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5tgb

Please explain HE fire chance...

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I am trying to understand what it means when my ship's HE supposedly has a 10% chance of starting a fire.

In a battle, the numbers NEVER work out remotely close to this possibility.

I would expect that a 10% means that on average, I would start a  fire (if possible - ie. the ship has not already fires burning) 10 times in every 100 hits, with HE ammunition.

But, it is nearly always much, much lower than that 10% (generally in the range of 3% for that supposedly 10% chance).

Can someone please explain this discrepancy?

I really need to understand this.

Thanks

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6 minutes ago, 5tgb said:

I am trying to understand what it means when my ship's HE supposedly has a 10% chance of starting a fire.

In a battle, the numbers NEVER work out remotely close to this possibility.

I would expect that a 10% means that on average, I would start a  fire (if possible - ie. the ship has not already fires burning) 10 times in every 100 hits, with HE ammunition.

But, it is nearly always much, much lower than that 10% (generally in the range of 3% for that supposedly 10% chance).

Can someone please explain this discrepancy?

I really need to understand this.

Thanks

Great question.  Pondered it myself lately. Look forward to responses.

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The tl;dr is basically that your fire chance gets modified by your target's fire resistance stat, which is not only built into the ship's hull but can be modified by signal flags and captain skills.

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Ready for some math?  :Smile_ohmy:  There are videos in this series for "On Fire" and "HE Shells" that should explain a lot. 

To View:  After clicking to play the video, click on YouTube to watch there ... then you can select individual videos in the series.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, DolphinPrincess said:
  •  If the ship you hit have his DCP active, your fire chance is 0

Actually in that scenario, a fire is started, it is just then instantly put out without inflicting any damage.

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35 minutes ago, DocWalker said:

Ready for some math?  :Smile_ohmy:  There are videos in this series for "On Fire" and "HE Shells" that should explain a lot. 

To View:  After clicking to play the video, click on YouTube to watch there ... then you can select individual videos in the series.

 

 

Here's direct links:

 

 

  • Cool 2

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4 minutes ago, DolphinPrincess said:

A fire cannot be started when the consumable is active. This is a fact and is coded as such in game.

↑ That's true. Enemy can't get fire/flooding ribbon during that time.

But all that really matters for you is that you can't be damaged by those sources.

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1 hour ago, JediMasterDraco said:

Actually in that scenario, a fire is started, it is just then instantly put out without inflicting any damage.

That was the case like 3 years ago, but it's long since been patched out.

2 hours ago, DolphinPrincess said:
  •  Fire resistance of enemy ship
  •  If the ship you hit have his DCP active, your fire chance is 0
  •  If you hit a ship section that is already on fire, your fire chance is 0

Also, if your target instantly uses DCP on a single fire, the chance of re-lighting them will be significantly reduced until they're ready to use it again.

Edited by grumpymunky

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2 hours ago, 5tgb said:

I would expect that a 10% means that on average, I would start a  fire (if possible - ie. the ship has not already fires burning) 10 times in every 100 hits, with HE ammunition. 

But, it is nearly always much, much lower than that 10% (generally in the range of 3% for that supposedly 10% chance)

On top of what others have noted by sending you the video concerning fires.  I would like to add a few things...

When you see a ships fire chance, it should state "under normal parameters your fire chance is this %percentage."  What decreases that chance is

  • Any fire prevention measures the receiving ship did, to negate your fire chance..
  • What you did by negating that fire chance
    • That means not aiming properly
    • shooting HE when the red ship runs its fire control consumable
  • Any flags to increase fire chance or to reduce fire recovery time
  • Ships modules
  • Consumables
  • Cpt skills.

Its a short list...

Under normal operation, in a match in where you shoot and the chance is as advertised.... Using your example, you will not exceed 10 fires per 100 shots landed on the correct parts of the ship.

Hope this helped on top of what others have posted...

 

Edited by Navalpride33

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personally, it seems the more you try to increase your ships fireproofing (flags, Captain Skills, etc) the more likely the first (and usually only) shell that hits you ignites you.

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10 minutes ago, Lord_Slayer said:

personally, it seems the more you try to increase your ships fireproofing (flags, Captain Skills, etc) the more likely the first (and usually only) shell that hits you ignites you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

The more you spend on fire-proofing — the more likely you are to notice when such events occur because they matter to you more.

 

20 minutes ago, grumpymunky said:

That was the case like 3 years ago, but it's long since been patched out.

True.

