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JohnPJones

China and power projection

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China is currently building up its ability to project power far from its own shores, but realistically, what sort of timeline are we looking at before we see a PLAN CBG or ARG puttering around Africa the gulf, or even the Caribbean supporting their allies there?

im talking a real deployment not just not just a DDG and an Oiler popping into a VZ port for a day or two and heading back.

we’ll say 3 months on station in the med or two months in the Atlantic area for a real deployment with 3+ warships as well as support vessels

Edited by JohnPJones

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Around SEA region, India, and the Middle East; has to be within 30 years. They project the BRI will be completed by 2049 (this is quite debatable if possible). So theyll want/need them prior to completion. 

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11 minutes ago, Rollingonit said:

Around SEA region, India, and the Middle East; has to be within 30 years. They project the BRI will be completed by 2049 (this is quite debatable if possible). So theyll want/need them prior to completion. 

I’m talking west of India, and/or into the eastern pacific, well outside their regular stomping grounds

i know they have some piracy patrols around Africa pretty regularly, but I mean a full on battle group or task force

 

also BRI=belt and road initiative right?

Edited by JohnPJones

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4 minutes ago, JohnPJones said:

I’m talking west of India, and/or into the eastern pacific, well outside their regular stomping grounds

i know they have some piracy patrols around Africa pretty regularly, but I mean a full on battle group or task force

 

also BRI=belt and road initiative right?

Yah, BRI is the Belt and Road Initiative. In order to protect the ports they are building and intend to build in those countries, theyll want/need a CBG operational. Most likely that CBG could potentially be used in the pacific and further, but itll be difficult for alot of political reasons. If the BRI fails, Im not sure. It could possibly depend why the BRI failed if they continue with attempting to build a blue navy. 

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9 minutes ago, JohnPJones said:

China is currently building up its ability to project power far from its own shores, but realistically, what sort of timeline are we looking at before we see a PLAN CBG or ARG puttering around Africa the gulf, or even the Caribbean supporting their allies there?

im talking a real deployment not just not just a DDG and an Oiler popping into a VZ port for a day or two and heading back.

 

You already have a task force regularly patrolling the waters at the Gulf of Aden which is around Africa and near the Red Sea.  The ETF would consists of generally of two frigates or one destroyer and one frigate, with one supply ship.  The alternative is an LPD with one frigate, and one supply ship.   A force as big as one or two LPDs, with two destroyers and two frigates, with a supply ship, has already gone as far as the Indian Ocean.   The ETF would sometimes divert a ship to do exercises and port visits from Iran, to countries in the Med and to the Black Sea, to countries in Africa, all the way to countries in Europe and even visits to Russia.    Right now one frigate is headed for a visit to Africa and it will be joined with a Russian cruiser for naval exercises with the South African Navy.  

 

Remember what happened to the Andaman Islands recently that there was a coup there?  There was talk that India would invade the islands to stop the coup, but it just so happened a PLAN task force was there (said described in the above).   Some say the presence of  the task force may have deterred India from invading the islands but you may never know.  

 

Right now I would think the PLAN likes to keep things low key, which is why frigates are usually chosen for port visits.  It does not politically benefit the PLAN or China to send a large task force right at the east coast of Africa.   Plus along with this, they like to manage their relationships and tensions with India, a frenemy and rival but is also an important trade partner.    Managing their peacetime relationships with measured patrols is the reason why I see them continuing to develop more advanced frigates in the future, even if the production of the 054A frigate has ended.   Unless they see a political benefit in sending a carrier for patrols and port visits, they are not going to do this.   So for now, the biggest they will send is a 25,000 ton Type 071 LPD with a destroyer or frigate.   

 

Its more likely you will see the 40,000 ton Type 075 LHD being used to patrol the Indian Ocean, probably with a destroyer or frigate or two.

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China wishes to police the SW Asia/Australia part of the world themselves.

They graciously thank the US for taking care of it for the last 75 years, but they feel they can take it from here.

After that, the US need only patrol as far as Hawaii.  They've got this.

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3 hours ago, JohnPJones said:

China is currently building up its ability to project power far from its own shores, but realistically, what sort of timeline are we looking at before we see a PLAN CBG or ARG puttering around Africa the gulf, or even the Caribbean supporting their allies there?

im talking a real deployment not just not just a DDG and an Oiler popping into a VZ port for a day or two and heading back.

we’ll say 3 months on station in the med or two months in the Atlantic area for a real deployment with 3+ warships as well as support vessels

Gulf of Mexico will be a little provocative I would think, and last I checked they had no reason to enter the Mediterranean either. USN and her allies can project power in the China Sea because of the fact it supports South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, as well as other allies in the region, plus North Korea is unpredictable enough that even China has to keep an eye on them and even deploy some Anti Ballistic Missile installations along the China / North Korean border at times. So USN ships in the region is justified by international community.

