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Snargfargle

Your Win Rate Sucks!

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This is why win rate generally doesn't mean much in team games. You, and even several members of your team, can play well. However, if the other team has more good players than yours does you will still lose.

image.thumb.png.77315d00a2ea9f4a561ab19069c3e5c1.png

Edited by Snargfargle
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13 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

This is why win rate generally doesn't mean much in team games. You, and even several members of your team, can play well. However, if the other team has more good players than yours does you will still lose.

image.thumb.png.77315d00a2ea9f4a561ab19069c3e5c1.png

Agree 100%

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So how few of players does there have to be on a team for you to say that win rate means something? 

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30 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

This is why win rate generally doesn't mean much in team games. You, and even several members of your team, can play well. However, if the other team has more good players than yours does you will still lose.

Individual win rate may not matter much in a team game, but combined win rate statistics measured across any given team means a whole lot.  You yourself state that the amount of "good players" on a team can decide the outcome, and you are right.  Those "good players" tend to have good win rates, so win rate generally does mean a lot in team games.

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31 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

This is why win rate generally doesn't mean much in team games. You, and even several members of your team, can play well. However, if the other team has more good players than yours does you will still lose.

image.thumb.png.77315d00a2ea9f4a561ab19069c3e5c1.png

Stop worrying about the win rates of the players on your team and the opposing team and work on improving your game and playing smart.  That was one of the keys to improving my own win rate.  You can't control MM but you can control your own play.

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Add to this that lower level matches while learning to play sticks with you for awhile. Then there are support ships that are harder to carry with which can pull down WR as well. 

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Unicums can have bad games just like potatoes can have good games.

 

Spoiler

Also hiding your stats doesn't fix the fundamental problem ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Edited by pikohan
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32 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

So how few of players does there have to be on a team for you to say that win rate means something? 

This many! :Smile_veryhappy:

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Kind of a weird topic to be started by a person who hides their stats, but ANYHOW

It's been my experience based on lots of watching of matchmaking monitor that given the choice between:

1. A team with several really good players and also several really bad players

or

2. A team where everyone is really pretty average

 

You want team #2 every time.  Team #1's taters will get deleted quickly and the great players will find themselves outflanked and outspotted and unable to do much good.

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If WR doesn't matter, OP, why does it matter to you what other people think about it?

Edited by MnemonScarlet
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31 minutes ago, Ducky_shot said:

So how few of players does there have to be on a team for you to say that win rate means something? 

From a Scientific Standpoint, only 1 v. 1 would be valid; your independent variable would be the players, as in the individual driving the ship, and the dependent the rate of wins. All others held constant, same ships, same upgrades, same captain skills, same flags/camos. One might even argue that only Ocean or one of the mirror maps (identical on both approaches) would be important too although some ships do not function in an empty ocean the way they are designed to.

But from a purest, facts-based, rigorous Scientific standpoint, you can only have a single tested (independent) variable and that is each player, with a related variable to be tested (Dependent) in that case win rate. The hardest part is determining a valid n-number. Since the confidence interval and sum of squared error is relatively low (people tend to make a big deal over minor swings like +-0.01 rate) that means a relatively high iteration number would be required, likely in the 20's to 40's even for a confident cause-effect empirical relationship to be established (that is, x player in y boat is better than z player in y boat).

Anything beyond this and you are drawing conclusions from correlations which is a big no-no.

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Just now, Brhinosaurus said:

Kind of a weird topic to be started by a person who hides their stats

I hid my stats because I got tired of people saying that my win rate sucks.

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Eh, it depends. If we're talking about a single game? Yeah, win rate doesn't mean a whole lot. Even a 35% can do the right thing and carry (even if accidentally) a team to victory. However, if you take that 35%er into battle with you over 1000 games, they would more often than not act or play in a way that is detrimental to your team (e.g. Taking up a top tier BB slot and not doing damage or accidentally torping an allied ship).

If you're worried about what people will say? Who cares. Salty [edited] will be salty even if a top clan member goofed up and sank early.

