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Taichunger

Ship Choice Variety: T5,7,8,10 plus Bonus Math Proof Gremy Really is Evil

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So I downloaded the ship average numbers for the NA server for the quarter ending Sept 29 from here. I wanted to see whether, as many of us have contended, WG's destructive, unpopular decision to restrict the T4 MM was choking ship variety at T5 because players were refraining from playing ships that do not uptier well. I explored the issue from several angles...

TRIVIA NIGHT: The numbers are in the spoiler. What is the most played ship at T5? Guess now... (#s for tier, ship, #0fplayers, #0fgames)

Spoiler
5 Omaha 30998 406643
5 New York 28306 304364
5 Koenig 17739 217882
5 Nicholas 18398 209444
5 Koenigsberg 16989 202985
5 Kongo 17431 169953
5 Bogue 15895 169446
5 Furutaka 15226 151218
5 Iron Duke 13557 148954
5 Giulio Cesare 16517 144859
5 Mutsuki 13355 142915
5 Texas 18961 141293
5 Emerald 13342 128351
5 Emile Bertin 11643 117342
5 T-22 11071 116038
5 Bretagne 11576 110293
5 Minekaze 10259 104971
5 Kirov 11097 102563
5 Zuiho 8707 87514
5 Jianwei 8103 80529
5 Kamikaze R 3461 64843
5 Oktyabrskaya Revolutsiya 7799 63733
5 Podvoisky 6591 60142
5 Acasta 8912 43012
5 Okhotnik 4895 33157
5 Kamikaze 1957 29126
5 Murmansk 4615 25816
5 Fujin 1630 24465
5 ARP Kongo 5585 21070
5 Gremyashchy 2818 18786
5 Marblehead 2305 16593
5 ARP Hiei 3182 11305
5 ARP Kirishima 3179 11019
5 ARP Haruna 2469 8823
5 Krasny Krym 937 4340
5 Marblehead Lima 388 1971

Looking at the issue from several angles: there were 3,695,758 games played that quarter at T5. The top 10 ships played by number of games accounted for 2,125,748, or 57.5%. The top fifteen ships by number of games accounted for 2,771,687, or 74.99%. 

For T7, where the MM is usually thought to be better, total games were 4,501,474, the top ten ships accounted for 2,398,773 (53.2%), the top fifteen, for 3,118,620 (69.2%)

For T8, another tier screwed by the MM, the respective numbers are 59.2% and 74.3%. T8 looks like T5, not like T7.

"But wait, Taichunger," you say. "There are 36 ships at T5, but 46 at T7."

Sure, but at T7 there are more ARP ships than at T5, and T8 has but one. In fact T7 and T8 have pretty much the same number of ship choices once you eliminate the ARP ships (the T8 numbers include no Alabama ST games).

So I also looked at the number of games played by potential ship choice. Since there were 36 ships at T5, I looked at the top 18 ships. They accounted for 83.5% of all games. At T7, 23 ships accounted for 86.6%. The non-chosen ships included CVs, and premiums that are unpopular at T7, like the Z-39 and DoY. At T8, 18/39 choices  accounted for 80.5%. I have no idea what that means because the presence of rarely played premiums like Flint and Marblehead Lima as well as  the ARP ships screws that up.

It seems that the impression some of us had formed that the T4 MM restriction had choked off variety is more or less correct, though not strongly definitive. T5 play is concentrated in fewer ships than T7 and about the same as T8, a tier widely considered screwed by the MM.

TRIVIA NIGHT: What is the most played ship at T7? Guess first....

Spoiler

Atlanta, 317,362 games

TRIVIA NIGHT: What is the most played ship at T8? Guess first....

Spoiler

Cleveland, 661,986 games out of a total of 4,939,813 at that tier

As a kind of control, I looked at T10, which confused the issue even more. There are only 23 ships as choices. The top ten ships by games accounted for 76.99% of all games, the top 15 for 91.00%. T10 play is highly concentrated on a few ships. The argument that a one tier MM would cause variety to collapse is quite true at T10. Indeed, you can see that WG's reluctance to fix the T8 MM is because without T8 ships there would be much less variety in high tier matches and it would become glaringly obvious even to the least reflective thinker that T10 ship gameplay is dull and repetitive (which is why I have given up T8-10 play almost completely).

