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Counter_Gambit

More Resource Payout update

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I know in my last thread, I said I would update at 500 containers collected, and the count is now up to 625.

That's because @iDuckman started adding data points himself. He and I got it very close to 500. Just today, there was an additional 168 data points from @LT_Rusty_SWO, I just got done putting those in, shooting the count well past 500 as a result. So this may seem like it's late, but it really isn't... kind of. I still have some more data to add, this next set being from one of Rusty's clan-mates. That person shall remain anonymous at this time, mostly because I don't know who that data is from, only LT_Rusty does.

I would also like to thank @Doombeagle for what he did, even though he is no longer helping collect data. I also wish to apologize to you Doombeagle, I had to delete your data, because they were skewing the results.

Link to the spreadsheet: Here and also in my signature. Spreadsheet is always updating, so the count will certainly be higher than what I am posting below.

Anyway, here's the spread for 625 containers:

Collected/Average Per Container (Averages are rounded to nearest hundredth)
Coal: 321,600/514.56
Free Experience (FXP): 180,000/288
Equal Speed Charlie London (ESCL): 696/1.11
Hotel Yankee (HY): 96/0.15
November Foxtrot (NF): 270/0.43
Papa Papa (PP): 294/0.47
Zulu: 264/0.42
Juliet Charlie (JC): 267/0.43
Zulu Hotel (ZH): 246/0.39

Slot 2;
Appeared/"Appearance percentage" (percentage rounded to nearest hundredth)
Coal: 150/24.00%
FXP: 243/38.88%
ESCL: 232/37.12%

Slot 3;
Appeared/"Appearance percentage" (percentage rounded to nearest hundredth)
Coal: 29/4.64%
FXP: 117/18.72%
[HY: 32/5.12%
NF: 90/14.40%
PP: 98/15.68%
Zulu: 88/14.08%
JC: 89/14.24%
ZH: 82/13.12%]
Signal Flag (SF) Total [HY-ZH]: 479/76.64%


Occurrence of different combinations:
Coal/Coal/Coal: 29/4.64% <---Triple Coal
Coal/Coal/FXP: 26/4.16%
Coal/Coal/SF: 95/15.20%
Coal/FXP/Coal: 0/0.00%
Coal/FXP/FXP: 67/10.72% <---Double FXP
Coal/FXP/SF: 176/28.16%
Coal/ESCL/Coal: 0/0.00%
Coal/ESCL/FXP: 24/3.85%
Coal/ESCL/SF: 208/33.28%

So far, it still seems Coal only appears in slot 3, only under the condition that Coal also appears in Slot 2; an official call on that will occur after 1000 containers, which also happens to be when I will try to update on this next.

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5 minutes ago, Counter_Gambit said:

So far, it still seems Coal only appears in slot 3, only under the condition that Coal also appears in Slot 2

I suspect that the programmed Coal drop rate in Slot 3 is actually ~24% (like in slot 2), but because it's conditioned on Coal in slot 2, the actual appearance rate is what it is.  This has implications for the programmed drop rate of the others, but it's probably not worth going into.

 

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18 minutes ago, iDuckman said:

I suspect that the programmed Coal drop rate in Slot 3 is actually ~24% (like in slot 2), but because it's conditioned on Coal in slot 2, the actual appearance rate is what it is.  This has implications for the programmed drop rate of the others, but it's probably not worth going into.

 

Interesting hypothesis. If that is the case, ~24% rate, with condition that coal is slot 2, that would put it at ~5.76% appearance rate. My personal data set is closest at ~5.68%, with your personal data set being the furthest at ~3.51%; as it stands right now. 2% difference, not a bad margin of error. We'll see what happens further down the road. Especially when our personal data sets reaches a count of 500 and 1000.

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It's more likely to be 20% than 24%.

 

If you look solely at the set of containers which would be eligible for coal in the third slot, you're left with 150 containers, of which 19.33% had coal, 17.33% had fxp, and 63.33% had signal flags.

 

image.png.2e9ae6da34451220f44681622c5eaf3c.png

Edited by LT_Rusty_SWO

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4 minutes ago, LT_Rusty_SWO said:

It's more likely to be 20% than 24%.

 

If you look solely at the set of containers which would be eligible for coal in the third slot, you're left with 150 containers, of which 19.33% had coal, 17.33% had fxp, and 63.33% had signal flags.

