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Taichunger

Battle Density of Players

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This is the NA data from the familiar Maple syrup hosted site. It appears to be the number of players reaching a certain number of battles played.  For example, the way I understand this, for the week of 4/13 73,464 players played at least one battle, but 7,689 played at least 50. It doesn't say whether Random battles or what.

image.png.0b2fa322cbd6ef4ff33b0e0652dc732b.png

The trend is very clear and needs little comment (just follow the numbers for 50 and 100 battles played). The number of players playing many battles has fallen to 1/3, 1/4, or more in the higher categories. Lots of players are clearly dialing back play because of CVs. Unfortunately no earlier records are available, cant find the records for the comparable period the previous year... Needless to say the numbers are similar for the EU and RU

Battles 4/13/ 4/6/ 3/30/ 3/23/ 3/16/ 3/9/ 3/2/ 2/23/ 2/16/ 2/9/ 2/2/ 1/26/
1 73464 76509 73002 75164 76572 75690 73314 72374 76079 79525 75228 73519
50 7689 7754 11186 10643 12007 12916 9752 9168 9917 8504 11465 13687
100 1039 1031 2108 1923 2254 2629 1539 1638 1910 1222 2166 3469
150 208 177 496 414 461 562 324 372 443 227 446 866
200 57 61 106 92 130 137 62 79 110 54 97 256
250 17 10 33 30 24 28 19 17 31 10 25 70
300 4 2 15 5 15 15 5 7 13 4 6 19
350 2 1 5 7 2 3 2 3 4 3 1 6
400 1 1     2 1 1 1 2     3
450       1     1         1
500       1 2 1     1   1 1
550                 1   1  
600                   1    
650               1     1  
800       1         1      
850     1     1           1
total 82481 85546 86952 88281 91469 91983 85019 83660 88512 89550 89437 91898
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Interesting analysis.  Well done!  The year over year numbers sure would be nice.  So much variability in all this stuff...

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3 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

Except the totals don't seem to mean anything

Fractionating each category against the total might (or might not) show some sort of trend.  If I'm getting what you're driving at.

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I think a negative factor is that the battles played are scaled by 50, dumping everyone that played between 1 and 49 in there. I would rather see that. That said, there is a drop from 3/30 to 13/4 when it comes to people playing 50+ battles, though it could also have to do with events.  Maplesyrup just states battles without any other detail.

Since it's not specified, some of the missing players could just be doing Space Battles that don't get counted.

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20 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

I think a negative factor is that the battles played are scaled by 50, dumping everyone that played between 1 and 49 in there. I would rather see that. That said, there is a drop from 3/30 to 13/4 when it comes to people playing 50+ battles, though it could also have to do with events.  Maplesyrup just states battles without any other detail.

Since it's not specified, some of the missing players could just be doing Space Battles that don't get counted.

Sure. 

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Unfortunately, the CV rework coincided with a number of things including the end of winter break (so students like myself will be on less often) and a number of major game releases.

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I'm pretty sure that maplesyrup only counts random battles. There was something I found when I was playing with their data a couple months back that led me to believe that was the case, but now I can't remember what that was.

Anyway, ranked / clan / space / co-op do not seem to be counted.

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6 hours ago, Taichunger said:

This is the NA data from the familiar Maple syrup hosted site. It appears to be the number of players reaching a certain number of battles played.  For example, the way I understand this, for the week of 4/13 73,464 players played at least one battle, but 7,689 played at least 50. It doesn't say whether Random battles or what.

image.png.0b2fa322cbd6ef4ff33b0e0652dc732b.png

The trend is very clear and needs little comment (just follow the numbers for 50 and 100 battles played). The number of players playing many battles has fallen to 1/3, 1/4, or more in the higher categories. Lots of players are clearly dialing back play because of CVs. Unfortunately no earlier records are available, cant find the records for the comparable period the previous year... Needless to say the numbers are similar for the EU and RU

Battles 4/13/ 4/6/ 3/30/ 3/23/ 3/16/ 3/9/ 3/2/ 2/23/ 2/16/ 2/9/ 2/2/ 1/26/
1 73464 76509 73002 75164 76572 75690 73314 72374 76079 79525 75228 73519
50 7689 7754 11186 10643 12007 12916 9752 9168 9917 8504 11465 13687
100 1039 1031 2108 1923 2254 2629 1539 1638 1910 1222 2166 3469
150 208 177 496 414 461 562 324 372 443 227 446 866
200 57 61 106 92 130 137 62 79 110 54 97 256
250 17 10 33 30 24 28 19 17 31 10 25 70
300 4 2 15 5 15 15 5 7 13 4 6 19
350 2 1 5 7 2 3 2 3 4 3 1 6
400 1 1     2 1 1 1 2     3
450       1     1         1
500       1 2 1     1   1 1
550                 1   1  
600                   1    
650               1     1  
800       1         1      
850     1     1           1
total 82481 85546 86952 88281 91469 91983 85019 83660 88512 89550 89437 91898

 

18 minutes ago, LT_Rusty_SWO said:

I'm pretty sure that maplesyrup only counts random battles. There was something I found when I was playing with their data a couple months back that led me to believe that was the case, but now I can't remember what that was.

