate actually won that match!!!

If this data holds in the long run, about 1/5 of your matches would be a toss up.  And if you are on the team with the higher average player win rate you have a 62% chance of winning that battle  So if you think the outcome of matches are predetermined by the matchmaker, it clearly influences the results but in many cases, even with an average of 7% lower win rate for your team, you can still win.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Merc85 said:

Since the MM Monitor makes it easy to see win rate data for teams, for the fun of it I decided to keep some data on it for a while and see what influence team's overall average win rates have on the results of battles.    Here is what I found, albeit not too surprising imo.

I kept data on my last 200 matches.  I played mainly high tiers because that way most if not all of the players in the match would have enough battles for their overall win rate to be statistically significant.  I used the player's overall win rate and not their win rate for the ship they were playing because in many cases the number of battles in each ship was quite low and therefor not statically significant.  Plus imo a player's overall win rate indicates that players skill.  The average tier I played was 9 (per WoWs stats).  For almost all battles I was in a tier 8, 9 or 10.  For just a couple of battles I was in a tier 6 or 7.  For each battle I kept track of the difference in overall team average win rates and then which team won.   Here are the results:

In 18% of the matches the team's overall average win rates were equal.  The team I was on won 56% of those battles (which weirdly is almost exactly what my overall win rate is).

In 28% of the matches one team had a 1% point higher average win rate and that team won 61% of the battles.

In 23% of the matches one team had a 2% point higher average win rate and that team won 70% of the battles.

In 15% of the matches one team had a 3% point higher average win rate and that team won 79% of the battles.

And in 16% of the matches one team had a 4% point or higher average win rate and that team won 91% of the battles.  The highest difference in the average win rate percent between teams was 7% points and the team with the 7% point lower win rate actually won that match!!!

If this data holds in the long run, about 1/5 of your matches would be a toss up.  And if you are on the team with the higher average player win rate you have a 62% chance of winning that battle  So if you think the outcome of matches are predetermined by the matchmaker, it clearly influences the results but in many cases, even with an average of 7% lower win rate for your team, you can still win.

Merc, I'm a little surprised that such a small difference in AWR would have such a great affect on which team won.  Note that I'm not surprised that it made a difference, just that such a small difference has such a large impact.

It would be interesting to see this sort of data breakdown over a huge sample size, because I have to say that when I'm thinking about SBMM, I haven't been thinking that a mere 1% WR diff would have this great an impact on the result.

 

Just out of curiosity, how were you doing your percentage breakdowns for AWR?  For example, when you say a 2% difference, are you saying every battle from 1.01% to 2.00% AWR difference? Or are you using standard rounding, i.e.  1.51% up to 2.50% being the 2% AWR data group?  This is basically a 0.5% difference in what the 2% AWR value really means.

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2 hours ago, Merc85 said:

Since the MM Monitor makes it easy to see win rate data for teams, for the fun of it I decided to keep some data on it for a while and see what influence team's overall average win rates have on the results of battles.    Here is what I found, albeit not too surprising imo.

I kept data on my last 200 matches.  I played mainly high tiers because that way most if not all of the players in the match would have enough battles for their overall win rate to be statistically significant.  I used the player's overall win rate and not their win rate for the ship they were playing because in many cases the number of battles in each ship was quite low and therefor not statically significant.  Plus imo a player's overall win rate indicates that players skill.  The average tier I played was 9 (per WoWs stats).  For almost all battles I was in a tier 8, 9 or 10.  For just a couple of battles I was in a tier 6 or 7.  For each battle I kept track of the difference in overall team average win rates and then which team won.   Here are the results:

In 18% of the matches the team's overall average win rates were equal.  The team I was on won 56% of those battles (which weirdly is almost exactly what my overall win rate is).

In 28% of the matches one team had a 1% point higher average win rate and that team won 61% of the battles.

In 23% of the matches one team had a 2% point higher average win rate and that team won 70% of the battles.

In 15% of the matches one team had a 3% point higher average win rate and that team won 79% of the battles.

And in 16% of the matches one team had a 4% point or higher average win rate and that team won 91% of the battles.  The highest difference in the average win rate percent between teams was 7% points and the team with the 7% point lower win rate actually won that match!!!

If this data holds in the long run, about 1/5 of your matches would be a toss up.  And if you are on the team with the higher average player win rate you have a 62% chance of winning that battle  So if you think the outcome of matches are predetermined by the matchmaker, it clearly influences the results but in many cases, even with an average of 7% lower win rate for your team, you can still win.

 

 

 

Ok, where is the Data???

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1 minute ago, Crucis said:

......................................

Just out of curiosity, how were you doing your percentage breakdowns for AWR?  For example, when you say a 2% difference, are you saying every battle from 1.01% to 2.00% AWR difference? Or are you using standard rounding, i.e.  1.51% up to 2.50% being the 2% AWR data group?  This is basically a 0.5% difference in what the 2% AWR value really means.

I used standard rounding -  the latter in your question - since I felt that was more accurate. 

Also, remember a 1% point difference in AWR for the team means that basically every single player on the team has a 1% better win rate than their counterparts on the other team.  So going from a 50/50 chance to a 60/40 chance doesn't seem that out of line, at least imo.

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1 minute ago, Navalpride33 said:

Ok, where is the Data???

On a couple of sheets of paper that I used to keep track of the 200 matches and another sheet where I transposed that data into the five groups I posted.  Do you want photos of those sheets of paper? 

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1 minute ago, Merc85 said:

On a couple of sheets of paper that I used to keep track of the 200 matches and another sheet where I transposed that data into the five groups I posted.  Do you want photos of those sheets of paper? 

*sigh*.... No thinks, I thought it was done on a worksheet or a stats program... Instead, it was on the dinosaur method of pen and paper...

Meaning.... Even if you posted the results, the chances of anyone else replicating your results, using your parameters, is reduced to null/zero...

Oh well...

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Just now, Merc85 said:

I used standard rounding -  the latter in your question - since I felt that was more accurate. 

Also, remember a 1% point difference in AWR for the team means that basically every single player on the team has a 1% better win rate than their counterparts on the other team.  So going from a 50/50 chance to a 60/40 chance doesn't seem that out of line, at least imo.

This data is staggering.  I just wonder how these conclusions would hold up with a far larger sample size.

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Minor diffs = big effects because of the snowballing effects of such "minor" differences. i found the same thing with radar. For small numbers of total radar in the match, a +1 advantage in radar means a 60% win rate. For large numbers total radar ships, more than 5 ships total, it doesn't much matter.

 

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2 hours ago, Navalpride33 said:

*sigh*.... No thinks, I thought it was done on a worksheet or a stats program... Instead, it was on the dinosaur method of pen and paper...

Meaning.... Even if you posted the results, the chances of anyone else replicating your results, using your parameters, is reduced to null/zero...

Oh well...

If his findings are accurate the method of recording does not matter.

 

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10 minutes ago, Learux said:

If his findings are accurate the method of recording does not matter.

 

For some people who care about stats... It does, its a matter of integrity of his work...

As far as I am concern, its not valid stats work to come to a conclusion, to where we cant reproduce/scrutinize to come to the same consensus...

As far I am concern, anyone can create numbers and say what they represent something... Its totally different having the actual work on paper to back it up... 

His work, his opinion... Its unfortunate.

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5 hours ago, Merc85 said:

The team I was on won 56% of those battles (which weirdly is almost exactly what my overall win rate is).

Note that your own win rate being above average means your team is more likely to have the higher average win rate.

It might be interesting to compare the average win rate of the 11 other people on your team to the enemy team.

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8 minutes ago, Navalpride33 said:

For some people who care about stats... It does, its a matter of integrity of his work...

As far as I am concern, its not valid stats work to come to a conclusion, to where we cant reproduce/scrutinize to come to the same consensus...

As far I am concern, anyone can create numbers and say what they represent something... Its totally different having the actual work on paper to back it up... 

His work, his opinion... Its unfortunate.

Hmm......anyone can run 200 battles and take down the data like I did to reproduce it.  What difference does it make whether I wasted my time to put it into a pretty looking spreadsheet or not, the tests can be reproduced in either case.   It's not an opinion, it's based upon the data from 200 battles. 
I'd be glad to take the time to enter all of it into a program if that's what makes you feel better.  Geez.

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I think OP is onto something and I hope that WG takes notice. I think we are all served by better MM.

Beginning with balancing 3 man division would be a good start.

Just lost another match in spectacular blow out fashion. 3 man purple clan against a random team.

Is that what we all want?

