Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
You need to play a total of 20 battles to post in this section.
DuckyShot

Insta loss games with "random" MM

24 comments in this topic

Recommended Posts

7,118
Members
6,858 posts
15,350 battles

Are you able to influence your games and therefore your winrate?? Or are all of your games predetermined by the matchmaker? Does a player have any chance of influencing a battle. 

Short answer is yes, each player influences every battle they are in. If you don't believe this, then I have one question to ask of you. How few of players would there have to be on a team for a player to influence their winrate? 

Obviously the factor a player can play decreases the more players on a team. LeBron James in his prime should have been able to beat anyone in the league 1v1. Throw him on team and that team instantly got better, but obviously not unbeatable. So how much influence does a player have in 12v12 games. That is what we will explore here. 

MM is random within certain parameters and over large sample sizes things will be averaged out. We want to find how many battles a player is able to influence and how many that mm will set up in a large sample size that will be auto losses and auto wins. 

I looked at players at both ends of the spectrum. I can only use solo win rate as a factor, div win rate influences the battles way too much. However I needed to find players that had played across all tiers. I found many players with huge win rates that had the majority of their games below tier 4, this is highly skewed as a lot of those battles do not show the true average player base. I finally found a player that has played across all tiers and had over 1k solo games: @DolphinPrincess. He has a solo win rate of 69.84%.

So I needed to find a corroboration on the opposite end of the scale. However I kept running into the same problem, too many players (possibly bots) that didn't play across all tiers. Again, a lot of low tier games. However I finally stumbled across an account that I could use for analysis. It was an account that had roughly 900 solo games in all tiers of rts cvs. It looked like a bot account. Highest average damage was 1200, iirc. So this is an account that was basically afk throughout all tiers. It's win rate was 31.51%.

If we take the best solo win rate (with a decent sample size) that I could find across all tiers and add it to the worst solo win rate (with decent sample size) I could find and add them together we get 101.35. 1.35% away from 100. So these 2 numbers check out against each other.

If we split the difference between these 2, mm sets up games that are auto wins/losses (depending which side you are on) 30.84% of the time. Because you will be evenly spread on either side of the win or loss across all of your battles, this means that 61.68% of your games are predetermined. A full 38.32% of your games are influenceable by you. 

TLDR: 30.84% of your games are auto losses. 30.84% of your games are auto wins. 38.32% are up to how well you play. That is a huge number of games that a skilled player can swing their way or a unskilled player throw away. 

Edited by Ducky_shot
  • Cool 4
  • Boring 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32,543
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
24,145 posts
18,994 battles

Thing is though, you're asking for people to self-reflect and take responsibility. Don't you know you're on the WoWS forum?

  • Funny 3
  • Boring 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,275
[TMS]
Beta Testers
3,731 posts
14,321 battles

But who really cares, as most tell me when they throw their ship away "they're just having fun" or "relax its just a game"

You should look at it, if you played 10 games in a BB and drive str8 into the cap closest to you, what would be your wr be, you have all the chance in the world of it being a win or a loss.

Stats mean nothing to most people, people who thrive on stats, meh, get a life, but stats used for self improvement, thats about yourself and its cool, those who seek to advertise theirs are merely vain, and other words.

As far as influencing games, nah, to many unicums are simply out to pad their stats and let others die for them in doing so, those are games I would rather lose.

  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7,118
Members
6,858 posts
15,350 battles
6 minutes ago, Lert said:

Thing is though, you're asking for people to self-reflect and take responsibility. Don't you know you're on the WoWS forum?

You missed the part where I asked them to understand math. 

Wait, nm, your comment is still relevant

Edited by Ducky_shot
  • Funny 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5,799
[WORX]
Members
10,648 posts
18,555 battles

According to math, my WR is in the %90 percentile of the server population across all regions...

With the many battles I have... The standard of deviation in changing my WR from were it is now. Its nearly zero without changing the rules of the games drastically.

Nothing is automatic until the game is played... Then its either a sure win OR loss.