Quote

Also, if your target instantly uses DCP on a single fire, the chance of re-lighting them will be significantly reduced until they're ready to use it again.

Not true O_o:cap_wander_2:

Surely you must've meant something else.

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Thanks to all for the informative responses.

It seems that the majority of the 'decision' is based upon the fire chance and the tier of ship that is the target... higher tier ships are much harder to light on fire.

Also, the fire chance is probably the maximum that could be started...

Thanks again.

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1 minute ago, 5tgb said:

It seems that the majority of the 'decision' is based upon the fire chance and the tier of ship that is the target... higher tier ships are much harder to light on fire.

um no...

Right now, the Conqueror is the king of fires at high tiers... They're many other ships that are fire queens.... 

I say from tier 6 on up, there is a an annoying HE fire starter... Some ships will be easy to light a blaze depending on how much SS area a ship has...

Not what tier it is...

 

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3 hours ago, 5tgb said:

I am trying to understand what it means when my ship's HE supposedly has a 10% chance of starting a fire.

In a battle, the numbers NEVER work out remotely close to this possibility.

I would expect that a 10% means that on average, I would start a  fire (if possible - ie. the ship has not already fires burning) 10 times in every 100 hits, with HE ammunition.

But, it is nearly always much, much lower than that 10% (generally in the range of 3% for that supposedly 10% chance).

Can someone please explain this discrepancy?

I really need to understand this.

Thanks

The "How it Works" video links are your best option.

Remember this is for players. In coops & operations the bots have a much high chance of starting fires. They also appear to have a lower change of being set ablaze. On my Atlanta I've had more than one 100+ hits matches and started no fires. NO!, I do not have IFHE on my Atlanta.

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Since all the things have been said already, I shall do a quick visualization of them to make it more apparent.

You said 10% fire chance, I shall use that figure. As an assumption I will say you are playing a Tier VII ship, it's nicely in the middle, a popular Tier and it serves wonderfully as an example. I'll do one calculation for the worst possible case, and one for the best possible case. To not overly complicate it I won't touch the 10% fire chance of your ship, but I could add things like either IFHE or Demo Expert to influence it into either direction.

Best case
The fire resistance coefficient of a stock Tier V ship is 0.8668, you won't get a higher one than that. Since there is nothing left to be added here the calculation is simple.

0.1 [your fire chance] x 0.8668 [fire resistance coefficient] = 0.08668 or roughly 8.7%

Worst case
The fire resistance coefficient of a top hull Tier IX ship 0.5671. Then there is a Module that you can install, Damage Control Systems Modification 1 which reduces the fire chance by 5%. Fire Prevention reduces by 10%. Since I won't be touching your own fire chance this is all we need for the following:

0.1 [your fire chance] x 0.5671 [fire resistance coefficient] x ( 1 - 0.1 [Fire Prevention] - 0.05 [DamConSysMod1] = 0.048 or roughly 4.8%

So your fire chance will hover between 4.8% and 8.7%, on paper. Note that in the worst case your fire chance is less than half of what it says on paper. Now we have a few other things to consider, one of which can be found in Dolphin's comment.

Quote

If you hit a ship section that is already on fire, your fire chance is 0

Factor that one in and then the wonderful nature of RNG and tadaa, your observations are suddenly quite possible

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7 hours ago, 5tgb said:

I am trying to understand what it means when my ship's HE supposedly has a 10% chance of starting a fire.

In a battle, the numbers NEVER work out remotely close to this possibility.

Basically I see the calculation like this...

RFP ==  (SAFP - SFR) - FM

Where

  • RFP == shell's Real Fire Probability
  • SAFP == Shell's Advertised Fire Probability stat
  • SFR == Ship's Fire Resistance (a soft/unadvertised stat)
  • FM ==  Fire Mitigation/increases selected by the player (flags, capt skills, DCP, etc)

Bottom line the RFP is always less than SAFP leading to the in game results you see.

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6 hours ago, Ryuu_kun said:

Not true O_o:cap_wander_2:

Surely you must've meant something else.

Sarcasm, me thinks.

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8 hours ago, JediMasterDraco said:

Actually in that scenario, a fire is started, it is just then instantly put out without inflicting any damage.

^ This.  The shooter still gets a Fire ribbon.

Edited by iDuckman

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If someone responds "confirmation bias", you've probably hit a nerve, or close to home.  It really has become an easy, buzzwordy way for people to dismiss the observations of others. 

 

Edited by KilljoyCutter
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