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2 minutes ago, Merc85 said:

Hmm......anyone can run 200 battles and take down the data like I did to reproduce it.  What difference does it make whether I wasted my time to put it into a pretty looking spreadsheet or not, the tests can be reproduced in either case.   It's not an opinion, it's based upon the data from 200 battles. 
I'd be glad to take the time to enter all of it into a program if that's what makes you feel better.  Geez.

the method of recording data is not the end goal.

It's to put you on the defensive and derail the thread.

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11 minutes ago, WernerHerzdog said:

Note that your own win rate being above average means your team is more likely to have the higher average win rate.

It might be interesting to compare the average win rate of the 11 other people on your team to the enemy team.

I know it made no difference...but I thought it was weird how it turned out.

But I do know that for those battles where the team average win rates were the same, the other 11 members of my team had an average win rate of about 0.6% points less than than the average win rate of the other team.

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3 minutes ago, Merc85 said:

Hmm......anyone can run 200 battles and take down the data like I did to reproduce it.  What difference does it make whether I wasted my time to put it into a pretty looking spreadsheet or not, the tests can be reproduced in either case.   It's not an opinion, it's based upon the data from 200 battles. 
I'd be glad to take the time to enter all of it into a program if that's what makes you feel better.  Geez.

The difference is your results will have a very high standard of deviation...

I would rather prefer you redo your stats but this time making sure the data is entered and collected correctly...

Human error in data entering/collecting is the must common errors in stats leading to false or errors in the numbers... 

In stats, they say "garbage in garbage out" philosophy.. If the collection method used has a very high standard of deviation, then what ever conclusion becomes close to garbage...

Like I said, I was disappointed because we can't (those who deal in stats) validate your findings... We can only take it as your opinion... 

That is cool no harm no foul.

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I did something similar a while back. You can find the raw data below:

