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iDuckman

1 from 86 ?

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At the top of each Santa crate description there is an image with "A chance to get 1 from 86" followed by what might be a premium ship badge.

The natural interpretation is that this is the drop rateof premium ships in that type of container.  But one would expect to see something about it in text.  Can anyone confirm that's what it means?

Edit:  It's probably NOT the drop rate.

Edited by iDuckman

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1 minute ago, iDuckman said:

At the top of each Santa crate description there is an image with "A chance to get 1 from 86" followed by what might be a premium ship badge.

The natural interpretation is that this is the drop rate (1.16%) of premium ships in that type of container.  But one would expect to see something about it in text.  Can anyone confirm that's what it means?

 

(Seems kinda low for the proverbial Santa crate ship bombardment.)

1 from 86 means, there are 86 potentially obtainable premium ships. You can get at most 1 of the 86 per crate.

It has nothing to do with droprate (at least I am not led to assume it does).

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2 minutes ago, henrychenhenry said:

It has nothing to do with droprate (at least I am not led to assume it does)

86 possible ships?  That makes sense.  I hope you're right.  Might throw that question onto the CS ticket since you're doing one.

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So you have an unpublished "chance" of getting a premium ship, after that it is a calculable chance (based on how many of the 86 ships you own already) of getting any individual ship.  Not great odds if you want only one or two out of the 86 total. (Assuming you have none of the 86.)

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11 minutes ago, iDuckman said:

At the top of each Santa crate description there is an image with "A chance to get 1 from 86" followed by what might be a premium ship badge.

The natural interpretation is that this is the drop rate (1.16%) of premium ships in that type of container.  But one would expect to see something about it in text.  Can anyone confirm that's what it means?

 

(Seems kinda low for the proverbial Santa crate ship bombardment.)

actually a 1 in 86 chance of getting a ship from a crate is not that bad. A person who obtains and opens 10 crates would have a 13% chance (yes I know this is a terrible approximation but my math is terrible) of obtaining a ship.

Lucky devil you, 13%! Santa is generous :Smile_child:

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If it is anything like last year. then the 3 dollar box will be about 20% ship drop rate and the free ones from the snowflake probably closer to 15% of you are wondering why the free ones which are said to be identical to the pays ones have a different payout rate it could just be statistical anomaly but it could also be that WG weights these differently on purpose.

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27 minutes ago, iDuckman said:

A chance to get 1 from 86

 

16 minutes ago, LoveBote said:

13%!

 

22 minutes ago, iDuckman said:

86 possible ships?  That makes sense

No, it also include other possibilities that extra 16, so a total of 86+16= 102 items - Looking at the Mega Santa crates as an example

 

1 of 102

So if you lucky with first crate a premium ship, the next draw is 1 out of 101

This 1 of 102 is not included in the % of a possible a premium ship even though it stated that Mega Santa crates had the highest drop rate of premium ship. But it did not said what rate??

Therefore

1/102 * Weegee's highest chances of drop a ship

 

 

:Smile_medal:

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Santa Big Gift (86+13)

1/99 * Weegee's Highest chances of drop a premium ship

 

Santa Gift (86+10)

1/96 * Weegee's Highest chances of drop a premium ship

 

 

Don't forget to minus 1 out of the total if you draw a ship

What worse is that we don't know the formula Weegee using that is if you draw a ship then the next draw either reset back? worst possible outcome because of the BIG chances or better if we - 1 out of the total

 

 

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Oh my bad for copy and paste

Sorry :Smile_child:, I didn't have my morning coffee yet

 

 

Santa Big Gift (86+13)

1/99 * Weegee's Higher chances of drop a premium ship

Note: Mega Santa - Highest chances

 

Santa Gift (86+10)

1/96

no chances of premium ship

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35 minutes ago, iDuckman said:

86 possible ships?  That makes sense.  I hope you're right.  Might throw that question onto the CS ticket since you're doing one.

Will update you on CS's response.

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16 minutes ago, ObiphanKenobi said:

No, it also include other possibilities that extra 16, so a total of 86+16= 102 items - Looking at the Mega Santa crates as an example

1 of 102

So if you lucky with first crate a premium ship, the next draw is 1 out of 101

This 1 of 102 is not included in the % of a possible a premium ship even though it stated that Mega Santa crates had the highest drop rate of premium ship. But it did not said what rate??

Therefore

1/102 * Weegee's highest chances of drop a ship

:Smile_medal:

I don't think that math makes any sense. Can't quite tell if you're being serious here. You're assuming that all ships and items have the same chance of dropping. The common understanding is that this is not the case, and that first you roll for what your drop will be (of which 'ship' is one, but not each ship separately) and then you roll for which ship it will be, after the game takes into account the ones you already own. Your math works only for the token bundle method, not for the flat loot crate. 