 

image.png.2e9ae6da34451220f44681622c5eaf3c.png

Beautiful. Seeing the relation of Slot 2 and slot 3 in such a manner, is just astounding. May add this to the numbers myself.

Just for clarification: You did the same for FXP and ESCL as you did for coal right?

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9 minutes ago, Counter_Gambit said:

Just for clarification: You did the same for FXP and ESCL as you did for coal right?

 

Yep.

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Out of curiosity, did you also track how often a SC showed up after hitting the Resources button?

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You statistics guys are amazing.  This sort of exercise would give me a headache, but I'm glad you are willing to do it.  Thanks.

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1 hour ago, Counter_Gambit said:

Beautiful. Seeing the relation of Slot 2 and slot 3 in such a manner, is just astounding. May add this to the numbers myself.

Just for clarification: You did the same for FXP and ESCL as you did for coal right?

 

Here's a slightly cleaner presentation of the data.

image.thumb.png.0eb204b228b4073f4d46be1b1b271912.png

 

I suspect that the sample size, even at 625, isn't quite high enough yet to see the complete pattern. By 2000 containers, though, I think you're probably going to see a 25 / 40 / 35 split at slot 2, and then 20 / 15 / 65 (or 20 / 20 / 60) for C-C, 0 / 30 / 70 (or 0 / 25 / 75) for C-FXP, and 0 / 10 / 90 for C-ESCL.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bonfor said:

Out of curiosity, did you also track how often a SC showed up after hitting the Resources button?

 

I don't think that Ducky and Counter Gambit have gone that far yet, but over the past year I've requested 168 resource containers and received 165 resource containers and 3 supercontainers.

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20 hours ago, LT_Rusty_SWO said:

It's more likely to be 20% than 24%.

Yep.  .0464 / 0.24 = .19333.  I just pulled out the 24% number cuz it was in the ballpark. 

Actually, given the variance in this small a sample size, the programmed rates could be 25% and 20%.   Wouldn't surprise me at all.  Oh, I see that you already got there.  Great minds and all...

 

18 hours ago, LT_Rusty_SWO said:

I don't think that Ducky and Counter Gambit have gone that far yet, but over the past year I've requested 168 resource containers and received 165 resource containers and 3 supercontainers.

I track my SCs.   The Resources SC rate is on my summary page in the public spreadsheet.  We have yet to integrate your numbers there. 

Adding your 3/168 to my 4/232, we get -- ta dah -- 1.75%, well in line with the nominal 2% estimate for all non-TYL manually-collected containers.

 

Added:  Hmmm.  Now that I think about it, there was a large-scale SC drop analysis for standard vs. TYL containers about 8 months ago, incorporating quite a lot of data from @CLUCH_CARGO among others.  IIRC, the TYL drop rate was empirically estimated at 3.5%.  Standard half that.  Perfect!

We used it as a basis for a cost-value analysis of TYL.  Conclusion: TYL is a fool's game.

 

 

Edited by iDuckman
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2 hours ago, iDuckman said:

Yep.  .0464 / 0.24 = .19333.  I just pulled out the 24% number cuz it was in the ballpark. 

Actually, given the variance in this small a sample size, the programmed rates could be 25% and 20%.   Wouldn't surprise me at all.  Oh, I see that you already got there.  Great minds and all...

 

I track my SCs.   The Resources SC rate is on my summary page in the public spreadsheet.  We have yet to integrate your numbers. 

Adding your 3/168 to my 4/232, we get -- ta dah -- 1.75%, well in line with the nominal 2% estimate for all non-TYL manually-collected containers.

 

Added:  Hmmm.  Now that I think about it, there was a large-scale SC drop analysis for standard vs. TYL containers about 8 months ago, incorporating quite a lot of data from @CLUCH_CARGO among others.  IIRC, the TYL drop rate was empirically estimated at 3.5%.  Standard half that.  Perfect!

We used it as a basis for a cost-value analysis of TYL.  Conclusion: TYL is a fool's game.

 

 

 

... you probably don't want to look at my numbers for supercontainers from TYL, then. 9 SC from 115 TYL containers, or 7.8%.

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40 minutes ago, LT_Rusty_SWO said:

... you probably don't want to look at my numbers for supercontainers from TYL, then. 9 SC from 115 TYL containers, or 7.8%.

Already saw them.  Of the four combined data sets (your three and mine, though two never did TYL), the number is 9 of 148, or 6.1%.

Other aberrations have been reported, but in larger samples the drop rate converges below 4%. 

 

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