Spoiler
WR my team WR enemy team Approx WR my team without me Current Enterprise WR Advantage enemy? Advantage enemy without me? Win/Loss?
64,88% 47,78% 60,88% 80,46% NO NO W
47,40% 49,67% 43,40% 80,48% YES YES W
53,08% 44,68% 49,08% 80,49% NO NO W
46,38% 51,15% 42,38% 80,51% YES YES W
52,76% 44,19% 48,76% 80,54% NO NO W
52,26% 47,19% 48,26% 80,56% NO NO W
54,40% 51.34% 50,40% 80,57% YES YES W
59,59% 56,64% 55,59% 80,59% NO YES W
52,78% 46,44% 48,78% 80,61% NO NO W
59,14% 49,17% 55,14% 80,64% NO NO W
45,00% 51,18% 41,00% 80,68% YES YES W
52,37% 54,44% 48,37% 80,70% YES YES W
49,55% 41,90% 45,55% 80,75% NO NO W
53,95% 56,37% 49,95% 80,76% YES YES W
61,61% 57,09% 57,61% 80,78% NO NO W
59,36% 52,63% 55,36% 80,79% NO NO W
51,89% 53,35% 47,89% 80,83% YES YES W
52,68% 46,65% 48,68% 80,84% NO NO W
49,25% 47,27% 45,25% 80,86% NO YES W
48,09% 46,63% 44,09% 80,87% NO YES W
53,86% 49,33% 49,86% 80,90% NO NO L
53,04% 48,81% 49,04% 80,84% NO NO W
53,71% 50,76% 49,71% 80,85% NO YES L
44,99% 47,74% 40,99% 80,79% YES YES W
57,36% 50,34% 53,36% 80,80% NO NO W
54,54% 50,13% 50,54% 80,82% NO NO W
55,79% 52,16% 51,79% 80,83% NO YES W
47,26% 46,18% 43,26% 80,85% NO YES L
54,23% 42,28% 50,23% 80,78% NO NO W
60,25% 41,81% 56,25% 80,80% NO NO W
50,35% 47,01% 46,35% 80,82% NO YES W
52,80% 49,65% 48,80% 80,83% NO YES W
55,21% 48,45% 51,21% 80,85% NO NO W
46,20% 52,41% 42,20% 80,86% YES YES W
54,02% 47,45% 50,02% 80,88% NO NO L
51,42% 51,09% 47,42% 80,81% NO YES W
55,00% 51,45% 51,00% 80,83% NO YES W
55,46% 46,63% 51,46% 80,84% NO NO W
53,82% 52,91% 49,82% 80,86% NO YES W
50,32% 39,51% 46,32% 80,87% NO NO L
50,05% 46,53% 46,05% 80,81% NO YES W
49,26% 48,30% 45,26% 80,82% NO YES W
45,82% 50,94% 41,82% 80,84% YES YES L
52,36% 52,12% 48,36% 80,78% NO YES W
54,78% 49,76% 50,78% 80,79% NO NO L
52,11% 49,13% 48,11% 80,73% NO YES W
42,28% 46,31% 38,28% 80,74% YES YES W
47,14% 46,22% 43,14% 80,76% NO YES W
46,23% 56,22% 42,23% 80,77% YES YES L
49,30% 43,02% 45,30% 80,71% NO NO W
47,01% 42,59% 43,01% 80,72% NO NO W
49,88% 46,33% 45,88% 80,74% NO YES W
52,47% 47,16% 48,47% 80,75% NO NO W
51,06% 55,27% 47,06% 80,77% YES YES L
59,85% 49,81% 55,85% 80,72% NO NO W
49,31% 49,31% 45,31% 80,74% NO YES W
47,18% 53,84% 43,18% 80,75% YES YES L
56,29% 43,50% 52,29% 80,69% NO NO W
62,12% 51,07% 58,12% 80,70% NO NO W
59,71% 43,35% 55,71% 80,72% NO NO W
52,37% 44,49% 48,37% 80,73% NO NO W
51,63% 53,16% 47,63% 80,75% YES YES W
50,67% 66,40% 46,67% 80,76% YES YES L
51,88% 48,75% 47,88% 80,70% NO YES W
58,36% 51,36% 54,36% 80,72% NO NO L
54,00% 54,82% 50,00% 80,65% YES YES W
51,28% 48,36% 47,28% 80,67% NO YES W
51,77% 47,35% 47,77% 80,68% NO NO W
55,38% 48,31% 51,38% 80,70% NO NO W
53,29% 50,21% 49,29% 80,71% NO YES W
44,40% 51,47% 40,40% 80,73% YES YES L
52,87% 50,07% 48,87% 80,67% NO YES L
51,81% 42,83% 47,81% 80,60% NO NO W
51,31% 42,94% 47,31% 80,62% NO NO L
51,08% 46,96% 47,08% 80,56% NO NO L
51,25% 48,42% 47,25% 80,49% NO YES W
46,45% 47,76% 42,45% 80,51% YES YES W
51,88% 51,53% 47,88% 80,52% NO YES W
51,32% 38,74% 47,32% 80,54% NO NO W
52,93% 52,14% 48,93% 80,55% NO YES W
47,77% 44,42% 43,77% 80,57% NO YES W
53,64% 50,15% 49,64% 80,58% NO YES W
58,11% 48,38% 54,11% 80,64% NO NO W
53,94% 58,21% 49,94% 80,66% YES YES L
62,09% 51,21% 58,09% 80,60% NO NO L
55,56% 46,69% 51,56% 80,53% NO NO W
48,65% 61,25% 44,65% 80,55% YES YES W
53,74% 50,44% 49,74% 80,56% NO YES W
49,33% 47,40% 45,33% 80,58% NO YES W
46,14% 52,50% 42,14% 80,59% YES YES W
51,27% 51,57% 47,27% 80,61% YES YES W
50,70% 55,95% 46,70% 80,62% YES YES W
53,76% 46,23% 49,76% 80,64% NO NO W
62,29% 49,97% 58,29% 80,65% NO NO W
58,16% 40,28% 54,16% 80,67% NO NO W
50,87% 48,84% 46,87% 80,68% NO YES L
54,94% 44,11% 50,94% 80,62% NO NO W
47,92% 55,95% 43,92% 80,64% YES YES L
48,91% 48,67% 44,91% 80,57% NO YES W
52,32% 50,57% 48,32% 80,59% NO YES L
53,19% 41,96% 49,19% 80,53% NO NO W
46,03% 54,35% 42,03% 80,54% YES YES W
53,57% 47,96% 49,57% 80,56% NO NO W
46,90% 54,05% 42,90% 80,57% YES YES W
44,84% 50,81% 40,84% 80,59% YES YES L
57,17% 44,97% 53,17% 80,53% NO NO W
46,00% 55,79% 42,00% 80,54% YES YES W
53,76% 55,71% 49,76% 80,56% YES YES W
49,76% 51,49% 45,76% 80,58% YES YES W
52,14% 48,76% 48,14% 80,60% NO YES W
43,27% 48,60% 39,27% 80,61% YES YES W
54,11% 49,64% 50,11% 80,63% NO NO W
55,84% 49,05% 51,84% 80,64% NO NO W
53,34% 45,58% 49,34% 80,67% NO NO W
54,92% 48,58% 50,92% 80,69% NO NO W
50,05% 51,22% 46,05% 80,70% YES YES W
52,49% 55,58% 48,49% 80,71% YES YES W
53,11% 46,06% 49,11% 80,73% NO NO W
52,55% 37,00% 48,55% 80,74% NO NO L
49,67% 48,40% 45,67% 80,68% NO YES W
51,07% 50,59% 47,07% 80,70% NO YES W
58,77% 51,75% 54,77% 80,71% NO NO W
48,73% 50,30% 44,73% 80,73% YES YES W
50,69% 43,39% 46,69% 80,74% NO NO W
50,09% 48,76% 46,09% 80,75% NO YES L
56,52% 45,06% 52,52% 80,70% NO NO W
47,30% 44,75% 43,30% 80,71% NO YES W
50,29% 47,80% 46,29% 80,72% NO YES L
50,31% 57,11% 46,31% 80,66% YES YES W
49,44% 51,26% 45,44% 80,68% YES YES W
41,98% 46,11% 37,98% 80,69% YES YES W
47,32% 43,40% 43,32% 80,71% NO YES W
39,06% 53,23% 35,06% 80,72% YES YES W
48,40% 51,59% 44,40% 80,74% YES YES W
52,65% 45,10% 48,65% 80,75% NO NO W
54,04% 45,64% 50,04% 80,76% NO NO W
55,55% 46,43% 51,55% 80,78% NO NO L
62,83% 53,77% 58,83% 80,72% NO NO W
57,97% 55,81% 53,97% 80,73% NO YES W
50,84% 44,97% 46,84% 80,75% NO NO W
52,56% 60,67% 48,56% 80,76% YES YES W
56,02% 50,19% 52,02% 80,77% NO NO W
56,31% 51,17% 52,31% 80,79% NO NO W
50,71% 49,72% 46,71% 80,82% NO YES W
54,68% 54,84% 50,68% 80,83% YES YES L
55,46% 43,82% 51,46% 80,77% NO NO W
50,21% 53,01% 46,21% 80,79% YES YES W
47,51% 53,85% 43,51% 80,80% YES YES W
58,23% 48,26% 54,23% 80,81% NO NO W
50,79% 46,70% 46,79% 80,83% NO NO W
48,05% 52,38% 44,05% 80,84% YES YES L
51,52% 46,83% 47,52% 80,78% NO NO W
50,12% 44,74% 46,12% 80,80% NO NO W
56,09% 42,92% 52,09% 80,81% NO NO W
49,34% 52,74% 45,34% 80,82% YES YES W
60,57% 53,68% 56,57% 80,84% NO NO W
48,37% 40,71% 44,37% 80,85% NO NO W
60,02% 49,61% 56,02% 80,87% NO NO W
57,38% 50,39% 53,38% 80,88% NO NO W
47,62% 43,82% 43,62% 80,89% NO YES W
47,31% 54,49% 43,31% 80,91% YES YES W
54,47% 46,29% 50,47% 80,89% NO NO W
45,28% 46,86% 41,28% 80,90% YES YES W
60,41% 46,10% 56,41% 80,92% NO NO W
54,95% 51,94% 50,95% 80,93% NO YES W
46,46% 42,92% 42,46% 80,95% NO YES W
49,21% 50,19% 45,21% 80,96% YES YES W
51,36% 35,74% 47,36% 80,99% NO NO W
56,66% 43,21% 52,66% 81,00% NO NO W
58,33% 47,06% 54,33% 81,01% NO NO W
43,39% 48,62% 39,39% 81,03% YES YES W
46,56% 48,76% 42,56% 81,16% YES YES W
49,62% 49,63% 45,62% 80,17% YES YES W
46,41% 49,83% 42,41% 81,19% YES YES W
52,11% 48,78% 48,11% 81,23% NO YES W
55,27% 55,37% 51,27% 81,28% YES YES W
52,87% 45,20% 48,87% 81,30% NO NO L
44,37% 42,15% 40,37% 81,25% NO YES W
51,00% 44,57% 47,00% 80,26% NO NO W
52,83% 31,37% 48,83% 81,27% NO NO W
47,21% 56,44% 43,21% 81,28% YES YES L
55,81% 49,66% 51,81% 81,23% NO NO W
44,80% 46,38% 40,80% 81,24% YES YES W
57,18% 49,94% 53,18% 81,18% NO NO W
54,39% 54,28% 50,39% 81,19% NO YES L
53,17% 48,64% 49,17% 81,14% NO NO W
49,31% 51,80% 45,31% 81,22% YES YES W
53,33% 52,42% 49,33% 81,23% NO YES W
54,11% 55,46% 50,11% 81,24% YES YES W
52,55% 44,14% 48,55% 81,25% NO NO W
44,95% 54,38% 40,95% 81,27% YES YES L
46,49% 41,13% 42,49% 81,21% NO NO W
55,71% 48,40% 51,71% 81,22% NO NO L
49,71% 49,38% 45,71% 81,17% NO YES W
50,53% 47,78% 46,53% 81,18% NO YES W
58,18% 47,59% 54,18% 81,19% NO NO W
50,32% 49,74% 46,32% 81,21% NO YES W
49,68% 54,73% 45,68% 81,22% YES YES L
44,69% 51,88% 40,69% 81,16% YES YES L
54,02% 47,03% 50,02% 81,11% NO NO W
44,29% 45,96% 40,29% 81,12% YES YES W
52,69% 54,66% 48,69% 81,15% YES YES W
56,67% 53,24% 52,67% 81,16% NO YES W
49,24% 52,90% 45,24% 81,19% YES YES W
53,66% 46,17% 49,66% 81,30% NO NO W
52,80% 44,21% 48,80% 81,33% NO NO W
58,64% 44,83% 54,64% 81,32% NO NO W
60,61% 50,78% 56,61% 81,36% NO NO L
61,58% 43,66% 57,58% 81,30% NO NO W
55,21% 49,04% 51,21% 81,32% NO NO W
59,94% 52,91% 55,94% 81,33% NO NO W
59,95% 47,86% 55,95% 81,34% NO NO W
55,77% 47,81% 51,77% 81,35% NO NO W
54,95% 52,21% 50,95% 81,37% NO YES W
55,53% 48,62% 51,53% 81,38% NO NO W
59,03% 48,42% 55,03% 81,39% NO NO W
56,50% 48,90% 52,50% 81,40% NO NO W
61,90% 51,27% 57,90% 81,41% NO NO W
56,12% 50,58% 52,12% 81,42% NO NO W
55,15% 52,54% 51,15% 81,44% NO YES W
58,05% 46,95% 54,05% 81,45% NO NO W
58,29% 51,44% 54,29% 81,46% NO NO L
57,84% 50,88% 53,84% 81,41% NO NO W
58,29% 52,05% 54,29% 81,42% NO NO W
53,34% 51,48% 49,34% 81,43% NO YES L
57,70% 52,41% 53,70% 81,38% NO NO W
57,00% 50,50% 53,00% 81,39% NO NO W
54,39% 49,58% 50,39% 81,40% NO NO L
56,81% 48,71% 52,81% 81,35% NO NO W
61,63% 49,31% 57,63% 81,36% NO NO W
54,21% 52,30% 50,21% 81,37% NO YES W
58,51% 47,05% 54,51% 81,39% NO NO L
56,41% 49,05% 52,41% 81,33% NO NO W
59,68% 49,30% 55,68% 81,34% NO NO W
56,43% 51,18% 52,43% 81,36% NO NO W
55,71% 48,83% 51,71% 81,37% NO NO W
52,96% 44,21% 48,96% 81,38% NO NO W
52,22% 50,51% 48,22% 81,39% NO YES L
54,14% 51,27% 50,14% 81,34% NO YES L
50,43% 49,21% 46,43% 81,29% NO YES W
52,99% 47,12% 48,99% 81,30% NO NO W
56,01% 50,82% 52,01% 81,31% NO NO W
Forgot to record one here fug L
54,79% 49,27% 50,79% 81,27% NO NO W
59,17% 48,23% 55,17% 81,28% NO NO W
57,76% 48,36% 53,76% 81,29% NO NO W
52,65% 48,67% 48,65% 81,31% NO YES L
56,52% 48,60% 52,52% 81,25% NO NO W
50,65% 51,72% 46,65% 81,27% YES YES L
58,69% 47,70% 54,69% 81,21% NO NO L
53,85% 52,04% 49,85% 81,17% NO YES L
52,67% 48,33% 48,67% 81,11% NO NO W
60,33% 50,47% 56,33% 81,12% NO NO W
56,60% 47,07% 52,60% 81,13% NO NO W
57,90% 54,82% 53,90% 81,14% NO YES L
56,23% 52,70% 52,23% 81,09% NO YES W
58,91% 53,64% 54,91% 81,10% NO NO W
59,36% 50,11% 55,36% 81,12% NO NO W
54,55% 47,76% 50,55% 81,13% NO NO W
50,52% 48,76% 46,52% 81,14% NO YES W
50,78% 49,63% 46,78% 81,20% NO YES W
53,04% 45,75% 49,04% 81,21% NO NO W
51,35% 49,60% 47,35% 81,25% NO YES W
54,51% 50,06% 50,51% 81,26% NO NO W
50,21% 50,41% 46,21% 81,27% YES YES L
48,44% 49,96% 44,44% 81,22% YES YES L
52,81% 50,37% 48,81% 81,17% NO YES W
51,69% 48,43% 47,69% 81,18% NO YES W
50,97% 48,15% 46,97% 81,19% NO YES W
48,70% 48,12% 44,70% 81,21% NO YES W
51,24% 48,68% 47,24% 81,22% NO YES W
53,72% 50,41% 49,72% 81,23% NO YES L
53,15% 47,94% 49,15% 81,18% NO NO W
52,83% 50,33% 48,83% 81,19% NO YES W
50,38% 51,65% 46,38% 81,20% YES YES W
51,02% 50,11% 47,02% 81,21% NO YES W
52,27% 50,60% 48,27% 81,23% NO YES W
51,07% 48,96% 47,07% 81,24% NO YES W
53,86% 51,57% 49,86% 81,25% NO YES W
50,29% 49,00% 46,29% 81,26% NO YES L
52,12% 48,41% 48,12% 81,21% NO YES W
53,99% 46,35% 49,99% 81,22% NO NO W
51,13% 48,36% 47,13% 81,23% NO YES W
54,47% 49,46% 50,47% 81,27% NO NO W
51,29% 49,84% 47,29% 81,30% NO YES W
55,43% 46,81% 51,43% 81,31% NO NO W
51,21% 47,58% 47,21% 81,32% NO YES W
53,11% 49,97% 49,11% 81,34% NO YES W
47,45% 50,22% 43,45% 81,35% YES YES W