By your math you would have an 84.31% chance of drawing a premium ship on your first crate (assuming you owned none of them), which is ludicrous on its face. 

A more likely distribution for Mega Gift Containers is the following:

5% chance to get ship IF YES then 1/X to get a particular ship, with X being the number of ships from the drop list that you do not own at the time you got the crate.

5% chance to get 2,000 doubloons.

5% chance to get 12,500 coal.

5% chance to get 180 days of Premium.

30% chance to get one of five camouflage drops.

50% chance to get one of eight premium signal drops.

NOTE: THESE NUMBERS ARE FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND IN NO WAY REPRESENT THE ACTUAL DISTRIBUTION OR EVEN WHAT I THINK THE ACTUAL DISTRIBUTION MIGHT BE.

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I believe it means you have a 1 in 86 chance of getting a Yahagi,  Viribus Unitis, or Ark Royal, 1 in 860 chance of a Marblehead, or Marblehead Lima, and a 1 in 860,000,000 chance of something you want.

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2 minutes ago, RainbowFartingUnicorn said:

I don't think that math makes any sense

"So if you lucky  ........ " Hence my sentence

When you draw, it calculate all possible items that can be drop ...... Hence my other sentence "We don't know what formula Weegee is using"

 

 

and let say RNGodness smile upon you

and your first draw is a premium ship

that 1/102 = 0.0098039216% ............... (if you are a p' admirer), where did you get 84.31% from?

 

Or

lets look at it at different angle

17 items possible to drop in Mega crates, then if you draw a ship, Weegee formula calculate which ship it going to be out of the 86 =

1/17 *1/86 = 0.0006 (round up to the nearest 2 digits after each division)

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Doombeagle said:

I believe it means you have a 1 in 86 chance of getting a Yahagi,  Viribus Unitis, or Ark Royal, 1 in 860 chance of a Marblehead, or Marblehead Lima, and a 1 in 860,000,000 chance of something you want.

Ark Royal! Woot!!  :Smile_teethhappy:

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1 minute ago, KilljoyCutter said:

There are so many ships on that list which will never get played if I end up with them.  :Smile_sceptic:

Then you probably shouldn't buy any crates.

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Just now, Burnsy said:

Then you probably shouldn't buy any crates.

I plan on buying ZERO crates. 

There will be some for free, and with my luck I'll end up having to choose between selling them off for credits, or letting them sit in my port with no purpose other than blocking future drops of the same waste of steel.

 

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4 minutes ago, KilljoyCutter said:

There are so many ships on that list which will never get played if I end up with them.  :Smile_sceptic:

And that, is why there are 86 of them on the list !  Just to torment you and the rest of us !  I can still hear horns in the background.......  Now, that freaking song will be stuck in my head all night....

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16 minutes ago, ObiphanKenobi said:

that 1/102 = 0.0098039216% ............... (if you are a p' admirer), where did you get 84.31% from?

... because you got to a total of 102 with 86 possible ship drops plus the 16 non-ship drops, and that would mean you had an (86/102)*100=84.31% chance of drawing a ship. Your calculation is for the probability of a specific ship on the first draw assuming you own none of the 86 in the prize pool and assuming that each ship has the same probability of any other prize of being drawn.

However, we know that odds methodology is actually not the case- instead, the different prizes have different odds of being drawn, and that if you do draw a ship, it is a separate roll as to which you get, based on a check against what you already own, and, likely, as is widely suspected, with lesser odds of high-tier or banned ships and greater odds of lower-tier ships.

Edited by RainbowFartingUnicorn
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5 minutes ago, Asym_KS said:

And that, is why there are 86 of them on the list !  Just to torment you and the rest of us !  I can still hear horns in the background.......  Now, that freaking song will be stuck in my head all night....

I really wish the crates would drop a token redeemable for a ship, instead of dropping a random ship... but that wouldn't fit the RNG-for-profit model, I guess. 

 

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1 hour ago, iDuckman said:

At the top of each Santa crate description there is an image with "A chance to get 1 from 86" followed by what might be a premium ship badge.

The natural interpretation is that this is the drop rateof premium ships in that type of container.  But one would expect to see something about it in text.  Can anyone confirm that's what it means?

Edit:  It's probably NOT the drop rate.

It is not the drop rate.

We don't disclose rate %s. What it means is that if you get the ship "pull" from one of these containers, you will receive one of the 86 available premiums in the container.

Fem,

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4 minutes ago, KilljoyCutter said:

I really wish the crates would drop a token redeemable for a ship, instead of dropping a random ship... but that wouldn't fit the RNG-for-profit model, I guess. 

 

Neeeever going to happen.  Everyone in the game would suddenly be loading into matchs with the "super rare" ships. They would stop being that, in about an hour.

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