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Randomguy22

Free Puerto Rico is mathematically impossible?

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Alright, so I was curious to see what the minimum required effort was to get Puerto Rico for free, and as it turns out, it may just be flat-out impossible. After running the math under the assumption of an ideal player who gets every point possible and completes every directive at the moment it becomes available, the numbers I got showed that it is flat-out impossible to get Puerto Rico for free even assuming a player who can pause time indefinitely to grind all he wants at the moment where it would be most indefinitely.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. I have attached the spreadsheet of my calculations below.

EDIT: I've re-did the calculations with daily missions factored in. Efficiency was improved, but the result was still an impossible grind.

EDIT 2: THE MATH IN THE SPREADSHEETS BELOW IS INCOMPLETE AND ENTIRELY RELIANT ON AN UNKNOWN BASE RATE THAT REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND.  See below.

EDIT 3: Apparently the base rate is confirmed at 125 PPM. This makes it functionally impossible to complete with the directives being what they are. New spreadsheet uploaded.

PR Calculations.xlsx

PR CalculationswithDailyMissions.xlsx

PR CalculationsBaseRate.xlsx

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Did you include the CP form the log in 75 and the dailies 640?

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Just now, paradat said:

Did you include the CP form the log in 75 and the dailies 640?

They were factored into the assumption that all boosters are acquired at the moment the directive became available, since these are ultimately supplements to the directives. I can see if going into more detail changes things, but I doubt it.

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15 minutes ago, Randomguy22 said:

They were factored into the assumption that all boosters are acquired at the moment the directive became available, since these are ultimately supplements to the directives. I can see if going into more detail changes things, but I doubt it.

Dang looks grim. Not even considering that no one is finishing all the directives on the first day of each directive.

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I'm pretty sure even if you get all the boosters instantly, it's not possible with the now 51.3M point grind (all our assumptions were on a 32mil grind before the patch dropped) ...  My math shows it about 10mil poitns short.   And even with the 6k dubs booster on day 1 which is only with about 8.7mil you're still short.  I hope I'm missing something here....

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Yeah, just re-did the calculations with daily missions factored in. Efficiency was increased, but the days required at the end even under ideal conditions still resulted in an impossible number. Attaching updated spreadsheet to the OP.

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Math looks right to me, if you factored in all the possible points in the right way. That's a low stunt on WG's part. Can you imagine busting your butt, getting everything done as fast as humanly possible, only find out at the end that nope, pay now if you really want it.

Before we jump to conclusions, let's make sure you're right. If it's true then others will figure it out, and we'll get confirmation. If so, then boy is there going to be hell to pay.

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26 minutes ago, Randomguy22 said:

Yeah, just re-did the calculations with daily missions factored in. Efficiency was increased, but the days required at the end even under ideal conditions still resulted in an impossible number. Attaching updated spreadsheet to the OP.

Well Crap. So did WG lie? Are we missing something. Perhaps the duration of the event? 35 days total? 29 days of auto build.

Edit Ah OK Base rate. That is what we do not have. That is a huge deal.

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Also, do remember that this is assuming that the player is some kind of squirre-god hopped up on meth who can stop time and complete all the directives at the moment they become available. Realistically, it's going to take 4-6 days per directive even for a good player, which drives the efficiency of the calculations above down significantly. 

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17 minutes ago, absd said:

I'm pretty sure even if you get all the boosters instantly, it's not possible with the now 51.3M point grind (all our assumptions were on a 32mil grind before the patch dropped) ...  My math shows it about 10mil poitns short.   And even with the 6k dubs booster on day 1 which is only with about 8.7mil you're still short.  I hope I'm missing something here....

  So that is my question...does the 6000 doubloon buy make this PR attempt easy or is it just going to lose 6000 dubs without ensuring the ship? May wait til Kizarvexis does his analysis to see if I can do this or whether like Kramer in Seinfield.."I'm Out!"

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1 minute ago, Randomguy22 said:

Also, do remember that this is assuming that the player is some kind of squirre-god hopped up on meth who can stop time and complete all the directives at the moment they become available. Realistically, it's going to take 4-6 days per directive even for a good player, which drives the efficiency of the calculations above down significantly. 

For sure. No one is finishing all these directives on the day they are offered. Some of the early ones sure but not the later ones.

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1 minute ago, verkhne said:

  So that is my question...does the 6000 doubloon buy make this PR attempt easy or is it just going to lose 6000 dubs without ensuring the ship? May wait til Kizarvexis does his analysis to see if I can do this or whether like Kramer in Seinfield.."I'm Out!"

It makes it impossible unless you spend 14k dubs AND grind out everything on the second the directives become available.  Which means you're going to be spending 24k dubs and on top of it grinding like crazy for a discount from 59k dubs that it costs if you buy it right now.  We don't know how big the discounts are for 'getting closer'

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53 minutes ago, Randomguy22 said:

Alright, so I was curious to see what the minimum required effort was to get Puerto Rico for free, and as it turns out, it may just be flat-out impossible. After running the math under the assumption of an ideal player who gets every point possible and completes every directive at the moment it becomes available, the numbers I got showed that it is flat-out impossible to get Puerto Rico for free even assuming a player who can pause time indefinitely to grind all he wants at the moment where it would be most indefinitely.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. I have attached the spreadsheet of my calculations below.