I recorded data only using a single ship as I wanted do disprove people saying stuff like "omg WG is deliberately shafting me in this particular ship". Total battle count is 289, of which 237 were won and 52 were lost (82,01% WR). I used only the average WR that Matchmaking Monitor gave me in its team summary stats and compared those, nothing detailed like in the OP. This immediately presented me with an issue as my own WR is so high that I heavily skew average stats towards a positive direction even if the rest of my teammates are complete potatoes. To this end I took a few sample matches, calculated that I on average have roughly a 4% positive impact on average WR and simply subtracted that from my team's average WR (as I was too lazy to calculate it every single time). This naturally means one should keep in mind that my overall results have a margin of error but it does normalize to something conclusive regardless.

With me calculated in my team had the advantage 219 times while the enemy had the advantage 69 times. Again tho, this is expected what with me sitting at a high WR and doesn't mean MM loves me or anything.
Without me calculated in my team had the advantage 136 times while the enemy had the advantage 152 times. As such one can see that the chance of one getting better teammates over their opponents or not roughly normalizes towards 50%. This is precisely what data should show if MM was completely random as WG says it is.

So yeah, the next time you're on a losing streak, know that either you're being unlucky or it is actually your own fault.

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Blah, winrate. What I care about is not having most games be a complete slaughter one way or the other. Rare are the truly good games.

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9 hours ago, Navalpride33 said:

....................................

I would rather prefer you redo your stats but this time making sure the data is entered and collected correctly...

......................

What the heck are you talking about?  I recorded data individually for 200 matches and entered that data into my paper "spreadsheet".  I did this for 200 separate battles and used the difference in average team win rates in each of these battles per the MM Monitor data in order to give me a low standard deviation.  In what respect would you have me redo this testing method/data tracking method that is different than what I did?  Every single data point was used exactly as it come from MM Monitor and of course the win/loss data recorded from the match was pretty obvious....or do you think I didn't know which team won?????

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9 hours ago, Navalpride33 said:

The difference is your results will have a very high standard of deviation...

..................................

Hmm.....why?

