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Torp Hit % - Why it's a meaningless stat

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Compare a Shimakaze to a Khabarovsk. The latter has fast, stealthy, short range torps that will only be used in yolo situations. As such, the hit rate will be higher. That doesn't mean the Khab is a better torpedo boat than the Shima. 

 

Or compare the playstyle of two Shima players. 

The first one routinely charges BBs in the first 5 minutes of the game and unloads all their torps, thus yielding high hit rates but dying almost immediately. 

The second player scouts, contests caps, falls back when necessary, and spams torpedoes consistently throughout the 20 minute duration of the game. 

The second player will have a lower hit rate, but will be more influential over the course of a game and will likely accrue more damage. 

 

Torping is like fishing. You can't force a fish to bite, but the more casts you can make the higher your chances of catching something. 

 

 

Also worth noting...

People decry the Shima's low torp hit % compared to other DDs. Please understand that the Shima has the HIGHEST torpedo DPM of any T10 DD in the game. If the detection of Shima torps was reduced, the ship would be unquestionable OP.

Shima (Type 93 mod 3) torpedo DPM is:

77% higher than Gearing and YY

82% higher than Z-52

106% higher than Groz

Omitted Khab and Harugumo for obvious reasons. 

 

 

 

Edited by Mortal_Marsupial
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It has a higher theoretical DPM but I would say a lot of it is pointless because of the detection range

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8 minutes ago, Preteen said:

 Do things go in a similar way with shell hit ratio?

 

Great question! Thanks for tossing me a softball. :Smile_honoring:

While we used the fishing analogy for torping, main battery gunnery is like archery. 

With fishing, all you can do to catch more fish is to increase your probability that they'll bite (i.e. cast more often in the right areas)

With archery, your ability to hit the target is more dependent on your own aiming and ability to predict the movement of your target. 

 

With that said, staying alive for longer and putting yourself in the right positions is still paramount. 

Edited by Mortal_Marsupial

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Most stats tend to be ultimately meaningless, including the much vaunted win rate. Truth be told you can't really judge a player's skill until you personally run some battles with them.

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Just now, Hanger_18 said:

It has a higher theoretical DPM but I would say a lot of it is pointless balanced because of the detection range

 

FTFY

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I use so many torps for area denial that it'd be all but impossible to find out what percentage of my actual aimed torps hit.

 

I only concern myself with hit rate on ships with low range torps, such as Fujin and Kami, because at 7km with two tube launchers, you arent denying very much, and you expect to be hitting things.

 

The other thing that screws up hit rate is cruiser and BB torps, more so the cruisers. You generally only get one set per side, and for me personally, most of my torp hits come from the second and/or third set of torps fired.

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Just now, Mortal_Marsupial said:

 

FTFY

The shima is not a good ship as is, so I wouldn't call it currently balanced. You're more likely to land multiple YY torps . How can you be a torpedo boat when your ships biggest flaw is in the torpedoes?

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What gets me is you set just the right angle, and just before they hit, the ship blows up, and your tops hit the wreck. Doesn't that count as a miss, since they didn't hit an active ship?

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5 minutes ago, KingCakeBaby said:

Most stats tend to be ultimately meaningless, including the much vaunted win rate. Truth be told you can't really judge a player's skill until you personally run some battles with them.

Uhh, no. Stats are not random; win rate is not (entirely) luck. How you play influences your stats, either positively or negatively.

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2 minutes ago, Mortal_Marsupial said:

 

Great question! Thanks for tossing me a softball. :Smile_honoring:

While we used the fishing analogy for torping, main battery gunnery is like archery. 

With fishing, all you can do to catch more fish is to increase your probability that they'll bite (i.e. cast more often in the right areas)

With archery, your ability to hit the target is more dependent on your own aiming and ability to predict the movement of your target. 

Range and ship type/class/nation comes into effect as well. For instance those who enjoy German BBs might have less % because of the dispersion and lower number of main guns. You will also have a yoloing BB and cruiser have a higher hit % than those who know when to wait to push to exploit an opening..

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Just now, Hanger_18 said:

The shima is not a good ship as is, so I wouldn't call it currently balanced. You're more likely to land multiple YY torps . How can you be a torpedo boat when your ships biggest flaw is in the torpedoes?

Not a good ship? It was the most used DD in ranked this season, and historically one of the most popular in the game.

