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Hey WG, I would like to know the percentages on your ship drops in the British crates plz.

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In Vegas when you gamble you can figure out the odds of winning or losing.  Random crates for real world money is the same as gambling, no matter how you spin it.  So what are the percentages of actually getting a ship in your 1000 doubloon crates?  There was also another developer that got busted for making you buy a certain amount of their crates before the good stuff would drop, but advertised it as completely random at any time, and it was not true.  So do the ships drop at any time from your first crate, and if so, what is the percentage?  This should already be transparent, unless I missed this info somewhere....

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Just now, iRA6E said:

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LOL, ya, I know..... 

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4 minutes ago, ESX said:

In Vegas when you gamble you can figure out the odds of winning or losing.  Random crates for real world money is the same as gambling, no matter how you spin it.  So what are the percentages of actually getting a ship in your 1000 doubloon crates?  There was also another developer that got busted for making you buy a certain amount of their crates before the good stuff would drop, but advertised it as completely random at any time, and it was not true.  So do the ships drop at any time from your first crate, and if so, what is the percentage?  This should already be transparent, unless I missed this info somewhere....

 

1 minute ago, iRA6E said:

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This^^^

WG does not hand out that information, even though it would likely generate more goodwill than serious complaints. The chance in the Token bundles is small. The chance in the doubloon bundles, while greater than the Token bundles, is still small. You do have a cap of 65 total Doubloons bundles, though that is a lot of money for ships that will be tech tree ships in 9.1 (Wed, Feb 12th).

 

If someone were to collect the bundles people have received from each bundle series, you could calculate a good estimate of the chances, depending on how much info you collect. I don't think anyone is taking the time to collect that info though.

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12 minutes ago, ESX said:

So what are the percentages of actually getting a ship in your 1000 doubloon crates?

4/65 to start with.

The denominator decreases by one every time you buy a bundle; the numerator decreases by one every time you get a ship.

If you are both willing and able to spend 65K doubloons, you are guaranteed all four - but these being tech tree ships, it isn't worth trying unless:

1) You've unlocked all the token bundles and got nothing, OR...

2) The first doubloon bundle is a ship (because they all come with permacamos, and the permacamos are worth at least that much).

3) You believe the contents of the other doubloon bundles (the non-ship ones) are actually worth 1000 doubloons each (which I personally do not).

 

The token bundles, on the other hand, are non-exhausting. Those you can't calculate the odds on.

Personally I think it's easier and cheaper just to play for the tokens, try to get some for free... and if you fail, to play the line out and then just pay for the camos if you really want them. Standard permacamo for the T6-8 is likely to be cheaper than this pretty white and gold thing we're getting, and you will be through the Hawkins quickly enough that you don't really NEED a permacamo if you don't get the earlybird release.

Edited by Ensign_Cthulhu
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Just now, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

4/65 to start with.

The denominator decreases by one every time you buy a bundle; the numerator decreases by one every time you get a ship.

If you are both willing and able to spend 65K doubloons, you are guaranteed all four - but these being tech tree ships, it isn't worth trying unless:

1) You've unlocked all the token bundles and got nothing, OR...

2) The first doubloon bundle is a ship (because they all come with permacamos, and the permacamos are worth at least that much).

3) You believe the contents of the other doubloon bundles (the non-ship ones) are actually worth 1000 doubloons each (which I personally do not).

 

The token bundles, on the other hand, are non-exhausting. Those you can't calculate the odds on.

Personally I think it's easier and cheaper just to play the line out and then pay for the camos.

You're assuming equal weight; we know that is not the case however because they are quote to 'Drop more often' in the paid bundles than the non-paid bundles. By definition that means there's a different drop rate per item available, not just ratio of 'jackpots' to 'rolls.' Basically they thumb the scale.

