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BC124

Does WG change the crate drop rate??

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So I always wonder why WG does not publish the crate drop rate? They pride themselves on data collection, but yet nothing is released in regards to actual numbers with the crates?

Do they use marketing scams, keeping the drops high in the beginning and changing them with more they sell??

I do not understand how an RNG based game does not publish the rates for complete transparency.

anyone have any data on this topic?

Edited by BC124
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IB4L

All I can say is my 2nd purchase was far better than my 1st one with ships, doubloons and other good stuff. In years past sometimes it was my very late purchases of crates that did best. You just don't know what you'll get.

As far as scams, please provide some support?

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15 minutes ago, 1SneakyDevil said:

As far as scams, please provide some support?

**this is a simplified example***

Suppose day 3 of the crates in the shop the ship drop rate is 15%, then once news is generated  WG changes it to 8%. This way they sell more crates based off a false drop rate.

This is why they don't publish the rates so they are free to change them as they see fit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSDGzxPLE1GLjQlVPs_Kv3hGyuvTebRY3EhTWllANNd8vqh0pnIkhtzOeon_0fQem8IrXZeWmbeh9TS/pubhtml#

 

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32 minutes ago, BC124 said:

**this is a simplified example***

Suppose day 3 of the crates in the shop the ship drop rate is 15%, then once news is generated  WG changes it to 8%. This way they sell more crates based off a false drop rate.

What's the point of that though? If it becomes 8%, word spreads about that, and then they sell fewer crates. Just keep it at 15%, and sell more crates.

It would be different if they were giving away prizes that had an actual real world value, where the more they have away, the more it would cost them.

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They are more likely to change from year to year and not in the middle of a season.   Drop rate will be IP and they don't want that info potentially used by other companies.  F2P game companies can't be 100% transparent...  Hell - companies in general, when talking about IP, can't be completely transparent.

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14 minutes ago, CylonRed said:

They are more likely to change from year to year and not in the middle of a season.   Drop rate will be IP and they don't want that info potentially used by other companies.  F2P game companies can't be 100% transparent...  Hell - companies in general, when talking about IP, can't be completely transparent.

Drop rate is not a trade secret. That is complete bull. Do you work for WG or something? They hide the payouts to get money from suckers who overpay.

Gaming of the drop rate is why jurisdictions regulate stuff like this, or ban such gambling altogether.

I know people in the online gambling space and can say for a fact that tweaking rates is not only done, but it is common, and a major attraction for moving your business online and out of the regulators’ grasp.

I would be surprised if WG didn’t deviously change drop rates, not only within a season but even on a per-player basis. IMHO, it’s guilty until proven innocent in this arena, and I personally would never spend even a cent on virtual goods with any kind of pseudorandom payout.

Edited by n00bot
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Just now, n00bot said:

Drop rate is not a trade secret that is complete [edited].  Do you work for WG or something?

Gaming of the drop rate is why jurisdictions regulate stuff like this, or ban such gambling altogether.

I know people in the online gambling space and can say for a fact that tweaking rates is not only done, but it is common, and a major attraction for moving your business online and out of the regulators’ grasp.

I would be surprised if WG didn’t deviously change drop rates, not only within a season but even on a per-player basis. IMHO, it’s guilty until proven innocent in this arena, and I personally would never spend even a cent on virtual goods with any kind of pseudorandom factor.

I do not work for WG but  I am in IT and no - they don't want other companies top know that data just like othger companies don't want to give theirs out - business 101 - incredibly basic business actually. 

From my experience and others have proven is that WG does not do the gift boxes the same as other companies that DID have you 100% gamble.  The boxes may not have what you want but I have yet to see a time where they gave you less money than you spent. 

As for if you will purchase - I really don't care if you do or do not but frankly 99% of your post has ZERO to do with my post you quoted.

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1 hour ago, BC124 said:

**this is a simplified example***

Suppose day 3 of the crates in the shop the ship drop rate is 15%, then once news is generated  WG changes it to 8%. This way they sell more crates based off a false drop rate.

This is why they don't publish the rates so they are free to change them as they see fit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSDGzxPLE1GLjQlVPs_Kv3hGyuvTebRY3EhTWllANNd8vqh0pnIkhtzOeon_0fQem8IrXZeWmbeh9TS/pubhtml#

 

So basically you have nothing more than theory (what, if or but) because of what other gaming companies have done & potentially are in trouble over. I'd like to agree with you but need more than what you posted.

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43 minutes ago, 1SneakyDevil said:

nothing more than theory

agreed all just a theory. Just asking... That one guy's spread sheet is interesting.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSDGzxPLE1GLjQlVPs_Kv3hGyuvTebRY3EhTWllANNd8vqh0pnIkhtzOeon_0fQem8IrXZeWmbeh9TS/pubhtml#

But just recently between a group of members we totally missed all those percentages, I mean not even close. So that is why I am just asking. Maybe a spread sheet like this would be useful like for the first 20 days, mid 20 days, and last 20 days...

