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Tommycooker_1

Matching making problems

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looks like, you dont know how to play with the big boys...

MM has nothing to do with your in game lack of performance...

In other words, your experience is a micro issue not a macro issue... Any other player is able to over come the losses...

All you have proved with the pic is that, an inexperienced player can have losing streaks when he fails to adjust to the high tier meta. This is statistically possible.

In summery, your losing streak is not influenced by MM...

  • Only exemption if MM put you in a tier that was not in the MM parameters.
    • For example a tier 5 in a tier 8 match.

Other then that, Get gud.

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That is not a statistical problem though. Without going into the reasons for why you may have lost, it is very much possible to have streaks.

If you throw a dice five times in a row, is it impossible to land five times 1? It isn‘t. Anyone who played board games will attest that those streaks happen whenever you need them the least. Monopoly when you must cross that road that is filled with hotels.

Same story for this game. Say your win rate is 45%, an eight game loss streak over eight games played still has a .8% chance of occuring.

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Even the best players have losing streaks, so those of us like me, poorer players, must expect them on a regular basis.

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Huh, and pink too.

Looks like someone who doesn't take responsibility.

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yes, but...how can you all be so sure w/o taking a look to MM code? MM can control if your ship would be down or up tiered (or average tiered), and is never based on your WR, OK?... never? My instinct tell me that MM is way more surprising than just sorting player based on ships' tier and type...some complex algorithm that is unknown to us...something like swimming against the tide, sometimes, and with the tide later on...which actually makes the good player more meritorious... 

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2 hours ago, SireneRacker said:

That is not a statistical problem though. Without going into the reasons for why you may have lost, it is very much possible to have streaks.

If you throw a dice five times in a row, is it impossible to land five times 1? It isn‘t. Anyone who played board games will attest that those streaks happen whenever you need them the least. Monopoly when you must cross that road that is filled with hotels.

Same story for this game. Say your win rate is 45%, an eight game loss streak over eight games played still has a .8% chance of occuring.

this

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11 minutes ago, loco_max said:

yes, but...how can you all be so sure w/o taking a look to MM code? MM can control if your ship would be down or up tiered (or average tiered), and is never based on your WR, OK?... never? My instinct tell me that MM is way more surprising than just sorting player based on ships' tier and type...some complex algorithm that is unknown to us...something like swimming against the tide, sometimes, and with the tide later on...which actually makes the good player more meritorious... 

I also cant be sure you arent a loco axe murderer. Perhaps your gut instinct is actually a bit of undigested beef. My gut tells me this is all a giant holographic simulation.

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22 minutes ago, RipNuN2 said:

I also cant be sure you arent a loco axe murderer. Perhaps your gut instinct is actually a bit of undigested beef. My gut tells me this is all a giant holographic simulation.

You may be a MM code expert, not me.

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3 hours ago, Navalpride33 said:

All you have proved with the pic is that, an inexperienced player can have losing streaks when he fails to adjust to the high tier meta. This is statistically possible.

In summery, your losing streak is not influenced by MM...

:   :   :

Other then that, Get gud.

From a statistical viewpoint, I think many players erroneously treat matches as a Bernoulli trial with p=.5 if the player is an average player for the tier, with average ships, captains, etc.  This is simply not true.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

There are too many factors that influence a win or loss from a match to match.  The biggest is probably the fact that MM allows Divisions.  So even if a player is a average skill level player with average ships, modules, captains, etc., the deck is still stacked against them.  This is because as soon as two or more above average players Division together, the odds of their team go way up.  And because the player takes a spot on the green team, he is much more likely to face such a Division than to have that Division on his side.  Sure, sometimes MM will put it on his side, but if it is trying to place it where there are 12 free spots vs 11, it is more likely to find room for a 2 or 3 person division with the team with 12 spots.

I played a couple hundred random games Tier II to IV on a deleted account. After noticing this phenomena and having 12 consecutive losses one time, I gave up on Random games as a no win situation (unless I met people who were above average to division with).  From a statistical viewpoint, the probability of 12 straight losses was infinitesimally small if this was a fair dice roll.  From an intuitive sense, I felt that the majority of those games I had played at least average (some I had bad games and messed up, but most I did OK or even well).  But I also faced Divisions with Nikolai Imperators and other seal clubbing ships at Tier III.  Given they were more likely to be against me than on my side, 12 game losing streaks certainly made sense.

So even if a player is at p=.5 if all things were equal, the p for the match is much much lower. 

You can tell someone "get gud", but please do not say statistics are on your side.  When @Tommycooker_1 says " That is a statistical problem. ", he is absolutely correct.  He really needs to "get gud" and to division with one or two other players who "got gud" and maybe buy a ship that is no longer available to him.

Given that, streaks can and do happen in Bernoulli trials.  However, the streaks in this game go beyond what one would expect.  I would love to see them test no Division Random games some time.

 

 

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2 hours ago, SireneRacker said:

Same story for this game. Say your win rate is 45%, an eight game loss streak over eight games played still has a .8% chance of occuring.

That is absolutely true (well not quite because matches are not independent, but close enough).

However, p for the match is heavily influenced by the factors I discussed above.   So, if he is an average player but has a match p=.45 because of those factors, he has now double (0.84% chance vs. 0.39%) chance of having such a streak.

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52 minutes ago, loco_max said:

You may be a MM code expert, not me.

 

Hmm maybe I need to hack the hologram so I have MM coding experience?

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16 minutes ago, RipNuN2 said:

 

Hmm maybe I need to hack the hologram so I have MM coding experience?

No, in your case it will be a waste of time. No expert will respond the way you did. 

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2 minutes ago, loco_max said:

No, in your case it will be a waste of time. No expert will respond the way you did. 

But my guts says I just need to level up my hacking skill.

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3 minutes ago, RipNuN2 said:

But my guts says I just need to level up my hacking skill.

if you're able to...

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1 hour ago, CommodorePerryIPA said:

That is absolutely true (well not quite because matches are not independent, but close enough).

However, p for the match is heavily influenced by the factors I discussed above.   So, if he is an average player but has a match p=.45 because of those factors, he has now double (0.84% chance vs. 0.39%) chance of having such a streak.

I did indeed simplify things to the extreme, because I wanted to visualize that it‘s not impossible to have such streaks. That one can face different odds, say by having to dark purples in their div or with two teamkillers in their div goes without saying.

I mentioned me leaving out factors in a small side sentence, namely:

4 hours ago, SireneRacker said:

Without going into the reasons for why you may have lost, it is very much possible to have streaks.

I could‘ve been a bit clearer on that part, but the bottom line would remain unchanged. Blame the lack of coffee and the absence of a proper translator.

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I wonder if OP also puts the effort squarely on MM's shoulder if he has a winning streak. Probably not ...

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4 hours ago, CommodorePerryIPA said:

There are too many factors that influence a win or loss from a match to match.

 

None of which has do deal with statistics as a whole, nor MM..

There is no guaranteed wins in wows

There is no guaranteed losses in wows.

BTW the OP is pink.... So in the of the losing game streak, he hit a friendly...

To me, its a classic tale of get gud and stop deflecting/shifting responsibility/blame to other things rather then your actions.

  • Using statistics, the guy was pink using guns.... He may have used torps but guns are easy to get pink for his skill set and the ships he used.
Edited by Navalpride33

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