NOW that does not mean that the 65k doubloons method won't work; but they are not mutually exclusive states. You could, for example, drop 61k doubloons and receive NONE of the ships, and get them on the last 4 rolls; the reason being that their individual drop rate within the total available pool was lower; this is similar to how the banned premiums in the Santa crates tend to drop only after every other possible ship is gotten (exceptions apply, but as a general rule that is the case).

Basically, this is gambling with a guaranteed pot, but where said pot is weighted in such a way that they can ensure that the value spent is more than the value won.

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12 minutes ago, _RC1138 said:

Basically, this is gambling with a guaranteed pot, but where said pot is weighted in such a way that they can ensure that the value spent is more than the value won.

Says the man who admitted elsewhere that he pulled ships off the first two doubloon slots in the stack.

14 minutes ago, _RC1138 said:

Basically they thumb the scale.

The way this thing is set up, you can only thumb it so far (and sometimes you end up not thumbing it at all). 

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Well not scientific, but this weekend I am already seeing many of them in randoms.

I just unlocked tier VI even before directives week 2.

So my guess is that odds are fairly high for tier VI and somewhat lower for VII and VIII.

Zero dubs spent

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11 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Says the man who admitted elsewhere that he pulled ships off the first two doubloon slots in the stack.

Reverse Gambler's fallacy; just because I got lucky doesn't mean the system isn't having the thumb pushed on it. Technically possible is just that, technically. The medium experience may not, and likely will not, align with mine. It rarely does in my observations.

12 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

The way this thing is set up, you can only thumb it so far (and sometimes you end up not thumbing it at all). 

They can in theory thumb it for 61 times; in a total value that translates to ~$200 USD. That's not nothing.

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56 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

4/65 to start with.

The denominator decreases by one every time you buy a bundle; the numerator decreases by one every time you get a ship.

If you are both willing and able to spend 65K doubloons, you are guaranteed all four - but these being tech tree ships, it isn't worth trying unless:

1) You've unlocked all the token bundles and got nothing, OR...

2) The first doubloon bundle is a ship (because they all come with permacamos, and the permacamos are worth at least that much).

3) You believe the contents of the other doubloon bundles (the non-ship ones) are actually worth 1000 doubloons each (which I personally do not).

 

The token bundles, on the other hand, are non-exhausting. Those you can't calculate the odds on.

Personally I think it's easier and cheaper just to play for the tokens, try to get some for free... and if you fail, to play the line out and then just pay for the camos if you really want them. Standard permacamo for the T6-8 is likely to be cheaper than this pretty white and gold thing we're getting, and you will be through the Hawkins quickly enough that you don't really NEED a permacamo if you don't get the earlybird release.

Fact is, you don't know … 

 

Your math is simplistic and does not account for how actual code is written 

T5 and T6 camo is not worth 1k doubloons and often goes on sale for much less

Most players won't even use T7 camo long enough to make it worth the expense 

Players just got a handful of free New Years T8 camos, so wth are you even talking about?

 

Stop giving out bad advice 

Edited by Commander_367
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I ended up spending 8000 doubloons and got the tier 5, 7 and 8 ships.  Hopefully the token ones will get me the tier 6.  If not, no big deal...

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It is a bad idea to buy a crate specifically to get a ship.  Therefore, if you do not value the other items you could get, you should just wait a few weeks in this case.   If the special Signals and/or camos are not worth it for you, don't spend the $5 for the crate.  The only real advantages to getting one of these early release ship drops are to get the upgrade modules for free and to be able to try out different Commanders.

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2 hours ago, ExploratorOne said:

It is a bad idea to buy a crate specifically to get a ship.  Therefore, if you do not value the other items you could get, you should just wait a few weeks in this case.   If the special Signals and/or camos are not worth it for you, don't spend the $5 for the crate.  The only real advantages to getting one of these early release ship drops are to get the upgrade modules for free and to be able to try out different Commanders.