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7 hours ago, El2aZeR said:
  Hide contents
WR my team WR enemy team Approx WR my team without me Current Enterprise WR Advantage enemy? Advantage enemy without me? Win/Loss?
64,88% 47,78% 60,88% 80,46% NO NO W
47,40% 49,67% 43,40% 80,48% YES YES W
53,08% 44,68% 49,08% 80,49% NO NO W
46,38% 51,15% 42,38% 80,51% YES YES W
52,76% 44,19% 48,76% 80,54% NO NO W
52,26% 47,19% 48,26% 80,56% NO NO W
54,40% 51.34% 50,40% 80,57% YES YES W
59,59% 56,64% 55,59% 80,59% NO YES W
52,78% 46,44% 48,78% 80,61% NO NO W
59,14% 49,17% 55,14% 80,64% NO NO W
45,00% 51,18% 41,00% 80,68% YES YES W
52,37% 54,44% 48,37% 80,70% YES YES W
49,55% 41,90% 45,55% 80,75% NO NO W
53,95% 56,37% 49,95% 80,76% YES YES W
61,61% 57,09% 57,61% 80,78% NO NO W
59,36% 52,63% 55,36% 80,79% NO NO W
51,89% 53,35% 47,89% 80,83% YES YES W
52,68% 46,65% 48,68% 80,84% NO NO W
49,25% 47,27% 45,25% 80,86% NO YES W
48,09% 46,63% 44,09% 80,87% NO YES W
53,86% 49,33% 49,86% 80,90% NO NO L
53,04% 48,81% 49,04% 80,84% NO NO W
53,71% 50,76% 49,71% 80,85% NO YES L
44,99% 47,74% 40,99% 80,79% YES YES W
57,36% 50,34% 53,36% 80,80% NO NO W
54,54% 50,13% 50,54% 80,82% NO NO W
55,79% 52,16% 51,79% 80,83% NO YES W
47,26% 46,18% 43,26% 80,85% NO YES L
54,23% 42,28% 50,23% 80,78% NO NO W
60,25% 41,81% 56,25% 80,80% NO NO W
50,35% 47,01% 46,35% 80,82% NO YES W
52,80% 49,65% 48,80% 80,83% NO YES W
55,21% 48,45% 51,21% 80,85% NO NO W
46,20% 52,41% 42,20% 80,86% YES YES W
54,02% 47,45% 50,02% 80,88% NO NO L
51,42% 51,09% 47,42% 80,81% NO YES W
55,00% 51,45% 51,00% 80,83% NO YES W
55,46% 46,63% 51,46% 80,84% NO NO W
53,82% 52,91% 49,82% 80,86% NO YES W
50,32% 39,51% 46,32% 80,87% NO NO L
50,05% 46,53% 46,05% 80,81% NO YES W
49,26% 48,30% 45,26% 80,82% NO YES W
45,82% 50,94% 41,82% 80,84% YES YES L
52,36% 52,12% 48,36% 80,78% NO YES W
54,78% 49,76% 50,78% 80,79% NO NO L
52,11% 49,13% 48,11% 80,73% NO YES W
42,28% 46,31% 38,28% 80,74% YES YES W
47,14% 46,22% 43,14% 80,76% NO YES W
46,23% 56,22% 42,23% 80,77% YES YES L
49,30% 43,02% 45,30% 80,71% NO NO W
47,01% 42,59% 43,01% 80,72% NO NO W
49,88% 46,33% 45,88% 80,74% NO YES W
52,47% 47,16% 48,47% 80,75% NO NO W
51,06% 55,27% 47,06% 80,77% YES YES L
59,85% 49,81% 55,85% 80,72% NO NO W
49,31% 49,31% 45,31% 80,74% NO YES W
47,18% 53,84% 43,18% 80,75% YES YES L
56,29% 43,50% 52,29% 80,69% NO NO W
62,12% 51,07% 58,12% 80,70% NO NO W
59,71% 43,35% 55,71% 80,72% NO NO W
52,37% 44,49% 48,37% 80,73% NO NO W
51,63% 53,16% 47,63% 80,75% YES YES W
50,67% 66,40% 46,67% 80,76% YES YES L
51,88% 48,75% 47,88% 80,70% NO YES W
58,36% 51,36% 54,36% 80,72% NO NO L
54,00% 54,82% 50,00% 80,65% YES YES W
51,28% 48,36% 47,28% 80,67% NO YES W
51,77% 47,35% 47,77% 80,68% NO NO W
55,38% 48,31% 51,38% 80,70% NO NO W
53,29% 50,21% 49,29% 80,71% NO YES W
44,40% 51,47% 40,40% 80,73% YES YES L
52,87% 50,07% 48,87% 80,67% NO YES L
51,81% 42,83% 47,81% 80,60% NO NO W
51,31% 42,94% 47,31% 80,62% NO NO L
51,08% 46,96% 47,08% 80,56% NO NO L
51,25% 48,42% 47,25% 80,49% NO YES W
46,45% 47,76% 42,45% 80,51% YES YES W
51,88% 51,53% 47,88% 80,52% NO YES W
51,32% 38,74% 47,32% 80,54% NO NO W
52,93% 52,14% 48,93% 80,55% NO YES W
47,77% 44,42% 43,77% 80,57% NO YES W
53,64% 50,15% 49,64% 80,58% NO YES W
58,11% 48,38% 54,11% 80,64% NO NO W
53,94% 58,21% 49,94% 80,66% YES YES L
62,09% 51,21% 58,09% 80,60% NO NO L
55,56% 46,69% 51,56% 80,53% NO NO W
48,65% 61,25% 44,65% 80,55% YES YES W
53,74% 50,44% 49,74% 80,56% NO YES W
49,33% 47,40% 45,33% 80,58% NO YES W
46,14% 52,50% 42,14% 80,59% YES YES W
51,27% 51,57% 47,27% 80,61% YES YES W
50,70% 55,95% 46,70% 80,62% YES YES W
53,76% 46,23% 49,76% 80,64% NO NO W
62,29% 49,97% 58,29% 80,65% NO NO W
58,16% 40,28% 54,16% 80,67% NO NO W
50,87% 48,84% 46,87% 80,68% NO YES L
54,94% 44,11% 50,94% 80,62% NO NO W
47,92% 55,95% 43,92% 80,64% YES YES L
48,91% 48,67% 44,91% 80,57% NO YES W
52,32% 50,57% 48,32% 80,59% NO YES L
53,19% 41,96% 49,19% 80,53% NO NO W
46,03% 54,35% 42,03% 80,54% YES YES W
53,57% 47,96% 49,57% 80,56% NO NO W
46,90% 54,05% 42,90% 80,57% YES YES W
44,84% 50,81% 40,84% 80,59% YES YES L
57,17% 44,97% 53,17% 80,53% NO NO W
46,00% 55,79% 42,00% 80,54% YES YES W
53,76% 55,71% 49,76% 80,56% YES YES W
49,76% 51,49% 45,76% 80,58% YES YES W
52,14% 48,76% 48,14% 80,60% NO YES W
43,27% 48,60% 39,27% 80,61% YES YES W
54,11% 49,64% 50,11% 80,63% NO NO W
55,84% 49,05% 51,84% 80,64% NO NO W
53,34% 45,58% 49,34% 80,67% NO NO W
54,92% 48,58% 50,92% 80,69% NO NO W
50,05% 51,22% 46,05% 80,70% YES YES W
52,49% 55,58% 48,49% 80,71% YES YES W
53,11% 46,06% 49,11% 80,73% NO NO W
52,55% 37,00% 48,55% 80,74% NO NO L
49,67% 48,40% 45,67% 80,68% NO YES W
51,07% 50,59% 47,07% 80,70% NO YES W
58,77% 51,75% 54,77% 80,71% NO NO W
48,73% 50,30% 44,73% 80,73% YES YES W
50,69% 43,39% 46,69% 80,74% NO NO W
50,09% 48,76% 46,09% 80,75% NO YES L
56,52% 45,06% 52,52% 80,70% NO NO W
47,30% 44,75% 43,30% 80,71% NO YES W
50,29% 47,80% 46,29% 80,72% NO YES L
50,31% 57,11% 46,31% 80,66% YES YES W
49,44% 51,26% 45,44% 80,68% YES YES W
41,98% 46,11% 37,98% 80,69% YES YES W
47,32% 43,40% 43,32% 80,71% NO YES W
39,06% 53,23% 35,06% 80,72% YES YES W
48,40% 51,59% 44,40% 80,74% YES YES W
52,65% 45,10% 48,65% 80,75% NO NO W
54,04% 45,64% 50,04% 80,76% NO NO W
55,55% 46,43% 51,55% 80,78% NO NO L
62,83% 53,77% 58,83% 80,72% NO NO W
57,97% 55,81% 53,97% 80,73% NO YES W
50,84% 44,97% 46,84% 80,75% NO NO W
52,56% 60,67% 48,56% 80,76% YES YES W
56,02% 50,19% 52,02% 80,77% NO NO W
56,31% 51,17% 52,31% 80,79% NO NO W
50,71% 49,72% 46,71% 80,82% NO YES W
54,68% 54,84% 50,68% 80,83% YES YES L
55,46% 43,82% 51,46% 80,77% NO NO W
50,21% 53,01% 46,21% 80,79% YES YES W
47,51% 53,85% 43,51% 80,80% YES YES W
58,23% 48,26% 54,23% 80,81% NO NO W
50,79% 46,70% 46,79% 80,83% NO NO W
48,05% 52,38% 44,05% 80,84% YES YES L
51,52% 46,83% 47,52% 80,78% NO NO W
50,12% 44,74% 46,12% 80,80% NO NO W
56,09% 42,92% 52,09% 80,81% NO NO W
49,34% 52,74% 45,34% 80,82% YES YES W
60,57% 53,68% 56,57% 80,84% NO NO W
48,37% 40,71% 44,37% 80,85% NO NO W
60,02% 49,61% 56,02% 80,87% NO NO W
57,38% 50,39% 53,38% 80,88% NO NO W
47,62% 43,82% 43,62% 80,89% NO YES W
47,31% 54,49% 43,31% 80,91% YES YES W
54,47% 46,29% 50,47% 80,89% NO NO W
45,28% 46,86% 41,28% 80,90% YES YES W
60,41% 46,10% 56,41% 80,92% NO NO W
54,95% 51,94% 50,95% 80,93% NO YES W
46,46% 42,92% 42,46% 80,95% NO YES W
49,21% 50,19% 45,21% 80,96% YES YES W
51,36% 35,74% 47,36% 80,99% NO NO W
56,66% 43,21% 52,66% 81,00% NO NO W
58,33% 47,06% 54,33% 81,01% NO NO W
43,39% 48,62% 39,39% 81,03% YES YES W
46,56% 48,76% 42,56% 81,16% YES YES W
49,62% 49,63% 45,62% 80,17% YES YES W
46,41% 49,83% 42,41% 81,19% YES YES W
52,11% 48,78% 48,11% 81,23% NO YES W
55,27% 55,37% 51,27% 81,28% YES YES W
52,87% 45,20% 48,87% 81,30% NO NO L
44,37% 42,15% 40,37% 81,25% NO YES W
51,00% 44,57% 47,00% 80,26% NO NO W
52,83% 31,37% 48,83% 81,27% NO NO W
47,21% 56,44% 43,21% 81,28% YES YES L
55,81% 49,66% 51,81% 81,23% NO NO W
44,80% 46,38% 40,80% 81,24% YES YES W
57,18% 49,94% 53,18% 81,18% NO NO W
54,39% 54,28% 50,39% 81,19% NO YES L
53,17% 48,64% 49,17% 81,14% NO NO W
49,31% 51,80% 45,31% 81,22% YES YES W
53,33% 52,42% 49,33% 81,23% NO YES W
54,11% 55,46% 50,11% 81,24% YES YES W
52,55% 44,14% 48,55% 81,25% NO NO W
44,95% 54,38% 40,95% 81,27% YES YES L
46,49% 41,13% 42,49% 81,21% NO NO W
55,71% 48,40% 51,71% 81,22% NO NO L
49,71% 49,38% 45,71% 81,17% NO YES W
50,53% 47,78% 46,53% 81,18% NO YES W
58,18% 47,59% 54,18% 81,19% NO NO W
50,32% 49,74% 46,32% 81,21% NO YES W
49,68% 54,73% 45,68% 81,22% YES YES L
44,69% 51,88% 40,69% 81,16% YES YES L
54,02% 47,03% 50,02% 81,11% NO NO W
44,29% 45,96% 40,29% 81,12% YES YES W
52,69% 54,66% 48,69% 81,15% YES YES W
56,67% 53,24% 52,67% 81,16% NO YES W
49,24% 52,90% 45,24% 81,19% YES YES W
53,66% 46,17% 49,66% 81,30% NO NO W
52,80% 44,21% 48,80% 81,33% NO NO W
58,64% 44,83% 54,64% 81,32% NO NO W
60,61% 50,78% 56,61% 81,36% NO NO L
61,58% 43,66% 57,58% 81,30% NO NO W
55,21% 49,04% 51,21% 81,32% NO NO W
59,94% 52,91% 55,94% 81,33% NO NO W
59,95% 47,86% 55,95% 81,34% NO NO W
55,77% 47,81% 51,77% 81,35% NO NO W
54,95% 52,21% 50,95% 81,37% NO YES W
55,53% 48,62% 51,53% 81,38% NO NO W
59,03% 48,42% 55,03% 81,39% NO NO W
56,50% 48,90% 52,50% 81,40% NO NO W
61,90% 51,27% 57,90% 81,41% NO NO W
56,12% 50,58% 52,12% 81,42% NO NO W
55,15% 52,54% 51,15% 81,44% NO YES W
58,05% 46,95% 54,05% 81,45% NO NO W
58,29% 51,44% 54,29% 81,46% NO NO L
57,84% 50,88% 53,84% 81,41% NO NO W
58,29% 52,05% 54,29% 81,42% NO NO W
53,34% 51,48% 49,34% 81,43% NO YES L
57,70% 52,41% 53,70% 81,38% NO NO W
57,00% 50,50% 53,00% 81,39% NO NO W
54,39% 49,58% 50,39% 81,40% NO NO L
56,81% 48,71% 52,81% 81,35% NO NO W
61,63% 49,31% 57,63% 81,36% NO NO W
54,21% 52,30% 50,21% 81,37% NO YES W
58,51% 47,05% 54,51% 81,39% NO NO L
56,41% 49,05% 52,41% 81,33% NO NO W
59,68% 49,30% 55,68% 81,34% NO NO W
56,43% 51,18% 52,43% 81,36% NO NO W
55,71% 48,83% 51,71% 81,37% NO NO W
52,96% 44,21% 48,96% 81,38% NO NO W
52,22% 50,51% 48,22% 81,39% NO YES L
54,14% 51,27% 50,14% 81,34% NO YES L
50,43% 49,21% 46,43% 81,29% NO YES W
52,99% 47,12% 48,99% 81,30% NO NO W
56,01% 50,82% 52,01% 81,31% NO NO W
Forgot to record one here fug L
54,79% 49,27% 50,79% 81,27% NO NO W
59,17% 48,23% 55,17% 81,28% NO NO W
57,76% 48,36% 53,76% 81,29% NO NO W
52,65% 48,67% 48,65% 81,31% NO YES L
56,52% 48,60% 52,52% 81,25% NO NO W
50,65% 51,72% 46,65% 81,27% YES YES L
58,69% 47,70% 54,69% 81,21% NO NO L
53,85% 52,04% 49,85% 81,17% NO YES L
52,67% 48,33% 48,67% 81,11% NO NO W
60,33% 50,47% 56,33% 81,12% NO NO W
56,60% 47,07% 52,60% 81,13% NO NO W
57,90% 54,82% 53,90% 81,14% NO YES L
56,23% 52,70% 52,23% 81,09% NO YES W
58,91% 53,64% 54,91% 81,10% NO NO W
59,36% 50,11% 55,36% 81,12% NO NO W
54,55% 47,76% 50,55% 81,13% NO NO W
50,52% 48,76% 46,52% 81,14% NO YES W
50,78% 49,63% 46,78% 81,20% NO YES W
53,04% 45,75% 49,04% 81,21% NO NO W
51,35% 49,60% 47,35% 81,25% NO YES W
54,51% 50,06% 50,51% 81,26% NO NO W
50,21% 50,41% 46,21% 81,27% YES YES L
48,44% 49,96% 44,44% 81,22% YES YES L
52,81% 50,37% 48,81% 81,17% NO YES W
51,69% 48,43% 47,69% 81,18% NO YES W
50,97% 48,15% 46,97% 81,19% NO YES W
48,70% 48,12% 44,70% 81,21% NO YES W
51,24% 48,68% 47,24% 81,22% NO YES W
53,72% 50,41% 49,72% 81,23% NO YES L
53,15% 47,94% 49,15% 81,18% NO NO W
52,83% 50,33% 48,83% 81,19% NO YES W
50,38% 51,65% 46,38% 81,20% YES YES W
51,02% 50,11% 47,02% 81,21% NO YES W
52,27% 50,60% 48,27% 81,23% NO YES W
51,07% 48,96% 47,07% 81,24% NO YES W
53,86% 51,57% 49,86% 81,25% NO YES W
50,29% 49,00% 46,29% 81,26% NO YES L
52,12% 48,41% 48,12% 81,21% NO YES W
53,99% 46,35% 49,99% 81,22% NO NO W
51,13% 48,36% 47,13% 81,23% NO YES W
54,47% 49,46% 50,47% 81,27% NO NO W
51,29% 49,84% 47,29% 81,30% NO YES W
55,43% 46,81% 51,43% 81,31% NO NO W
51,21% 47,58% 47,21% 81,32% NO YES W
53,11% 49,97% 49,11% 81,34% NO YES W
47,45% 50,22% 43,45% 81,35% YES YES W

