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Ensign_Cthulhu

Random Thoughts from Deep R'lyeh: A short note on cumulative probability.

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With reference to RN mission drops and similar past (French BB) and future (???) events.

Let us say, for simplicity of mathematics, that your chance per crate of a successful special drop is 10%; that is, a probability of 0.1.

Your probability over 10 drops is NOT 100%, rather it is 1 minus (the chance of failure over ten drops).

The chance of failure, with probability of success of 10%, is 0.9, and all these chances are multiplied together as every chance is (assumed to be) independent of the last; i.e. opening more crates does not change the odds per crate.

That's 0.910, or 0.349 (to three significant figures). Call it 35% failure rate after 10 crates or about 65% chance of success. And that's for ONE success. Then you have to start all over again.

Certainty of success is mathematically impossible, but if certainty were represented by a probability of success of 99.9% you would need 66 chances at 10% success rate each. That's a lot of crates and a lot of cash to spend, and even then there is that trolling one-tenth of one percent.

 

The people (including me) who have multiple in-game unlocks or all the unlocks from a small number of bought crates have been very lucky indeed, because I'm pretty sure that success rate is NOT as high as ten percent, and the assumption that future results do not depend on past results may be incorrect in all sorts of ways I do not know.

I should also mention that in the Indianapolis Marathon I got NO unlocks, despite winning almost every crate I could get without already owning the Indianapolis, and every crate I could get from Indianapolis-related missions after, AND bought five Freedom containers for ships and giggles. So RNGesus was not with me there.

Edited by Ensign_Cthulhu
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So, you’re saying the 2x RN DD I got for free is winning the lottery?  :cap_haloween:

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5 minutes ago, Mahrs said:

So, you’re saying the 2x RN DD I got for free is winning the lottery?  :cap_haloween:

Depending on those unpublished odds, yes.

I hope with every crate for a T7 or T8 RN tech tree DD, but I'm already resigning myself to the possibility that I peaked early and will have no more successes. I MIGHT buy a crate or two toward the end of 0.7.10 if it means having enough sovereigns to cash in on the fact that I already own Warspite; I have plans for the resultant doubloons.

Edited by Ensign_Cthulhu

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I'll just grind the tree when it comes out and save myself from the Math headache.

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1 minute ago, RobertViktor68 said:

I'll just grind the tree when it comes out and save myself from the Math headache.

That's exactly what I intend to do. I'm thankful for the ability to skip the T5 and only drive her for fun when I want to, and for the shortened grind on the T6 (and the silver I won't have to spend on hulls and upgrades), but this is one line I'll be taking from square one (or in this case square 2; the Medea's tier). 

At some stage I will probably go back, finish the Friant and get the extra XP I need to unlock the TIII/IV French battleships, but that is a much lower priority right now.

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Personally I stopped caring about the boxes.

The only constant in them that matters are the Sovereigns and after each Directive the Guineas.

While the unlock missions can be welcome, the RNG, the silly drop chances and the high cost of the boxes  for a flip of a coin discourages me. 

Besides, with the XP requirements for lower tiers being reduced, speeding through a line has never been easier.

Edited by warheart1992

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The dice have no memory

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10 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

While the unlock missions can be welcome, the RNG, the silly drop chances and the high cost of the boxes  for a flip of a coin discourages me. 

Besides, with the XP requirements for lower tiers being reduced, speeding through a line has never been easier.

Absolutely, especially where tech tree ships are concerned. Premium ships (the unlocks available in the US event) were a different matter, and I took a calculated risk there towards the end.

1 minute ago, mofton said:

The dice have no memory

Physically, yes. Online, not necessarily so. (I am not alleging that this is the case with WG.) Then the probabilities get trickier.

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I've decided to never purchase a crate again unless it's to start collecting pieces of a collection. The idea of gambling away real money to get a chance at something I'll be handed anyway is silly. 

Dont get me wrong, I spent money on crates this go around, two sets of 5. I also earned every possible crate and spent all my sovereigns on crates from the Arsenal only to get the tier 5 out of 20 -30 crates. I'm calling that good enough and qont be purchasing anymore as it's just not worth it.

I also hate to be this guy, but, I find it unfair that some random person can pull all 4 missions having never spent a dime on the game where as another that has spent hundreds, or even over a thousand in the last 3 years, doesnt get any guarantee of pulling anything. Yeah, I know... "entitled", but at this point the less you spend the more you actually get.

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7 minutes ago, Skuggsja said:

I find it unfair that some random person can pull all 4 missions having never spent a dime on the game where as another that has spent hundreds, or even over a thousand in the last 3 years, doesn't get any guarantee of pulling anything.

I know where you're coming from, but the flipside of that is that some of the people who never spend a dime on this game simply CANNOT, either because their budget doesn't allow it or they are close to minimum playing age and their parents won't allow it. Or both. So I think it's fair that the luck falls to the free-to-play brigade sometimes. They want to help out some of the people who can't buy it for themselves.

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9 hours ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

I know where you're coming from, but the flipside of that is that some of the people who never spend a dime on this game simply CANNOT, either because their budget doesn't allow it or they are close to minimum playing age and their parents won't allow it. Or both. So I think it's fair that the luck falls to the free-to-play brigade sometimes. They want to help out some of the people who can't buy it for themselves.

I agree with that fully and dont mean to take away anyone's chance of winning anything. I just feel that there should be a bit of a fail safe if you purchased containers. Maybe for every 10 you buy your guaranteed at least the lowest mission even if it's a constant repeat or something.

I really do hate griping about this but the disappointment is very real.

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