Somehow WG has convinced players to pay for low tier tech tree ships … 

And the privilege of being a WIP ship tester - it's so fubar 

Edited by Commander_367
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2 minutes ago, Commander_367 said:

Somehow WG has convinced players to pay for low tier ships from the tech tree … 

And the privilege of being a tester for WIP ships - it's so fubar 

FWIW, from the beginning of both Ships and Tanks, WG has said they would be developed in conjunction with the player base.  That is one of the reasons I started playing both games several years ago.  Also, these are not low-tier, that is T IV and below.  This is mid-tier, which many players seem to feel is a sweet spot of playing.

Keep in mind that there are many crates available for free - the only reason to buy a crate is to either stock up on Special Signals/Camos, or get one of the ships a few weeks early.  I buy crates often, but will not be putting more than $15 or $20 into these because I do need more Special Signals.

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27 minutes ago, DWBGaming said:

I ended up spending 8000 doubloons and got the tier 5, 7 and 8 ships.  Hopefully the token ones will get me the tier 6.  If not, no big deal...

For the 8000 I got the Hawkins and Devonshire, but don't think much of either ship. The next random for tokens is the Hawkins again, so I can get whatever the credits that you get for duplicates. The tokens I will use but I'm not interested in the rest of the ships at this point. Good luck to you on the Hawkins.

Edited by jager_geist
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1 hour ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

4/65 to start with.

The denominator decreases by one every time you buy a bundle; the numerator decreases by one every time you get a ship.

If you are both willing and able to spend 65K doubloons, you are guaranteed all four - but these being tech tree ships, it isn't worth trying unless:

1) You've unlocked all the token bundles and got nothing, OR...

2) The first doubloon bundle is a ship (because they all come with permacamos, and the permacamos are worth at least that much).

3) You believe the contents of the other doubloon bundles (the non-ship ones) are actually worth 1000 doubloons each (which I personally do not).

 

The token bundles, on the other hand, are non-exhausting. Those you can't calculate the odds on.

Personally I think it's easier and cheaper just to play for the tokens, try to get some for free... and if you fail, to play the line out and then just pay for the camos if you really want them. Standard permacamo for the T6-8 is likely to be cheaper than this pretty white and gold thing we're getting, and you will be through the Hawkins quickly enough that you don't really NEED a permacamo if you don't get the earlybird release.

 

1 hour ago, _RC1138 said:

You're assuming equal weight; we know that is not the case however because they are quote to 'Drop more often' in the paid bundles than the non-paid bundles. By definition that means there's a different drop rate per item available, not just ratio of 'jackpots' to 'rolls.' Basically they thumb the scale.

NOW that does not mean that the 65k doubloons method won't work; but they are not mutually exclusive states. You could, for example, drop 61k doubloons and receive NONE of the ships, and get them on the last 4 rolls; the reason being that their individual drop rate within the total available pool was lower; this is similar to how the banned premiums in the Santa crates tend to drop only after every other possible ship is gotten (exceptions apply, but as a general rule that is the case).

Basically, this is gambling with a guaranteed pot, but where said pot is weighted in such a way that they can ensure that the value spent is more than the value won.

Really it's all theorycrafting since WG will never release their drop rates unless eventually they are legally forced to do so and run out of dodges. Without knowing the drop rates, there's no way to know whether or how much WG has its fingers on the scales.

Best-case scenario is that you have a 4/65 chance of receiving a ship in your first doubloon bundle and then increasing odds thereafter (By saying the ships 'drop more often' in paid bundles, it could mean that the odds for token bundles are just worse than 61:4). Either way, the odds in a token bundle are obviously therefore worse than 4/65, and because the pool is infinite, neither do the odds of getting a ship in the token bundles ever improve. 

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3 minutes ago, RainbowFartingUnicorn said:

Either way, the odds in a token bundle are obviously therefore worse than 4/65, and because the pool is infinite, neither do the odds of getting a ship in the token bundles ever improve. 

Were the non-premium event crates any different? You could potentially open however many of those the event gave you for free and still not get anything. This is the same thing in a different guise, except you don't get the oil for the crates.

