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pikohan

Eighteen Months of Trying My Luck

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It's that time again! It's been eighteen  months since I started recording TYL container pulls and here are the current results! Once again, here is my spreadsheet with the raw data now broken up by year, and here is a graphic summing it all up:

fGrJSCB.jpg

2017

containers 414
flags 277 (66.9%)
economic 81 (20.3%)
camo 37 (8.9%)
super 16 (3.9%)

 

2018 (up to jul 8)

containers 347
flags 232 (66.9%)
economic 74 (21.3%)
camo 31 (8.9%)
super 10 (2.9%)

 

cumulative (2017 and 2018 YTD)

containers 761
flags 509 (66.9%)
economic 158 (20.8%)
camo 68 (8.9%)
super 26 (3.4%)

 

I'm leaving out the other accounts this time because QQMoore hasn't played much recently and I haven't played the ASIA account much recently either. Instead, I broke up the data by year because I wanted to see if the distribution of types had changed across time, but for the most part it hasn't.

Flags (sets of 4) still represent almost two-thirds of TYL containers, but I'm starting to suspect that the distribution of flags is not equal. With tens of datapoints for each flag, it does seem like say, Victor Limas are rarer than November Echo Settesevens, which is a bit odd.

Econ (credits, FXP, and now coal) made up a slightly less consisent one-fifth of pulls, with most of it going to lots of 750 FXP. This will have to change now that Coal is becoming part of the rotation, but there isn't nearly enough data to even suggest how much Coal we should be getting... that should be clearer at 24 months!

Camo (sets of 2) came in a very consistent nine percent of containers. These would be better if they came in sets of more than two, but as it is I think they are almost as bad as credits. The types of camo you can get are supposed to change after 7.6, but I haven't gotten any since then.

And super containers! The rate of getting super containers still seems to be about three percent, but the distribution of stuff in them seems to have been tweaked.

2017

super containers 16
special mods 8 (50.0%)
[edited] (common and rare) 4 (25.0%)
camo 3 (18.8%)
doubloons 1 (6.3%)

 

2018 YTD

super containers 10
camo 3 (30%)
flags (common and rare) 2 (20%)
special mods 2 (20%)
FXP 1 (10%)
premium time 1 (10%)
ship! 1 (10%)

 

So while my drop rate for super containers has been a little less this year (most likely due to luck rather than a change in drop rate), I'm willing to say that the contents have definitely been better: I even finally got a ship, though that is again most likely due to luck rather than a change in ship drop rate.

I would mainly attribute the increase in super container quality to the decrease in the number of special mods, which are still mostly garbage save for one or two. While this is a small sample set since we are only dealing with the stuff inside super containers, there is some evidence that the drop rate for special mods has decreased as the sampled percent took a huge drop from 50% to 20%. 

tl;dr seems to be fewer special mods in super containers in 2018. Could just be lucky this year though :Smile_hiding:

See you at 24 months!

Edited by pikohan
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Hmmmmm spreadsheets and tables :drool:

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3 minutes ago, pikohan said:

It's that time again! It's been eighteen  months since I started recording TYL container pulls and here are the current results! Once again, here is my spreadsheet with the raw data now broken up by year, and here is a graphic summing it all up:

fGrJSCB.jpg

2017

containers 414
flags 277 (66.9%)
economic 81 (20.3%)
camo 37 (8.9%)
super 16 (3.9%)

 

2018 (up to jul 8)

containers 347
flags 232 (66.9%)
economic 74 (21.3%)
camo 31 (8.9%)
super 10 (2.9%)

 

cumulative (2017 and 2018 YTD)

containers 761
flags 509 (66.9%)
economic 158 (20.8%)
camo 68 (8.9%)
super 26 (3.4%)

 

I'm leaving out the other accounts this time because QQMoore hasn't played much recently and I haven't played the ASIA account much recently either. Instead, I broke up the data by year because I wanted to see if the distribution of types had changed across time, but for the most part it hasn't.

Flags (sets of 4) still represent almost two-thirds of TYL containers, but I'm starting to suspect that the distribution of flags is not equal. With tens of datapoints for each flag, it does seem like say, Victor Limas are rarer than November Echo Settesevens, which is a bit odd.

Econ (credits, FXP, and now coal) made up a slightly less consisent one-fifth of pulls, with most of it going to lots of 750 FXP. This will have to change now that Coal is becoming part of the rotation, but there isn't nearly enough data to even suggest how much Coal we should be getting... that should be clearer at 24 months!

Camo (sets of 2) came in a very consistent nine percent of containers. These would be better if they came in sets of more than two, but as it is I think they are almost as bad as credits. The types of camo you can get are supposed to change after 7.6, but I haven't gotten any since then.

And super containers! The rate of getting super containers still seems to be about three percent, but the distribution of stuff in them seems to have been tweaked.

2017

super containers 16
special mods 8 (50.0%)
[edited] (common and rare) 4 (25.0%)
camo 3 (18.8%)
doubloons 1 (6.3%)

 

2018 YTD

super containers 10
camo 3 (30%)
flags (common and rare) 2 (20%)
special mods 2 (20%)
FXP 1 (10%)
premium time 1 (10%)
ship! 1 (10%)

 

So while my drop rate for super containers has been a little less this year (most likely due to luck rather than a change in drop rate), I'm willing to say that the contents have definitely been better: I even finally got a ship, though that is again most likely due to luck rather than a change in ship drop rate.

I would mainly attribute the increase in super container quality to the decrease in the number of special mods, which are still mostly garbage save for one or two. While this is a small sample set since we are only dealing with the stuff inside super containers, there is some evidence that the drop rate for special mods has decreased as the sampled percent took a huge drop from 50% to 20%. 

tl;dr seems to be fewer special mods in super containers in 2018. Could just be lucky this year though :Smile_hiding:

I got a ship in a super container the other day.  I don't even remember what it was.  Nothing I will play.

People really need to move on from their obsession with getting ships in super containers.  It's so rare that you get a ship, and even rarer that you get one you can actually use. . . it's pretty much just a trick.

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This is what @pikohan does when he should be working.

 

I need the other things in those daily crates too much to be able to do TYL. I'd have gotten a LOT more SC's, it seems.

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18 minutes ago, TheDreadnought said:

it's pretty much just a trick.

I don't really disagree... I just like a) getting a thing I couldn't otherwise get by normally playing, b) something permanent (ie not a consumable)

 

14 minutes ago, Th3KrimzonD3mon said:

I need the other things in those daily crates too much to be able to do TYL. I'd have gotten a LOT more SC's, it seems.

Yeah, I'm the opposite; I don't need anything from the other crates... like they give out too many consumables from events for me to use them all :Smile_teethhappy:

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You forgot you got Mutsu in 2017.

I got a SC today.

I have been pulling cammo and flag crates from last 2 months.

I got a whopping 100 flags.

But hey, that's what I was pulling for flags with some cammos!

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36 minutes ago, dEsTurbed1 said:

You forgot you got Mutsu in 2017.

No, that was this year. I did confuse myself a bit between 2017 and 2018 while making the post, but I think it's corrected in all the places :Smile_honoring:

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29 minutes ago, pikohan said:

No, that was this year. I did confuse myself a bit between 2017 and 2018 while making the post, but I think it's corrected in all the places :Smile_honoring:

Ok sir..

Just shows me how impatient I am for that 3%.

lol.

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