Anyway, ranked / clan / space / co-op do not seem to be counted.

You are right. This does not count Co-op battles nor clan battles. Since Space Battles do not collect stats for external use, it is not counting them either.

We have 50 members with only a few not playing at all in the last 2 months. So maplesyrup is capturing only our our PvP mains. 

dIeZUJU.jpg

 

 

 

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Interesting numbers.

I wonder if it's the same person that plays 800 or more games a week. When I first started the game I may have played that many games in a week but along the way I've decided to also have a real life.:Smile_teethhappy:

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6 hours ago, Taichunger said:

This is the NA data from the familiar Maple syrup hosted site. It appears to be the number of players reaching a certain number of battles played.  For example, the way I understand this, for the week of 4/13 73,464 players played at least one battle, but 7,689 played at least 50. It doesn't say whether Random battles or what.

image.png.0b2fa322cbd6ef4ff33b0e0652dc732b.png

The trend is very clear and needs little comment (just follow the numbers for 50 and 100 battles played). The number of players playing many battles has fallen to 1/3, 1/4, or more in the higher categories. Lots of players are clearly dialing back play because of CVs. Unfortunately no earlier records are available, cant find the records for the comparable period the previous year... Needless to say the numbers are similar for the EU and RU

Battles 4/13/ 4/6/ 3/30/ 3/23/ 3/16/ 3/9/ 3/2/ 2/23/ 2/16/ 2/9/ 2/2/ 1/26/
1 73464 76509 73002 75164 76572 75690 73314 72374 76079 79525 75228 73519
50 7689 7754 11186 10643 12007 12916 9752 9168 9917 8504 11465 13687
100 1039 1031 2108 1923 2254 2629 1539 1638 1910 1222 2166 3469
150 208 177 496 414 461 562 324 372 443 227 446 866
200 57 61 106 92 130 137 62 79 110 54 97 256
250 17 10 33 30 24 28 19 17 31 10 25 70
300 4 2 15 5 15 15 5 7 13 4 6 19
350 2 1 5 7 2 3 2 3 4 3 1 6
400 1 1     2 1 1 1 2     3
450       1     1         1
500       1 2 1     1   1 1
550                 1   1  
600                   1    
650               1     1  
800       1         1      
850     1     1           1
total 82481 85546 86952 88281 91469 91983 85019 83660 88512 89550 89437 91898

Correlation isn't causation.

You don't know that people are playing less solely due to CV's, although you are trying like hell to push that opinion down peoples throats.

I mean, my games played goes up and down depending on a myriad of factors, including books I'd rather be reading, a painting that's going well, nice weather....

MEchanics changes are pretty much bottom of the list.

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2 minutes ago, Nukelavee45 said:

Correlation isn't causation.

You don't know that people are playing less solely due to CV's, although you are trying like hell to push that opinion down peoples throats.

I mean, my games played goes up and down depending on a myriad of factors, including books I'd rather be reading, a painting that's going well, nice weather....

MEchanics changes are pretty much bottom of the list.

Obvious agenda is obvious.

He used this same tactic to "prove" that radar has "killed " DD population during the USN cruiser split.

Edited by RyuuohD_NA
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6 minutes ago, Nukelavee45 said:

Correlation isn't causation.

You don't know that people are playing less solely due to CV's, although you are trying like hell to push that opinion down peoples throats.

I mean, my games played goes up and down depending on a myriad of factors, including books I'd rather be reading, a painting that's going well, nice weather....

MEchanics changes are pretty much bottom of the list.

A major rework just happened. Number of games played is down, how much more obvious do you need it?:Smile_trollface:

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3 minutes ago, awiggin said:

A major rework just happened. Number of games played is down, how much more obvious do you need it?:Smile_trollface:

The data presented is incomplete. It is only looking at PvP and *maybe* ranked. It is not counting Space Battles and that mode is running right now. There are the FSW Directives, which you can do in co-op, which maplesyrup is NOT counting. Sorry, hard to come to a conclusion with limited data.

Edited by Kizarvexis

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6 hours ago, Taichunger said:

Except the totals don't seem to mean anything

Not sure what you mean.

It looks to me as if the total is how many players played at least one battle that week.

So last week, 82481 people logged on and played at least one game. 73464 of them played fewer than 50 games, 7689 of them played 50-99 games, and so on.

From that, what I'm seeing is that most of the reduction comes from the 50+ games/week players. Whether they quit playing, or dropped below 50 games, we can't say.

The under 50 number does fluctuate, but doesn't show an undisputable downward trend like the over 50 does.

I'm certainly in the under 50 group, as I'm anywhere from 15-30 games a week.

I'm pro-CV, but I'm sure the reduction of 50+ game players is due to CVs. As far as the vast majority, well, that number is almost identical to what it was the week before the rework, so it's not really dropping.