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5 minutes ago, RainbowFartingUnicorn said:

there's no way to know whether or how much WG has its fingers on the scales.

Well we know they *do* thumb the scales because they've *told* us they do, as for example the Santa crates all have the same possible draws of outcomes, yet different costing crates drop ships more often. Moreover, different ships in those crates drop more regularly. Remember how last year EVERYONE got a Kryspy Kream first? I did too. And even this event, they outright say the Paid, Doubloon option has a higher chance of dropping a ship than that of the 'free' version. They definitely thumb the scale, how much is a whole 'nother thing.

 

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Well, OP, unless you’ve spent a career acquiring a “particular set of skills” that will allow you to hunt down, find, and see those numbers...

...you’re going to have to settle for hearing WG dismissively tell you”good luck” in a Slavic accent.

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4 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Were the non-premium event crates any different? You could potentially open however many of those the event gave you for free and still not get anything. This is the same thing in a different guise, except you don't get the oil for the crates.

Well, they were different in the sense that we had no idea what the drop rate was on ship missions for event crates, and the non-premium crates were infinite, so now there's a guarantee if you want to spend a stupid amount of money. I'd prefer the system from the Italian cruisers or French DDs more than the current one.

1 minute ago, _RC1138 said:

Well we know they *do* thumb the scales because they've *told* us they do, as for example the Santa crates all have the same possible draws of outcomes, yet different costing crates drop ships more often. Moreover, different ships in those crates drop more regularly. Remember how last year EVERYONE got a Kryspy Kream first? I did too. And even this event, they outright say the Paid, Doubloon option has a higher chance of dropping a ship than that of the 'free' version. They definitely thumb the scale, how much is a whole 'nother thing.

 

Yeah, what I meant was that we don't know without the drop rates whether they're thumbing the scales behind the scenes or not. We know they're thumbing the scales up front, you can see that for bundles just on the distribution of prizes - all else being even, the odds of getting any specific bundle may be as high as 1/65, but the odds of getting a specific reward are different because of the prize frequency. 

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How is giving different prizes a different rate of appearing in the results "putting a thumb on the scale"? 

Every time I see someone post "WG puts their thumb on the scale", it comes across as an accusation that WG is deliberately controlling the results on an instance-by-instance basis, rather than setting the odds and letting them play out.

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1 minute ago, KilljoyCutter said:

How is giving different prizes a different rate of appearing in the results "putting a thumb on the scale"? 

Every time I see someone post "WG puts their thumb on the scale", it comes across as an accusation that WG is deliberately controlling the results on an instance-by-instance basis, rather than setting the odds and letting them play out.

Only putting a thumb on the scale behind the scenes, or, shifting how you do it without notice, really bothers me. 

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2 hours ago, ESX said:

In Vegas when you gamble you can figure out the odds of winning or losing.  Random crates for real world money is the same as gambling, no matter how you spin it.  So what are the percentages of actually getting a ship in your 1000 doubloon crates?  There was also another developer that got busted for making you buy a certain amount of their crates before the good stuff would drop, but advertised it as completely random at any time, and it was not true.  So do the ships drop at any time from your first crate, and if so, what is the percentage?  This should already be transparent, unless I missed this info somewhere....

I would also like to see the token drop rate as well.

@Sub_Octavian

 

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3 minutes ago, KilljoyCutter said:

How is giving different prizes a different rate of appearing in the results "putting a thumb on the scale"? 

Because under Gambling Laws in say, Vegas, or Monte Carlo, or really, ANYWHERE, in order for a Game to be legal in a Casino, it must have an *equal* chance of all outcomes. So for example on a roulette wheel, 00 has to have the same *chance* of happening as 15; one cannot happen less frequently than the other. What you can do is pay out differently based on how much of the board you cover. So yes, 'black' will come up just shy of 50% of the time, and pays out less than if you take a Specific number. Likewise on a Slot machine; if a wheel has 6 positions, all positions have to have an equal 1/6 chance of coming up. You can change the payout conditions to be very specific across 5 wheels, so that the rate of Jackpots is exceedingly low, but the chance of an individual 'roll' must always equal all others.

