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_Marines

Insane average damage: Will Jean Bart be taken off the shop abruptly soon?

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1.thumb.png.ac48dc80c4ec10578b4d9ef99258b57b.png

(^Above: Jean Bart averages at 111k damage for her tier, vastly surpassing any other existing BBs.)

2.thumb.png.abdfe562699c0922ea55eb630f0391e5.png

(^Above: By win rate, Jean Bart is the second most OP battleship in any tiers, only slightly below Nikolai I.)

We know that WG doesn't think like players do. We may think the original Alsace wasn't actually that oppressive, or that the original Des Moines wasn't actually that underpowered. However, WG only looks at win rates and damages. If a premium ship "overperforms" according to these two metrics, WG takes it off from sale. A good example is Konig Albert. While community thinks she's an excellent ship for learning and by no means overpowered, WG considers her so according to stats and makes her unobtainable.

Currently Jean Bart, while just launched, is dramatically overperforming according to the two stats that WG looks at. (While 36 games don't seem a lot, in statistics, a random sample with a size of 30 or larger is already reflective of the hypothetical population, i.e. all possible Jean Bart games. Current stats based on these 36 games are already a consistent and reliable estimator of the population. Although this estimator is biased up, because early adopters tend to be players with better battle stats themselves.)

Three possible scenarios:

1) The ship is priced very high in the premium shop, but affordable in the Arsenal with coals. Hopefully a lot more players get the ship with coals, and her stats regress towards the mean. In this scenario, WG will keep the battleship for sale for a long time.

2) Jean Bart remains a niche ship among hardcore players, and the currently recorded stats stay. Whether we think the ship is op or not, or game-breaking or not doesn't matter. WG looks at win rate and avg damage and permanently takes the "overperforming" ship off the shop and the Arsenal, like Imperator Nikolai I.

3) Jean Bart's stats regress towards the mean like in scenario (1), but the sales is not a success in terms of cash revenue. So WG takes the ship off from sale with the intention to make her available in the future.

What do you think?

Edited by _Marines

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Are you kidding me? The ship has by now a few hundreds of battles in contrast to hundreds of thousands of battles for the rest of the ships. The battle sample is tiny.

It's like you see a soccer team in its first  match scoring 3-4 goals, then saying with absolute certainty that they are unbeatable for the rest of the season. 

I am not disputing the ship may be overperforming, but it is far too early.

Edited by warheart1992
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5 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

Are you kidding me? The ship has by now a few hundreds of battles in contrast to hundreds of thousands of battles for the rest of the ships. The battle sample is tiny.

It's like you see a soccer team in its first  match scoring 3-4 goals, then saying with absolute certainty that they are unbeatable for the rest of the season. 

I am not disputing the ship may be overperforming, but it is far too early.

This, that is a very small sample to work with as the early adopters are likely better players.

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Someone needs to take a statistics course. You are in luck though as there are some good ones for free on the internet. Go forth and educate thy self.

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The confidence interval would be very high on a p value of .01, but technically, he’s correct. 

Edited by Thornir
LOL. are you kidding me? You neg repped stats? Yer killin' me

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statistics are over rated...its OP its OP its OP.... if it was only like 1 battle it would have been WOP (sorry) Way OP!

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35 minutes ago, RipNuN2 said:

Someone needs to take a statistics course. You are in luck though as there are some good ones for free on the internet. Go forth and educate thy self.

With time passing on we will see who is truly clueless about statistics. You are lucky enough statistics is not essential for living. However, you should still try to use that one muscle while matters every now and then. It's a good exercise for you.

Edited by _Marines

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As of 7:09pm EST Jean Bart now has 46 battles and average damage of 97,881; the average damage dropped 14,000 point in 10 battles.  THE WORLD IS ENDING!

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You know, it is entirely possible the 36 games sample you're quoting here could be a single player?  Or maybe it's 5 players.  Or maybe 10 players.  How can you, with a straight face, try to say 36 games played by a VVVEEERRRYYY small cadre in any way reflects on the anticipated performance by the general population of 100's of thousands of players?  You're either trolling or significantly mentally deficient.

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41 minutes ago, Thornir said:

The confidence interval would be very high on a p value of .01, but technically, he’s correct. 

There are two things some are oblivious here.

First is that it's only reasonable to ignore a biased estimator if there is no theoretical basis. Using #2's example, if we analyst the soccer team players' individual performance parameters and conclude the team is likely to be average (i.e. no theoretical basis for the team to outperform), and then the team outperforms in the first few small examples, we can say it's likely the sample is biased and the team should perform average.

However, if the analysis indicates that the soccer team players' aggregate performance is significantly above average (i.e. there is theoretical basis), then when the team outperforms in the first few small examples, we cannot say it's just the sample being too small.