If you get a draw, then you should play the lottery..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
Guest
0 posts
10 minutes ago, Lert said:

Thing is though, you're asking for people to self-reflect and take responsibility. Don't you know you're on the WoWS forum?

cynic/

Besides, if I understand OP correctly, 30% of battles are automatic losses, therefore if a player is capable of determining this, they will not play to win, but to farm PR and XP. But then again, according to certain definitions of a game, an uncertain outcome is a requisite element, if the outcome can be determined, we are no longer in a game.
 

7 minutes ago, CriMiNaL__ said:

"relax its just a game"

I hate this phrase. The people who use it are those who are least interested in the philosophy of a team based game, and who have minimal respect for both their team mates and the reds. 

2 minutes ago, Navalpride33 said:

If you get a draw, then you should play the lottery..

I should be a millionaire/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
989
[RKLES]
Members
807 posts

I believe that a good percentage of the players enter a match without a desire to win.  They just want to sail a ship around and shoot some shells.

Stats stopped being important to me in this game a long time ago.

Now I am just trying to having fun (Minus CV's but that is a different discussion)

 

Edited by Learux

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32,543
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
24,145 posts
18,994 battles
4 minutes ago, LoveBote said:

cynic

Realist.

  • Cool 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
115
[BBQ]
Beta Testers
202 posts
8 minutes ago, LoveBote said:

I hate this phrase. The people who use it are those who are least interested in the philosophy of a team based game, and who have minimal respect for both their team mates and the reds.

 

And yet this is still a game. In Random battles you get what you get. For true team based play the only spot is Clan Battles as at least the percentage of people who play as a team is much higher. I get it. I wish Random battles were more team oriented yet you can't force people to play a certain way in Random battles. It is what it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32,543
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
24,145 posts
18,994 battles
11 minutes ago, Bguk said:

And yet this is still a game.

It is, and I wish people would stop taking it so seriously.

However, I also wish people would stop parroting that phrase as an excuse for crappy and stupid behavior.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
460
[KMS]
[KMS]
Beta Testers, In AlfaTesters
3,553 posts
11,742 battles
56 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

Are you able to influence your games and therefore your winrate?? Or are all of your games predetermined by the matchmaker? Does a player have any chance of influencing a battle. 

Short answer is yes, each player influences every battle they are in. If you don't believe this, then I have one question to ask of you. How few of players would there have to be on a team for a player to influence their winrate? 

Obviously the factor a player can play decreases the more players on a team. LeBron James in his prime should have been able to beat anyone in the league 1v1. Throw him on team and that team instantly got better, but obviously not unbeatable. So how much influence does a player have in 12v12 games. That is what we will explore here. 

MM is random within certain parameters and over large sample sizes things will be averaged out. We want to find how many battles a player is able to influence and how many that mm will set up in a large sample size that will be auto losses and auto wins. 

I looked at players at both ends of the spectrum. I can only use solo win rate as a factor, div win rate influences the battles way too much. However I needed to find players that had played across all tiers. I found many players with huge win rates that had the majority of their games below tier 4, this is highly skewed as a lot of those battles do not show the true average player base. I finally found a player that has played across all tiers and had over 1k solo games: @DolphinPrincess. He has a solo win rate of 69.84%.

So I needed to find a corroboration on the opposite end of the scale. However I kept running into the same problem, too many players (possibly bots) that didn't play across all tiers. Again, a lot of low tier games. However I finally stumbled across an account that I could use for analysis. It was an account that had roughly 900 solo games in all tiers of rts cvs. It looked like a bot account. Highest average damage was 1200, iirc. So this is an account that was basically afk throughout all tiers. It's win rate was 31.51%.

If we take the best solo win rate (with a decent sample size) that I could find across all tiers and add it to the worst solo win rate (with decent sample size) I could find and add them together we get 101.35. 1.35% away from 100. So these 2 numbers check out against each other.

If we split the difference between these 2, mm sets up games that are auto wins/losses (depending which side you are on) 30.84% of the time. Because you will be evenly spread on either side of the win or loss across all of your battles, this means that 61.68% of your games are predetermined. A full 38.32% of your games are influenceable by you. 

TLDR: 30.84% of your games are auto losses. 30.84% of your games are auto wins. 38.32% are up to how well you play. That is a huge number of games that a skilled player can swing their way or a unskilled player throw away. 

