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WES_HoundDog

PLease convince me

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How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

 

I got 2 of those fires on 1 salvo and he put them both out before i fired again.

Edited by WES_HoundDog
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Statistics. If enough games are played, outlier outcomes will occur. Quite often, in fact.

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1 minute ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them  does not = rigged games 2019?

Well, there’s two possibilities I can think of off the top of my head. Is that good enough?

Edited by ClassicLib

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1 minute ago, Taichunger said:

Statistics. If enough games are played, outlier outcomes will occur. Quite often, in fact.

Plus, the DCP action time. 

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You might flip a coin 20 times and get heads 20 times in a row.  The previous flip outcome has no bearing at all on the next outcome.  The chances are greatest that it will land heads only 10 times, but 20 times in a row is some number of standard deviations off the mean.





 

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20 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

Statistics. If enough games are played, outlier outcomes will occur. Quite often, in fact.

I never get 15 fires on 20 hits.  I don't think i've even even been close to 50%,  No outliers there.

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9 minutes ago, WES_HoundDog said:

I never get 15 fires on 20 hits.  I don't think i've even even been close to 50%,  No outliers there.

There are so many variables..

As others have said, fire reduction on the ship you are shooting at, DCP uses and its 0% chance window, did the shell land in a place that could actually start a fire, and finally statistics.  Of those 20 shell hits, maybe 3 or 5 only had some% chance applied.

The game doesn't have code in it that says "wes_houndog doesn't get fires".

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29 minutes ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

 

I got 2 of those fires on 1 salvo and he put them both out before i fired again.

 

27 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

Statistics. If enough games are played, outlier outcomes will occur. Quite often, in fact.

This

 

And the 50% fire chance for a shell does not mean that every other hit will be a fire. That 50% is put into the fire forumla, so the actual fire chance is much less.

https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire#Fire_Chance

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Fire chance is on a per shell basis (and also affected by various baked in settings and captain skills on the target ship that reduce the chance of them catching fire). A 10% fire chance doesn't mean if you land 100 shells you're guaranteed 10 fires, it means that every shell (and for the sake of argument let's assume that the target ship has no fire reduction coefficient, which only exists at t1 to stock hull t3, DCP is off for each hit, and you're never hitting a section that's already on fire) has a 10% chance of setting a fire and a 90% chance of not. You could have a game with 150 shell hits using the theoretical situations I just mentioned and get only a single fire, or you could get 25 hits and set 5 or 6 fires. It all depends on RNG. Over a very long time, your fires set to shells hit ratio will probably get close to that percentage, give or take a few tenths, but that's going to take thousands and thousands of hits to weed out the affects of RNG and the standard deviations Burnsey mentioned in his post.

Edited by MidnightPhoenix07

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36 minutes ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

 

I got 2 of those fires on 1 salvo and he put them both out before i fired again.

I've lost track of how many times I've gotten 300+ HE hits with Smolensk and gotten 3 or less fires total for the match.  It happens.

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37 minutes ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

 

I got 2 of those fires on 1 salvo and he put them both out before i fired again.

No, the game is not "rigged".  The game is not out to ruin your fun specifically.

As others have pointed out there are multiple variables on both ends that determine fire chance, not just the number you see on your guns.  When playing through multiple matches with the same ship, you will see fires regularly on some of your targets, while others seem relatively fireproof.  Everyone playing the game experiences this.

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51 minutes ago, WES_HoundDog said:

rigged games 2019?

If you wear your Tin-Foil hat and your Lead boxer shorts the Mind Controller Rays won't be able to affect your shooting abilities and you will win all your matches and get elected Queen of the May and get all the free chicken you want at Kentucky Fried Chicken, both Original Recipe AND Extra Krispy! Stay tuned as we have film at 11:00 o'clock!

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2 hours ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

 

I got 2 of those fires on 1 salvo and he put them both out before i fired again.

I saw the list of people that were on the game is rigged against and you were definitely on it.

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3 hours ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

The wiki link for fire calculations has already been posted, I‘ll just throw in the calculation itself:

50% base chance, that sounds to me like Conqueror or Lion with some signals. So I assume a high tier target.

I also assume that your opponent will run every possible fire reduction mod.

0.5 [your fire chance] x 0.5005 [T10 fire resistance coefficient] x (1 - 0.1 [fire prevention] - 0.03 [DamConMod]) = 0.2177

So your mathmatical fire chance is only 21.77%. With 28 shell hits in a perfect world you could expect on average 6 fires. 

Now I said perfect world. Because there are two things that can cause variation.

First one is the nature of RNG. We all know it, we all have seen it. You say you never got close to a 50% ratio in regards to fires per shell hits. But 9 fires out of 28 hits, which would be the mirrored version of what you described, yet not touching the 50% ratio you described, is about as likely to happen. We just tend to ignore those because they are not negative experiences.

Second is the problem of hit locations. Say you have two shells landing on the same spot with a delay. First one hits, causes a fire. Second one hits but there is already a fire. So this shell has no chance of setting one itself. That will push down your fire chance over the course of a game, sometimes drastically.

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22 minutes ago, SireneRacker said:

Second is the problem of hit locations.  ... That will push down your fire chance over the course of a game, sometimes drastically

Yes, especially if the ship isn't giving you a broadside, in which case you'd be firing AP instead. 

