Jump to content
You need to play a total of 5 battles to post in this section.
Daniel_Allan_Clark

SuperContainer Drop Rate

46 comments in this topic

Recommended Posts

Members
2,154 posts
1,247 battles

I have been reading posts around the community for the past few months where the supercontainer drop rate from the daily crates has been quoted as being variously 1%, 1.5%, 2% (Try your luck), or 3% (Try your luck).

Does anyone have a link to where WarGaming has actually stated that this is the odds for each roll? Or is this just a case of people pulling a number from their but and thinking it's real?

IMO, the actual drop rate is much lower than 1%...and is modified based on the users account history. After all, there is no such thing as actual randomness in a programed RNG. In addition, why wouldn't WarGaming have their RNG serve the marketing interests of the company?

I'm sure we all noticed that we got a super container in the first few containers we earned. That wasn't random or lucky. That was marketing.

If the account (like mine) has never spent any money on the game...why should it be rewarded with a super container?

If the account has spent money in the past but hasn't spent money in the last six months, and the games played is trending downward...why wouldn't WarGaming give a super container?

I don't have a problem with WG 'rigging' the super container drop system. In fact, I encourage it. (I know it's happening, merely from the reality that we do not have the capability to actually generate random numbers from a program anyway). What I want to do is dispel the myth of the 3% drop rate that seems to be floating around the internet. It gets really annoying seeing something that can't possibly be true swaying impressionable young captains into making foolish financial decisions.

  • Funny 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,836 posts
9,429 battles

WG has never stated it as far as Im aware. 

The estimates are based off players who collected data. 

The drop rate could be 50% and you could still open 100 and not receive a single one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
2,154 posts
1,247 battles
4 minutes ago, Octavian_of_Roma said:

WG has never stated it as far as Im aware. 

The estimates are based off players who collected data. 

The drop rate could be 50% and you could still open 100 and not receive a single one. 

That's what I thought.

The user estimates are only useful if everyone has the same chance to collect a super container...but why would we? That would be a massive missed opportunity to influence us by WG...

  • Boring 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30
[DDCO]
[DDCO]
Members
98 posts
8,589 battles

It's true....

When containers was first introduced, I got like 5 super containers the first couple of weeks. Now ..I'm lucky to get 1 a month...and I play every day.

I probably get 1 super container for every 100 regular containers.....so......ya....about 1% chance.

I would not be surprised if the game has all that stuff rigged.

They do have all the stats of every player...how much they spend, how often they log in and out..ect

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3,725
[PSP]
Members
8,131 posts

From people who have collectively recorded thousands of supercontainer drops, it appears that the standard drop rate is about 1.5% and the "try your luck" drop rate is 3%. This is about what I've found myself. The odds of getting a ship in a supercontainer are probably about 1%. I've gotten one ship from a supercontainer in two years.

My best hauls:

  • 30 days Premium time.
  • 1000 Doubloons.
  • USS Arizona. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
2,154 posts
1,247 battles
4 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

From people who have collectively recorded thousands of supercontainer drops, it appears that the standard drop rate is about 1.5% and the "try your luck" drop rate is 3%. This is about what I've found myself. The odds of getting a ship in a supercontainer are probably about 1%. I've gotten one ship from a supercontainer in two years.

My best hauls:

  • 30 days Premium time.
  • 1000 Doubloons.
  • USS Arizona. 

Ah yes, the typical marketing post.

I have received 1 super container past the initial month of my account. My drop rate is significantly less than 1%.

Do you have a premium account?

Have you spent money on the game?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30
[DDCO]
[DDCO]
Members
98 posts
8,589 battles
11 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

From people who have collectively recorded thousands of supercontainer drops, it appears that the standard drop rate is about 1.5% and the "try your luck" drop rate is 3%. This is about what I've found myself. The odds of getting a ship in a supercontainer are probably about 1%. I've gotten one ship from a supercontainer in two years.

My best hauls:

  • 30 days Premium time.
  • 1000 Doubloons.
  • USS Arizona. 

so....we looking at ....

1% -3% drop rate for a super container.

AND THEN.

1% chance it will be a free ship...soooooo

you need about 100 super containers to get a free ship

So basically.....you need to earn about 7-10k containers to get a free ship??

Edited by Renuz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
2,154 posts
1,247 battles
6 minutes ago, Renuz said:

so....we looking at ....

1% -3% drop rate for a super container.

AND THEN.

1% chance it will be a free ship...soooooo

you need about 100 super containers to get a free ship

So basically.....you need to earn about 7-10k containers to get a free ship??

Yep...and that's with the generous drop rate he must be getting.

I've pretty much determined it is a mathematical impossibility for someone like me to get a free ship. It would be the equivalent of winning the lottery, when I don't play the lottery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3,725
[PSP]
Members
8,131 posts
25 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Ah yes, the typical marketing post.