There would be no reason to really justify Chinese CVs in the Caribbean as politics in the region have been rather good for a while. Now the Chinese could get away with sending their naval ships into the Caribbean as power projection if that was a secondary objective to providing hurricane relief maybe.

Mediterranean Chinese might want to wait until a UN assignment comes up as well. And let’s face it with Iran taking pot shots at Warships with Missiles, Chinese really will want their point defense systems fully tested and operational before risking major international embarrassment. ( Have read news reports within last couple years of some missiles thought to be Iranian “falling into the ocean” at the specified ranges that the Anti Missile defense systems in ships would kick in to shoot missiles down at if they were targeting a US warship.)

 

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1 hour ago, AVR_Project said:

China wishes to police the SW Asia/Australia part of the world themselves.

They graciously thank the US for taking care of it for the last 75 years, but they feel they can take it from here.

After that, the US need only patrol as far as Hawaii.  They've got this.

Japan, US, Taiwan, South Korea, and even Hong Kong would say otherwise I think

Chinese can just patrol Chinese, North Korean, and Russian coasts if they want. 

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13 hours ago, Admiral_Thrawn_1 said:

Japan, US, Taiwan, South Korea, and even Hong Kong would say otherwise I think

Chinese can just patrol Chinese, North Korean, and Russian coasts if they want. 

Therein lies the disagreement.  China wants us to go away.

There is a series of presentations on YouTube, outlying the goals of China over the next few decades.

All of their shipping needs to pass through other countries - like being a land-locked country.

They wish to open up a gap in the 'barrier' island chain extending from Russia to Malaysia where their shipping (and military) can freely pass without being monitored.

So when you see disputes over the South China Sea, and the Japanese islands off Okinawa, you see the beginning of this process -- to pry this wall open.

 

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2 minutes ago, AVR_Project said:

Therein lies the disagreement.  China wants us to go away.

There is a series of presentations on YouTube, outlying the goals of China over the next few decades.

All of their shipping needs to pass through other countries - like being a land-locked country.

They wish to open up a gap in the 'barrier' island chain extending from Russia to Malaysia where their shipping (and military) can freely pass without being monitored.

So when you see disputes over the South China Sea, and the Japanese islands off Okinawa, you see the beginning of this process -- to pry this wall open.

 

In order for China to keep the USN out of the area, China will need a larger Navy than both the USN and Japanese Navy.

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14 hours ago, Admiral_Thrawn_1 said:

Gulf of Mexico will be a little provocative I would think, and last I checked they had no reason to enter the Mediterranean either. USN and her allies can project power in the China Sea because of the fact it supports South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, as well as other allies in the region, plus North Korea is unpredictable enough that even China has to keep an eye on them and even deploy some Anti Ballistic Missile installations along the China / North Korean border at times. So USN ships in the region is justified by international community.

There would be no reason to really justify Chinese CVs in the Caribbean as politics in the region have been rather good for a while. Now the Chinese could get away with sending their naval ships into the Caribbean as power projection if that was a secondary objective to providing hurricane relief maybe.

Mediterranean Chinese might want to wait until a UN assignment comes up as well. And let’s face it with Iran taking pot shots at Warships with Missiles, Chinese really will want their point defense systems fully tested and operational before risking major international embarrassment. ( Have read news reports within last couple years of some missiles thought to be Iranian “falling into the ocean” at the specified ranges that the Anti Missile defense systems in ships would kick in to shoot missiles down at if they were targeting a US warship.)

 

And US FONOP in the Formosa/Taiwan straits aren’t provocative? Lol

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9 hours ago, Admiral_Thrawn_1 said:

In order for China to keep the USN out of the area, China will need a larger Navy than both the USN and Japanese Navy.

 

They're working on that.  

 

Nice pic of the Harbin by the way, considered the experimental grand daddy of the modern PLAN ships, and the first of the Type 052 line.  

Edited by Eisennagel

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22 hours ago, Admiral_Thrawn_1 said:

Gulf of Mexico will be a little provocative I would think, and last I checked they had no reason to enter the Mediterranean either. USN and her allies can project power in the China Sea because of the fact it supports South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, as well as other allies in the region, plus North Korea is unpredictable enough that even China has to keep an eye on them and even deploy some Anti Ballistic Missile installations along the China / North Korean border at times. So USN ships in the region is justified by international community.

There would be no reason to really justify Chinese CVs in the Caribbean as politics in the region have been rather good for a while. Now the Chinese could get away with sending their naval ships into the Caribbean as power projection if that was a secondary objective to providing hurricane relief maybe.

