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AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017

Conspiracy theory: how WOWS actually "balance" teams

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So this is what you would do if you are a normal, mentally sane game designer right: you would try to distribute evenly good players and bad players on each side, let's say the worst is 1 and the best is 10, so on one team you have like:

1,1,3,5,9,9,9    = 37

on the other you have:

3,3,10,5,5,8,1 = 35

 

The 2 points difference? It's unlikely it will be big enough to affect the outcome of the match. 

 

But clearly this is not how WG does things: WG DELIBERATELY pair PLAYERS WHO DO GREAT IN THE MOST RECENT 2 TO  3 MATCHES AND PAIR THEM WITH ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS PALYERS, SO HIS TEAM LOOKS LIKE THIS:

1,1,1,9,5,1,3,3,3

That 9 there? That's you, so very often, you will have either one of these 2 scenarios:

A. You are the only one left because you know what to do and what you are doing, while the enemy team is virtually intact. All your teammates, the DDs rushed into the dead center of the low IQ valley in 2 brothers, the CA got detonated because they play like BBs and give full broad side while spamming APs, your BBs got torped in the first 5 minutes by CVs and DDs.

B. You get to sink 4 ships, but still lose, and insultingly WG reward you with 1086 XP at tier 7, because 1, you lost,  and 2, reasons!

 

 

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3 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

So this is what you would do if you are a normal, mentally sane game designer right: you would try to distribute evenly good players and bad players on each side, let's say the worst is 1 and the best is 10, so on one team you have like:

1,1,3,5,9,9,9    = 37

on the other you have:

3,3,10,5,5,8,1 = 35

 

The 2 points difference? It's unlikely it will be big enough to affect the outcome of the match. 

 

But clearly this is not how WG does things: WG DELIBERATELY pair PLAYERS WHO DO GREAT IN THE MOST RECENT 2 TO  3 MATCHES AND PAIR THEM WITH ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS PALYERS, SO HIS TEAM LOOKS LIKE THIS:

1,1,1,9,5,1,3,3,3

That 9 there? That's you, so very often, you will have either one of these 2 scenarios:

A. You are the only one left because you know what to do and what you are doing, while the enemy team is virtually intact. All your teammates, the DDs rushed into the dead center of the low IQ valley in 2 brothers, the CA got detonated because they play like BBs and give full broad side while spamming APs, your BBs got torped in the first 5 minutes by CVs and DDs.

B. You get to sink 4 ships, but still lose, and insultingly WG reward you with 1086 XP at tier 7, because 1, you lost,  and 2, reasons!

 

 

:Smile_facepalm:

 

 

The MM uses ship type and tier and doesn't look at players.

 

You do know that a random distribution can stack a team right? Say you have 1/3 of the players in a group of 24 that the MM has grabbed that are good. So 8 of the 24 are good and the other 16 are average to bad. Here is all the ways those 8 good players can be split between the two teams.

 

A   B

0   8

1   7

2   6

3   5

4   4

5   3

6   2

7   1

8   0

 

So if you look at 3, 4, or 5 players as balanced, then the two extremes are unbalanced. So 2/3 of the time, one team or the other will be stacked and you will have a 50/50 shot at being on that stacked team.

 

:Smile_facepalm:

 

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6 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

As someone who scored 200k damage in a friggin Furutaka, yea.

I got 202k in a kami.... consider yourself 1 up'ed lol.

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5 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

As someone who scored 200k damage in a friggin Furutaka, yea.

Your damage record is 105k in a Furu.

Screenshot (101).png

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 i think the MM fills the high tiers 1st and works down. that is why it feels like you are up tiered all the time. 

player W/L have nothing to do with it. they just need to fill matches. 

this is most likely from the 1st year as not everyone had a T10 and they needed to have matches for the high tier players as they were most likely to spend $ on cammos and other game stuff. 

just my thoughts. 

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File this thread under "reinventing the square wheel". Many have made this argument before you, and they made it way better.

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4 minutes ago, JediMasterDraco said:

Your damage record is 105k in a Furu.