Lost me with Lebron....  Jordan made teams better... and played defense.  Dolphin Princess is played by two different people. He/she sold his account.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
115
[BBQ]
Beta Testers
202 posts
7 minutes ago, Lert said:

It is, and I wish people would stop taking it so seriously.

However, I also wish people would stop parroting that phrase as an excuse for crappy and stupid behavior.

 

I get it. I wish I had a million dollars and my house was paid off. You mentioned it earlier, you're a realist. Players will play great or poor based on their idea of what playing a game is. Can't fix poor play (legally) for all players. The one bad apple and all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5,450
[WOLFG]
Members
29,043 posts
8,295 battles

I definitely want to win, (even though losses are ok too, assuming I don't go full potato) my problem is that I don't really know how, other than broad strokes, until things shake out enough that it slaps me in the face lol.

I mean, I can see what needs to be done, and I can go help when I see where I can be useful, but then I get going, and people start doing inexplicable things, and I'm back to square one.

  • Cool 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
Guest
0 posts
2 minutes ago, Nachoo31 said:

  Dolphin Princess is played by two different people. He sold his account.

if this were true, then wouldn't it be accurate to say, that they have a solo win rate of 69.84%?:Smile_hiding:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32,543
[HINON]
Alpha Tester
24,145 posts
18,994 battles
Just now, Bguk said:

Players will play great or poor based on their idea of what playing a game is.

Yup.

I'm not asking for a team of unicums or everyone on my team to spend hours pouring over wikis and youtube videos explaining little in-depth mechanics. All I'm asking for is a modicum of effort. Doesn't matter to me if you're a 40%-er or a 65%-er, as long as you make a conscious effort instead of blindly throwing your ship away you're ok in my book.

But the worst is people that blindly or even purposely throw their ship away without trying and then spend the rest of the match whining.

  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
690
[NGA]
Members
1,984 posts
11,768 battles
52 minutes ago, LoveBote said:

I hate this phrase. The people who use it are those who are least interested in the philosophy of a team based game, and who have minimal respect for both their team mates and the reds. 

Pretty much. I can understand saying it if someone is going ballistic in chat, but don't do it after yolo-ing or some crap like that. You want to have that attitude, play in co-op. And so help me God if you say that in Ranked. The point of Ranked is that it's competitive, meaning you're supposed to be trying as hard as you can and not just derping around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,573
[1984]
Members
4,128 posts
19,944 battles
1 hour ago, JediMasterDraco said:

Pretty much. I can understand saying it if someone is going ballistic in chat, but don't do it after yolo-ing or some crap like that. You want to have that attitude, play in co-op. And so help me God if you say that in Ranked. The point of Ranked is that it's competitive, meaning you're supposed to be trying as hard as you can and not just derping around.

Thing is ranked is a more efficient way of farming than coop (and obviously randoms) and people know this. I see fools derping around and they admit they are there because the rewards are better than randoms, so they dont give a f if they win or lose, they are just there for more credits, xp etc...

and dont get me started on the star saving numpties who wont do anything proactive (at least this usually shows up later in a season).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,115
[TDRB]
Members
5,142 posts
13,741 battles
Quote

I hate this phrase. The people who use it are those who are least interested in the philosophy of a team based game, and who have minimal respect for both their team mates and the reds.

The reality it is just a game, nothing more, nothing less. People play for fun.

People who use this phrase do NOT fall in the single category that you place them in.

The attitude you displayed is what, in reality, is disrespectful. WG has an open invitation to all wishing to play. Not just to those who meet your criteria.

Edited by kgh52

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,115
[TDRB]
Members
5,142 posts
13,741 battles
Quote

I'm not asking for a team of unicums or everyone on my team to spend hours pouring over wikis and youtube videos explaining little in-depth mechanics. All I'm asking for is a modicum of effort. Doesn't matter to me if you're a 40%-er or a 65%-er, as long as you make a conscious effort instead of blindly throwing your ship away you're ok in my book.

This^^^^ is a reasonable expectation.

Quote

But the worst is people that blindly or even purposely throw their ship away without trying and then spend the rest of the match whining.