Dont mind me @El2aZeR Just using your post as reference to state a point...

@Merc85, This ^^^is what I am talking about, El2azer Did it right.... He put in the numbers, its recorded, its organized, standard deviation is from what I can see very low.. He created the parameters, he made sure the variables were inputted correctly... Not only that, IMO its a good starting population size for his stats...

Now I can go in and further expand on his work/double check his work... Using his set parameters I can use his work as the variable VS my control...

That is what I trying to say as to why I was disappointed....

See the difference????

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7 hours ago, El2aZeR said:

I did something similar a while back. You can find the raw data below:

  Reveal hidden contents
WR my team WR enemy team Approx WR my team without me Current Enterprise WR Advantage enemy? Advantage enemy without me? Win/Loss?
64,88% 47,78% 60,88% 80,46% NO NO W
47,40% 49,67% 43,40% 80,48% YES YES W
53,08% 44,68% 49,08% 80,49% NO NO W
46,38% 51,15% 42,38% 80,51% YES YES W
52,76% 44,19% 48,76% 80,54% NO NO W
52,26% 47,19% 48,26% 80,56% NO NO W
54,40% 51.34% 50,40% 80,57% YES YES W
59,59% 56,64% 55,59% 80,59% NO YES W
52,78% 46,44% 48,78% 80,61% NO NO W
59,14% 49,17% 55,14% 80,64% NO NO W
45,00% 51,18% 41,00% 80,68% YES YES W
52,37% 54,44% 48,37% 80,70% YES YES W
49,55% 41,90% 45,55% 80,75% NO NO W
53,95% 56,37% 49,95% 80,76% YES YES W
61,61% 57,09% 57,61% 80,78% NO NO W
59,36% 52,63% 55,36% 80,79% NO NO W
51,89% 53,35% 47,89% 80,83% YES YES W
52,68% 46,65% 48,68% 80,84% NO NO W
49,25% 47,27% 45,25% 80,86% NO YES W
48,09% 46,63% 44,09% 80,87% NO YES W
53,86% 49,33% 49,86% 80,90% NO NO L
53,04% 48,81% 49,04% 80,84% NO NO W
53,71% 50,76% 49,71% 80,85% NO YES L
44,99% 47,74% 40,99% 80,79% YES YES W
57,36% 50,34% 53,36% 80,80% NO NO W
54,54% 50,13% 50,54% 80,82% NO NO W
55,79% 52,16% 51,79% 80,83% NO YES W
47,26% 46,18% 43,26% 80,85% NO YES L
54,23% 42,28% 50,23% 80,78% NO NO W
60,25% 41,81% 56,25% 80,80% NO NO W
50,35% 47,01% 46,35% 80,82% NO YES W
52,80% 49,65% 48,80% 80,83% NO YES W
55,21% 48,45% 51,21% 80,85% NO NO W
46,20% 52,41% 42,20% 80,86% YES YES W
54,02% 47,45% 50,02% 80,88% NO NO L
51,42% 51,09% 47,42% 80,81% NO YES W
55,00% 51,45% 51,00% 80,83% NO YES W
55,46% 46,63% 51,46% 80,84% NO NO W
53,82% 52,91% 49,82% 80,86% NO YES W
50,32% 39,51% 46,32% 80,87% NO NO L
50,05% 46,53% 46,05% 80,81% NO YES W
49,26% 48,30% 45,26% 80,82% NO YES W
45,82% 50,94% 41,82% 80,84% YES YES L
52,36% 52,12% 48,36% 80,78% NO YES W
54,78% 49,76% 50,78% 80,79% NO NO L
52,11% 49,13% 48,11% 80,73% NO YES W
42,28% 46,31% 38,28% 80,74% YES YES W
47,14% 46,22% 43,14% 80,76% NO YES W
46,23% 56,22% 42,23% 80,77% YES YES L
49,30% 43,02% 45,30% 80,71% NO NO W
47,01% 42,59% 43,01% 80,72% NO NO W
49,88% 46,33% 45,88% 80,74% NO YES W
52,47% 47,16% 48,47% 80,75% NO NO W
51,06% 55,27% 47,06% 80,77% YES YES L
59,85% 49,81% 55,85% 80,72% NO NO W
49,31% 49,31% 45,31% 80,74% NO YES W
47,18% 53,84% 43,18% 80,75% YES YES L
56,29% 43,50% 52,29% 80,69% NO NO W
62,12% 51,07% 58,12% 80,70% NO NO W
59,71% 43,35% 55,71% 80,72% NO NO W
52,37% 44,49% 48,37% 80,73% NO NO W
51,63% 53,16% 47,63% 80,75% YES YES W
50,67% 66,40% 46,67% 80,76% YES YES L
51,88% 48,75% 47,88% 80,70% NO YES W
58,36% 51,36% 54,36% 80,72% NO NO L
54,00% 54,82% 50,00% 80,65% YES YES W
51,28% 48,36% 47,28% 80,67% NO YES W
51,77% 47,35% 47,77% 80,68% NO NO W
55,38% 48,31% 51,38% 80,70% NO NO W
53,29% 50,21% 49,29% 80,71% NO YES W
44,40% 51,47% 40,40% 80,73% YES YES L
52,87% 50,07% 48,87% 80,67% NO YES L
51,81% 42,83% 47,81% 80,60% NO NO W
51,31% 42,94% 47,31% 80,62% NO NO L
51,08% 46,96% 47,08% 80,56% NO NO L
51,25% 48,42% 47,25% 80,49% NO YES W
46,45% 47,76% 42,45% 80,51% YES YES W
51,88% 51,53% 47,88% 80,52% NO YES W
51,32% 38,74% 47,32% 80,54% NO NO W
52,93% 52,14% 48,93% 80,55% NO YES W
47,77% 44,42% 43,77% 80,57% NO YES W
53,64% 50,15% 49,64% 80,58% NO YES W
58,11% 48,38% 54,11% 80,64% NO NO W
53,94% 58,21% 49,94% 80,66% YES YES L
62,09% 51,21% 58,09% 80,60% NO NO L
55,56% 46,69% 51,56% 80,53% NO NO W
48,65% 61,25% 44,65% 80,55% YES YES W
53,74% 50,44% 49,74% 80,56% NO YES W
49,33% 47,40% 45,33% 80,58% NO YES W
46,14% 52,50% 42,14% 80,59% YES YES W
51,27% 51,57% 47,27% 80,61% YES YES W
50,70% 55,95% 46,70% 80,62% YES YES W
53,76% 46,23% 49,76% 80,64% NO NO W
62,29% 49,97% 58,29% 80,65% NO NO W
58,16% 40,28% 54,16% 80,67% NO NO W
50,87% 48,84% 46,87% 80,68% NO YES L
54,94% 44,11% 50,94% 80,62% NO NO W
47,92% 55,95% 43,92% 80,64% YES YES L
48,91% 48,67% 44,91% 80,57% NO YES W
52,32% 50,57% 48,32% 80,59% NO YES L
53,19% 41,96% 49,19% 80,53% NO NO W
46,03% 54,35% 42,03% 80,54% YES YES W
53,57% 47,96% 49,57% 80,56% NO NO W
46,90% 54,05% 42,90% 80,57% YES YES W
44,84% 50,81% 40,84% 80,59% YES YES L
57,17% 44,97% 53,17% 80,53% NO NO W
46,00% 55,79% 42,00% 80,54% YES YES W
53,76% 55,71% 49,76% 80,56% YES YES W
49,76% 51,49% 45,76% 80,58% YES YES W
52,14% 48,76% 48,14% 80,60% NO YES W
43,27% 48,60% 39,27% 80,61% YES YES W
54,11% 49,64% 50,11% 80,63% NO NO W
55,84% 49,05% 51,84% 80,64% NO NO W
53,34% 45,58% 49,34% 80,67% NO NO W
54,92% 48,58% 50,92% 80,69% NO NO W
50,05% 51,22% 46,05% 80,70% YES YES W
52,49% 55,58% 48,49% 80,71% YES YES W
53,11% 46,06% 49,11% 80,73% NO NO W
52,55% 37,00% 48,55% 80,74% NO NO L
49,67% 48,40% 45,67% 80,68% NO YES W
51,07% 50,59% 47,07% 80,70% NO YES W
58,77% 51,75% 54,77% 80,71% NO NO W
48,73% 50,30% 44,73% 80,73% YES YES W
50,69% 43,39% 46,69% 80,74% NO NO W
50,09% 48,76% 46,09% 80,75% NO YES L
56,52% 45,06% 52,52% 80,70% NO NO W
47,30% 44,75% 43,30% 80,71% NO YES W
50,29% 47,80% 46,29% 80,72% NO YES L
50,31% 57,11% 46,31% 80,66% YES YES W
49,44% 51,26% 45,44% 80,68% YES YES W
41,98% 46,11% 37,98% 80,69% YES YES W