EDIT: I've re-did the calculations with daily missions factored in. Efficiency was improved, but the result was still an impossible grind.

 

PR Calculations.xlsx

PR CalculationswithDailyMissions.xlsx

Don't forget that all those boosts of +x CP/min add to a particular base CP/min. We do not yet know what that is. Getting all 3 Dub boosts may not get you the PR.

 

Dub boost info 

  3 hours ago, ClassicLib said:

Activation of the 1st one gets you over half way into Stage II.

6k

image.png.6880d5315d79f2b5cdce776e3f6f0b6b.png 

 

8k

image.thumb.png.99dd48859ad6b7f88522b070900bfd16.png

 

10k

image.thumb.png.5346ebc59ba6d72aa5c5ec159d22839e.png

 

Right now if you buy all three doubloon boosts for 24k doubloons ($96) I do not know if you will complete PR between Dec 16th and Jan 13th. We know what the bonuses are to the CP/min rate for the dub and Token boosts, but we DO NOT yet know the base CP/min rate that the bonuses add on to. I have two posts pinging Turbo07, Fem, Gneis and Sub_Oct with this info. 

 

Here are the calculations.

Buying all three doubloon boosts for 24,000 doubloons gives you 3 Santa Mega Gift containers, but more importantly +421 CP/min to the construction rate and 18,500,000 CP in Instant CP bonuses.

From 5am EST Mon, Dec 16th to 5am EST Mon, Jan 13th is 40,320 minutes.

So if the base rate is 393 CP/min, then the +421 gives us a rate of 814 CP/min. Over 40,320 minutes that is 32,820,480 CP plus the 18,500,000 in instant bonuses for a total of 51,320,480 and PR will complete on it's own.

IF the base rate is less than 393 CP/min BEFORE adding boosts, then we will need to complete Token boosts as well. How many Token boosts we will need will depend on the base rate.

 

Everyone,

IF you buy the 3 doubloon boosts, then you may or may not complete the PR. You will get an option for completing the PR instantly for ANOTHER 35,000 doubloons because you passed Phase 18. If you get past Phase 24 after the 16th, the extra dub cost to complete instantly goes down, but we don't know by how much. Same for getting past Phase 30. So getting Puerto Rico with doubloons will cost somewhere between 24,000 dubs ($96) and 59,000 dubs ($236) if you want to use only doubloons and not do any Token boosts. We don't know how many Token boosts it will take until we get the base CP/min construction rate from WG.

 

  3 hours ago, Vader_Sama said:
  3 hours ago, Vader_Sama said:

shot-19_12.11_06_15.04-0396.jpg.0dc5a06b1a2c202a2eab43d8b93453f2.jpg

 

This goes down in Phase 24 and again in Phase 30, but we do not yet know how much.

 
So things are still up in the air.
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11 minutes ago, Randomguy22 said:

I think the math is good and I've already posted it, but I'd rather the riot not start unless it's confirmed. 

Interesting. I’m not spending anything to get PR so if the math is correct I’ll just forget PR exists and knock off snowflakes. 

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Just now, Randomguy22 said:

Ah, so is the base rate still uncertain? Right now it looks to be 6 PPM.

That's the points on the first free boost.

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Good spotting Kizarvexis, I missed the 'base rate' doing my math.  Nice summary.  I am glad I missed something.

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4 minutes ago, Randomguy22 said:

Ah, so is the base rate still uncertain? Right now it looks to be 6 PPM.

Isn't that just the rate boost from the free booster? Nothing known about the base rate yet.

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2 minutes ago, absd said:

Good spotting Kizarvexis, I missed the 'base rate' doing my math.  Nice summary.  I am glad I missed something.

So this is 100% dependent on the one piece of information we don't have. Looks like I was wrong about having a few days to work out the math and make an informed decision.

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9 minutes ago, Kizarvexis said:

DO NOT yet know the base CP/min rate that the bonuses add on to. I have two posts pinging Turbo07, Fem, Gneis and Sub_Oct with this info. 

Ah whew… OK that is a big deal. That completely alters the OP spread sheet.

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Just now, RainbowFartingUnicorn said:

Isn't that just the rate boost from the free booster? Nothing known about the base rate yet.

Well, 'Free boost available from day 1 with no grind or charge required' may as well be added into a hypothetical base rate for all the difference it would make. However, if there is something else involved from day 1, then my math would change significantly. 

Until information about such a base rate is revealed though, there's nothing I can do.

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Think they did it on purpose just to try and get everyone all emotional about wg messing up bad, to get people into an emotional frenzy, just so they could back off a little and tell us it was all ok 4 days into it when they release that 'base rate' and suddenly make it possible?  It fits a nasty version of a public relations strategy, but I have no proof that's their goal, so consider this a crazy conspiracy...

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11 minutes ago, absd said:

Think they did it on purpose just to try and get everyone all emotional about wg messing up bad, to get people into an emotional frenzy, just so they could back off a little and tell us it was all ok 4 days into it when they release that 'base rate' and suddenly make it possible?  It fits a nasty version of a public relations strategy, but I have no proof that's their goal, so consider this a crazy conspiracy...

My kind of crazy though...

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