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3 minutes ago, KingCakeBaby said:

Range and ship type/class/nation comes into effect as well. For instance those who enjoy German BBs might have less % because of the dispersion and lower number of main guns. You will also have a yoloing BB and cruiser have a higher hit % than those who know when to wait to push to exploit an opening..

 

Very true.

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6 minutes ago, Hanger_18 said:

The shima is not a good ship as is, so I wouldn't call it currently balanced. You're more likely to land multiple YY torps . How can you be a torpedo boat when your ships biggest flaw is in the torpedoes?

 

This Shima is one of the best T10 DDs, but it has a slightly higher skill floor than its counterparts. Hence why many people struggle in it. 

Edited by Mortal_Marsupial

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7 minutes ago, Th3KrimzonD3mon said:

I use so many torps for area denial that it'd be all but impossible to find out what percentage of my actual aimed torps hit.

When you spew torps out left, right and centre for area denial, your individual stats for torpedo hit percentage become meaningless, even if you knew what they were. They've ceased to even matter to you any more, since you no longer care what, whether, or if they hit (apart from avoiding TK, of course).

To take things to a ridiculous extreme - If you had a ship that could spew out torps at the rate an Atlanta on 2 health with BFT and AR spews out shells, you could hypothetically have a massive impact on the game through area denial, and through steering ships on narrow paths and forcing them to give broadside to gunnery or colleagues' torps which killed them, without EVER landing a single hit yourself.

I don't generally fire area-denial torps myself, because it's a black art I don't yet fully grasp; most of my torps are launched with the intent of hitting a target I'm locked on, or the hope of catching a destroyer in smoke (sometimes with spectacular success). But from time to time I'll give it a try, and that's why torpedo hit rate is generally a statistic I will ignore completely.

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Just now, Dianeces said:

Uhh, no. Stats are not random; win rate is not luck. How you play influences your stats, either positively or negatively.

Negative sir. I can put my 19pt shima captain into my Kamikaze R or Iwaki Alpha and play nothing but that ship for the next hundred battles and I guarantee I could get my WR into the high 50s or mid 60s. Or I could have a monster 200k damage game in my MO and still lose the match due to the miscalculation of players on my team. Or have that game in a GK where no matter how careful my aim is my shells just won't go where I want them to. There's a lot of factors that determine a win or loss, and your individual skill as a player only makes up a small percentage of them. Even the best player in the game might only carry a team a small fraction of the time. There is also a lot you can do to artificially inflate individual statistics, and for some the population that image is important enough that they take those steps.

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I mean, you can say basically the same thing about any stat.

A high survival rate on its own might be evidence of a good player who manages the strengths of his ship well, chooses wise engagements and wins fights, or a scrublord who sits at the back of the map complaining to his team.

A high MBHR might be evidence of good aim, or of suicide rushes, or of tending to play ships with good aim.

High average damage might be evidence of a good player, or it might be evidence of someone who wastes the entire battle burning down Nelsons and Conquerors, without significantly affecting the match.

 

Using one stat alone, a good player is indistinguishable from a stat farmer. But we don't need to look at stats individually, do we? Survival rate on its own might be full of uncertainty, but when paired with average damage, average frags and win rate, we have enough information to distinguish the unicum from the camper. MBHR might be worthless on its own, but when paired with common ship choice, kdr and survival rate we can see when a player is cheesing their way to a higher stat. And torp rate, when paired with survival rate, average damage and win rate becomes a very informative stat that can tell you a great deal about the playstyle of a particular player. Like all things in life, it depends on context.

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2 minutes ago, senseNOTmade said:

I mean, you can say basically the same thing about any stat.

A high survival rate on its own might be evidence of a good player who manages the strengths of his ship well, chooses wise engagements and wins fights, or a scrublord who sits at the back of the map complaining to his team.

A high MBHR might be evidence of good aim, or of suicide rushes, or of tending to play ships with good aim.

High average damage might be evidence of a good player, or it might be evidence of someone who wastes the entire battle burning down Nelsons and Conquerors, without significantly affecting the match.

 

Using one stat alone, a good player is indistinguishable from a stat farmer. But we don't need to look at stats individually, do we? Survival rate on its own might be full of uncertainty, but when paired with average damage, average frags and win rate, we have enough information to distinguish the unicum from the camper. MBHR might be worthless on its own, but when paired with common ship choice, kdr and survival rate we can see when a player is cheesing their way to a higher stat. And torp rate, when paired with survival rate, average damage and win rate becomes a very informative stat that can tell you a great deal about the playstyle of a particular player. Like all things in life, it depends on context.