Edit: apparently the forums edit out fomo (switch f and m places for the edited version)

Edited by 10T0nHammer

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Just now, _RC1138 said:

From a Scientific Standpoint, only 1 v. 1 would be valid

I think it would be fun if this game offered a 1v1 option. Many team games do.

Of course, if you want a 1v1 you can always play a low-tier ship late at night. I've gotten into several 1v1s that way.

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Just now, Brhinosaurus said:

Kind of a weird topic to be started by a person who hides their stats, but ANYHOW

It's been my experience based on lots of watching of matchmaking monitor that given the choice between:

1. A team with several really good players and also several really bad players

or

2. A team where everyone is really pretty average

 

You want team #2 every time.  Team #1's taters will get deleted quickly and the great players will find themselves outflanked and outspotted and unable to do much good.

MM monitor is why i hid my stats, found out an evil but well places tactic used by a lot of players including those on this thread. What most players do is target the weaker players (less win rate) which then leaves the unicom and better players often up against 3 or 4 to 1. not good odds for the good players. My entire Clan now mostly hides our stats because of this tactic.

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2 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

I hid my stats because I got tired of people saying that my win rate sucks.

I mean that's fair and I won't criticize you for it, but then you make a thread specifically talking about people's win rates and how they effected a battle.  You want to have a statistical discussion while withholding one of the statistics that went into the scenario.

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3 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

I think it would be fun if this game offered a 1v1 option. Many team games do.

It does, the training room. It does not track stats but then AAR screens and replays are valid for establishing proof. But I would stress that to quantitatively and empirically establish 'better' would require more than single games. Dozens in fact would be needed for any rigorous standard. There is a reason Chess tournaments are always best of x games because a win rate of 0 is not a real thing and it is possible for the worst to beat the best purely by happenstance. Moreover, it is worse in a game like WoWs where random chance plays a major role (most competitive Video games disable RNG factors like bullet spread on shotguns or weapon sway for competitions opting for locked sights and fixed patters (square, 3x3 box is most common)).

Edited by _RC1138

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2 minutes ago, Ocoda said:

What most players do is target the weaker players (less win rate) which then leaves the unicom and better players often up against 3 or 4 to 1.

Definitely a sensible approach.  Also useful for figuring out which enemy ship to take a chance and expose yourself to given the choice between targets.  Aside from the unfortunate harassment that can result from it, MM Monitor is a powerful tool and it's hard to argue that hiding your stats from your enemy isn't a strategic advantage.

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12 minutes ago, Brhinosaurus said:

Definitely a sensible approach.  Also useful for figuring out which enemy ship to take a chance and expose yourself to given the choice between targets.  Aside from the unfortunate harassment that can result from it, MM Monitor is a powerful tool and it's hard to argue that hiding your stats from your enemy isn't a strategic advantage.

Yup in my Mass I was often targeted early as I had a low win rate, which was as low as 43% but after discovering this tactic early on I switched to hiding my stats and now have a very high win rate with over 1000 battles in her alone, and as i said I was often targeted by multiple ships as soon as I became detected before switching this up. Nevertheless, now that I hide my stats and i'm treated like almost any other player. I notice that most people that call you out for hiding your stats are often those that need the MM monitor to win thier battles.

Ocoda's player profile _ World of Warships - Google Chrome 8_13_2019 1_02_04 PM.png

Edited by Ocoda
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You really didn't have a bad team, the red team was just better this time. If you equalize the base experience to include the 50% bonus for winning only two on your team were below 1000 and they were both in the 900's. Against almost any other team that is a winning team.

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1v1 in this game would be pointless.

If you do a 1v1 in Montana's and I win....does that mean I am better at playing Montana than you?  All it means is, in that game, I beat a Montana with a Montana.

Anyways - as it relates to WR in a specific game, all you can say is that a person with a high win rate has a reasonably better chance to impact the game positively than a person with a 35% WR.  That's about it.

If you are talking overall - yes, the teams you get on impact your overall win rate, but guess what? The guy that has the 65% win rate has to deal with that same crap as the 35% win rate guy.  Over a significant amount of games, you can not state with a straight face that one guy just got consistently lucky while the other got consistently unlucky.  The 65% guy i doing something to win more games than the 35..and the only consistent factor in those games was the player.