Also factor in the DCP immunity period, in which no fire may start. 

Fire chance may be the most commonly misunderstood statistic in WoWS.  Take what you think is the final chance and quarter it to get close to reality.

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5 hours ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

 

I got 2 of those fires on 1 salvo and he put them both out before i fired again.

"Please convince me" ?

After having you on my team way too many times 1 night (many years ago) in ranked I am convinced that you only scored 28 hits in a whole match w/an RN BB because of your pitiful attempted star saving ranked techniques of hiding behind islands the whole battle.

I am also convinced that your ability to even slightly understand the effectiveness of fire prevention commander skills in relation to your fire chance is highly lacking.

Sorry...you asked me to convince you & all I was able to do was tell you how convinced I was.

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with 28 sec dcp on monty, if i wait a few seconds to douse, dcp is still up for the next salvo.

also ships have fire resist chance

fire prevention captain skill is very common in this meta, plus dcp mod one

also 50% fire chance doesn't mean you get 1 fire every 2 hits

if the target is blocking half the fires with mods and skills and a high tier ship (maybe blocking over half) you get 1 fire every 4 hits in the long run. 

there's still a finite probability that you won't start a single fire in the next 100 hits. it's random, not steady.

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7 hours ago, Umikami said:

If you wear your Tin-Foil hat and your Lead boxer shorts the Mind Controller Rays won't be able to affect your shooting abilities and you will win all your matches and get elected Queen of the May and get all the free chicken you want at Kentucky Fried Chicken, both Original Recipe AND Extra Krispy! Stay tuned as we have film at 11:00 o'clock!

Why is this the first time I'm hearing about the need for Lead Boxer Shorts? I have a whole closet full of tinfoil hats in various styles (sombrero is the best), but nothing to protect The Jewels from evil rays! Ahhhhhhh!

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50% CHANCE does not = 10 shells and 5 fires.  It is as simple as that.  You also did not take into account the other ships flags, commander skills etc... You have made a flawed assumption but I doubt any amount of common sense explanation will change your mind.

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8 hours ago, WES_HoundDog said:

How 28 hits with 50% fire chance on ships without fires on them for only 3 fires does not = rigged games 2019?

 

I got 2 of those fires on 1 salvo and he put them both out before i fired again.

Because fire chance does not work the way it is plainly stated in game:

https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire

 

Quote

 

The Calculation

The chance to set fire for a single high explosive shell hitting a ship is calculated by the following formula (the formulas for airborne rockets and bombs are similar):

 

Fire Chance = FRC · ( 1 - DCM1 - FP ) · ( FCB - IFHE + DE + Σ S )

where:

  • FRC — the ship's Fire Resistance Coefficient (see above).
  • DCM1 — the effect of the Damage Control System Modification 1 upgrade: 5% (0.05) with the upgrade installed, zero without.
  • FP — the effect of the Fire Prevention skill: 10% (0.10) with the skill, zero without.
  • FCB — the Projectile Base Fire Chance (see above).
  • IFHE — the effect of the IFHE commander skill: 1% (0.01) or 3% (0.03) depending on gun caliber, or zero without the skill.
  • DE — the effect of the Demolition Expert commander skill: 0.02 with the skill, zero without.
  • Σ S — the sum of the effects of the mounted Signals Victor Lima +1% chance of causing a fire for bombs and shells with a caliber above 160mm / +0.5% chance of causing a fire for bombs and shells with a caliber below 160mm. / +4% chance of causing flooding. and India X-Ray +1% chance of causing a fire for bombs and shells with a caliber above 160mm. / +0.5% chance of causing a fire for bombs and shells with a caliber below 160mm. / +5% to the risk of your ship's magazine detonating.: +0.01 or +0.005 each depending on gun caliber, else zero.

As an example, we can compare the chance of a single Benson high explosive shell lighting a fire on an enemy Bismarck.

  • The Tier VIII Bismarck is using Hull B (Top) (FRC of 0.6337) and Damage Control System Modification 1; his commander is not skilled at Fire Prevention.
  • Benson fires 127mm HE Mk. 32 with a 5.5% base fire chance. Her commander is a Demolition Expert (not IFHE) and is flying both the Victor Lima and India X-Ray signals.

The fire chance (per hit) would be:

(0.6337) x (1 - 0.05 - 0.00) x (0.055 - 0.0 + 0.02 + 0.01) = 5.12% fire chance

If the Bismarck commander acquires the Fire Prevention skill, the chance would then be:

(0.6337) x (1 - 0.05 - 0.10) x (0.055 - 0.0 + 0.02 + 0.01) = 4.58% fire chance

If the Benson commander didn't have Demolition Expert or the signals equipped, the chance would be:

(0.6337) x (1 - 0.05 - 0.10) x (0.055 - 0.0 + 0.0 + 0.0) = 2.96% fire chance

 

All you are seeing is the *shells* base fire chance (FC_B), but that does not account for the various mitigators such as the ships' resistance coefficient. Just because your shell has a 50% fire chance does not mean that is the ACTUAL fire chance on the target; most times it can be as much as half the stated value in practice.

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I'm not sure what you could mean, when ever i take my Iron Duke out Im nearly guaranteed to light between 13-19 fires, some times you just have to pray to RNGesus and hope for the best

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