Blindly & purposely are difficult to judge because the game makes random groups of players & not set teams. Even the top players do something boneheaded every now & then.

I've had players tell me in this forum they look at MMM and if their team does not look good they YOLO. These players were whining about bad play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
87
Members
263 posts
2,840 battles
2 hours ago, Lert said:

All I'm asking for is a modicum of effort. Doesn't matter to me if you're a 40%-er or a 65%-er, as long as you make a conscious effort instead of blindly throwing your ship away you're ok in my book.

But the worst is people that blindly or even purposely throw their ship away without trying and then spend the rest of the match whining.

If they're whining for the rest of the match, odds are that they tried, and they tried hard. They care enough to get upset and bellyache in chat after all.

Doesn't make the whining any less annoying though. Particularly when it's by people that just have no clue and are giving bad advise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
91
[NFE]
Members
360 posts
3,233 battles

"...38.2% are up to how well you play..."

Perhaps, but you are ignoring more complicated math. One (or 100) of those 38.2% might be a game that I can change from a loss to a win if I do 150k damage and sink 6 ships. But you know, I'm probably not going to do that more often than once every 2,000 games, so realistically, I can't influence that game.

How many games can I influence by playing my normal game? How many do I have to play an upper10% of my skill range to win? How many will I lose if I play to only 30% of my skill?  The basic truth is that, in order to affect the outcome of a game, the teams have to be fairly close in talent. And I very strongly doubt that over a third of the games are that close in the cumulative skills of the Random teams. It's simple probability-if you have 4 bad players, they can be aligned as follows:

Team A - Team B

0-4
1-3
2-2
3-1
4-0

As you can see, 4 of the five possibilities are unbalanced. Two are severely unbalanced, compared to only one which is balanced. 

Edited by GoaJim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
Guest
0 posts
4 hours ago, kgh52 said:

WG has an open invitation to all wishing to play. Not just to those who meet your criteria.

Sorry, I only saw your quote just now.

WOWS is a team based game, which has a set of rules, and expectations. They are not my criteria, they are the game's criteria.

That said, these rules and expectations are not terribly stringent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7,118
Members
6,858 posts
15,350 battles
3 hours ago, GoaJim said:

"...38.2% are up to how well you play..."

Perhaps, but you are ignoring more complicated math. One (or 100) of those 38.2% might be a game that I can change from a loss to a win if I do 150k damage and sink 6 ships. But you know, I'm probably not going to do that more often than once every 2,000 games, so realistically, I can't influence that game.

How many games can I influence by playing my normal game? How many do I have to play an upper10% of my skill range to win? How many will I lose if I play to only 30% of my skill?  The basic truth is that, in order to affect the outcome of a game, the teams have to be fairly close in talent. And I very strongly doubt that over a third of the games are that close in the cumulative skills of the Random teams. It's simple probability-if you have 4 bad players, they can be aligned as follows:

Team A - Team B

0-4
1-3
2-2
3-1
4-0

As you can see, 4 of the five possibilities are unbalanced. Two are severely unbalanced, compared to only one which is balanced. 

That's the entire point. A perfect player converts all of his opportunities between the auto wins and auto losses. A bad player converts none of them. Each players skill dictates how many of those opportunities they will convert. 

Edited by Ducky_shot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,115
[TDRB]
Members
5,142 posts
13,741 battles
1 hour ago, LoveBote said:

Sorry, I only saw your quote just now.

WOWS is a team based game, which has a set of rules, and expectations. They are not my criteria, they are the game's criteria. 

That said, these rules and expectations are not terribly stringent. 

Rules are by WG. Abiding by those rules will keep you within the expectations of WG. That is the purpose of rules.

You are correct, WG rules & expectations are not terrible stringent.

But the expectations of other players far exceed what WG requires.

I'm saying your comment "The people who use it are those who are least interested in the philosophy of a team based game, and who have minimal respect for both their team mates and the reds" far exceeds what is reasonable for this game.

The biggest issue I see in viewing Warships as a "team game" is the vast majority of the rewards are individual achievement rewards. Ignoring team play can & does increase those individual rewards.

Please take my comments as a friendly disagreement. I am not trying to be insulting.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×