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Daniel_Allan_Clark

Not sure why I'm winning

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I have now played over 20 battles in my Ranger...with just less than a 70% win rate...

I've finally got a ship that specializes in dive bombers...which the RTS version was never the design of the class.

What puzzles me is that i have no idea WHY i am routinely successful at getting wins in the ship. I dont do much damage, I'm not intentionally scouting for wins...i dont really carry.

Is this just a statistical anomaly or am I doing something right without realizing it?

#Confused

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Sounds like you are doing just enough of each to be a major influence for your team.

 

I actually liked the Ranger alot after the remake.

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11 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I have now played over 20 battles in my Ranger...with just less than a 70% win rate...

I've finally got a ship that specializes in dive bombers...which the RTS version was never the design of the class.

What puzzles me is that i have no idea WHY i am routinely successful at getting wins in the ship. I dont do much damage, I'm not intentionally scouting for wins...i dont really carry.

Is this just a statistical anomaly or am I doing something right without realizing it?

#Confused

Success is like a cat,

The more you chase it the more it runs away … 

When you stop caring about the damn thing it comes to you :)

  • Cool 1

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4 minutes ago, Commander_367 said:

Success is like a cat,

The more you chase it the more it runs away … 

When you stop caring about the damn thing it comes to you :)

I'm an engineer, this 'ignorance is bliss' mentality is anathema to me...

;)

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11 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I'm an engineer, this 'ignorance is bliss' mentality is anathema to me...;)

You want reasons - I'll give you reasons!

1) Ranger and Midway came out on top of the nerf wave and are in a sweet spot atm

2) RN CVs are flavor of the month and being promoted - bombers right?

3) T8 is low hanging fruit since most CVs are horrible - uptiered, you are an asset to better players and CVs … downtiered, you are able to carry 

4) you are an engineer, therefore smart and a quick learner :)

 

NB: I have no idea what I'm talking about and I don't play CVs - happy?

 

Edited by Commander_367

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It's not a statistical anomaly.  Twenty games isn't enough to get a good stat.  A purely random run of 20 will result in 70% about 6% of the time.  Said another way, if 100 players played 20 games, with a purely 50/50 outcome each game, then six of those 100 players will be sitting on a 70% winrate.

So...it could be you.  Or it could be RNG.  Not enough to tell.

That said, winning in a CV isn't always doing damage (or even scoring well).  A CV can contribute significantly in some areas where there is no reward (points-wise).  So if you are winning....then keep doing what you're doing to win and don't worry about damage or points.

Edit:  A good example of facilitating a win while getting zero points is when you save your last flight (that could attack a DD) and use it to perma spot the DD instead...so your team can kill it.  There are ZERO points in this exercise for the CV captain.  But it can make a big difference in some games.   

Edited by Soshi_Sone

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If you have a 70% win rate after 200 matches, then not only is the Ranger an OP ship, you would also be an OP player.  After 20 matches ...?

I have won 14 matches in a row and lost 13 matches in a row that I can recall over my ships career, sometimes you just catch the right teams and you don't do anything monumentally stupid to get in the way of a winning team.  i'll be waiting to see your "Screw this game, I am at 40% for the last 50 matches" thread sometime this summer.

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3 minutes ago, BiggieD61 said:

If you have a 70% win rate after 200 matches, then not only is the Ranger an OP ship, you would also be an OP player.  After 20 matches ...?

I have won 14 matches in a row and lost 13 matches in a row that I can recall over my ships career, sometimes you just catch the right teams and you don't do anything monumentally stupid to get in the way of a winning team.  i'll be waiting to see your "Screw this game, I am at 40% for the last 50 matches" thread sometime this summer.

Maybe.

I certainly felt that in every other ship over the last week. I think in the last two days I lost every battle when I wasn't at the helm of my CV...

...I went and played some Subnautica to clear my angst with my teammates!

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It is probably a statistical anomaly, but if you are outplaying the red CV player, you are contributing to a win.

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31 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I have now played over 20 battles in my Ranger...with just less than a 70% win rate...