 

Absolutely. You have to look at how the pieces fit together. 

Unfortunately, I too often see people citing a single stat line to prove a point. 

Your comment really strikes the larger issue at hand. Namely, people mishandling statistics to push a narrative. 

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1 minute ago, Mortal_Marsupial said:

Your comment really strikes the larger issue at hand. Namely, people mishandling statistics to push a narrative. 

Sometimes I think that is the only reason statistics exist.

Not just in WOWs

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2 minutes ago, KingCakeBaby said:

Negative sir. I can put my 19pt shima captain into my Kamikaze R or Iwaki Alpha and play nothing but that ship for the next hundred battles and I guarantee I could get my WR into the high 50s or mid 60s. Or I could have a monster 200k damage game in my MO and still lose the match due to the miscalculation of players on my team. Or have that game in a GK where no matter how careful my aim is my shells just won't go where I want them to. There's a lot of factors that determine a win or loss, and your individual skill as a player only makes up a small percentage of them. Even the best player in the game might only carry a team a small fraction of the time. There is also a lot you can do to artificially inflate individual statistics, and for some the population that image is important enough that they take those steps.

Hello, I would like to introduce you to a friend of mine called Mr. Small Sample Size. If you were able to consistently post 200k damage every time you played the Missouri, you would have an extraordinarily high win rate. Nobody is saying that luck does not play a part in a single battle, but the more you play, the more that luck balances out on both sides, leaving just your contributions to be evaluated. When you check the stats for the best players, there is an extremely strong positive correlation between average damage per game, kills per game, and win rate. This is because consistently playing better leads to more wins over time. There are going to be games that you cannot possibly win no matter how well you play; conversely, there are going to be games that you cannot possibly lose even if you were AFK. The trick, then, is to play well enough in the remainder of the matches to tip those from losses into wins.

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I am seeing the same when playing Tashkent at the moment. I have 2% hit rate with torpedoes, which by any standards would be abysmal.

Whenever I enter a cap  that could be contested, or know there is an enemy within 10km I tend to fire one or two tubes between cycling my guns. Some times I hit, most of the time I don't.

The whole point however is that you miss the shots you don't take.

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14 minutes ago, Mortal_Marsupial said:

 

This Shima is one of the best T10 DDs, but it has a slightly higher skill floor than its counterparts. Hence why many people struggle in it. 

Why would you play a shima when the YY exists? Torps, are arguably better, and the rest of the ship is undoubtedly better in every way. Shima has a ever so slightly edge in concealment maybe a knot or so in speed. But nothing that outstrips the YY.

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3 minutes ago, Hanger_18 said:

Why would you play a shima when the YY exists? Torps, are arguably better, and the rest of the ship is undoubtedly better in every way. Shima has a ever so slightly edge in concealment maybe a knot or so in speed. But nothing that outstrips the YY.

 

Well, I won't argue that the YY is a fantastic ship. And I'd agree that it's better than the Shima in several aspects. 

Of the ships that utilize torpedoes primarily, I'd rank the YY first, the Shima and Z-52 a close second, and the Gearing third.

Edited by Mortal_Marsupial

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1 minute ago, Mortal_Marsupial said:

 

Well, I won't argue that the YY is a fantastic ship. And I'd agree that it's better than the Shima in several aspects. 

Of the ships that utilize torpedoes primarily, I'd rank the YY first, the Shima and Z-52 a close second, and the Gearing third.

But that's what I mean, the shima is a pure torpedo boat that doesn't have the best torpedoes. And the third launcher is basically there just to close the gaps since a ship can turn into them well before impact.

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24 minutes ago, Mortal_Marsupial said:

 

Great question! Thanks for tossing me a softball. :Smile_honoring:

While we used the fishing analogy for torping, main battery gunnery is like archery. 

With fishing, all you can do to catch more fish is to increase your probability that they'll bite (i.e. cast more often in the right areas)

With archery, your ability to hit the target is more dependent on your own aiming and ability to predict the movement of your target. 

 

With that said, staying alive for longer and putting yourself in the right positions is still paramount. 

 I think along the same lines. My success* as a torpedo focused DD is not directly tied to my torp hit % but my success in gun focused ships is generally in some correlation with my MBH percentage.


*winning the game

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