Stats shouldn't be thrown in anyone's face and I respect people's choice to hide their stats for whatever reason.  However, I have noticed that people who hide their stats are, in a lot of cases, the most cancerous people in the game.  They hide their stats, because they WANT to be able to go off on people and not give anyone any ammunition to attack them back.  They want to act like the 75% super unicum who could win the game 1 v 12 if needed, and wouldn't want to let a little thing like "facts" get in their way.  Not directed at anyone in this thread of course, just in general.

In the end, if you are looking at stats, you have to take everything into account.  WR, damage, XP, number of games, etc.  Only then do you even get a portion of the picture.  WR is just the easiest and most straight forward (on the surface) stat that people see and therefore most used against people when things go wrong.

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7 minutes ago, Ocoda said:

MM monitor is why i hid my stats, found out an evil but well places tactic used by a lot of players including those on this thread. What most players do is target the weaker players (less win rate) which then leaves the unicom and better players often up against 3 or 4 to 1. not good odds for the good players. My entire Clan now mostly hides our stats because of this tactic.

Targeting the weak is a legitimate military tactic. In fact, it's much older than militaries because this is what predators do in nature.

Carefully compare the opposing army with your own, so that you may know where strength is superabundant and where it is deficient -- Sun Tsu

However, I see your point. Keeping your abilities hidden from your enemy is also a legitimate military strategy.

Conceal your dispositions -- Sun Tsu

I've actually seen players quit the match because the MM Monitor showed the team to have a lower win rate and they said in chat that it wasn't worth their time to play.

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Win rate is a statistic that's analysed over a long number of games ... thousands. Despite the fact that, yes, a lot of games are one side blowouts these days, overall, your individual contribution over time will show in your win rate. And win rate over time is the *single most important indicator of player skill*. I know some people were really big fans of WTR back in the day, but WTR focused primarily on average damage and encouraged people to farm damage on easy targets (battleships) rather than actual threats to the success of a match (radar cruisers and destroyers). It also did not measure things like base capping and base defenses. All of these are HUGE contributors to the success of a match.

Don't get me wrong ... I HATE losing too. It really sucks when you do your best and your team seems dedicated to throwing the match. I have a 51.8% WR after around 2800 matches, but I hide my stats because I can't stand watching that WR drop, let alone having other people see it.

One important thing of note: It's totally safe to ignore WR on individual ships. Unless a player plays hundreds of matches in a ship, it's not a clear indicator of skill as there is still a strong margin of error from bad teammates if you only have a dozen matches under your belt. And, of course, anyone judging a player for their stats in a ship they played only a few times is a complete tool. It often takes time to really grasp a new ship.

So I don't know how many games you've played, but if you've played many thousands of games in Random and your win rate is in the mid 40s, then the problem is you, not your team. I believe the average win rate on an individual player basis hovers around 47ish % since potatoes typically (but sadly not always) have played WAY less games than unicums. The goal of EVERY player is to get their total win rate over 50%. That's usually an indication that they generally positively contribute to their team's success in a match ... although, as we all know, some people really pad that WR by playing hundreds of games in ships like Kamikaze, Belfast, or any other wildly OP ships. lol.

For those curious:

image.thumb.png.ad5d6f19cb9fee2144a37b0d9ce85ba9.png

Edited by KaptainKaybe

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3 minutes ago, Old_Baldy_One said:

1v1 in this game would be pointless.

If you do a 1v1 in Montana's and I win....does that mean I am better at playing Montana than you?  All it means is, in that game, I beat a Montana with a Montana.

If you actually read what I said, it would require an iteration n-number greater than 20 to 30 games. Meaning you play that player 1 v 1 *30* times. The same way Chess Tournaments are typically 7 to 9 games, with the most points scored resulting in the winner. If you beat the same player >15 times over the course of 30 games, same ships, same everything, just the butt in the seat different, then it can be stated *factually* you are better because it has been tested in a controlled, empirically derived manner.

Edited by _RC1138

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Win Rate is the only stat that matters.  No, you can’t win every game, but a 100-game sample will usually show where you stand.  Over many games, your teammates average out.  You can blame them once but not 100 times.

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