I've finally got a ship that specializes in dive bombers...which the RTS version was never the design of the class.

What puzzles me is that i have no idea WHY i am routinely successful at getting wins in the ship. I dont do much damage, I'm not intentionally scouting for wins...i dont really carry.

Is this just a statistical anomaly or am I doing something right without realizing it?

#Confused

I think CVs influence in game is not necessarily just a damage driven reality.  I watch Gaishu stream a lot and he often has  huge damage games but still loses them...and by monster I mean really high..often surpassing 200-250K  at T10.   He is a monster damage farmer almost always picking a target that is easiest to hit. .  Most of the time he seems to favor farming damage over tactical map advantage.. almost never focuses DDs until late...As a matter of fact in reality he is  so good at farming that he still overcomes the enemy team with sheer output more often that not.   He is an exception in that and the most effecient I've seen with literally no wasted output.   I think that a very tactically aware player can influence game outcome just by being in the right place at the right time.. scouting, harassing DDs,  disrupting pushes... bailing out a troubled teammate.. map denial,  and resetting caps.  Just ability to be present quickly where ever is needed on the map is very unique to the class.  Also I think a lot of players still seem to be very cautious of planes.. I think a lot of it is experience with the old RTS death strike CVs.     Many times I fly planes to a flank and every single ship in that flank will start veering away.  Effectively stopping a push just with presence.   I figure as they start coming to the reality that the alpha isn't there, they'll start realizing that avoiding them to that extent isn't worth the time takes to get back on track to their objective.      

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I've been experiencing this lately, but in a variety of ships at various tiers.  I am on an extended winning streak that cannot be explained by the quality of my play.  I have good games and win.  I finish near the bottom of my team and win.  There is no logical explanation for it, other than that, if you play long enough, these streaks will occur regardless of your play.  I decided to just consider it as compensation for all those great games I played that my teammates managed to throw away.

Edited by Seaneroo

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@novalesk

Divisionng with a good CV player can really make a huge difference.  That player can spot for you and even alter the enemy's focus away from you.  This is especially valuable if you are driving a DD.  While it doesn't reward the CV player directly, it makes a big difference in outcome of a battle.

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I was on a bit of a winning streak on my alternate account with the hermes

i am having quite a bit of success in it as long as you know which T5s to avoid when uptiered

The bombers for RN CVs are surprisingly easier to aim than DBs but that might just be me, the bombs do less damage but you get more hits. these are especially effective against DDs and CLs.

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I think it's just luck.... On the Langley ended up with a 67% winrate after 49 battles... and on the Ranger 38% winrate after 21 battles.

I really don't see my CV's play carrying, anything.

Edited by Hydra_360ci

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3 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I have now played over 20 battles in my Ranger...with just less than a 70% win rate...

I've finally got a ship that specializes in dive bombers...which the RTS version was never the design of the class.

What puzzles me is that i have no idea WHY i am routinely successful at getting wins in the ship. I dont do much damage, I'm not intentionally scouting for wins...i dont really carry.

Is this just a statistical anomaly or am I doing something right without realizing it?

#Confused

Nothing personal but I think it is just a small sample size and a bit of luck... I do not see anything in your ranger stats that is indicative of doing something really well other than maybe placing your float fighters above important/vital targets. If you were bombing DDs and thus having a lower average damage resulting in wins would make sense, but your average exp of 900 does not correlate with that assumption, especially considering you are rewarded more exp for winning. Whatever you are doing, just keep doing it :cap_like:

 

11761f248018bb05e11449824cf820e7.png

 

                     
Edited by FratStar4Life

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3 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I have now played over 20 battles in my Ranger...with just less than a 70% win rate...

I've finally got a ship that specializes in dive bombers...which the RTS version was never the design of the class.

What puzzles me is that i have no idea WHY i am routinely successful at getting wins in the ship. I dont do much damage, I'm not intentionally scouting for wins...i dont really carry.

Is this just a statistical anomaly or am I doing something right without realizing it?