That's not what is happening here. Not only is there say in a Santa crate, a 1/10 chance of which prize will drop, but they weight it in a way (aka thumb the scale) so that it's really 1/20, or 1/30 that a ship will drop, and WITHIN that, 1/50 that one of the RARE ships will drop. And this is actually a *very* simple thing to do and I'd be shocked if Wargaming made it more complex than this:

Let's say there is a hypothetical Lootbox being sold. It has 4 possible drops:

Ship

Flag

Camo

Some Coal

At face value, the appearance is that there is a 1/4 chance of dropping a ship. Meaning the odds are 1:4 to get a ship, or a 25% chance. So in theory, if that was as simple as that and truly random, if you bought 4 crates, you should receive any 1 prize.

Now it's easy to assume the WAY This would work is that there is a RNG that rolls a number between 1 and 4, and each one of those outcomes (let's say 1=Ship, 2=Flag, 3=Camo, 4=Coal) is assigned one of those numbers and whatever comes up is what drops. But that's unlikely how this game works. In reality, the RNG probably rolls 1 to 100. Now you could still do this 'fairly' by having the assignments go 1-25=Ship, 26-50=Flag, 51-75, Camo, 76-100=Coal). But that's highly unlikely the case and not how thumbing the scale works. What is far more likely the case is that 1-10=Ship, 11-40=Flag, 41-70=Camo, 71-100=Coal. This still has the APPEARANCE of a 1/4 chance of a ship, but it's really 1/10.

So now let's extend this example to how Wargaming actually admits it does.

The above crate as described is given away for free for completing dailies, directives, and missions. A premium version of the crate is ALSO sold along side it, touted as having a higher 'drop' chance of Ships.

So with the 'Free Crate's' odds being:

1-10=Ship, 11-40=Flag, 41-70=Camo, 71-100=Coal or 1/10 chance of a ship, the Premium crates goes:

1-15=Ship, 16-43=Flag, 44-71=Camo, 72-100=Coal.

Again, both have, at face value, a 1/4 chance of dropping a ship, but the thumb on the scale limits it.

And these algorithms can be nested within themselves; so say there's 20 ships, there may be at face value a 1/20 chance, if a ship rolls, to get any one, but instead of it going in 5 assigned rolls per ship, it may be 1 for rarer ships, and 8 for others, increasing the drop rates of some relative to others.

This is something that is actually *illegal* in the vast VAST majority of gambling localities, all over the world, including the US and the EU (and China fyi). This is one of, not the only (tax laws are a bigger part I believe), but one of the reasons WHY the Gaming industry DOES NOT want these lootboxes classified as gambling, and why in such countries that pass legal restrictions, they opt to pull the lootcrates from that localization rather than just accept the age restrictions. I mean haven't you ever wondered why they don't just keep selling them with an age gate? Surely they'd make more money right? Well, the problem is, they'd then have to FOLLOW gambling laws, on top of paying the taxes associated, they would have to reveal the *real* odds, verified independently (just like any Casino). So that would mean they'd have to admit that the hypothetical crate's Ship drop rate is REALLY 1/10, not 1/4, and what's worse, would be required to specify *specific* outcomes for those other 90 positions; simply blanketing 11-40 as Flags is not acceptable, the same way the roulette wheel is 00 and then 30 spaces that all read Black35, and so on; they have to all have an *equal* opportunity.

So they would either have to ACTUALLY allow ships to drop 1/4 times, OR they would have to provide another 90 possible *specific* outcomes to cover the balance equally. That's something Wargaming, and EA, and Ubisoft, and Activision *DO NOT* want to be placed to do, because while that would give them the free and clear to turn their games into glorified casinos, it would require THAT much more investment on THEIR part of providing these alternative outcomes, and unlike a real casino, people will likely NOT accept busts.

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