My interpretation is that, while CVs are a problem in some games, most people aren't playing enough games for it to be any more than a minor annoyance. If you play 10 games a week, maybe 2 are "ruined" by CVs. (just making that ratio up) If you play 99 games, maybe 20 are ruined by CVs. Because you have so many more ruined games, there's a better chance to get multiples in a row, which can end up "ruining" a whole night.

Edited by Skpstr

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20 minutes ago, RyuuohD_NA said:

Obvious agenda is obvious.

He used this same tactic to "prove" that radar has "killed " DD population during the USN cruiser split.

What, numbers? Weird, eh? The DD pop did die off a bit and then recovered.

The same pattern is found across all servers. So it is likely the big fall off is due to switching to space battles etc. The longer term decline, from 13k down to 11k in the 50 games category is CVs, which are a factor in the popularity of Space battles.

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31 minutes ago, Nukelavee45 said:

You don't know that people are playing less solely due to CV's, although you are trying like hell to push that opinion down peoples throats.

I think that is the case though.

But, it's mainly the "hardcore" players that are seeing the reduction. (as I said, the number of <50 games/week players is almost exactly what it is before the rework went live)

To be fair though, the under 50 games group would receive a small boost from over 50 games players dropping down to less than 50 games.

One thing I like about this chart is that it pretty much shows exactly how many people are not playing. We had 92k people playing the week before the rework, and 82k last week.

So it looks like we've lost about 11% of the players, which, although concerning, is NOT the 30% people have been tossing around.

 

 

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You can't look at total games played during a week in a vacuum. You have to look at time of year, as well as what events are going on. During the holidays, between the PEF event, Convoy event, and steel missions, I played a lot. Then my playing tapered off until the RN CV event, then I played a lot again. Then there were weeks of Fly Strike Win without containers, and I played less.

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Interesting numbers but I'm not 100% sold that it's just because of CVs.  I'm one of those playing less but it has nothing to do with CVs.  I'm playing less because the weather is nice around here and I'm more into the outdoors than games.  Not saying that there is no correlation with CVs but it doesn't apply to me.

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8 minutes ago, Skpstr said:

I think that is the case though.

But, it's mainly the "hardcore" players that are seeing the reduction. (as I said, the number of <50 games/week players is almost exactly what it is before the rework went live)

To be fair though, the under 50 games group would receive a small boost from over 50 games players dropping down to less than 50 games.

One thing I like about this chart is that it pretty much shows exactly how many people are not playing. We had 92k people playing the week before the rework, and 82k last week.

So it looks like we've lost about 11% of the players, which, although concerning, is NOT the 30% people have been tossing around.

 

 

Even at that it needs to be laid up against the same month a year ago and then previous years as well.....    Weather changes..daylight savings time.... more people doing things outside?    other game releases... its a wild group of variables.. on top of that this is a 4-5 year old game which has been bleeding players for some time overall.  I don't doubt for one bit that some players are playing less due to CVs... I'm guessing some are playing more due to them as well.  add to that from WG perspective, while losing any player is bad..    change in meta gives new reason for players to spend money.    New players coming in will probably spend more money than old ones..   especially those entrenched players that have ground out entire trees..      

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29 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

What, numbers? Weird, eh? The DD pop did die off a bit and then recovered.

The same pattern is found across all servers. So it is likely the big fall off is due to switching to space battles etc. The longer term decline, from 13k down to 11k in the 50 games category is CVs, which are a factor in the popularity of Space battles.

How do you conclude it’s CVs? Intuition is not science. 

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1 minute ago, RA6E_ said:

Even at that it needs to be laid up against the same month a year ago and then previous years as well.....    Weather changes..daylight savings time.... more people doing things outside?    other game releases... its a wild group of variables.. on top of that this is a 4-5 year old game which has been bleeding players for some time overall. 

True, although we see the kind of fluctuation you would expect from the wild variables, in the majority of players under 50 games. The over 50 group shows a pretty consistent reduction.

But you can't please everybody.....

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People play more than 50 battles a week? I rarely hit that and I thought I was already spending too much time on this game.

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35 minutes ago, Skpstr said:

I think that is the case though.

But, it's mainly the "hardcore" players that are seeing the reduction. (as I said, the number of <50 games/week players is almost exactly what it is before the rework went live)

To be fair though, the under 50 games group would receive a small boost from over 50 games players dropping down to less than 50 games.

One thing I like about this chart is that it pretty much shows exactly how many people are not playing. We had 92k people playing the week before the rework, and 82k last week.

So it looks like we've lost about 11% of the players, which, although concerning, is NOT the 30% people have been tossing around.

 

 

Maplesyrup is NOT counting co-op, space and clan battles. If it was, I would show up in the numbers and I am not. So it is counting PvP and maybe ranked. That very well could account for the 11%. Along with taxes, baseball season starting this month, the weather turning nicer, etc, etc. Without more data, those are all guesses.

Edited by Kizarvexis

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Clearly this is do to space battles. 

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