There is very strong theoretical basis in our case. In iChase's review, Jean Bart was a game-breakingly strong ship. WG claims to have later nerfed the ship a little (liking reducing reload consumable duration), but anyone can still claim the theoretical basis is there. For this reason, we cannot rule out the possibility that at least a part of the statistic's outperformance is not from the early adopter bias, but from the ship's own outperformance.

Two is that the earlier we can predict something, the more valuable the prediction is. We can of course predict a storm's wind speed, duration, and landing time on Florida with 99% confidence the day before it lands, but such prediction is worthless. Prediction of the storm 3 months in advance will have a much smaller confidence and a much wider range of possibilities, but this prediction has value.

7 minutes ago, ChronicallyChronic said:

You know, it is entirely possible the 36 games sample you're quoting here could be a single player?  Or maybe it's 5 players.  Or maybe 10 players.  How can you, with a straight face, try to say 36 games played by a VVVEEERRRYYY small cadre in any way reflects on the anticipated performance by the general population of 100's of thousands of players?  You're either trolling or significantly mentally deficient.

Dude, where the stats will ultimately regress to is determined by ship fundamentals. Jean Bart has a weak hull, but very high speed, accurate guns, and a reload consumable. The guns, as we already know from French BBs, are also high velocity, lol-penning. You are either foolish or significantly mentally challenged.

Edited by _Marines
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3 minutes ago, _Marines said:

There are two things some are oblivious here.

First is that it's only reasonable to ignore a biased estimator if there is no theoretical basis. Using #2's example, if we analyst the soccer team players' individual performance parameters and conclude the team is likely to be average (i.e. no theoretical basis for the team to outperform), and then the team outperforms in the first few small examples, we can say it's likely the sample is biased and the team should perform average.

However, if the analysis indicates that the soccer team players' aggregate performance is significantly above average (i.e. there is theoretical basis), then when the team outperforms in the first few small examples, we cannot say it's just the sample being too small.

There is very strong theoretical basis in our case. In iChase's review, Jean Bart was a game-breakingly strong ship. WG claims to have later nerfed the ship a little (liking reducing reload consumable duration), but anyone can still claim the theoretical basis is there. For this reason, we cannot rule out the possibility that at least a part of the statistic's outperformance is not from the early adopter bias, but from the ship's own outperformance.

Two is that the earlier we can predict something, the more valuable the prediction is. We can of course predict a storm's wind speed, duration, and landing time on Florida with 99% confidence the day before it lands, but such prediction is worthless. Prediction of the storm 3 months in advance will have a much smaller confidence and a much wider range of possibilities, but this prediction has value.

Dude, where the stats will ultimately regress to is determined by ship fundamentals. Jean Bart has a weak hull, but very high speed, accurate guns, and a reload consumable. The guns, as we already know from French BBs, are also high velocity, lol-penning. You are either foolish or significantly mentally challenged.

Yup.

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Untitled.thumb.png.fe4f6dbfd7eeec57fa50881feab1abbb.png

71 games now. One other way to look at it is by what Jean Bart's win rate will be 2 weeks from now. By then there will be a lot more battles and stats will stabilize:

1) Win rate > 55%: WG will likely take the ship off from sale.

2) Win rate roughly 53%~55%: This is likely WG's target win rate for Jean Bart. She will be a strong contender in the tier, but not so much that WG wants to take her off from sale.

3) Win rate roughly 50%~53%: I think players will likely welcome this outcome very much. Ship will always be up for sale.

4) Win rate <50%: WG will likely have to buff the ship.

Edited by _Marines

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This thread is almost as if someone is shilling for Wargaming to get people to spend lots of money on a ship that is very much like its tech tree equivalent.  

The ship has been out for the general player population less than 24 hours. 

Edited by Taylor3006

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4 minutes ago, Taylor3006 said:

This thread is almost as if someone is shilling for Wargaming to get people to spend lots of money on a ship that is very much like its tech tree equivalent.  

Darn. I should have phrased it in reverse: "Early players say Jean Bart is unsurvivable, should WG buff her immediately??" And then I will be banned for conspiracy to hurt WG's last quarter sales.:Smile_hiding:

Seriously no one needs a digital ship in life to be happy. If you are a fan of the ship and her history, you can still save up coals for her. That is, unless you believe (looks like most here do not) the ship will be taken off from sales. In that case, you will miss Jean Bart, but can still play other OP ships you already have in your port.

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1 hour ago, _Marines said:

Darn. I should have phrased it in reverse: "Early players say Jean Bart is unsurvivable, should WG buff her immediately??" And then I will be banned for conspiracy to hurt WG's last quarter sales.:Smile_hiding:

Seriously no one needs a digital ship in life to be happy. If you are a fan of the ship and her history, you can still save up coals for her. That is, unless you believe (looks like most here do not) the ship will be taken off from sales. In that case, you will miss Jean Bart, but can still play other OP ships you already have in your port.

