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Bereavement

Seascythe Fire Chance Bugged?

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I just got 140 hits in one game and zero fires started. At 10% chance to start a fire, I should have gotten somewhere around 14 fires right? Am I missing something here? I realize RNG is involved, but I've had several games like this.

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14 minutes ago, Bereavement said:

I just got 140 hits in one game and zero fires started. At 10% chance to start a fire, I should have gotten somewhere around 14 fires right? Am I missing something here? I realize RNG is involved, but I've had several games like this.

That's not how RNG works. If it did then BBs would be firing HE all the time with a 30+% fire chance.

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Supertester
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The only explanation I can think of is you either had crap RNG, or were shooting ships in places they were already on fire (or both)

 

You also are missing something... your shells have 10% chance to start a fire, but that does not mean 10% of hits will cause fire. Ships have existing coefficients to reduce the chances of them catching on fire. Savage ships are marked as tier 10, so technically they get the best coffecient. Also there are captain skills and upgrades to reduce incoming fire chance (but I believe all of that is deemed irrevalent in Savage battles). I say this as a learning comment, not a reason... It's not the likley reason you are getting a severe lack of fires. 

 

The wiki has more info if interested https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire

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As the others have mentioned, Fire Chance mechanics are not as simple as they might first appear.  I'm certainly no expert, so in addition to the Wiki article cited above, you may also want to (re)watch this WG Video on how it works:

 

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the odds of failing at something with a 10% chance 140 times are tiny, like one in a few million.

However as has been pointed out,  chance to start fires is more complicated than the stated value.  

Using the equation provided in the wiki, shooting a 10% fire chance shell at a Tier X destroyer that had taken every fire reducing module and skill would yield an actual change of starting of fire of 4.25%

the odds of failing at something with a 4.25% chance 140 times are 0.22%.  Still really bad luck, but no longer unbelievably so.

 

 

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Thanks for the math and feedback. I figured there was some behind the scenes stuff going on. Still though, I really dislike hidden values in games.

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I did the 50 fire last night and did it in about 20 matches.  averaging  bit over 2 fire per match .  did it mostly  with t2 and t3  .    most I got was 6 fire in one match, but   2 or 3 as long as i didn't  potato.  

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