I have received 1 super container past the initial month of my account. My drop rate is significantly less than 1%.

Do you have a premium account?

Have you spent money on the game?

Many people think that, just because the odds of winning are, say, 3% that they should receive three wins every 100 tries. However, this is not the way odds work.

Each and every time a "try your luck" is chosen the odds of receiving a supercontainer is 3%. With drop chance probability it doesn't matter if it's the first try or the thousandth try, your odds for that try are exactly the same.

It's a fallacy to think that just because you have not received a drop in the last 100 tries that the next try, or the next, or even a hundred more, will guarantee you a drop.  You might receive a thousand containers and never receive a supercontainer drop. Conversely, you might do as I did a year ago and get five supercontainers in eight tries.

The overall probability of a drop with x probability in y tries can be calculated as 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

Therefore, if the "try your luck" drop probability is 3% and you chose this selection 100 times, your overall probability of getting at least one supercontainer in those 100 tries is 95%. These are high odds but the outcome still isn't certain. At 1.5% for a standard selection the probability of getting at least one supercontainer in 100 tries is 78%.

Edited by Snargfargle
  • Cool 2
  • Boring 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
2,154 posts
1,247 battles
40 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

Many people think that, just because the odds of winning are, say, 3% that they should receive three wins every 100 tries. However, this is not the way odds work.

Each and every time a "try your luck" is chosen the odds of receiving a supercontainer is 3%. With drop chance probability it doesn't matter if it's the first try or the thousandth try, your odds for that try are exactly the same.

It's a fallacy to think that just because you have not received a drop in the last 100 tries that the next try, or the next, or even a hundred more, will guarantee you a drop.  You might receive a thousand containers and never receive a supercontainer drop. Conversely, you might do as I did a year ago and get five supercontainers in eight tries.

The overall probability of a drop with x probability in y tries can be calculated as 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

Therefore, if the "try your luck" drop probability is 3% and you chose this selection 100 times, your overall probability of getting at least one supercontainer in those 100 tries is 95%. These are high odds but the outcome still isn't certain. At 1.5% for a standard selection the probability of getting at least one supercontainer in 100 tries is 78%.

My friend, I am a pharmaceutical development scientist. I understand the concept of odds and distributions of drops.

I'm amused that you seem to believe the drop rate is '3%' despite having no evidence whatsoever behind your assertion than a vague feeling based on your own experience.

Please read my post and understand my question.

A) What is the actual drop rate for super containers? - do we have something from WG telling us what it was?

B) Is the actual drop rate not uniform across accounts? I.e., does WG take into account our behavior when establishing the drop rate?

You continue to discuss the same tired old arguments that I have seen dozens of times. Then you trot out an 'explanation' which does not address my issue at all...and is the same thing that I have seen dozens of times.

There is a label for this kind of behavior. It's called a 'bot.' I begin to suspect that you are actually a paid worker for WG...

  • Funny 1
  • Boring 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
2,154 posts
1,247 battles
1 minute ago, Octavian_of_Roma said:

Lol, I guess we're all bots now. Beep bop beep bop. Pc load error. Beep bop

Have anything constructive to add?

Perhaps your thoughts on whether super container drops have a uniform drop rate?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Members
1,836 posts
9,429 battles
6 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Have anything constructive to add?

Perhaps your thoughts on whether super container drops have a uniform drop rate?

Nobody can answer your questions without pure speculation. 

So sure I'll try. I get 100% sc. You all get .01%. That is my guess. 

Edited by Octavian_of_Roma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
229
[WOLF9]
Members
802 posts
5,874 battles

Less concerned with numbers WG may never reveal than content of said "super" containers. It is feeling less 'super' than it is 'superlative' of late. If they felt they needed to reduce the rewards in SC's, so be it.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
642
[VW]
Members
2,446 posts
14,319 battles
42 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

My friend, I am a pharmaceutical development scientist. I understand the concept of odds and distributions of drops.

I'm amused that you seem to believe the drop rate is '3%' despite having no evidence whatsoever behind your assertion than a vague feeling based on your own experience.

Please read my post and understand my question.

A) What is the actual drop rate for super containers? - do we have something from WG telling us what it was?

B) Is the actual drop rate not uniform across accounts? I.e., does WG take into account our behavior when establishing the drop rate?

You continue to discuss the same tired old arguments that I have seen dozens of times. Then you trot out an 'explanation' which does not address my issue at all...and is the same thing that I have seen dozens of times.

There is a label for this kind of behavior. It's called a 'bot.' I begin to suspect that you are actually a paid worker for WG...

A. Data not shown (you claim you should understand the joke)

B. It no doubt is, simply watch any youtubers who get a supercontainer yielding ships every week, while you and i get 50 detonation flags, and prior to that got spotter plane mods. But of course this is opinion and not fact based because again, see response in A.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42
[SP3AR]
Supertester
213 posts
5,698 battles
42 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

 

A) What is the actual drop rate for super containers? - do we have something from WG telling us what it was?