I actually have no opinion on the ship. Have no interest in the French or battleships generally.  
Up to just a few hours ago the only ones with the Bart were testers and I am only assuming they are better players. I could be wrong... That said, there just isn't enough data to be making blanket assumptions about the ship. You could very well be right, hard to know. What bugs me is the title of your thread, you may cause new players or those that lack common sense, a bit of anxiety about it being pulled from the shop and they may spend money/coal on a ship that may turn out to be crap in the hands of the general player population. 

I hardly think the ship is going to be removed from sale based on this limited data. Just so much horse crap that it seems to a player like me, that you are only trying to drive sales of a ship like a bootlicker for Wargaming. 

Course that is only based off of this one thread. Using limited data to make claims is pretty stupid. 

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The Dev's have said that they like a few months, preferably six, of performance before they decide on any performance.  Among other things, players have to have time to play against her and learn her weaknesses.  It may have been mentioned, but other JB threads point out that many players are hesitant to buy her because there may be other ships coming out.  Even LWM weighed in with that sentiment.  that would make the players who have purchased her an interesting group.  We don't know if they were purchased with cash or coal/steel.  if it was coal/steel, there are not a lot of players with that amount just laying around.  I could easily jump to the conclusion that they must be pretty high performing, or at the very least, pretty particular about the ships they purchase.

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Having played a couple games in her, there's no way her stats stabilize above the Musashi. She's not bad, but nowhere near as easy to use.

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5 hours ago, delp5117 said:

The real question here is how OP is Musashi?

It shouldn't be a surprise.  They simply took Yamato's AA refit away, made the guns a bit less accurate, and then have the audacity to put this Tier X ship in Tier IX.  Musashi has Tier X 460mm power, Tier X HP, Tier X Armor, but in Tier IX.  It's the one Tier IX ship in the game that can look at any of the Tier X BBs and not give a f--k about any of their armor and still do good AP Penetrations, even Citadels in their defensive profiles.  It's a d*mn Tier X ship in Tier IX.

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19 minutes ago, HazeGrayUnderway said:

It shouldn't be a surprise.  They simply took Yamato's AA refit away, made the guns a bit less accurate, and then have the audacity to put this Tier X ship in Tier IX.  Musashi has Tier X 460mm power, Tier X HP, Tier X Armor, but in Tier IX.  It's the one Tier IX ship in the game that can look at any of the Tier X BBs and not give a f--k about any of their armor and still do good AP Penetrations, even Citadels in their defensive profiles.  It's a d*mn Tier X ship in Tier IX.

All true.

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Intelligent people have more money then dumb people. Especially the experienced lot of players in this game... You're clearly seeing a good player bias. I think she'll end up somewhere between Musashi and the next one down. her guns ARENT THAT GOOD. She also catches fire like crazy, and takes big hits from the side... it's not the easiest ship to play. How can a tier 8 with a reload booster and SLIGHTLY more accurate guns end up beating a musashi? Not gunna happen.

Jean bart's salvos are usually nothing to write home about. The reload is 26s, it's the volume of shells that brings the damage up for good players.

BTW- I'm not sure it's better then the missouri... It's not as accurate, and it can't bowtank as well. BUT... it has the HE option. In that case, a Jean bart and missouri 1vs1 bow tanking fight, jean beat would probably win if she timed her reload boosters to force the missouri to not bother repairing the fires. I've noticed that the reload booster on bart REALLY HELPS KILLING DDS!! If you have expert loader, does the reload booster stack with that? jesus, you could switch to HE really fast. I was using the reload booster to switch to HE and hitting DDs earlier tonight, definitely effected the matches.

Edited by HorrorRoach

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3 hours ago, delp5117 said:

All true.

Even better, I still remember people, upon seeing Musashi's Sigma will be lower than Yamato's, instantly called Musashi trash.

Yes, Yamato is better than Musashi, but it's not like a Yamato player can ignore a Musashi, either.  It's still IJN 460mm on Musashi and only another Yamato-class can AP Bow Pen / Bow Citadel another Yamato.

 

Though Musashi is Tier IX and should see Tier X all the time, she occasionally gets a bone thrown her way as a Tier IX and gets to smack around Tier VII ships.

-----------

As for JB, I expect the stats to be good early on as early adopters tend to have a good clue what to do with a new ship.

 

Pulled from the shop?  LOL!  When Musashi is still in the Arsenal as a Tier IX ship? :Smile_veryhappy:

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11 hours ago, warheart1992 said:

Are you kidding me? The ship has by now a few hundreds of battles in contrast to hundreds of thousands of battles for the rest of the ships. The battle sample is tiny.

It's like you see a soccer team in its first  match scoring 3-4 goals, then saying with absolute certainty that they are unbeatable for the rest of the season. 

I am not disputing the ship may be overperforming, but it is far too early.

Nothing against what you say, I agree.

Just made me laugh when I remembered the same happened with the T-61 and we didn't see that ship for months! :Smile_teethhappy:

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