47,32% 43,40% 43,32% 80,71% NO YES W
39,06% 53,23% 35,06% 80,72% YES YES W
48,40% 51,59% 44,40% 80,74% YES YES W
52,65% 45,10% 48,65% 80,75% NO NO W
54,04% 45,64% 50,04% 80,76% NO NO W
55,55% 46,43% 51,55% 80,78% NO NO L
62,83% 53,77% 58,83% 80,72% NO NO W
57,97% 55,81% 53,97% 80,73% NO YES W
50,84% 44,97% 46,84% 80,75% NO NO W
52,56% 60,67% 48,56% 80,76% YES YES W
56,02% 50,19% 52,02% 80,77% NO NO W
56,31% 51,17% 52,31% 80,79% NO NO W
50,71% 49,72% 46,71% 80,82% NO YES W
54,68% 54,84% 50,68% 80,83% YES YES L
55,46% 43,82% 51,46% 80,77% NO NO W
50,21% 53,01% 46,21% 80,79% YES YES W
47,51% 53,85% 43,51% 80,80% YES YES W
58,23% 48,26% 54,23% 80,81% NO NO W
50,79% 46,70% 46,79% 80,83% NO NO W
48,05% 52,38% 44,05% 80,84% YES YES L
51,52% 46,83% 47,52% 80,78% NO NO W
50,12% 44,74% 46,12% 80,80% NO NO W
56,09% 42,92% 52,09% 80,81% NO NO W
49,34% 52,74% 45,34% 80,82% YES YES W
60,57% 53,68% 56,57% 80,84% NO NO W
48,37% 40,71% 44,37% 80,85% NO NO W
60,02% 49,61% 56,02% 80,87% NO NO W
57,38% 50,39% 53,38% 80,88% NO NO W
47,62% 43,82% 43,62% 80,89% NO YES W
47,31% 54,49% 43,31% 80,91% YES YES W
54,47% 46,29% 50,47% 80,89% NO NO W
45,28% 46,86% 41,28% 80,90% YES YES W
60,41% 46,10% 56,41% 80,92% NO NO W
54,95% 51,94% 50,95% 80,93% NO YES W
46,46% 42,92% 42,46% 80,95% NO YES W
49,21% 50,19% 45,21% 80,96% YES YES W
51,36% 35,74% 47,36% 80,99% NO NO W
56,66% 43,21% 52,66% 81,00% NO NO W
58,33% 47,06% 54,33% 81,01% NO NO W
43,39% 48,62% 39,39% 81,03% YES YES W
46,56% 48,76% 42,56% 81,16% YES YES W
49,62% 49,63% 45,62% 80,17% YES YES W
46,41% 49,83% 42,41% 81,19% YES YES W
52,11% 48,78% 48,11% 81,23% NO YES W
55,27% 55,37% 51,27% 81,28% YES YES W
52,87% 45,20% 48,87% 81,30% NO NO L
44,37% 42,15% 40,37% 81,25% NO YES W
51,00% 44,57% 47,00% 80,26% NO NO W
52,83% 31,37% 48,83% 81,27% NO NO W
47,21% 56,44% 43,21% 81,28% YES YES L
55,81% 49,66% 51,81% 81,23% NO NO W
44,80% 46,38% 40,80% 81,24% YES YES W
57,18% 49,94% 53,18% 81,18% NO NO W
54,39% 54,28% 50,39% 81,19% NO YES L
53,17% 48,64% 49,17% 81,14% NO NO W
49,31% 51,80% 45,31% 81,22% YES YES W
53,33% 52,42% 49,33% 81,23% NO YES W
54,11% 55,46% 50,11% 81,24% YES YES W
52,55% 44,14% 48,55% 81,25% NO NO W
44,95% 54,38% 40,95% 81,27% YES YES L
46,49% 41,13% 42,49% 81,21% NO NO W
55,71% 48,40% 51,71% 81,22% NO NO L
49,71% 49,38% 45,71% 81,17% NO YES W
50,53% 47,78% 46,53% 81,18% NO YES W
58,18% 47,59% 54,18% 81,19% NO NO W
50,32% 49,74% 46,32% 81,21% NO YES W
49,68% 54,73% 45,68% 81,22% YES YES L
44,69% 51,88% 40,69% 81,16% YES YES L
54,02% 47,03% 50,02% 81,11% NO NO W
44,29% 45,96% 40,29% 81,12% YES YES W
52,69% 54,66% 48,69% 81,15% YES YES W
56,67% 53,24% 52,67% 81,16% NO YES W
49,24% 52,90% 45,24% 81,19% YES YES W
53,66% 46,17% 49,66% 81,30% NO NO W
52,80% 44,21% 48,80% 81,33% NO NO W
58,64% 44,83% 54,64% 81,32% NO NO W
60,61% 50,78% 56,61% 81,36% NO NO L
61,58% 43,66% 57,58% 81,30% NO NO W
55,21% 49,04% 51,21% 81,32% NO NO W
59,94% 52,91% 55,94% 81,33% NO NO W
59,95% 47,86% 55,95% 81,34% NO NO W
55,77% 47,81% 51,77% 81,35% NO NO W
54,95% 52,21% 50,95% 81,37% NO YES W
55,53% 48,62% 51,53% 81,38% NO NO W
59,03% 48,42% 55,03% 81,39% NO NO W
56,50% 48,90% 52,50% 81,40% NO NO W
61,90% 51,27% 57,90% 81,41% NO NO W
56,12% 50,58% 52,12% 81,42% NO NO W
55,15% 52,54% 51,15% 81,44% NO YES W
58,05% 46,95% 54,05% 81,45% NO NO W
58,29% 51,44% 54,29% 81,46% NO NO L
57,84% 50,88% 53,84% 81,41% NO NO W
58,29% 52,05% 54,29% 81,42% NO NO W
53,34% 51,48% 49,34% 81,43% NO YES L
57,70% 52,41% 53,70% 81,38% NO NO W
57,00% 50,50% 53,00% 81,39% NO NO W
54,39% 49,58% 50,39% 81,40% NO NO L
56,81% 48,71% 52,81% 81,35% NO NO W
61,63% 49,31% 57,63% 81,36% NO NO W
54,21% 52,30% 50,21% 81,37% NO YES W
58,51% 47,05% 54,51% 81,39% NO NO L
56,41% 49,05% 52,41% 81,33% NO NO W
59,68% 49,30% 55,68% 81,34% NO NO W
56,43% 51,18% 52,43% 81,36% NO NO W
55,71% 48,83% 51,71% 81,37% NO NO W
52,96% 44,21% 48,96% 81,38% NO NO W
52,22% 50,51% 48,22% 81,39% NO YES L
54,14% 51,27% 50,14% 81,34% NO YES L
50,43% 49,21% 46,43% 81,29% NO YES W
52,99% 47,12% 48,99% 81,30% NO NO W
56,01% 50,82% 52,01% 81,31% NO NO W
Forgot to record one here fug L
54,79% 49,27% 50,79% 81,27% NO NO W
59,17% 48,23% 55,17% 81,28% NO NO W
57,76% 48,36% 53,76% 81,29% NO NO W
52,65% 48,67% 48,65% 81,31% NO YES L
56,52% 48,60% 52,52% 81,25% NO NO W
50,65% 51,72% 46,65% 81,27% YES YES L
58,69% 47,70% 54,69% 81,21% NO NO L
53,85% 52,04% 49,85% 81,17% NO YES L
52,67% 48,33% 48,67% 81,11% NO NO W
60,33% 50,47% 56,33% 81,12% NO NO W
56,60% 47,07% 52,60% 81,13% NO NO W
57,90% 54,82% 53,90% 81,14% NO YES L
56,23% 52,70% 52,23% 81,09% NO YES W
58,91% 53,64% 54,91% 81,10% NO NO W
59,36% 50,11% 55,36% 81,12% NO NO W
54,55% 47,76% 50,55% 81,13% NO NO W
50,52% 48,76% 46,52% 81,14% NO YES W
50,78% 49,63% 46,78% 81,20% NO YES W
53,04% 45,75% 49,04% 81,21% NO NO W
51,35% 49,60% 47,35% 81,25% NO YES W
54,51% 50,06% 50,51% 81,26% NO NO W
50,21% 50,41% 46,21% 81,27% YES YES L
48,44% 49,96% 44,44% 81,22% YES YES L
52,81% 50,37% 48,81% 81,17% NO YES W
51,69% 48,43% 47,69% 81,18% NO YES W
50,97% 48,15% 46,97% 81,19% NO YES W
48,70% 48,12% 44,70% 81,21% NO YES W
51,24% 48,68% 47,24% 81,22% NO YES W
53,72% 50,41% 49,72% 81,23% NO YES L
53,15% 47,94% 49,15% 81,18% NO NO W
52,83% 50,33% 48,83% 81,19% NO YES W
50,38% 51,65% 46,38% 81,20% YES YES W
51,02% 50,11% 47,02% 81,21% NO YES W
52,27% 50,60% 48,27% 81,23% NO YES W
51,07% 48,96% 47,07% 81,24% NO YES W
53,86% 51,57% 49,86% 81,25% NO YES W
50,29% 49,00% 46,29% 81,26% NO YES L
52,12% 48,41% 48,12% 81,21% NO YES W
53,99% 46,35% 49,99% 81,22% NO NO W
51,13% 48,36% 47,13% 81,23% NO YES W
54,47% 49,46% 50,47% 81,27% NO NO W
51,29% 49,84% 47,29% 81,30% NO YES W
55,43% 46,81% 51,43% 81,31% NO NO W
51,21% 47,58% 47,21% 81,32% NO YES W
53,11% 49,97% 49,11% 81,34% NO YES W
47,45% 50,22% 43,45% 81,35% YES YES W