It must be pointed out -- in order for a one tier MM to work at T10, T10 has to have a lot more premiums. Like 15 more at least. Get on it, WG. The Arms Race isn't going to save T8, because at T10 there were 4.3 million games played, but at T8, 4.9 million. If you pull T10 ships out of the queue to do Arms Race, even more T8s will have to be uploaded to T10 Random matches to make them possible.

On the other hand, you could argue that T10 is already so unvarying that a one tier won't matter because it won't change anything for T10. Variety is already too limited even with a two tier MM.

TRIVIA NIGHT: What is the most played ship at T10? Guess first....

Spoiler

Des Moines. So yep, at each of these tiers, the most played ship is a US cruiser. Reflects NA server bias? Dunno. 

So I then decided to look at another number, which was how often did people who played the ship, play it? For example, at T5, 18,961 people played Texas at least once, generating a total of 141,293 Texas games (My Lyon thanks you for the food, guys). That works out to 7.45 games per Texas player. 

That is actually below average for that tier. Most ships are played 9-10 games per player at T5. A couple stand out. Konig was played 12.28 times per player, and Omaha, 13.11. Which ship was played most obsessively? If you think for a minute, you know it is the Kami R, whose 3,461 players played it 64,843 games, or 18.73 times per player, the shameless seal clubbers. Right behind it is -- you guessed it  -- Kamikaze, at 14.88 games per player. The T7 Light Cruiser Giulio Caesare was played 8.77 games per player. Its rep as a seal clubber is overblown, and players have become well aware of its weaknesses when uptiered. I parked mine, got tired of taking cancer damage from CVs, and just play the reliable Konig on those rare occasions I play T5

For T7 the numbers are wildly different, likely because to get to T8 from T7 requires a lot more grinding than to go from T5 to T6. Here are the top ten by games played:

TRIVIA ANSWER 13.25
Colorado 17.53
Gneisenau 19.44
Scharnhorst 13.74
New Orleans 12.24
Lyon 18.82
Akatsuki 17.73
Mahan 16.25
Fiji 16.04
Yorck 13.84

These are normal, some ships like Boise were over 20, since they could grind out a free Nuevo De Julio if they played enough (the mission was time limited). Ships that uptier well like Gneis, Colorado, Fiji, Akat, GM (15.82) and Lyon are played more, when players go to them. Total games for NOrleans are high, but clearly people played it as little as they could. At T7 premiums were generally played 6-9 times per player, with a few exceptions.

Which was played by more people, Belfast or Hood? That's 5,959 and 6,287 players, respectively. Belfast had about 15% more games, but more people enjoyed a Hood game at  least once.

It's difficult to say what these numbers of games per player mean, because they are spoiled by grinding and by missions. But fundamentally, players at T5 play more games in a ship when it uptiers well, like Konig and the Kami girls. Bogue and Konigsberg were also played more than 11 times per player, which seems to be the magic number at that tier for ships that can uptier better.

I wouldn't have thought Omaha would not uptier well, but the 13.11 games per player may reflect the fact that it is (a) fun (b) uptiers well (c) gets killed so fast extra games are needed to grind to Dallas (some players probably needed to redo that grind too). As a check, the clearly better Murmansk was played only 5.59 times by 4,615 players. So I'm going with C on that but loyal Omaha players may correct me.

Oh yeah, about that Gremy. 2,818 people played 18,786 games in it, or 6.66 games per player. Clearly Gremy really is Satan's Little Imp.

Edited by Taichunger
  • Cool 4

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I'm really not fond of the reasoning you used for this. 

Also heck no to T10 premiums.

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16 hours ago, BlailBlerg said:

I'm really not fond of the reasoning you used for this. 

Also heck no to T10 premiums.