#Confused

I'd say not to analyze it too much. You may just have intuitively "grokked" the ship. I'm doing the same in my Gearing. I don't want to analyze my play too much right now because I'm afraid that I'll do something to ruin my streak.

Remember that wins are not always about how much damage you do individually. It could be that, since the rework, I'm spending more time spotting for the team and being more sneaky in my Gearing because I'm trying to stay away from planes. Perhaps you are doing some excellent spotting for the team, which results in more targets for them to shoot at. 

 

Edited by Snargfargle

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3 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I have now played over 20 battles in my Ranger...with just less than a 70% win rate...

I've finally got a ship that specializes in dive bombers...which the RTS version was never the design of the class.

What puzzles me is that i have no idea WHY i am routinely successful at getting wins in the ship. I dont do much damage, I'm not intentionally scouting for wins...i dont really carry.

Is this just a statistical anomaly or am I doing something right without realizing it?

#Confused

I've been busy and haven't been playing as much lately.  Don't worry, once I get going again you'll be back to your losing ways.  :cap_rambo:

 

(Real Answer: 20 games isn't enough to establish a trend.  31 is the absolute minimum.  100 is better.)

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Normality has been restored...

It was a statistical anomaly. I am now on a 7 game losing streak...could have ended it this morning but failed to hit a 55 hp Nelson with my last DB...because I kept pressing the dive when I didnt have too.

Dang.

:)

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On 3/13/2019 at 12:19 PM, Soshi_Sone said:

It's not a statistical anomaly.  Twenty games isn't enough to get a good stat.  A purely random run of 20 will result in 70% about 6% of the time.  Said another way, if 100 players played 20 games, with a purely 50/50 outcome each game, then six of those 100 players will be sitting on a 70% winrate.

So...it could be you.  Or it could be RNG.  Not enough to tell.

That said, winning in a CV isn't always doing damage (or even scoring well).  A CV can contribute significantly in some areas where there is no reward (points-wise).  So if you are winning....then keep doing what you're doing to win and don't worry about damage or points.

Edit:  A good example of facilitating a win while getting zero points is when you save your last flight (that could attack a DD) and use it to perma spot the DD instead...so your team can kill it.  There are ZERO points in this exercise for the CV captain.  But it can make a big difference in some games.   

This.  I have a 74% WR in my ARP Kirishima with 106 games.  You'd think that's a good sample size, but my ARP Kongo which is exactly the same, has a WR of only 48% with an also decent, if not as good sample size of 67.  Kirishima says I am a unicum Kongo captain.  Kongo says I am a below average Kongo captain.  Which is correct?

The real truth is, I got pretty lucky with my teams in the Kirishima, and unlucky with my teams in the Kongo.  RNGesus is the only winner.  I'm not a 74% captain, nor am I a 48% captain.

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1 hour ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Normality has been restored...

It was a statistical anomaly. I am now on a 7 game losing streak...could have ended it this morning but failed to hit a 55 hp Nelson with my last DB...because I kept pressing the dive when I didnt have too.

Dang.

:)

Again, not an anomaly.  Strings of a result are not anomalies but are a NORMAL part of a random process. In a 50/50 random process (say flipping a coin), if you you do not get a string of heads or string of tails over a certain number of flips, that is an indication the process is NOT random.  I know this doesn't seem logical at the first level.  It's doesn't seem logical to get multiple heads or tails in a row.  But that's the way it works.

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10 minutes ago, Soshi_Sone said:

Again, not an anomaly.  Strings of a result are not anomalies but are a NORMAL part of a random process. In a 50/50 random process (say flipping a coin), if you you do not get a string of heads or string of tails over a certain number of flips, that is an indication the process is NOT random.  I know this doesn't seem logical at the first level.  It's doesn't seem logical to get multiple heads or tails in a row.  But that's the way it works.

Exactly.

I'm agreeing that the previous high number of wins was a statistical anomaly, just like the current streak of losses.

I'm not some ignorant unicum. Just an average CV player...

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