Mediterranean Chinese might want to wait until a UN assignment comes up as well. And let’s face it with Iran taking pot shots at Warships with Missiles, Chinese really will wa

nt their point defense systems fully tested and operational before risking major international embarrassment. ( Have read news reports within last couple years of some missiles thought to be Iranian “falling into the ocean” at the specified ranges that the Anti Missile defense systems in ships would kick in to shoot missiles down at if they were targeting a US warship.)

 

 

Chinese warships do enter the Med often enough to visit their country friends there, that include Turkey, Algeria, Italy, France, Spain, Egypt, and Greece, which are some of the countries Chinese warships have visited.  In addition China has a healthy financial and technological relationship with the Israelis, although I doubt that the Israelis are still leaking military secrets to them like they did in the '90s.   Visits to the Med happen because these warships may also be on a trip to Europe, like to Russia, like sending a destroyer to attend Russian naval celebrations in the Baltic at St. Petersburg, which they did this year.  

 

Back when Libya had its Arab Spring that got rid of Khaddafi, Chinese warships went to Libya and evacuated Chinese nationals there, along with other nationals that they later expatriated back to their home countries.  

 

As for Iran, Chinese warships had a naval exercise with them at the end of June this year, and while China has a good relationship with Iran, they also have a good relationship with Saudi Arabia, so more or less they are neutral on any issues on the Persian Gulf.  If trouble happens, they could easily divert their escort task force at the Gulf of Aden to that region.  We should note that their escort task force would often include a 25,000 ton Type 071 LPD loaded with marines, although not with the current force right now.  

 

There are ports in the Med that might be in COSCO management, including Greece.  An important port in Greece, Pireaus, is owned and operated by COSCO.  No surprise there, the port in LA is also under COSCO/OOCL management under contract, and was under OOCL ownership, then COSCO bought out OOCL.  Due to CFIEC, Homeland Security requested COSCO to sell the port back to US interests, something they didn't hesitate or complain to do, as COSCO preferred to have some money back.  However COSCO/OOCL retained management of the port under contract.

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15 hours ago, Eisennagel said:

 

Chinese warships do enter the Med often enough to visit their country friends there, that include Turkey, Algeria, Italy, France, Spain, Egypt, and Greece, which are some of the countries Chinese warships have visited.  In addition China has a healthy financial and technological relationship with the Israelis, although I doubt that the Israelis are still leaking military secrets to them like they did in the '90s.   Visits to the Med happen because these warships may also be on a trip to Europe, like to Russia, like sending a destroyer to attend Russian naval celebrations in the Baltic at St. Petersburg, which they did this year.  

 

Back when Libya had its Arab Spring that got rid of Khaddafi, Chinese warships went to Libya and evacuated Chinese nationals there, along with other nationals that they later expatriated back to their home countries.  

 

As for Iran, Chinese warships had a naval exercise with them at the end of June this year, and while China has a good relationship with Iran, they also have a good relationship with Saudi Arabia, so more or less they are neutral on any issues on the Persian Gulf.  If trouble happens, they could easily divert their escort task force at the Gulf of Aden to that region.  We should note that their escort task force would often include a 25,000 ton Type 071 LPD loaded with marines, although not with the current force right now.  

 

There are ports in the Med that might be in COSCO management, including Greece.  An important port in Greece, Pireaus, is owned and operated by COSCO.  No surprise there, the port in LA is also under COSCO/OOCL management under contract, and was under OOCL ownership, then COSCO bought out OOCL.  Due to CFIEC, Homeland Security requested COSCO to sell the port back to US interests, something they didn't hesitate or complain to do, as COSCO preferred to have some money back.  However COSCO/OOCL retained management of the port under contract.

how long do PLAN warships stay in the med for though? do they stop in for a few days at this port a few days at that port, a few days at another and then head back? or do they do a few days at various ports while spending another month at sea in the Med doing exercises and the like?

i know they occaisionally send ships outside of their normal AOs, but i don't think they send many, nor am i aware of them operating west of the Red Sea for any prolonged time period, that's why i included some general time frames for a 'real' deployment.

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On carriers, I expect that China will deploy a full carrier battle group within 6 to 8 years.  They will in the interim use their existing carriers in local and regional operations to gain more experience.  I think the first time they run a full battle group, it will be with the Type 003 (nuclear?) carrier they are currently building.  That would be a major publicity score for China to deploy a nuclear carrier battle group, matching the US at least in terms of propaganda, if not in terms of actual capacity.

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2 hours ago, JohnPJones said:

how long do PLAN warships stay in the med for though? do they stop in for a few days at this port a few days at that port, a few days at another and then head back? or do they do a few days at various ports while spending another month at sea in the Med doing exercises and the like?

i know they occaisionally send ships outside of their normal AOs, but i don't think they send many, nor am i aware of them operating west of the Red Sea for any prolonged time period, that's why i included some general time frames for a 'real' deployment.