Screenshot (101).png

I wish I knew how to perform this "screenshot" magic spell....

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This is a good illustration why gods and religion was invented. People just can't deal with random distribution so they need good powers to help them and bad guys out to get them.

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14 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

As someone who scored 200k damage in a friggin Furutaka, yea.

You mean 105k.....

 And one game means little, when you can't crack 30k avg. damage in any BB, regardless of tier.

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17 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

As someone who scored 200k damage in a friggin Furutaka, yea.

You scored 200k damage because your teammates were much worse than you are.  There's a lot of room in the spectrum between unicum and bad.

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27 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

So this is what you would do if you are a normal, mentally sane game designer right: you would try to distribute evenly good players and bad players on each side, let's say the worst is 1 and the best is 10, so on one team you have like:

1,1,3,5,9,9,9    = 37

on the other you have:

3,3,10,5,5,8,1 = 35

 

The 2 points difference? It's unlikely it will be big enough to affect the outcome of the match. 

 

But clearly this is not how WG does things: WG DELIBERATELY pair PLAYERS WHO DO GREAT IN THE MOST RECENT 2 TO  3 MATCHES AND PAIR THEM WITH ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS PALYERS, SO HIS TEAM LOOKS LIKE THIS:

1,1,1,9,5,1,3,3,3

That 9 there? That's you, so very often, you will have either one of these 2 scenarios:

A. You are the only one left because you know what to do and what you are doing, while the enemy team is virtually intact. All your teammates, the DDs rushed into the dead center of the low IQ valley in 2 brothers, the CA got detonated because they play like BBs and give full broad side while spamming APs, your BBs got torped in the first 5 minutes by CVs and DDs.

B. You get to sink 4 ships, but still lose, and insultingly WG reward you with 1086 XP at tier 7, because 1, you lost,  and 2, reasons!

 

 

MM matches ships not Players. 

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18 minutes ago, Cpt_Cupcake said:

I got 202k in a kami.... consider yourself 1 up'ed lol.

Doing that in a Kami is SO different from doing it in a Furry Taco.

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38 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

But clearly this is not how WG does things: WG DELIBERATELY pair PLAYERS WHO DO GREAT IN THE MOST RECENT 2 TO  3 MATCHES AND PAIR THEM WITH ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS PALYERS,

In my OhJim account (feel free to look it up) I have won about 8 games in a row and around 11 of my last 12. If what you say were true, I'd get worse and worse teammates. But I don't, they've been good. A couple of times, they've carried me.

Edited by GoaJim

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23 minutes ago, JediMasterDraco said:

Your damage record is 105k in a Furu.

Screenshot (101).png

Mildly off topic, is the experience listed here the base XP before any modifiers?

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29 minutes ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

So this is what you would do if you are a normal, mentally sane game designer right: you would try to distribute evenly good players and bad players on each side, let's say the worst is 1 and the best is 10, so on one team you have like:

1,1,3,5,9,9,9    = 37

on the other you have:

3,3,10,5,5,8,1 = 35

 

The 2 points difference? It's unlikely it will be big enough to affect the outcome of the match. 

 

But clearly this is not how WG does things: WG DELIBERATELY pair PLAYERS WHO DO GREAT IN THE MOST RECENT 2 TO  3 MATCHES AND PAIR THEM WITH ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS PALYERS, SO HIS TEAM LOOKS LIKE THIS:

1,1,1,9,5,1,3,3,3

That 9 there? That's you, so very often, you will have either one of these 2 scenarios:

A. You are the only one left because you know what to do and what you are doing, while the enemy team is virtually intact. All your teammates, the DDs rushed into the dead center of the low IQ valley in 2 brothers, the CA got detonated because they play like BBs and give full broad side while spamming APs, your BBs got torped in the first 5 minutes by CVs and DDs.

B. You get to sink 4 ships, but still lose, and insultingly WG reward you with 1086 XP at tier 7, because 1, you lost,  and 2, reasons!

 

 

So many problems with this.