I'm not either, but I don't know a better one. 

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22 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

I'm not either, but I don't know a better one. 

I think you're not being careful enough with your givens or counter-reasoning to yourself as a check. Honestly this reads very basely and pushing a point, as opposed to studying the data. Though, better than most, you do have a lot of data. 

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so.. with the exception of the atlanta, more people play tech tree ships? Seems logical.

 

But, since more often people are playing a ship which leads directly to researching another ship, are they playing that ship a lot because 'its fun and uptiers well' or a lot because it doesnt and thus they need to play it more to get past it.

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Interesting analysis.Not sure I agree with some of the conclusions, but I most certainly will say No T10 Premiums! Please!

Let the people earn T10, not buy it (abhor the offering of Salem for that reason, expensive as it is).

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I didn't read everything because I'm lazy but what is the time frame on the #s. Since many bought the Atlanta to do the ARP missions a couple of years ago and that would skew that figure. 

NM mind I see you chose a recent 3 month sample. Atlanta surprises me. Then again I play my Boise and NdJ equally since they are the same ship. What were the combined #s of those two because I bet I'm not the only one that turns to those two ships for credit and exp farming.

I also see your saying ARP ships screw it up. How is that? A Kongo is a Kongo. I would just pool all ARP ships of the same type with their tech tree ships. At tier 8 the Atago and Takao are basically the same so pool them.

That would make the Kongo the most played ship at tier 5 at 31,846 games.

The Krispy Kreme at 937 games played sends a message on pay to lose ships. :Smile_hiding:

Okay finally clicked your link and I see the first number is players and the second is games played.

Edited by Mainerd

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Are your numbers are PVP only or do they include PVE games as well. I ask because I pretty much only play my Atlanta and Tirpitz in PVE because I want to play them a certain way that tends to not work well in randoms. But practically all of my IJN ships are PVP only because I enjoy their playstyle more there.

Just a curiosity.

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4 hours ago, Taichunger said:

Oh yeah, about that Gremy. 2,818 people played 18,786 games in it, or 6.66 games per player. Clearly Gremy really is Satan's Little Imp.

I played 93 games on the Gremy. I fail to see why you call it a little devil though?

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4 hours ago, BlailBlerg said:

I think you're not being careful enough with your givens or counter-reasoning to yourself as a check. Honestly this reads very basely and pushing a point, as opposed to studying the data. Though, better than most, you do have a lot of data. 

You may think as you please, but concrete criticisms would carry more weight. I mean, i looked at the issue in several ways and came to the conclusion that the effect isnt very great.

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20 minutes ago, Bill_Halsey said:

I played 93 games on the Gremy. I fail to see why you call it a little devil though?

666

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3 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

666

Lol. Remember the reasoning for restricting T4 MM spread. It's to prevent the poor seals from being clubbed. A way of trying to retain beginning players.  You will have to admit it's no fun for a T3 player to be sucked into a T5 match. T10 premiums? One of my criteria of getting a premium is this: How well does it do uptiered?  A T10 premie will be packed full of gimmicks that it will be either so OP it will seal club T8's or be so gimped that it would be a waste of money. Note that a great number of premiums are in T8.  Some of them actually do well uptiered.

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3 hours ago, Taichunger said:

You may think as you please, but concrete criticisms would carry more weight. I mean, i looked at the issue in several ways and came to the conclusion that the effect isnt very great.

Much agreed! If I can sort out my thoughts on why I feel that way I'll let you know. =) 

Already, you're doing better by looking at some data. 

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9 hours ago, BlailBlerg said:

I'm really not fond of the reasoning you used for this. 

Also heck no to T10 premiums.

The only real reason to be against T10 premiums is the fact they'd probably cost $150 each

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I got a Gremy in a super container a couple of weeks back... already replaced the Fujin as my favorite seal clubber at Tier 5... may end up taking serious time away from my Clemson.

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Not sure why anyone would be surprised by the prevalence of Atlanta. With IFHE the 5" gun is superior to the 6" gun due to increased ROF. 

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