 

Yes, they spend a few days here and there, then head back to the Gulf of Aden for their primary escort mission.  They don't have a mission to patrol the Med, there is no need for that anyway.  Gulf of Aden is where merchant shipping gets attacked by pirates, and Africa, and the waters around is where they are exerting their influence.  Right now they are conducting a naval exercise with the South African Navy, in joint concert with the Russian Navy, which sent one of the Slave class cruisers there.  

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12 minutes ago, Eisennagel said:

 

Yes, they spend a few days here and there, then head back to the Gulf of Aden for their primary escort mission.  They don't have a mission to patrol the Med, there is no need for that anyway.  Gulf of Aden is where merchant shipping gets attacked by pirates, and Africa, and the waters around is where they are exerting their influence.  Right now they are conducting a naval exercise with the South African Navy, in joint concert with the Russian Navy, which sent one of the Slave class cruisers there.  

there's not really a reason for the USN to patrol the Med either, except...cuz 'merica

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40 minutes ago, JohnPJones said:

there's not really a reason for the USN to patrol the Med either, except...cuz 'merica

Well, once upon a time there was, due to the VMF's Black Sea fleet and for a presence near the Middle East. As the USN has begun to swing its focus to the Pacific once again, there's a greater need for availability there, and while security in the Mediterranean has only become a greater issue in the last decade, this is counterbalanced by the general increase in capability of many of the nearby US allies. Even with the general collapse in defense spending after the cold war, for example, the MMI's capabilities have only become more robust, to the point where, even with no nearby USN CSG, there's almost always a strike carrier available for immediate action in the region, be it Charles de GaulleCavour, or Giuseppe Garibaldi, not to mention plenty of surface vessels and attack submarines. Despite the general deterioration in the situation of the Mediterranean, it's one of the few regions the USN really doesn't have to worry about since its allies have it taken care of.

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3 hours ago, Murotsu said:

On carriers, I expect that China will deploy a full carrier battle group within 6 to 8 years.  They will in the interim use their existing carriers in local and regional operations to gain more experience.  I think the first time they run a full battle group, it will be with the Type 003 (nuclear?) carrier they are currently building.  That would be a major publicity score for China to deploy a nuclear carrier battle group, matching the US at least in terms of propaganda, if not in terms of actual capacity.

 

Likely not nuclear but it may pass the use of steam catapults for electromagnetic ones.    004 might be nuclear but I don't know if they have already decided on the propulsion for that one.  

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On 11/18/2019 at 12:14 PM, Eisennagel said:

 

Likely not nuclear but it may pass the use of steam catapults for electromagnetic ones.    004 might be nuclear but I don't know if they have already decided on the propulsion for that one.  

 

I am starting to doubt that 003 which is currently in construction, to be a one ship class.  004 may be a sister ship to 003, and 005 and 006 may head this way and be sister ships to 003.  But I don't think there are any plans right now beyond 004, as it may all have to depend on how 003 will work.   Usually once the PLAN establishes a satisfactory and stable design, they tend to go all out mass producing it.  A successful 003 design may end up making 004, 005 and 006 sister ships of 003.  Going nuclear will depend on current trials with China's first nuclear ice breaker.    Right now 'leaks' are putting the 003 to be about 80,000 to 100,000 tons displacement, conventional powered, but will have EMALs and possibly IEP.  

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17 hours ago, Eisennagel said:

 

 

I am starting to doubt that 003 which is currently in construction, to be a one ship class.  004 may be a sister ship to 003, and 005 and 006 may head this way and be sister ships to 003.  But I don't think there are any plans right now beyond 004, as it may all have to depend on how 003 will work.   Usually once the PLAN establishes a satisfactory and stable design, they tend to go all out mass producing it.  A successful 003 design may end up making 004, 005 and 006 sister ships of 003.  Going nuclear will depend on current trials with China's first nuclear ice breaker.    Right now 'leaks' are putting the 003 to be about 80,000 to 100,000 tons displacement, conventional powered, but will have EMALs and possibly IEP.  

well i guess for the sake of NATO/western superiority lets hope that nuclear icebreaker doesn't work out too well for them lol

you think they're going to build up to 6? i saw something with a chinese official who said 4 or 5.

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6 hours ago, JohnPJones said:

well i guess for the sake of NATO/western superiority lets hope that nuclear icebreaker doesn't work out too well for them lol

you think they're going to build up to 6? i saw something with a chinese official who said 4 or 5.

 

That is theoretically if they go on to make six.  They only have this many places to moor an aircraft carrier, probably 4 to 6 if all are moored at the same time.  004 sounds like a definite,  and I believe she's going to be a sister ship or copy to 003, but 005 and 006 does not appear to be decided yet or what kind of carriers are they going to be.  Maybe they will wait and see how 003 and 004 goes before deciding further.  

Edited by Eisennagel

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