es

With me calculated in my team had the advantage 219 times while the enemy had the advantage 69 times. Again tho, this is expected what with me sitting at a high WR and doesn't mean MM loves me or anything.
Without me calculated in my team had the advantage 136 times while the enemy had the advantage 152 times. As such one can see that the chance of one getting better teammates over their opponents or not roughly normalizes towards 50%. This is precisely what data should show if MM was completely random as WG says it is.

So yeah, the next time you're on a losing streak, know that either you're being unlucky or it is actually your own fault.

Interesting.  The biggest difference I see in what we did is that you used an incredibly powerful ship in every battle piloted by a super unicom captain.  I used a large number of different ships.  Given the impact on your super super unicom capabilities in that ship I don't see any surprises in what you found.   When you adjusted for your win rate you used that specific ship to adjust.  When I answered the question from Wernerherzdog about the impact of my win rate on the differences, I used my overall average win rate to answer him, not the win rate of the specific ship I was using in each battle.

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3 minutes ago, Navalpride33 said:

Dont mind me @El2aZeR Just using your post as reference to state a point...

@Merc85, This ^^^is what I am talking about, El2azer Did it right.... He put in the numbers, its recorded, its organized, standard deviation is from what I can see very low.. He created the parameters, he made sure the variables were inputted correctly... Not only that, IMO its a good starting population size for his stats...

Now I can go in and further expand on his work/double check his work... Using his set parameters I can use his work as the variable VS my control...

That is what I trying to say as to why I was disappointed....

See the difference????

I have that data too on a sheet of paper and when I asked if you wanted to see it you said no.  What the heck man?? 

So now I guess you do want to see it.  When I get a chance I can type in all 200 data points from those matches just for you.

  • Cool 1

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Thank you Merc. I, for one, appreciate your work. And agree with your conclusions.

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5 minutes ago, Merc85 said:

I have that data too on a sheet of paper and when I asked if you wanted to see it you said no.  What the heck man?? 

So now I guess you do want to see it.  When I get a chance I can type in all 200 data points from those matches just for you.

How about starting over? Do what El2azer did... This time record it properly...

Like I said, its your opinion when non of us can reproduce or expand on the conclusion...

GL...

Edited by Navalpride33
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