Jump to content
You need to play a total of 5 battles to post in this section.
Sparverius1

matchmaking concern

15 comments in this topic

Recommended Posts

0
[DUDS]
Members
3 posts
1,740 battles

I've been playing this game for 6 months or so, about a thousand games in.  Slowly getting better, I hope anyway.  There is something I don't understand, losing streaks.  It is not unusual to lose 6, 7, 8 games in a row.  Okay, I'm open to the fact that I'm not very good.  Actually, I'm not that bad, and am usually in the top end of scoring for my losing team.  Even so, the odds of a random matchmaking resulting in 8 constitutive  losses seems to be beyond random chance, even if I just hid behind an island each game.  When i look at the winning teams members they often have 2 or 3 players with ten or 15 thousand games in, and great stats.  My losing team does has typical players like me.  Random chance should even this sort of thing out, but that does not seem to be what is happening.  Is there a chance the matchmaking is not random?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
439
[TDRB]
Members
1,801 posts
6,089 battles
7 minutes ago, Sparverius1 said:

I've been playing this game for 6 months or so, about a thousand games in.  Slowly getting better, I hope anyway.  There is something I don't understand, losing streaks.  It is not unusual to lose 6, 7, 8 games in a row.  Okay, I'm open to the fact that I'm not very good.  Actually, I'm not that bad, and am usually in the top end of scoring for my losing team.  Even so, the odds of a random matchmaking resulting in 8 constitutive  losses seems to be beyond random chance, even if I just hid behind an island each game.  When i look at the winning teams members they often have 2 or 3 players with ten or 15 thousand games in, and great stats.  My losing team does has typical players like me.  Random chance should even this sort of thing out, but that does not seem to be what is happening.  Is there a chance the matchmaking is not random?  

Matchmaking has been a heated topic since I started playing a year ago. Player stats are not part of the MM matrix. There have been conspiracy theories posted in the forum claiming MM is not random but I've seen little evidence of such. People complain about a 2 for 8 night but don't say a word about going 6 of 8 on the win side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,344 posts
8,689 battles
2 minutes ago, kgh52 said:

Matchmaking has been a heated topic since I started playing a year ago. Player stats are not part of the MM matrix. There have been conspiracy theories posted in the forum claiming MM is not random but I've seen little evidence of such. People complain about a 2 for 8 night but don't say a word about going 6 of 8 on the win side.

I would, but I know it would piss off alot of forum users. So I dont. (only sometimes)

Edited by Octavian_of_Roma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
176
[B2P]
Members
565 posts
14,957 battles

Just quickly looking at your stats, your average damage is rising up, but your PR and win rate are dropping.  From what I can see you seem to be having problems finishing off enemies, as your avg kills per game are 0.59.  Obviously, the more reds you kill, the better chances your team has to win.  So I would say work on that aspect of your game.

As far as matchmaking being random, it would appear to be so.  Though at times I even wonder if it is somehow taking into account other factors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,544 posts
13,172 battles

In truly random events, streaks happen.  We as humans like to notice these streaks, but every game is a discrete event and just like flipping a coin, you can get 8 “heads” in a row.  Now, your play can impact the game, I like to think that 40% of the time you will lose no matter how you play, 40% of the time you will win no matter what you do, and about 20% of the time your play will impact the game one way or the other (unless you are a tier 10 IJN CV in the current meta - influence is closer to 80%).  When I was just starting out I was an extreme potato- through my for 1000 games had a 43% win rate, so feel that I was a drag on the team because my poor play was impacting the 20% of the games that my poor play influenced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
848
[OPRAH]
Beta Testers
4,473 posts
14,393 battles

@Sparverius1 Consider this scenario! There are only 24 people playing over the course of several hours. They all choose ships that are within the proper tier range to be put into battle and enter the queue. The MM makes 2 teams picks a random map and off you go! Over and over for that several hours. even with so few players every match up is random

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,300
[INTEL]
Members
9,241 posts
26,899 battles
44 minutes ago, Sparverius1 said:

  Even so, the odds of a random matchmaking resulting in 8 constitutive  losses seems to be beyond random chance, even if I just hid behind an island each game.

Nope. Quite high, actually. If both teams have a 50% chance to win, then 2^8  = 1/256 chance of an eight game losing streak. On a server with 000s of games a day, such streaks will occur often. 

I recommend playing T7 and divisioning with decent players. At that tier your odds of recovering a match when you're down two ships early are better, and divisioning will raise your win rates and ensure long losing streaks are less likely.  Since switching almost exclusively to T7, and reducing my T9-10 gameplay to almost nothing, I've won 214 of 307 T7 matches for a 69% win rate playing divisioned. My div mates are awesome players.....  