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13 minutes ago, BC124 said:

agreed all just a theory. Just asking... That one guy's spread sheet is interesting.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSDGzxPLE1GLjQlVPs_Kv3hGyuvTebRY3EhTWllANNd8vqh0pnIkhtzOeon_0fQem8IrXZeWmbeh9TS/pubhtml#

But just recently between a group of members we totally missed all those percentages, I mean not even close. So that is why I am just asking. Maybe a spread sheet like this would be useful like for the first 20 days, mid 20 days, and last 20 days...

My own experience was 5 - $5 crates when they first came out and it was all flags and camos. Then waited a week & a half and purchased 5 - $3 crates and got Mutsu, Krispy Kreme, doubloons, FXP and flags.

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2 hours ago, n00bot said:

They hide the payouts to get money from suckers who overpay.

 

Why do you think the lottery rakes in tens of billions of dollars? Why do you think casinos do the same thing? Very few people are actually winning. They pay for the thrill of having hope that they might win it big someday.

WG has no need to publish payouts. Players keep track of tens of thousands of drops and publish the results themselves. Finding out what the payouts are empirically is part of the fun of the game. Not to mention that many people would't have anything to do if they didn't have something to complain about.

Edited by Snargfargle

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3 hours ago, BC124 said:

So I always wonder why WG does not publish the crate drop rate? They pride themselves on data collection, but yet nothing is released in regards to actual numbers with the crates?

Do they use marketing scams, keeping the drops high in the beginning and changing them with more they sell??

I do not understand how an RNG based game does not publish the rates for complete transparency.

anyone have any data on this topic?

No casino publishes the specific programming of their slot machines.

WarGaming is no different.

If you don't want to lose, stop gambling.

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15% 1 %    5% it dont matter :)

1 guy will get like 10 ships in 15 crates and another will get zero :)  welcome to RNG

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16 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

No casino publishes the specific programming of their slot machines.

WarGaming is no different.

If you don't want to lose, stop gambling.

Not specific programming, but some casinos do publish their payout rates! Generally it’s when the payout is near the legal maximum rate. That’s right, there’s often a legal limit on the maximum payout! This is to prevent teasing people with false results: casinos put the highest payout machines on the end of rows and near entrances: high visibility locations where everyone can see someone winning.  Then you sit down at one of the regular slots that’s tuned down to 80%, assuming it has the same rate as the specially-placed winner, and proceed to lose all your money. This is at old school casinos that DO have regulation, and trust me, the unregulated online world is much much worse. One unnamed online gaming organization—I know the CEO personally—makes sure everyone wins something early on then turns down the rate to recover the money. Then they figure out if you’re a whale or not... whales get their money sucked dry but smaller players have a better win rate so they’ll tell their friends about the site. There’s a lot of psychology research in gambling and believe me, they exploit all of it and then some. I’d say the psychologists are behind.

The “big” surveys on Reddit etc are not capturing the data needed to analyze the kind of trickery I mentioned above.  They just throw everyone’s numbers into a big blob and assume the rates are the same for everyone across time.  That assumption is very likely invalid.

Again, do not touch crates unless, as Snargfargle mentioned, you enjoy the thrill of gambling itself and are willing to pay for that experience, not the stuff you get.

Edited by n00bot
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20 hours ago, CylonRed said:

I do not work for WG but  I am in IT and no - they don't want other companies top know that data just like othger companies don't want to give theirs out - business 101 - incredibly basic business actually.

Sorry, you’re right, I did misspeak. It’s only not a trade secret if it’s simple and honest, like saying “98% slots,” which is a number often advertised in Vegas. If they are playing games like I mentioned above, then absolutely yes it’s a trade secret.

Edited by n00bot

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18 hours ago, Rilak said:

15% 1 %    5% it dont matter :)

1 guy will get like 10 ships in 15 crates and another will get zero :)  welcome to RNG

Except it's not 'random', which is the point. It's targetted by the data gathered by the casino.

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On 12/30/2018 at 4:20 PM, BC124 said:

**this is a simplified example***

Suppose day 3 of the crates in the shop the ship drop rate is 15%, then once news is generated  WG changes it to 8%. This way they sell more crates based off a false drop rate.

This is why they don't publish the rates so they are free to change them as they see fit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSDGzxPLE1GLjQlVPs_Kv3hGyuvTebRY3EhTWllANNd8vqh0pnIkhtzOeon_0fQem8IrXZeWmbeh9TS/pubhtml#

 

no reason to change the drop rates,. the goods are digital and cost zero to produce aat this point. they just want to sell as many as possible.  they want happy buyers who get slots of stuff so they will buy more next time. 

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