B) Is the actual drop rate not uniform across accounts? I.e., does WG take into account our behavior when establishing the drop rate?

A: There is no official statement from wargaming confirming the drop rate of SC that I am aware of.

B: There was a reply by @LittleWhiteMouse that gave drop percentages of rewards inside Super Containers from quite some time ago that was accepted by the community (i want to say sometime in april, so its almost certaintly out of date). To answer your question though, there was no official wargaming statement on this one either. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,865
[WOLF9]
Members
8,842 posts
4,180 battles
15 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Does anyone have a link to where WarGaming has actually stated that this is the odds for each roll? Or is this just a case of people pulling a number from their but and thinking it's real?

IMO, the actual drop rate is much lower than 1%.

As far as I've been able to determine, they've never stated a drop rate categorically, only that TYL is about twice as likely. 

I've been collecting data for some time and this is what I've seen:

  • daily container (not TYL) - around 1.5.
  • TYL container - between 3.0 and 3.5%**

Small samples - especially of TYL - vary wildly, but as the number of data points increases, the incidence converges on these ranges.

** TYL rates are largely drawn from other studies.

 

15 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

.and is modified based on the users account history...

This and the rest of your post is arrant nonsense.

 

Edited by iDuckman
Updated for more recent data
  • Cool 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,865
[WOLF9]
Members
8,842 posts
4,180 battles
1 hour ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

You continue to discuss the same tired old arguments that I have seen dozens of times. Then you trot out an 'explanation' which does not address my issue at all...and is the same thing that I have seen dozens of times.

And you continue the same old tired rhetorical approach of stating a conclusion and challenging all comers to disprove it.  The burden, my friend, is on you to provide at least a smidgen of data to support your position.  Without that, your position isn't worth considering.  Which, as a scientist, I'm sure you know.

 

  • Cool 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
652
[PVE]
Members
1,698 posts
7,350 battles

Just opened a stockpile of 266 containers, had 6 Super Containers.....44 to 1 ?

Let me tell ya, they contained nothing to write home about, 100 Equal Speed Charlie London, 7 days Premium, 15k coal, 15k coal, 15k coal, 100 Zulu. Kinda meh in my opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3,725
[PSP]
Members
8,131 posts
1 hour ago, Judge_Doom said:

Just opened a stockpile of 266 containers, had 6 Super Containers.....44 to 1 ?

Let me tell ya, they contained nothing to write home about, 100 Equal Speed Charlie London, 7 days Premium, 15k coal, 15k coal, 15k coal, 100 Zulu. Kinda meh in my opinion.

That would be a 2.26% SC drop rate for your sample. Were any of these selected "try your luck"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3,725
[PSP]
Members
8,131 posts
Just now, pewpewpew42 said:

Well this is an enlightening exercise in asking for an answer and arguing about it. Brilliant.

That's pretty normal for Internet forums. Most people don't really want answers, just a confirmation that other people believe the same as they do. I really wish that more people would study a bit of philosophy and understand the difference between a philosophical argument, which tries to discover truth by using verifiable premises and logic to come up with sound conclusions, and a lay argument, which is more of a verbal knock-down, drag-out fight among people with fixed opinions.

  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42
[TBOW]
Members
297 posts
3,759 battles
5 hours ago, Renuz said:

so....we looking at ....

1% -3% drop rate for a super container.

AND THEN.

1% chance it will be a free ship...soooooo

you need about 100 super containers to get a free ship

So basically.....you need to earn about 7-10k containers to get a free ship??

My friend just over his 100th (you get an achievement for 1000) he got arizona I believe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
332
Members
1,195 posts

if I play every day for 3 weeks getting the 3 containers per day and take the TYL option for each awarded container, my own past experience tells me I will get 1 or 2 SC in that time, experience also tells me I may also get none or I may get 3 or 4.

 

however SC IMO are not what they once were, to the point I don't consider taking the TYL other than for the first crate of the day.

 

IF I recall correctly I have had 2 or 3 ships from SC via daily XP, the ships were nothing of any great note but they were at least FREE thus a bonus, I have drew consecutive SC on the same day once, and I have had weeks in which I have got 3 or 4 SC, just as I have had 3 or 4 weeks without a SC.

 

but my impression is the values of 1% and 3% respectively are reasonable ballpark values with obvious deviation either side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
696
[TDRB]
Members
2,550 posts
7,339 battles

I'll go for sometime without getting a SC then I will get 2 or 3 in a short period of time. I got 3 SC, 2 with ships, in a 4 week period.  The last was at the 1st of August. I could put on a tin foil hat and claim WG reduced the drop rate during the RN & Halloween missions but we have enough wild conspiracy theories already. We also have those that get upset by the content of their SC's.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×