  1. Lets say you are right and the metric they use to determine this value is PR. So rather then 1-10 its closer to 500-3000. And then they try to make both sides have the same value. This is such a flawed concept as PR tends to focus on elements that are not based on team play and it is just a horrible measurement.
  2. WG deliberately paring good players together on purpose could be for several factors. There has long been myth and conspiracy theory about karma as well as the fact that DIVs can actually disregard mm balance calculations. Again myth and rumor nothing to support it. This would actually be confirmation bias or the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.
  3. Player choice of how they play is not something WG can do much about. You are gonna get games with DD's and CV's who wont engage dd's, Cruisers thinking they must use that rear gun, BB's yoloing asking to be citadeled or torped, WG has virtually no control over this. And while it is rage inducing everyone suffers it equally.
  4. Kills and damage totals are not a great measure of how well you did. Sure you can argue that 1k is good for a loss, sure. But some of take a loss and still have a higher base xp then the top player of the enemy team. Its rare, it does happen. at 1k on a loss that would be close to about 1500 on a win. That is average in terms of contribution. It is important to remember wg measures things on % per ship and class of ship you deal damage to. So that 20k you put on a bb rather then shooting and maybe getting 10k on a dd will be worth half if not less then what you could have gotten by shooting the dd.
  5. Fact is you should only worry about you. Know your ship/class roles. Know what it can do, what it shouldn't do, and maximize your efforts to win. Winning is more then damage or killing. What you are damaging and killing is more important, as is cap securing and defence. Prioritizing targets such as dd's and cruisers over BB's and learning to use your ap more effectively are going to pay out more in the long run.
  6. Everyone gets a bad run. When this  happens take a break get a drink stretch and come back with a clear mind. If you keep pushing while aggravated you will play badly.
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8 minutes ago, Kizarvexis said:

So if you look at 3, 4, or 5 players as balanced, then the two extremes are unbalanced. So 2/3 of the time, one team or the other will be stacked and you will have a 50/50 shot at being on that stacked team.

A random distribution curve with a high standard deviation looks like a small hill with most of the values congregating around the mean but still spread out. Using your example, there is a small chance that you should get the first two or the last two sets of numbers...those probabilities are on the order of 5%. In other words, 5% of the time you should be on a really great team or one that just utterly fails. 

Again using your example, alot of the time you should be on teams that are competitive against each other which I think the OP is saying is not the case.

But WG claims to only randomly select teams based on ship type and tier.  Players are selected from the queue on these two factors alone. HOWEVER, Divs  of higher rated players have an enormous impact as we have all seen.

I agree with the  OP that adding WR as part of the calculation should be considered but it still won't help in all cases.  My guess is that most of the active player base is between 45 and 58% WR and represents two standard deviations of the mean or 80% of all possible answers.  So Unicoms will still create a pretty heavy "distortion" when they are on opposing team...far more than the impact of one really poor player on your team.

I just wish WG would add WR to the calculation on the test server or perhaps use it in Co-ops and see what the results are.  I have only been playing a bit more than a year actively so perhaps they  have done it in the past.

 

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10 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

Mildly off topic, is the experience listed here the base XP before any modifiers?

I believe it includes the premium time XP buff, but doesn't include things like first win bonus, signals, and camo.  As far as I know, there is no way to get true base XP stats via WG's API.

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3 minutes ago, RightYouAreKen said:

I believe it includes the premium time XP buff,

This would make sense, as my own figure for the Lyon, for example, matches what I know I did in my best random battle ever outside of special events, and before I used premium time. On the other hand, my co-op figures for some mid-tier ships go far beyond what even a very good player is capable of in base XP terms, but are nowhere near what I know I've got once all the modifiers were stacked on.

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23 minutes ago, Umikami said:

Doing that in a Kami is SO different from doing it in a Furry Taco.

Not as different as doing that in a Kami and NOT doing it in a Furry Taco lol.

Edited by Skpstr

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45 minutes ago, Cpt_Cupcake said:

I got 202k in a kami.... consider yourself 1 up'ed lol.