Good luck!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3,779
[GWG]
[GWG]
Alpha Tester, In AlfaTesters
17,418 posts
10,140 battles
16 minutes ago, Panzer1113 said:

In truly random events, streaks happen.  We as humans like to notice these streaks, but every game is a discrete event and just like flipping a coin, you can get 8 “heads” in a row.  Now, your play can impact the game, I like to think that 40% of the time you will lose no matter how you play, 40% of the time you will win no matter what you do, and about 20% of the time your play will impact the game one way or the other (unless you are a tier 10 IJN CV in the current meta - influence is closer to 80%).  When I was just starting out I was an extreme potato- through my for 1000 games had a 43% win rate, so feel that I was a drag on the team because my poor play was impacting the 20% of the games that my poor play influenced.

We also tend to notice the bad events far more than we do the good events.

  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
651 posts
5,656 battles
30 minutes ago, Octavian_of_Roma said:

I would, but I know it would piss off alot of forum users. So I dont. (only sometimes)

Personally I'd prefer closer games where skill can make a larger impact. Sure, you win 6 out of 8 games, but how many were complete blowouts where you barely hit 100k or even 50k before the enemy team just all dies.

Winning is less rewarding than winning and performing well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,344 posts
8,689 battles
4 minutes ago, The_Painted_Target said:

Personally I'd prefer closer games where skill can make a larger impact. Sure, you win 6 out of 8 games, but how many were complete blowouts where you barely hit 100k or even 50k before the enemy team just all dies.

Winning is less rewarding than winning and performing well.

I have many close games. I play enough to see the wide variance. (Ive run into you many times now painted in game, probably half have been close games, half blowouts one way or the other)

Close games are fun. Blowouts are fine to me, they just end in a shorter time frame, which result in lower credits/xp typically for me. 

Edited by Octavian_of_Roma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
0
[DUDS]
Members
3 posts
1,740 battles
52 minutes ago, Panzer1113 said:

In truly random events, streaks happen.  We as humans like to notice these streaks, but every game is a discrete event and just like flipping a coin, you can get 8 “heads” in a row.  Now, your play can impact the game, I like to think that 40% of the time you will lose no matter how you play, 40% of the time you will win no matter what you do, and about 20% of the time your play will impact the game one way or the other (unless you are a tier 10 IJN CV in the current meta - influence is closer to 80%).  When I was just starting out I was an extreme potato- through my for 1000 games had a 43% win rate, so feel that I was a drag on the team because my poor play was impacting the 20% of the games that my poor play influenced.

Thanks for the input.  What did you do differently to get out of potatoville?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
0
[DUDS]
Members
3 posts
1,740 battles
33 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

Nope. Quite high, actually. If both teams have a 50% chance to win, then 2^8  = 1/256 chance of an eight game losing streak. On a server with 000s of games a day, such streaks will occur often. 

I recommend playing T7 and divisioning with decent players. At that tier your odds of recovering a match when you're down two ships early are better, and divisioning will raise your win rates and ensure long losing streaks are less likely.  Since switching almost exclusively to T7, and reducing my T9-10 gameplay to almost nothing, I've won 214 of 307 T7 matches for a 69% win rate playing divisioned. My div mates are awesome players.....  

Good luck!

I hear about getting into a division, but don't know anyone else in wows.  it would be good to have some friends out there to team with.  Is there a way to meet players with similar skill levels to be in a division?

 

1 hour ago, DreadRaybo said:

Just quickly looking at your stats, your average damage is rising up, but your PR and win rate are dropping.  From what I can see you seem to be having problems finishing off enemies, as your avg kills per game are 0.59.  Obviously, the more reds you kill, the better chances your team has to win.  So I would say work on that aspect of your game.

As far as matchmaking being random, it would appear to be so.  Though at times I even wonder if it is somehow taking into account other factors.

Thanks for the advice!  How does one look at their scoring trends?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,300
[INTEL]
Members
9,241 posts
26,899 battles
20 minutes ago, Sparverius1 said:

I hear about getting into a division, but don't know anyone else in wows.  it would be good to have some friends out there to team with.  Is there a way to meet players with similar skill levels to be in a division?

Yeah, join our Operations server on Discord, which has players of many different skill levels. We do operations together in divs of 7. It's a great way to meet people. PM me privately for a Discord invite.

But what about your clan members? Don't they play with you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,544 posts
13,172 battles
2 hours ago, Sparverius1 said:

Thanks for the input.  What did you do differently to get out of potatoville?

Invested in the game - found ships and classes that suited my playstyle  - I started out on US BBs, started watching vids on things like aiming, strategy, angling - invested in my ships - worked multiple ship lines until I found ones I clicked with - bought some premiums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
176
[B2P]
Members
565 posts
14,957 battles
On 2/5/2019 at 4:53 PM, Sparverius1 said:

Thanks for the advice!  How does one look at their scoring trends?

I tend to use na.wows-numbers.com.  You can look yourself or others up there, and they have a bunch of various stats and graphs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×