I got 300k in my bass boat with a 50hp outboard a couple of months ago, 16 kills in one game. Just another day at the lake.

 

You shoulda seen the look on that Conqueror's face when I blew him outta the water.

 

Had a bigger one on the line though, but it got away.

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20 minutes ago, BenAubrey said:

A random distribution curve with a high standard deviation looks like a small hill with most of the values congregating around the mean but still spread out. Using your example, there is a small chance that you should get the first two or the last two sets of numbers...those probabilities are on the order of 5%. In other words, 5% of the time you should be on a really great team or one that just utterly fails. 

Again using your example, alot of the time you should be on teams that are competitive against each other which I think the OP is saying is not the case.

But WG claims to only randomly select teams based on ship type and tier.  Players are selected from the queue on these two factors alone. HOWEVER, Divs  of higher rated players have an enormous impact as we have all seen.

I agree with the  OP that adding WR as part of the calculation should be considered but it still won't help in all cases.  My guess is that most of the active player base is between 45 and 58% WR and represents two standard deviations of the mean or 80% of all possible answers.  So Unicoms will still create a pretty heavy "distortion" when they are on opposing team...far more than the impact of one really poor player on your team.

I just wish WG would add WR to the calculation on the test server or perhaps use it in Co-ops and see what the results are.  I have only been playing a bit more than a year actively so perhaps they  have done it in the past.

 

This was a very simple exercise to show that if there are 8 good players out of 24, it's not hard to have them end up stacked on one team or the other purely by chance. No conspiracy needed.  There are only 9 ways 8 of 24 players can be put on two teams after all. So not sure why you are saying that the extremes, 8 on one side and 0 on the other would be only 5% when 0-8 is 11% of the options for the 8 good players. It's 22% when you have 0-8 and 8-0. Want to show some math as to why a random assortment of teams with 8 good players and 16 average/bad players will end up fairly balanced most of the time? Doesn't seem that way as one or the other should end up stacked randomly 2/3 of the time. And you have a 50/50 chance of being on the randomly stacked team if you are one of the 16 other players.

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1 hour ago, AkiyamaSaneyuki_2017 said:

So this is what you would do if you are a normal, mentally sane game designer right: you would try to distribute evenly good players and bad players on each side, let's say the worst is 1 and the best is 10, so on one team you have like:

1,1,3,5,9,9,9    = 37

on the other you have:

3,3,10,5,5,8,1 = 35

 

The 2 points difference? It's unlikely it will be big enough to affect the outcome of the match. 

 

But clearly this is not how WG does things: WG DELIBERATELY pair PLAYERS WHO DO GREAT IN THE MOST RECENT 2 TO  3 MATCHES AND PAIR THEM WITH ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS PALYERS, SO HIS TEAM LOOKS LIKE THIS:

1,1,1,9,5,1,3,3,3

That 9 there? That's you, so very often, you will have either one of these 2 scenarios:

A. You are the only one left because you know what to do and what you are doing, while the enemy team is virtually intact. All your teammates, the DDs rushed into the dead center of the low IQ valley in 2 brothers, the CA got detonated because they play like BBs and give full broad side while spamming APs, your BBs got torped in the first 5 minutes by CVs and DDs.

B. You get to sink 4 ships, but still lose, and insultingly WG reward you with 1086 XP at tier 7, because 1, you lost,  and 2, reasons!

 

 

The game's matchmaker does not match players, it matches ships.

The game does not have a high enough player population playing every day to make splitting up the community into even smaller chunks worthwhile.  This is why there aren't "ranks" for the different player "skill" levels.

But to go along with your example, yes, it is perfectly sane to drop a good player into a crappy match.  Why?  If you you want to get better, you challenge yourself.  So does it not make sense that sometimes you're going to be uptiered and have players on your team who can't pour pee out of a boot with the instructions written on the heel?

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Had this one today, not a single loss on our team and it was over real quick.

Only one person below 50% on our team and only one person above 50% on theirs.

My stats in my shima does not show in MMM  anymore because of a battle limit bug.

My2YXG.png

Edited by Final8ty
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